Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Sony Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Sony Open  

Sony Open Fantasy Preview

The 2024 season is underway….and it’s already brought its first surprise winner of the year.

That’s not to suggest that Chris Kirk isn’t a highly accomplished stroke-maker, but in a Signature Event surrounded by pretty much every elite player left on the PGA TOUR, he wasn’t expected to get the job done.

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But Kirk picked and probed his way methodically around Kapalua at The Sentry, chipping exceptionally well and showing a cool hand with the flat stick. When the pressure was at its fiercest on Sunday, he made five birdies on the front nine and three on the back to hold off the charge of Sahith Theegala and Jordan Spieth.

This was Kirk’s sixth PGA TOUR victory, and his second since rejoining the TOUR following a hiatus in which he sought help for alcoholism and depression – good things come to those who wait.

There’s a slightly different rule of engagement at the Sony Open this week, where the Waialae host course has typically favored shorter, more accurate types. So could Kirk double-up on the Hawaii Swing?

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week’s top pick for us was Sahith Theegala who ended up finishing in a solo 2nd.

Although it was a no-cut event, we still had an impressive showing having Poston and Cole as two dark horse picks who finished in great position.

Overall, it was a great way to kick off the New Year!

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2024 Sony Open Field

Historically, those that have played in The Sentry have gone on to do well in the Sony Open a week later – eight of the last ten Sony champions have had that schedule to call upon.

So there will be plenty of interest in the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick, Brian Harman, Sahith Theegala and Ludvig Aberg this week, while Kirk will also stick around.

Defending champion Si-Woo Kim is another who teed it up at Kapalua, as are Tyrrell Hatton, Keegan Bradley and the newly-minted Rookie of the Year, Eric Cole.

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Those looking to buck the trend and win the Sony despite not having played in the Sentry include Will Zalatoris, returning from his lengthy injury absence, Alex Noren and new PGA TOUR card holder Robert MacIntyre.

This Week’s Course Preview

There’s always something refreshing about golf tournaments played at courses that simply cannot be overpowered by gym-honed studs and their latest tech drivers.

Waialae Country Club is one of the few remaining on the PGA TOUR that fit the bill, so the Sony Open is always an interesting tournament to try and handicap.

Although there’s been the occasional renovation work completed, Waialae has featured on the TOUR since 1965, and remains as tight and teasing a test as it did all those decades ago. It measures just 7,044 yards for its Par 70 (two Par 5s), but tight fairways, thick tree-lines, clever fairway shaping and some occasionally thick rough prevents the bombers from having their wicked way.

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The Bermuda greens, which are as stodgy as those showcased at Kapalua last week, are on the small side too – you don’t really want to be approaching these from the rough, for the most part.

Despite its proximity to the coast, water is only in play on three holes, with strategic bunkering, those dense trees and the unpredictable trade winds offering the key defenses – albeit at a venue that is routinely taken for -18 or lower by the winner.

Half of the holes averaged under par 12 months ago and five of them considerably so, with the two Par 5s at nine and 18 yielding the most – the ninth serving up more eagles (35) than bogeys (17). But 13 could be the unlucky number for some, with this 477-yard Par 4 offering up just 36 birdies compared to 124 bogeys or worse.

Weather Forecast for Honolulu, HI

It looks as though the weather gods will give with one hand and take with the other this week.

There’s some heavy rain around in the early part of the week in Honolulu, and if it does come down in great quantities that will soften the course and negate the usual advantage experienced by fairway finders here.

And yet, on the other hand, there’s a fierce wind set to blow – on Friday, that could exceed 20mph and higher.

Otherwise, the four days of golf should be played out in sunshine and temperatures of around 75 degrees – but a strong wind will greet the players on all days bar Sunday, when it looks set to quieten down to single-digits of mph.

HONOLULU WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Sony Open

The ever-mercurial Si-Woo Kim served up another reminder of his talents with a first PGA TOUR title in nearly two years at the 2023 Sony Open.

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The Korean delivered an approach play and scrambling masterclass, bucking the trend of quality putters at Waialae by ranking just 38th in the field with the flat stick.

What he did do was attack with gusto over the weekend, carding a pair of 64s that took his score to -18 – one clear of eventual runner-up Hayden Buckley.

Buckley, the 54-hole leader, had one of those final rounds that tend to dog those seeking a maiden PGA TOUR title – he didn’t make many mistakes, but he stuck it into neutral as he sought the conservative approach and made just one birdie on the front nine; allowing others into the fray.

Nobody but Si-Woo really got that close, mind you, although the Korean’s eight birdies on Sunday – including twos and fours at 17 and 18 – would be enough to land a fourth PGA TOUR title ahead of Buckley, whose inability to birdie the yielding final hole summed up his rather frustrating day.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Sony Open this Week

After the appetizer that was The Sentry last week, it’s back to business for DFS gamers this week with our first full-field event of the year.

With a reliable enough player profile to fall back upon, we can have some confidence of success too.

• PGA $150k Drive the Green: It will cost you $5 per look at this multi-entry contest, but with $25,000 to the winner and stacks of other prizes in excess of $100, there’s ample opportunities to prosper here.
• PGA $60k Birdie: If you are running multiple lineup combinations this week, you might instead prefer this $3 game – there’s still a handy $6k bounty for the winner and a hatful of other worthwhile payouts.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Take a peek at the roll of honor at the Sony Open and you’ll see the names of Si-Woo, Kevin Na and Matt Kuchar on the trophy in the past five years.

With a victory for Hideki Matsuyama too, as well as runner-up spots for the likes of Buckley, Chris Kirk, Brendan Steele and Andrew Putnam, we can comfortably conclude that there really is a premium to finding the short grass off the tee at Waialae.

Further research confirms that a quality scrambling game is also key, as well as accurate approaches from inside 100 yards. Given the small nature of the greens, chipping reliability when missing GIR is also vital to rescuing par at a layout where bogeys are nigh-on unforgivable given the scoring.

That’s plenty for player profilers to work with, while further weight should be given to form at a number of correlating conditions – Kapalua, home of The Sentry, has a fine record as a predictor for success in the Sony Open. Others, such as Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), Sea Island (RSM Classic), and El Camaleon (a former host of PGA TOUR events) offer up similar atmospheric conditions, while Colonial (Charles Schwab Challenge) is a similarly tight and testing Par 70.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sony Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sony Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Ludvig Aberg (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 112.4, Salary: $10,500)

It was a rather low-key return for Ludvig Aberg in 2024 at The Sentry – until he exploded into life in the final round.

The Swede posted a colossal round of 63 on Sunday, taking the turn in just 30 shots, while gaining a mammoth +1.57 strokes on the field with his ball-striking and +1.73 putting. It’s fair to say that Aberg clicked in that final 18 holes.

We expect him to take that form to Waialae, where his status as one of the best drivers on the planet should yield maximum reward. A solid enough scrambler and quality on approach from inside 100 yards, Aberg can add the Sony Open title to the correlating RSM Classic crown he claimed in 2023. 

Key Stats (2023):

• Total Driving – 1st
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 1st
• Proximity to Hole – 2nd

Top Tier Pick #2

Brian Harman (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 104.0, Salary: $9,900)

A strangely so-so record at Waialae is all that prevents Brian Harman from being the sportsbook favorite this week.

The left-hander has made the cut in nine of his ten trips to this week’s layout, and yet his best finish is just T13 – go figure.

But this is a venue that is perfect for his ball-on-a-string game, and a strong wind is hardly going to inconvenience a British Open champion.

That victory, and subsequent Ryder Cup appearance, should fill Harman with so much confidence. He’s always had the game to tame courses like Waialae – maybe he now has the belief he can do it too.

Key Stats (2023):

• Scrambling – 1st
• Driving Accuracy – 16th
• Proximity to Hole – 17th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Adam Svensson (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 94.4, Salary: $7,700)

Although T33 at The Sentry hardly sounds like an effort to write home about, Adam Svensson did just enough to suggest a better performance could be in the offing at Waialae.

He gained strokes on the field on approach, while in the fourth round he also added +0.85 with the flat stick – suggesting that the Canadian had finally gotten to grips with the idiosyncratic Bermuda greens in Hawaii.

A winner in the Bahamas and at the RSM Classic, with a prior T7 at Waialae, Svensson has the resumé of somebody we’d expect to do handsomely at the Sony Open. 

Key Stats (2023):

• Total Birdies – 3rd
• Driving Accuracy – 39th
• Scrambling – 41st

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Andrew Putnam (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 66.6, Salary: $7,500)

What a weekend it was for Andrew Putnam.

He went round Kapalua in -15, gained a combined +3.70 strokes on the field on approach across Saturday and Sunday plus more than +2.00 putting.

That version of Putnam should do very nicely at Waialae, where he has twice finished inside the top-five before – as you would expect from such an accurate driver and adept scrambler. 

And don’t forget that Putnam finished 2023 with a T5 finish in Mexico – that showcases exactly what he is capable of.

Key Stats (2023):

• SG: Putting – 12th
• SG: Approach – 25th
• Driving Accuracy – 34th

Low-Tier Pick

Alexander Bjork (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 75.0, Salary: $7,200)

PGA TOUR fans will get their first look at a stack of new tour card holders this week, with one of them being the talented Swede, Alexander Bjork.

He fits the bill as the sort who might take to Waialae – typically accurate off the tee, Bjork is a decent scrambler and chipper when needs be, and improved his approach play markedly in 2023; hence his new PGA TOUR status.

At home in a breeze and having played well at claustrophobic, tree-heavy layouts like Valderrama, Bjork should be comfortable on what is effectively his PGA TOUR debut.

Key Stats:

• N/A

Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open

Ben Kohles (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 81.6, Salary: $7,000)

The king of the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 is already making waves on the PGA TOUR, finishing T5 at the RSM Classic where he closed out with a mightily impressive round of 63.

One of the most accurate operators on the KFT last year, Kohles won twice in 2023 and has an array of eye-catching performances to his name, including T2 at the faintly-correlating Barbados Great Exuma Classic.

T27 here in 2022, for a sleeper pick that would once again be a handsome result – we’re backing Kohles to go even better this week.

Key Stats:

• N/A

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open

Ryan Moore (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 85.0, Salary: $6,700)

Seemingly dead and buried in his quest to retain his tour card, Ryan Moore nevertheless ended 2023 like a runaway train – managing to lock up his playing privileges in the nick of time.

Moore finished T13 or better in three of the last four events of the Fall Swing, including T5 in Bermuda and T8 at the correlating RSM Classic.

Whether he takes his foot off the gas now or not remains to be seen, but for sure an accurate driver and effective scrambler, Moore sure is suited to Waialae – finally, he’s got the form in the book to take advantage of his skillset.

Key Stats (2023):

• Driving Accuracy – 4th
• Scrambling – 21st
• SG: Approach – 22nd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season (2024)

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