Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 PGA Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 PGA Championship  

PGA Championship Fantasy Preview

In the outstanding movie Spinal Tap, the band’s frontmen Nigel Tufnel and David St. Hubbins muse that there’s, ‘a fine line between stupid and clever’.

In golf, there’s a fine line between being a prolific champion and a guy with stacks of talent that doesn’t get it done – as the back nine on Sunday at the Wells Fargo Championship confirms.

With seven holes to play, just one shot separated Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele – by the end of that stretch, the gap was five shots in the Irishman’s favor.

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Schauffele is one of those guys that leaves DFS gamers and bettors tearing out their hair. He has incredible talent – as good as pretty much anybody on the PGA TOUR, and yet his trophy cabinet remains relatively empty.

McIlroy’s is fit to burst, and that’s because he knows how to get the job done – he made an eagle and two birdies down the closing stretch, and was even afforded the luxury of a club pro like double bogey at the last, with Schauffele losing more than two strokes to the field on and around the greens in another Sunday he’d love to forget.

A week can be a long time in sport. Who knows, maybe Sunday at the PGA Championship will provide Schauffele with a much happier ending?

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Despite our efforts to ride Theegala all the way, ultimately last week proved to be the Rory show once again.  

Sepp Strakka was our shining star of the week with his T8 finish.

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You got to hand it to Rory for the win here; so let’s forget about last week and focus on Valhalla. 

2024 PGA Championship Field

Will he or won’t he?

It seems almost impossible to us that Scottie Scheffler would withdraw from the PGA Championship, but that is – according to some news sources – the potential state of play if his first child is yet to be born.

That will have huge ramifications for the likes of Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka, who both head to Valhalla in winning form. They would be installed as favorites if Scheffler doesn’t make the trip.
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Otherwise, this is a full major grade feel, with the best of the PGA TOUR – Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark and co – locking horns with their counterparts from LIV, including Cameron Smith, Bryson DeChambeau, and Dustin Johnson. The rather outspoken Talor Gooch has also been given an invite by the PGA.

Ludvig Aberg withdrew from the Wells Fargo field citing a knee injury, although it’s thought that was as a precautionary measure – rather than anything untoward.

And the early indications are that Tiger Woods will also be fit enough to tee it up. Could he cause a shock in Louisville?

This Week’s Course Preview

As a three-time host of the PGA Championship already, and having welcomed the 2008 Ryder Cup, Valhalla Golf Club’s major credentials are not in doubt.

Jack Nicklaus certainly wasn’t in forgiving mood when he came up with the blueprints for the place – he wanted to make the players suffer, with a mammoth yardage of 7,609 for its Par 71.

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Five of the Par 4s measure 480 yards or more, with two of the three Par 5s knocking on the door of the 600-yard mark – this is going to be a physical test that could be made all the harder by the rain-softened conditions.

The four Par 3s measure upwards of 190 yards, and if the card we’ve seen is to be believed, the fourteenth (named Two Tears, appropriately) could play in the region of 250 yards – one of the longest Par 3s that the players will ever experience.

So that brutish length would be enough of a defense, but Jack and the PGA aren’t finished yet. It’s thought that the rough will be allowed to grow to four inches – ‘proper’ major length, while the greens will be fast and firm (depending on the rain) and feature tightly-mown runoffs.

The first nine holes also have an exposed, Linksy feel to them, while the back nine has more of a parklands feel with sharp doglegs keeping all of the field honest off the tee.

And as if all that wasn’t enough, the Bentgrass greens are also on the small side, meaning that a reliable scrambling game will also be required. It’s exhausting just thinking about it. 

But there’s light relief too. The fourth averaged well under par in 2014, while the Par 5 seventh features two fairways – the smaller landing zone affords the best opportunity to attack the green in two.

The thirteenth remains a drivable Par 4, while the eighteenth has historically been a breeze – some in the field will be able to reach the green in two on this easy Par 5 closer.

Weather Forecast for Louisville, KY

The weather forecast for Louisville this week is consistent in its inconsistency: it’s likely that it will rain, but the specifics are a little harder to tie down.

For now, it seems likely that there will be rain in the area on both Tuesday and Wednesday – creating the possibility of softened conditions come Thursday’s start.

Then we could have a bookended tournament. Thursday and Sunday look set to be calm, sunny, and warm – temperatures reaching up to 86 degrees.

As for Friday and Saturday, wind looks unlikely to be a problem, but more rain could be – a softened 7,600 yard course could play seriously long.

LOUISVILLE WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the PGA Championship

That classic ‘what if’ moment was played out at the 2023 PGA Championship when LIV star Brooks Koepka took the PGA sanctioned back home with him.

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In all of the rumpus that has unfolded as part of golf’s civil war, it’s sometimes forgotten just how good players like Koepka are – his bulging trophy cabinet, which now features five majors, is a stark reminder.

He didn’t take to life at the Oak Hill Country Club straight out of the gate, though. An opening round of 72 saw him sit six shots behind early leader Bryson DeChambeau, before a second round of 66 – the day’s best – fired him back into contention.

It was more of the same on Saturday, with another round of 66 – again, comfortably the day’s best effort – seeing Koepka step out with a one-shot lead over Viktor Hovland and Corey Conners.

The Canadian fell away with a disastrous 75 on Sunday, and with Scheffler lurking – he posted a closing 65 – and Hovland hanging around, Koepka needed to show all of his major credentials.

And he did, by and large, because but for a few bogeys here and there, Brooks made seven birdies in all – including three in a row on the front nine – to cap a two-shot victory.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s PGA Championship

A major tournament means a major field, with plenty of different options no matter what your budget. Here’s two to satisfy the vast majority of players….

• PGA $3M Fantasy Millionaire: The big daddy of them all comes in the shape of this $25 entry game, which promises a prize pool of $3 million and a winner’s share of $1 million. The top 100 players will walk away with $500 at least.

• PGA $600k Drive the Green: The lower price point brings this $5 game, which still promises a sizable $100k to its champion. There’s plenty of other major-sized prizes to be won too.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Back when Valhalla last hosted the PGA Championship, strokes gained data was still in its infancy – therefore, there aren’t any numerical conclusions that can be made.

So we’re going to have to make some assumptions when creating our lineups this week, and the first is that length will surely be a huge difference-maker – how can it not be on a rain-softened layout that is already one of the longest the players will see all year?

There will be approaches hit from 180+ yards with regularity, which – given the stingy size of the greens – will likely mean a lower-than-average GIR count; at which point, chipping and scrambling become key weapons in the arsenal.

We can add Bentgrass putting into the mix too, and look for players comfortable in a breeze – the front nine of Valhalla is somewhat exposed to the elements.

It’s hard to offer any correlating courses when we don’t know exactly how Valhalla will play. But Muirfield Village (another Nicklaus design) could be an interesting comparison. The home of the Memorial Tournament is long, features lots of 175+ yard approaches, and has small Bentgrass greens, so perhaps there’s a correlation to be found.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the PGA Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the PGA Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Rory McIlroy (Odds: 15/2, FPPG: 91.0, Salary: $12,000)

There are five tournaments on the PGA TOUR that Rory McIlroy has won more than once, and it would have been six had he not lost in a playoff at the Honda Classic back in 2014.

It seems highly unlikely that’s coincidence, so the fact that the Irishman returns to a Valhalla layout that he has won at before, in a PGA Championship he has won twice already, has to go down as attention-grabbing.

Yes, there’s a chance he’ll be a chalky pick this week given his win at the Wells Fargo, but don’t forget the field will also contain Scheffler (we imagine) and Koepka, who won his last outing on the LIV Tour. 

They’ll all be popular, of course, but Rory’s win is much more than a case of recency bias on our part – he’s been playing well for some time now, his ball-striking was exceptional at Quail Hollow, and it’s high time he ended his major drought, which dates back to that win at Valhalla all those years ago.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 6th
• Birdie Average – 27th

Top Tier Pick #2

Joaquin Niemann (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 89.2, Salary: $9,400)

In the midst of a winning run on the LIV circuit, Joaquin Niemann became quite a chalky pick at The Masters, where he kinda did okay with a T22 finish.

One of the interesting things about Augusta National is that it’s not all that punitive for those who stray offline off the tee, so maybe Valhalla will help the Chilean to gain maximum advantage from his outstanding driving.

Niemann’s tee-to-green game has long been impressive – some will remember when outduelled Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young to win the 2022 Genesis Invitational, and on the LIV tour this year he’s finished T11 or better in five of his six outings, with two wins.

We appreciate that it’s hard to make exacting judgements about players when not supported by strokes gained data, but Niemann has long been a favorite of this column dating back to his PGA TOUR days – this Valhalla setup looks perfect for him to contest for a major title for the first time.

Key Stats:

• N/A

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Sam Burns (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 77.9, Salary: $8,500)

Nappy factor believers unite.

Sam Burns became a new dad on April 22, and in his first outing since he delivered one of his best performances of the season at the Wells Fargo.

T13 at Quail Hollow was powered by a much-improved ball-striking show, and if he hadn’t run out of steam in the final round, an easy top-10 would have been recorded – such a return in a Signature Event is ideal prep for a major.

Generally outstanding off the tee and reliable on the greens, when Burns’ approach play fires he is extremely dangerous to the rest – five PGA TOUR titles since 2021 is testament to that.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 4th
• Total Driving – 13th
• SG: Putting – 31st

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Byeong Hun An (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 81.0, Salary: $7,800)

When you look at his recent performances, statistically speaking, it’s hard to imagine that Byeong Hun An can play any better than this.

He’s been one of the top 20 ball-strikers in the field in the last four measured PGA TOUR events in a row, and at Quail Hollow he also happened to be the best putter in the field too.

Combine those two elements together and you have a live chance, with the Korean T4 at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson and the best in the field at Wells Fargo bar McIlroy and Schauffele’s stripe-shows.

T16 at The Masters, An has it within him to post top-10s in major company – that would be an excellent return from a player at this particular price point.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 2nd
• Greens in Regulation – 12th
• Total Driving – 16th

Low-Tier Pick

Kurt Kitayama (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 68.3, Salary: $6,500)

If long, straight driving is going to be the order of the day at Valhalla, Kurt Kitayama should – in theory – be in a more advantageous position than most off the tee.

He ranks eleventh on TOUR this season for Total Driving, which confirms that his piercing length is matched by enough accuracy to be approaching out of the short grass more often than not.

Speaking of which….Kitayama ranked fifth for SG: Approach at Quail Hollow, and has gained strokes on the field with iron and wedge in 11/12 in recent months.

Of course, his woes on the greens continue, but the irony is that slick, Bentgrass greens at Augusta helped Kitayama produce one of his best putting performances in some time at The Masters – maybe lightning will strike twice this week?

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 11th
• SG: Approach – 26th
• Scrambling – 29th

Sleeper Pick for the PGA Championship

Taylor Pendrith (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 63.3, Salary: $6,000)

It did look as if Taylor Pendrith’s win at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson came well out of leftfield given his struggles in 2024.

But it transpires that the Canadian has quietly been battling a shoulder injury for the best part of a year, which has seen him unable to swing his clubs at full throttle.

However, with Pendrith now free of pain, he’s making hay while the sun shines – that win in Texas followed by T10 at the Wells Fargo.

Now that his clubhead speed has returned, Pendrith is swinging hard and fast once more – he hit more than half of fairways from an average length of 314 yards at Quail Hollow, which will be an excellent foundation for success at Valhalla too.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 6th
• Birdie Average – 21st
• Scrambling – 57th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the PGA Championship

Mackenzie Hughes (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 70.6, Salary: $5,800)

So much about golf is about confidence and self-belief – and the way that Mackenzie Hughes is rolling the rock right now, he must be confident of holing anything right now.

It’s true that the Canadian doesn’t fit the Valhalla brief of a monster off the tee, but he does make it work for him despite his relative lack of length – averaging 66% of fairways from an average of 304 yards at Quail Hollow indicative of how he can compete in this department.

With an excellent recovery game when his approaches go awry, Hughes has gained more than n+1.00 strokes on the field putting in four of his last five PGA TOUR outings – those really are extraordinary numbers, and not just a flash in the pan given the consistency of them.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 9th
• SG: Putting – 20th
• Bogey Avoidance – 29th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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