Fantasy Golf Predictions

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Farmers Insurance Open

Published

2 years ago

January 22, 2024

Golficity

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Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open

Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Preview

We told you it would take something record-breaking to win The American Express in benign conditions….we just hadn’t envisioned that it would be a 20-year-old amateur that accomplished it!

Nick Dunlap, a 300/1 longshot with the sportsbooks before the off, confounded the history books to become the first amateur to win on the PGA TOUR in more than 30 years – the last? A certain P.Mickelson, and he’s gone on to enjoy a pretty decent career by anybody’s measure.

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Although Dunlap’s victory has not come completely out of left-field – he’s the reigning U.S. Amateur champion and a former U.S. Junior Amateur winner, after all – few would have backed the 20-year-old before the start.

But a quality performance from tee-to-green, plus nerves of steel in whole new territory for him on Sunday, means that the Alabama boy becomes the first reigning U.S. Amateur champion to win on the PGA TOUR since Tiger Woods. Lofty boots to fill indeed.

It should be noted that Dunlap had some assistance – Sam Burns’ game going to pieces down the closing stretch to play the final two holes in +4, but even so that should not detract from the extraordinary nature of Dunlap’s achievement.

***Remember, due to the NFL championship games on Sunday, the Farmers Insurance Open is played Wednesday-Saturday – don’t leave your drafts until Thursday!***

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

We can almost bet on it that Nick Dunlap wasn’t top of mind for most fantasy players and gambling fanatics.

Hats off to the kid, but it was Scottie Scheffler who we had our eyes on and he ended up T17 and not much else to show for it.

We’re also fist to admit when it was a bad week, which we are now – but Torrey has always been a place we’ve done well, so onward to San Diego it is…

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2024 Farmers Insurance Open Field

This event generally welcomes a strong field, and the 2024 edition is no different with a stack of OWGR top-20 stars heading to Torrey Pines.

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The defending champion, Max Homa, will lead the way ahead of a stack of studs with plenty of course form to call upon: Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Jason Day and Justin Rose amongst the others.

Patrick Cantlay and Sahith Theegala have been less frequent visitors but are major contenders nonetheless, while Keegan Bradley, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im and Eric Cole are some of the other classy attractions.

And, as mentioned, an invitation will be extended Dunlap’s way – but will he take it after experiencing the greatest week of his life?

This Week’s Course Preview

This is another split course rotation week – although this one’s got a bit of bite.

Torrey Pines’ North Course hosts one of the opening two rounds, and while there’s not a great deal to say about it, it’s vital that the players shoot a low number here – it plays, on average, around three-to-four strokes easier than the South.

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It’s a short 7,258 yard Par 72 with four Par 5s and only 42 bunkers, with receptive Bentgrass greens that pose little in the way of trouble.

The South Course, meanwhile, is a whole different animal. Hosting one of the two opening rounds, but three and four exclusively, Torrey Pines South has previously hosted the U.S. Open – that offers a clue to its complexity.

A mammoth 7,765 yard Par 72, not only is the South Course long but it also features some narrow fairways in places, 3.5 inch rough, plenty of sand and small Poa Annua greens, which tend to run bumpier the longer the day goes on.

This is the sort of venue where finding 65% or more of fairways, 70% or more GIR and a decent putting week can be enough to contend – no heroics required.

Just six of the South Course’s holes averaged under par in 2023, with four of them the Par 5s – that shows the necessity of breaking par on the longer stretches. The 505-yard, Par 4 twelfth remains one of the toughest holes on the PGA TOUR rotation.

Weather Forecast for San Diego, CA

A cool and breezy week is expected in this part of California.

Wednesday dawns cloudy and windy at 10mph or so, with a top temperature of 60 degrees not exactly vintage golfing weather.

The temperatures start to creep up thereafter – 62 degrees on Thursday and Friday could be followed by 70 on Saturday, although the latter comes with the trade-off: the wind could hit 13mph or harder on the final day of action.

Thankfully, aside from some forecast rain on Monday, the actual four days of golf should hopefully be precipitation-free.

SAN DIEGO WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Farmers Insurance Open

Four of the top-six players on the leaderboard in 2023 took the opportunity to put a score on the board at the North Course in their opening round.

Max Homa took full advantage, and while a round of 68 doesn’t sound that impressive, compared to the struggles of those on the South Course it was a decent start.

Homa’s next 36 holes on the South read 70-71, so the tournament was wide open with Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im and Sam Ryder very much in the mix.

But it was all change during the final round, as Homa and Keegan Bradley played rounds at the South Course that were eight strokes better than the field average – their 66s seeing them scorch clear.

Bradley went bogey-free, but Homa managed to plug birdies at 16 and 18 to secure a two-shot advantage and yet another PGA TOUR title in the state of California.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Farmers Insurance Open this Week

The American Express is a tough old nut to crack from a DFS perspective, but the Farmers Insurance Open is much more agreeable with its tried and tested methodology of drafting picks. Therefore, let’s act accordingly.

PGA $600k Pitch & Putt: The biggest prize fund of the week, this contest costs $20 to enter but offers up a world of opportunity – $200k to first place and 35 prizes of $500 or better sets the scene.
PGA $200k Drive the Green: If you prefer to drop down to $10 an entry, this contest will fit the bill and still offers a selection of handsome cash prizes – not least the $25k jackpot.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Max Homa. Luke List, Patrick Reed. Marc Leishman. Justin Rose. Jason Day. Jon Rahm.

The list of the most recent winners of this event is instructive, in that all – to some or lesser degree – can be considered elite players. Four of the group has won majors, the other three have top-tens in the majors to their name, and that’s because the South Course really does require quality through the bag.

Given the length of the test, you have to conclude that extra distance off the tee is an advantage – that’s generally been the case, even if Reed and last year’s T3 man Collin Morikawa are exceptions to the rule. But they are elite in other areas of their game, so as a minimum look for guys who average 300+ yards off the tee over the course of a season.

But there’s another metric worth noting. On the South Course, three of the Par 4s measure 200+ yards, the Par 5s can be tackled in two by those accurate from the same distance, and even some of the approach shots into Par 4s are in the region of 200 yards. Quality from this range is vital.

You’ll need to scramble well too, while reliable putting on Poa Annua greens – not a skill that all possess – is another key weapon in the armory.

Innisbrook, home of the Valspar Championship, is our favorite correlating course, with its long-range approaches into small Poa greens.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

Top Tier Pick # 1

Max Homa (Odds: 11/1, FPPG: 106.8, Salary: $10,100)

A player that has already won two different tournaments twice (the Fortinet and Wells Fargo), we have no qualms backing the king of Poa Annua to make it a hat-trick this week.

A flusher from tee-to-green, Homa took his time getting used to proceedings at Torrey Pines, but he’s since grasped the nettle with a T9, a T18 and of course that incredible win here 12 months ago – in isolation, his final round on the South Course was one of the best you would have seen last season.

Everything about Homa’s game, but most notably his exceptional ball-striking, screams champion. This year, the majors await. First, a defense of his Farmers Insurance Open title beckons.

Key Stats (2023):

SG: Putting – 6th
Scoring Average – 10th
SG: Tee-to-Green – 15th

Top Tier Pick #2

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 89.0, Salary: $8,900)

A player that tends to go somewhat under the radar, few have been in such consistently fine form these past six months or so as Keegan Bradley.

A winner of the Travelers Championship in June, Bradley has put in a stack of solid showings – the best of them, ironically, was his playoff defeat to Grayson Murray last time out at the Sony Open.

Every element of his game was bang on the money at Waialae, and so given that Torrey Pines also serves his tee-to-green specialism nicely – he’s three top-fives here in his last six trips – we have to be confident that he will deliver once more.

There’s always concerns about the flat stick, but Poa is generally where Bradley finds his happy place on the greens.

Key Stats (2023):

Approaches from 200+ Yards – 15th
Rough Proximity – 24th
Scoring Average – 24th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Sepp Straka (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 78.5, Salary: $8,600)

Selection for Europe’s Ryder Cup team was a real mark of trust in the ability of Sepp Straka, and it’s likely that the Austrian will now consider himself to be a top-echelon golfer as a result.

Straka won the John Deere Classic and followed it up with T2 at the British Open in the summer, and some solid showings on the DP World Tour were followed by T2 at the Hero World Challenge in December and a solid enough T12 at the Sentry, where he gained +1.65 strokes on the field with his ball striking.

A formline of 16-32-MC-13 warrants improvement, but improving is all that Straka has been doing in the past year or so – his long-range approach play will stand him in excellent stead this week.

Key Stats (2023):

SG: Approach – 23rd
Total Driving – 25th
Approaches from 200+ Yards – 51st

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Luke List (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 97.9, Salary: $7,800)

Trying to crack the enigma that is Luke List is something of a thankless task.

But at least the two courses give him what he wants: a chance to let rip with the big stick, allowing his elite approach play shine. And he even putts….not well, but slightly better, on Poa Annua greens historically.

It’s a combination that saw him beat a high-class field here in 2022, and given that he won the Sanderson Farms Championship as recently as October should ensure some residual confidence remains.

Key Stats (2023):

Par 4 Scoring Average – 7th
SG: Off-the-Tee – 9th
Approaches from 200+ Yards – 37th

Low-Tier Pick

Akshay Bhatia (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 78.7, Salary: $7,500)

We drafted Akshay Bhatia last week, and were disappointed that he missed the cut despite playing some good golf over the opening three days.

In truth, he should be able to ring more out of his talent in a more technical test like the Farmers, where his long, straight driving and quality long-range approach play should get extra milage against the field.

Born and bred in Los Angeles, Bhatia will be no stranger to Poa Annua greens – hopefully his recent putting improvements continue on home soil….

Key Stats (2023):

Par 4 Scoring Average – 7th
SG: Off-the-Tee – 32nd
SG: Approach – 33rd

Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open

Adam Schenk (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 69.7, Salary: $7,300)

It’s been a slow and steady start to 2024 for Adam Schenk.

But we’re happy to take a chance on a player who played the final months of 2023 in superb style, so a missed cut at The American Express is of no concern – and even in T29 at The Sentry, he actually gained strokes on the field from tee-to-green.

Another ball-striking specialist who has the length to succeed at Torrey Pines, Schenk’s high finishes at correlating courses like TPC Southwind and Innisbrook also catch the eye.

Key Stats (2023):

Approaches from 200+ Yards – 28th
Scoring Average – 45th
Driving Distance – 54th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open

Kevin Yu (Odds: 140/1, FPPG: 54.4, Salary: $7,200)

Regular readers of our previews will remember that we were incredibly sweet on Kevin Yu at roughly this time a year ago – he was serving up ball-striking numbers of the gods.

But then injury, surgery and the loss of form that accompanies such things derailed his progress, leading to a string of missed cuts.

But look who’s back: Yu actually topped the leaderboard at The American Express on Sunday, and his tee-to-green numbers for his measured rounds on the Stadium Course really are a sight to behold – +3.42 on the field ball-striking, including an above-average performance for both driving distance and accuracy, confirms the Yu train is back on track.

Key Stats (2023):