Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The American Express

2023 American Express Fantasy Sleeper Report

These are halcyon days for longshot backers!

A week after Chris Kirk obliged at 60/1, Grayson Murray powered his way to victory at the Sony Open – rewarding those who had wagered on him with a handsome 400/1 payday.

He hadn’t exactly looked likely of late, although a win on the Korn Ferry Tour in September at least suggests his confidence was high – and it should be said that he played superbly well at Waialae, running out a deserved champion via a one-hole playoff against Keegan Bradley and Byeong-Hun An.

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As if all those prices weren’t mind-boggling enough, we now head to the daddy of them all for sleeper champions: The American Express.

A quick glance through the history books of this tournament reveals that, since 2017 alone, we’ve seen Hudson Swafford (70/1 and 250/1), Si-Woo Kim (55/1), Andrew Landry (500/1) and Adam Long (1000/1) win this event at stratospheric odds!

Could we see a repeat this year? Potentially, although it should be said that the top end of the betting market is very strong this year: Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Tom Kim and Justin Thomas just five of those that any potential outsider will need to overcome.

The format certainly aids their cause. The American Express is played across three different courses for its opening trio of rounds, and if that wasn’t enough of a driver of variance, there’s also the presence of dozens of amateurs and celebrity hackers on course to deal with.

Two of the courses – La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament Course – are a doddle, with wide landing areas, minimal rough, few hazards and receptive, nice and steady Bermuda greens. 

The other, the Stadium Course is used for one of the opening rounds and the final 18 holes, and this is where business gets a little more difficult – there’s 90 bunkers, water in play on seven holes, slightly longer rough and slightly smaller greens; this is the layout, as is typical with a Pete Dye design, that will likely cause the players the most problems.

But even so, Jon Rahm won with a score of -27 here last year, and with a benign weather forecast it will likely take something similar in 2024 too.

But who will out-birdie the rest? Well, here’s five players on our American Express shortlist that have half-a-chance:

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for The American Express here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2024)

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