Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The American Express

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 American Express  

The American Express Fantasy Preview

As sports bettors and fantasy gamers, we tend to look for narratives to explain the unlikely and unpredictable things that happen in the sports we love.

It’s the only thing we can cling to when 400/1 shots like Grayson Murray are winning quality events like the Sony Open, but perhaps the genesis for that victory came last year in a heated players’ meeting in the midst of the LIV Golf fallout and concerns over how the PGA TOUR was being run.

As reported by UK newspaper The Telegraph, after Murray had questioned the position of Jay Monaghan, he became involved in a war of words with Rory McIlroy, who retorted ‘just play better, Grayson.’

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He replied with a fruity riposte of his own, but it’s possible that lit a fire under Murray – he posted two top-10s on the PGA TOUR last summer and has since won on the Korn Ferry Tour.

But the Sony Open win is undoubtedly the biggest of his career, particularly as he showed great resolve under pressure to win a three-man playoff ahead of Keegan Bradley and Byeong-Hun An.

Murray needed a clutch birdie at the last just to check in to the playoff, and then he repeated the feat on the first extra hole – curling home a 38-ft putt to land his second PGA TOUR title and his first in seven years.

He’s played his way into the rest of the Signature Events in 2024 – a welcome boost for a guy who has experienced some pretty dark lows, as he was willing to share in his post-win press conference.

But he’s on the up and up now, and gets a chance to go again as the PGA TOUR rolls around to California for The American Express.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Tough showing for the boys last week in Hawaii.  Not much to boast or brag about, so let’s move it up to California and bounce back this week!

2024 American Express Field

Normally something of a jolly on the West Coast, a strong field will tee it up at PGA West and La Quinta, with Scottie Scheffler headlining alongside Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and reigning U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark.

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Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Rickie Fowler and Tom Kim will be looking to find some better early year form, while the likes of Justin Thomas, Jason Day and Sungjae Im add even further depth of quality to proceedings.

Will Zalatoris will continue his comeback from injury and surgery, as will Daniel Berger – making his first PGA TOUR start since 2022 as he battles back from a back problem.

Si-Woo Kim leads the former winners in the field, although one player who won’t be in California – for obvious reasons – is defending champion Jon Rahm.

Remember, this is a pro-am event, with each professional paired with a celebrity, sportsman or woman, entrepreneur or anybody else fortunate enough to score an invite.

This Week’s Course Preview

The American Express is one of those events that used a rotational course setup, with the players taking on three different courses (one round at each), before the cut is made and they return to the TPC Stadium Course at PGA West for the final round.

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This is undoubtedly the most interesting of the three layouts. Generally the toughest, Pete Dye was in pretty forgiving mood when he designed the Stadium Course, but even so there’s a stack of bunkers, water is in play on seven holes, the rough is slightly higher than the other two venues and the Bermuda greens are of a small-ish size.

The Tournament Course, designed by Jack Nicklaus, used to be the middle layout of the three in terms of difficulty, although it actually played as the easiest of the trio last year. This is a classic resort layout perfect for a pro-am event: wide fairways, generous greens, few hazards, so there’s very little to worry about for players of all abilities.

The third course is found at the La Quinta Country Club, and like the Tournament Course this really is a doozy for the top pros – wide open fairways and receptive greens lend themselves to low scoring, as was the case when Adam Hadwin became the eighth member of the 59 club here back in 2017.

Remember, all of the layouts are made more forgiving in a bid to accommodate the amateurs, so think slower-than-average greens and agreeable pin positions to facilitate a fair test for all.

Weather Forecast for La Quinta, CA

A warm enough, relatively breeze-free week awaits in La Quinta, which will be music to the ears of all involved.

Thursday could be the pick of the four days, with sunny spells and temperatures of up to 73 degrees more than pleasant enough.

It looks set to cloud over on Friday and Saturday, but again it will remain warm enough and wind speeds of 3mph are ideal for low scores.

As for Sunday, there could be some rain in the offing – but again, temperatures will sit around the 70 degree mark and there looks likely to be little wind to speak of.

LA QUINTA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from The American Express

Despite having previously described the American Express as a putting contest, albeit in expletive-laden fashion, Jon Rahm put his distaste to one side to clinch a second title at PGA West.

He and Davis Thompson became embroiled in a fascinating shootout, with the pair making the most of the La Quinta-Nicklaus-Stadium rotation to charge into a four stroke, 54-hole lead over the field.

Thompson, the big-hitting rookie, showed no signs of relenting despite the swagger of his playing partner, and it was only the fast start of Rahm – who made birdies at both the opening holes – and a key birdie at 16 for the Spaniard that would see him lift the trophy by a single shot at -27.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The American Express this Week

You probably don’t need us to tell you that a pro-am event played across three courses is not ideal DFS material! Even so, if we stick to the plan and the player profile we’ve identified below, we should hopefully be in the hunt for some prizes this week.

• PGA $175k Drive the Green: A $5 ticket to win a top prize of $25k seems like a fun way to spend a few dollars, and of course there’s other payouts to win too in this standout contest.
• PGA $60k Birdie: You can enter up to 20 lineups in this $3 contest if you have a few different variations you want to play, with a jackpot of $6,000 an appetizing carrot that’s been dangled.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Any pro-am event played over a split course rotation is likely to throw up known unknowns, to coin a phrase.

The shenanigans of a playing partner like Bill Murray can only serve to upset the concentration of a pro trying to put a string of birdies together, while the possibility of a draw bias, given the varying nature of the host courses, cannot be overlooked.

But while Rahm has been quick to write off this event at a putting shootout, it’s worth noting that there are a few angles in that can help to identify targets for our draft.

There really does seem to be a long history of strong drivers doing well in this event. Rahm and Thompson are both big and strong off the tee, while Hudson Swafford – another two-time winner of this tournament – also thrived with the big stick in hand.

Patrick Cantlay, the 2021 runner-up, is also elite off the tee, while previous champions Si-Woo Kim and Adam Long are fairway-finders par excellence; the latter, you may recall, breaking a long-standing PGA TOUR record for consecutive fairways found last year.

You can even go further back to find the likes of Jhonattan Vegas, Brian Gay and Joason Dufner in the winner’s circle here – to a man typically very good off the tee.

Of course, with easy greens you want to be attacking from the short stuff, and the fair-tempo to the putting surfaces – designed to make life manageable for the amateurs – means that even ordinarily weak putters will feel more at home this week.

There’s not a great deal of correlating action to call upon, although the Phoenix Open seems to be a decent primer. Also played in the desert, a number of players have featured prominently there and here, while a stack of Arizona university graduates have won a previous iteration of this event or in Phoenix – desert form and history matters, it seems.

Given the consistent nature of the forecast, it might be worth drafting players starting out with the easier two courses – Tournament and La Quinta – on their rotation. A fast start has often been vital in this event, while back-to-back rounds at the Stadium Course can act as a useful eye-opener.

And, of course, it will likely take a score deep into the -20s to get the job done this week. Only those able to make birdie after birdie should be on your shortlist.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The American Express   

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season (2024)

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