Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Sony Open

2023 Sony Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Cometh the hour, cometh the slightly unexpected man!

You’d have scored sportsbook odds of around 120/1 on a Chris Kirk victory at The Sentry, which confirms just how unlikely he was to strike in a Signature Event surrounded by a stack of players ranked inside the world’s top 20.

But nobody told Kirk, the likable plodder whose fairways and greens approach has now yielded six PGA TOUR titles – this arguably the best of the lot in such rarefied company. Even as the likes of Sahith Theegala and Jordan Spieth made a mountain of birdies on Sunday, Kirk held firm with nine of his own; and long-odds lovers rejoiced that there’s still a place in modern golf for shock results.

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Whether we get one this week at the Sony Open remains to be seen, with Kirk just one of a number of players making the short leap from The Sentry to the Waialae Country Club, where a unique set of skills are typically required to get the job done.

The host course at Waialae is a rare old bird indeed these days, promoting accuracy and strategy over bombs and ballast off the tee. It’s a short and tight Par 70 at 7,044 yards, with just two Par 5s to work with – instead, the players will need to make their birdies on the shorter holes, with a winning score in and around -20 typically required.

Si-Woo Kim only needed to notch -18 to win here 12 months ago, albeit in an edition where the wind was up for a couple of days. That Hawaiian breeze is a chief defense at Waialae but also acts as explanation as to why so many Sony Open champions had played The Sentry at Kapalua the week before – eight of the last ten, in fact, by our count.

Tight fairways, thick tree-lines and often choppy rough only serve to further the claims of the plotters, as does a winner’s circle in recent years that includes the likes of Si-Woo, Kevin Na and Matt Kuchar, with Chris Kirk and Andrew Putnam amongst those chasing home.

In short, this might be the week in which you take a different approach to your bets – relentless fairway finding and GIR are the orders of the day over bombing and gouging, depending on how much rain falls early in the week and how hard the wind blows….the weather forecast could be vital in our bet selection at the Sony Open. 

Our sleeper shortlist for the 2024 edition is made up of accurate types that boast quality on approach from close range, have a reliable chipping stroke when needed and can scramble their way to a winning score – hopefully, one of the five players named below will continue the fine tradition of plodders and strategic sorts at Waialae.

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Matt Kuchar – 50/1 – If Kirk’s win at The Sentry taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected in these early weeks of the new season.

It wouldn’t be a huge shock if Matt Kuchar won the Sony Open anyway – he did so in 2019, and has posted four other top-10s here besides.

These short tracks where accuracy is key are manna from heaven for Kuchar, and his victories here, at Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass and El Camaleon are all testament to a player most at home in these sorts of conditions. 

With a T2 turn at the World Wide Technology Championship to see out 2023, let’s hope Kuchar is still firing in the new year. 

Adam Hadwin – 55/1 – After an evidently rusty opening 36 holes at The Sentry, Aham Hadwin got himself together over the weekend at Kapalua to set himself up nicely for a tilt at the Sony Open – closing out with a round of 64 on Sunday.

Although not a frequent visitor to Waialae over the years, the Canadian has exactly the sort of game that can thrive in these conditions – accurate off the tee, quality on approach in that 50-125 yard range, and a solid scrambler when things go awry.

With top-10s at Colonial and TPC Sawgrass, Hadwin is evidently very happy to just pick and plot his way around the golf course – a handy skill at Waialae. 

Lucas Glover – 60/1 – It’s leap of faith time, as we take a chance that Lucas Glover’s positively icy putter at The Sentry was a mere aberration. 

The flat stick is not the strongest part of his game, historically speaking, but that didn’t stop him winning twice in 2023 – besides, he ranked first for SG: Approach at Kapalua last week (ahead of messrs Scheffler, Hovland, Morikawa et al).

Incredibly accurate off the tee and a steady scrambler, it’s no shock that Glover was T5 at Waialae in 2022 – can he improve on that in 2024?

J.J. Spaun – 60/1 – Our preference for those that have played at The Sentry aside, J.J. Spaun’s game shapes up nicely for Waialae.

He was one of the best scramblers on TOUR in 2023 and ranked inside the top-30 for SG: Tee-to-Green – that is a mark of class for any player.

Putting is the problem for Spaun and ball-strikers of his ilk, but he seemed to find a solution – albeit as far back as November – when gaining strokes on the field with the flat stick at the correlating RSM Classic.

A noted wind player who has won in Texas and finished T3 at El Camaleon, Spaun’s T12 here a year ago was no coincidence.

Tom Hoge – 100/1 – An outing at Kapalua saw a trademark Tom Hoge outing – his irons and wedges were elite, his putting okay, and the rest of his game in disarray.

But with T3 and T12 finishes at Waialae in the past, Hoge is somebody who knows how to plot his way around testing, wind-affected layouts, and when you flush your approaches as clean as he does, you’ve always got a chance.

A winner at Pebble Beach with T3s at El Camaleon and TPC Sawgrass, finding fairways in a stiff breeze has been something of a specialty for Hoge over the years.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Sony Open here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2024)

Cover photo via Instagram