Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The American Express

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 American Express  

The American Express Fantasy Preview

As sports bettors and fantasy gamers, we tend to look for narratives to explain the unlikely and unpredictable things that happen in the sports we love.

It’s the only thing we can cling to when 400/1 shots like Grayson Murray are winning quality events like the Sony Open, but perhaps the genesis for that victory came last year in a heated players’ meeting in the midst of the LIV Golf fallout and concerns over how the PGA TOUR was being run.

As reported by UK newspaper The Telegraph, after Murray had questioned the position of Jay Monaghan, he became involved in a war of words with Rory McIlroy, who retorted ‘just play better, Grayson.’

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He replied with a fruity riposte of his own, but it’s possible that lit a fire under Murray – he posted two top-10s on the PGA TOUR last summer and has since won on the Korn Ferry Tour.

But the Sony Open win is undoubtedly the biggest of his career, particularly as he showed great resolve under pressure to win a three-man playoff ahead of Keegan Bradley and Byeong-Hun An.

Murray needed a clutch birdie at the last just to check in to the playoff, and then he repeated the feat on the first extra hole – curling home a 38-ft putt to land his second PGA TOUR title and his first in seven years.

He’s played his way into the rest of the Signature Events in 2024 – a welcome boost for a guy who has experienced some pretty dark lows, as he was willing to share in his post-win press conference.

But he’s on the up and up now, and gets a chance to go again as the PGA TOUR rolls around to California for The American Express.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Tough showing for the boys last week in Hawaii.  Not much to boast or brag about, so let’s move it up to California and bounce back this week!

2024 American Express Field

Normally something of a jolly on the West Coast, a strong field will tee it up at PGA West and La Quinta, with Scottie Scheffler headlining alongside Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and reigning U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark.

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Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Rickie Fowler and Tom Kim will be looking to find some better early year form, while the likes of Justin Thomas, Jason Day and Sungjae Im add even further depth of quality to proceedings.

Will Zalatoris will continue his comeback from injury and surgery, as will Daniel Berger – making his first PGA TOUR start since 2022 as he battles back from a back problem.

Si-Woo Kim leads the former winners in the field, although one player who won’t be in California – for obvious reasons – is defending champion Jon Rahm.

Remember, this is a pro-am event, with each professional paired with a celebrity, sportsman or woman, entrepreneur or anybody else fortunate enough to score an invite.

This Week’s Course Preview

The American Express is one of those events that used a rotational course setup, with the players taking on three different courses (one round at each), before the cut is made and they return to the TPC Stadium Course at PGA West for the final round.

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This is undoubtedly the most interesting of the three layouts. Generally the toughest, Pete Dye was in pretty forgiving mood when he designed the Stadium Course, but even so there’s a stack of bunkers, water is in play on seven holes, the rough is slightly higher than the other two venues and the Bermuda greens are of a small-ish size.

The Tournament Course, designed by Jack Nicklaus, used to be the middle layout of the three in terms of difficulty, although it actually played as the easiest of the trio last year. This is a classic resort layout perfect for a pro-am event: wide fairways, generous greens, few hazards, so there’s very little to worry about for players of all abilities.

The third course is found at the La Quinta Country Club, and like the Tournament Course this really is a doozy for the top pros – wide open fairways and receptive greens lend themselves to low scoring, as was the case when Adam Hadwin became the eighth member of the 59 club here back in 2017.

Remember, all of the layouts are made more forgiving in a bid to accommodate the amateurs, so think slower-than-average greens and agreeable pin positions to facilitate a fair test for all.

Weather Forecast for La Quinta, CA

A warm enough, relatively breeze-free week awaits in La Quinta, which will be music to the ears of all involved.

Thursday could be the pick of the four days, with sunny spells and temperatures of up to 73 degrees more than pleasant enough.

It looks set to cloud over on Friday and Saturday, but again it will remain warm enough and wind speeds of 3mph are ideal for low scores.

As for Sunday, there could be some rain in the offing – but again, temperatures will sit around the 70 degree mark and there looks likely to be little wind to speak of.

LA QUINTA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from The American Express

Despite having previously described the American Express as a putting contest, albeit in expletive-laden fashion, Jon Rahm put his distaste to one side to clinch a second title at PGA West.

He and Davis Thompson became embroiled in a fascinating shootout, with the pair making the most of the La Quinta-Nicklaus-Stadium rotation to charge into a four stroke, 54-hole lead over the field.

Thompson, the big-hitting rookie, showed no signs of relenting despite the swagger of his playing partner, and it was only the fast start of Rahm – who made birdies at both the opening holes – and a key birdie at 16 for the Spaniard that would see him lift the trophy by a single shot at -27.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The American Express this Week

You probably don’t need us to tell you that a pro-am event played across three courses is not ideal DFS material! Even so, if we stick to the plan and the player profile we’ve identified below, we should hopefully be in the hunt for some prizes this week.

• PGA $175k Drive the Green: A $5 ticket to win a top prize of $25k seems like a fun way to spend a few dollars, and of course there’s other payouts to win too in this standout contest.
• PGA $60k Birdie: You can enter up to 20 lineups in this $3 contest if you have a few different variations you want to play, with a jackpot of $6,000 an appetizing carrot that’s been dangled.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Any pro-am event played over a split course rotation is likely to throw up known unknowns, to coin a phrase.

The shenanigans of a playing partner like Bill Murray can only serve to upset the concentration of a pro trying to put a string of birdies together, while the possibility of a draw bias, given the varying nature of the host courses, cannot be overlooked.

But while Rahm has been quick to write off this event at a putting shootout, it’s worth noting that there are a few angles in that can help to identify targets for our draft.

There really does seem to be a long history of strong drivers doing well in this event. Rahm and Thompson are both big and strong off the tee, while Hudson Swafford – another two-time winner of this tournament – also thrived with the big stick in hand.

Patrick Cantlay, the 2021 runner-up, is also elite off the tee, while previous champions Si-Woo Kim and Adam Long are fairway-finders par excellence; the latter, you may recall, breaking a long-standing PGA TOUR record for consecutive fairways found last year.

You can even go further back to find the likes of Jhonattan Vegas, Brian Gay and Joason Dufner in the winner’s circle here – to a man typically very good off the tee.

Of course, with easy greens you want to be attacking from the short stuff, and the fair-tempo to the putting surfaces – designed to make life manageable for the amateurs – means that even ordinarily weak putters will feel more at home this week.

There’s not a great deal of correlating action to call upon, although the Phoenix Open seems to be a decent primer. Also played in the desert, a number of players have featured prominently there and here, while a stack of Arizona university graduates have won a previous iteration of this event or in Phoenix – desert form and history matters, it seems.

Given the consistent nature of the forecast, it might be worth drafting players starting out with the easier two courses – Tournament and La Quinta – on their rotation. A fast start has often been vital in this event, while back-to-back rounds at the Stadium Course can act as a useful eye-opener.

And, of course, it will likely take a score deep into the -20s to get the job done this week. Only those able to make birdie after birdie should be on your shortlist.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The American Express   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The American Express  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 6/1, FPPG: 137.8, Salary: $11,400)

As hard as we’ve tried, it’s impossible to overlook Scottie Scheffler this week.

Despite our reservations about this format and conditions being a leveller amongst the players – confirmed by the fact that four of the last five winners have been available at sportsbook odds of 55/1, 250/1, 500/1 and 1000/1 before the off, there’s still two wins for Rahm too and top-fives for the likes of Scheffler, Schauffele, Cantlay and Finau.

In short, the classier acts in the field can still hold sway.

And they don’t come much classier than Scheffler, whose ball-striking brilliance shows no signs of abating – that will set up birdie-looks in mass quantity this week. Putting them away with the flatstick….well, that’s the challenge.

But as mentioned, these greens tend to be agreeable for the amateurs, with slow pace and minimal break, so Scheffler will surely feel much more comfortable as a result. If he starts making some putts, the tournament low-scoring record is in danger.

Key Stats (2023):

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 1st
• SG: Approach – 1st
• Birdie Average – 4th

Top Tier Pick #2

 Tom Kim (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 99.9, Salary: $9,900)

It was a slightly below-par Tom Kim that heralded 2024 with a so-so effort at The Sentry, but we’re keen not to read too much into that.

For starters, he lost -1.12 strokes to the field putting on the grainy Bermuda greens of Hawaii, and he’ll be far more at home on the smoother surfaces that will be found in California this week.

The positives were that he gained strokes on the field off the tee and on approach, so all was not lost from his foray to Hawaii.

Back on American soil, Kim still has his win at the Shriners in his recent memory, while T6 here a year ago will also serve as a reminder of his suitability for this particular test. An elite ball-striker, the Korean can take a similar path to victory as Rahm 12 months go.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 10th
• Birdie Average – 14th
• Total Driving – 21st

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Akshay Bhatia (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 78.4, Salary: $8,200)

The likable left-hander has the sort of happy-go-lucky demeanor that suggests he can thrive in the pro-am environment – even if his record isn’t great in the event.

But two previous trips came as a much younger man, and his game looks far more rounded now – particularly with the addition of a broomstick putter in 2024, which has so far yielded +1.42 and +0.23 strokes gained on the field putting; a mammoth leap forward for a player that has struggled on the greens at times during his professional career.

Bhatia played nicely for his T13 at the Sony Open, with solidity on the greens backed by +1.89 strokes gained on the field with his ball striking. He looks set-up perfectly for a strong week in California….hopefully that’s not put the kiss of death on him….

Key Stats (2023):

• Total Driving – 11th
• Birdie Average – 13th
• SG: Approach – 33rd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Matti Schmid (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 66.9, Salary: $7,200)

The young German learned the hard way at Waialae that you can’t hit bombs off the tee and expect to thrive.

A missed cut there can be put down to the exuberance of youth, and at a trio of layouts where he can be a little looser off the tee, Schmid can thrive.

He was T6 here 12 months ago, and looked in good stroke as recently as December in a couple of DP World Tour showings – T4 at the Alfred Dunhill Championship continuing his fine development. 

Key Stats (2023):

• Total Driving – 13th
• Birdie Average – 49th
• Greens in Regulation – 55th

Low-Tier Pick

Grayson Murray (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 73.3, Salary: $7,100)

There was absolutely nothing lucky about Grayson Murray’s win at the Sony Open; he drove the ball brilliantly, approached the greens well and scrambled successfully when he didn’t, and putted reliably enough to get his hands on the trophy.

The Arizona University graduate has evidently played plenty of desert golf over the years, has a T8 in the pro-am at the Pebble Beach to his name and a best of T10 in this tournament too.

There really is nothing stopping Murray from having another big week; these odds are simply off the chart.

Key Stats (2023):

• N/A

Sleeper Pick for The American Express

Carl Yuan (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 80.4, Salary: $6,900)

With T4 finishes in two of his last three outings, Carl Yuan has been incredibly overlooked this week.

He drove the ball to an elite standard at the Sony Open, where he topped the leaderboard at one point on Sunday, and he continues to do everything else well enough to contend for silverware.

With a Fairway Proximity rank of 29th in 2022/23, if Yuan drives the ball well again this week then he’s another who will get plenty of chances to break par.

Key Stats (2023):

• Fairway Proximity – 29th
• Birdie Average – 42nd
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 67th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The American Express

Zac Blair (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 55.4, Salary: $6,500)

We were fiddling around with some stats at the Sony Open on Sunday, and with around about ten holes left for the leaders, Zac Blair had created 15 birdie looks inside 10ft for the week – only three players ended up recording more.

It really was an iron game masterclass, and a misbehaving putter meant that he had to settle for T30.

Blair is a prolific fairway finder who, went his approach play is on point, really is capable of outperforming the low salary that he is routinely available for – at $6,500, it’s worth taking a chance that everything will fall into place for him this week.

Key Stats (2023):

• Driving Accuracy – 7th
• Proximity to Hole – 31st
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 48th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season (2024)

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