Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The American Express

2023 American Express Fantasy Sleeper Report

These are halcyon days for longshot backers!

A week after Chris Kirk obliged at 60/1, Grayson Murray powered his way to victory at the Sony Open – rewarding those who had wagered on him with a handsome 400/1 payday.

He hadn’t exactly looked likely of late, although a win on the Korn Ferry Tour in September at least suggests his confidence was high – and it should be said that he played superbly well at Waialae, running out a deserved champion via a one-hole playoff against Keegan Bradley and Byeong-Hun An.

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As if all those prices weren’t mind-boggling enough, we now head to the daddy of them all for sleeper champions: The American Express.

A quick glance through the history books of this tournament reveals that, since 2017 alone, we’ve seen Hudson Swafford (70/1 and 250/1), Si-Woo Kim (55/1), Andrew Landry (500/1) and Adam Long (1000/1) win this event at stratospheric odds!

Could we see a repeat this year? Potentially, although it should be said that the top end of the betting market is very strong this year: Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Tom Kim and Justin Thomas just five of those that any potential outsider will need to overcome.

The format certainly aids their cause. The American Express is played across three different courses for its opening trio of rounds, and if that wasn’t enough of a driver of variance, there’s also the presence of dozens of amateurs and celebrity hackers on course to deal with.

Two of the courses – La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament Course – are a doddle, with wide landing areas, minimal rough, few hazards and receptive, nice and steady Bermuda greens. 

The other, the Stadium Course is used for one of the opening rounds and the final 18 holes, and this is where business gets a little more difficult – there’s 90 bunkers, water in play on seven holes, slightly longer rough and slightly smaller greens; this is the layout, as is typical with a Pete Dye design, that will likely cause the players the most problems.

But even so, Jon Rahm won with a score of -27 here last year, and with a benign weather forecast it will likely take something similar in 2024 too.

But who will out-birdie the rest? Well, here’s five players on our American Express shortlist that have half-a-chance:

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Si-Woo Kim – 50/1 – Here’s a nice number about the former champion Si-Woo Kim, whose lowly T42 finish at the Sony Open belies what was otherwise an excellent ball-striking effort.

The Korean has been finding fairways and flushing his irons and wedges so far in 2024, so a switch to greens he evidently likes – his formline in this event reads 22-11-1 since 2020 – should hopefully bring about the improvement in putting that his game needs right now.

If it does, we know that Si-Woo has what it takes to handle the rigors of pro-am golf.

Taylor Montgomery – 60/1 – What a curious start to 2024 it was for Taylor Montgomery at the Sony Open.

He ranked second for SG: Putting on the entire PGA TOUR last season, and yet at Waialae he only managed to scrape +0.06 on the field with the flat stick.

More impressive was the mammoth +1.81 he gained on approach, and it doesn’t take Columbo to work out that if that form with iron and wedge holds – and his putting returns to anywhere near his previous highs – this is a guy who can really challenge for silverware.

Taylor Pendrith – 80/1 – With three top-10s and a T15 in his last five starts, Taylor Pendrith heads to California in superb form.

And there’s no reason to expect the train to slow down at a layout with a bit more room off the tee than Waialae, where the Canadian still finished T10 despite the tight agronomics.

Hitting his irons and wedges sweeter than he has at any other point in his PGA TOUR career, Pendrith can use the easy-peasy greens of PGA West and La Quinta to post another big finish this week.

Erik van Rooyen – 90/1 – EVR is on a heater right now, in a low-key kinda way.

He’s gained strokes on the field on approach in six of his last seven recorded starts, and in one that wasn’t he won the WWT Championship.

The South African seems to have confidence coursing through his veins from tee-to-green, and the fact he finished T6 here a year ago suggests that Van Rooyen appreciated the straightforward nature of the greens.

He still can’t chip, but in theory that won’t matter too much on this trio of layouts.

Nick Taylor – 100/1 – Already the winner of a pro-am event at Pebble Beach, there’s plenty for Nick Taylor fans to feel bullish about this week.

Okay, he doesn’t have the best of records in this tournament. But that can be the variance of such unusual conditions, and besides Taylor has performed well in the desert over at the Phoenix Open as a useful primer.

The Canadian gained a mammoth +1.60 strokes on the field on approach at the Sony Open, and if he takes that form to the American Express this week he will surely set up a stack of birdie looks.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for The American Express here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2024)

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