Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 US Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the US Open  

US Open Fantasy Preview

He is inevitable, and victory was inevitable.

With no distractions and his wife and new child at greenside, Scottie Scheffler became only the fifth player in history to win The Masters, the PLAYERS, and now the Memorial Tournament during their careers.

It means he’s now won at some of the most classical golf courses in the United States – Muirfield Village, Augusta, TPC Sawgrass, and Bay Hill to name just a few. And he’s not even out of his twenties yet. 

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In truth, Scheffler was holding on to his lead with grim determination on Sunday. He was missing fairways and greens as Muirfield Village showed its teeth, with the back nine in particular proving a challenge – at +2, this was one of the worst (relatively speaking) final rounds of his career since ascending to elite status.

But birdies were hard to come by for everyone else too – Collin Morikawa made four of them on Sunday, however he was unable to reel in Scheffler despite playing the better golf of the pair.

We’re halfway through 2024, and Scheffler has five wins to his name already – the record, out of interest, for most PGA TOUR titles in a calendar year is 18 by Byron Nelson, although there’s an asterisk against that as many of his rivals were away on military service. Otherwise, the record is Ben Hogan’s 13….can Scheffler match or better that?

He’ll be eyeing the U.S. Open this week as a chance to notch his sixth title of 2024….

Last Week’s Results

WINNER WINNER, heading into a MAJOR?  You gotta love it!

Last week we had 5 Top 10 finishers including the man himself, Scottie Scheffler, as our horse pick of the week.  Let’s just say we’re feeling really good about Pinehurst this week.

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US Open Field

Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have now won five PGA TOUR titles between them in the last nine weeks – no wonder they head the field for the U.S. Open this week.

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Morikawa continues to knock on the door, while Xander Schauffele won the last major – the PGA Championship at Valhalla.

The LIV contingent will be headed by Brooks Koepka, fourth in the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No.2 back in 2014, and Bryson DeChambeau, but be cautious regarding Jon Rahm – he withdrew from the Houston event last week after appearing to pick up an injury while jarring a tee shot.

The U.S. Open field will feature its usual band of regional qualifiers – of them, one of the most interesting stories is that of Robert Rock. The 47-year-old, a former DP World Tour pro, had retired from professional golf, but turned up to the qualifiers to play alongside some friends….imagine his surprise when he played well enough to qualify!

Wyndham Clark will defend the title he won at the Los Angeles Country Club; he’s one of a dozen former U.S. Open champions in the field.

This Week’s Course Preview

The U.S. Open is, or should be, the toughest test in golf – and Course No.2 at the Pinehurst Resort has, historically, lived up to the billing.

Host of the U.S. Open in 2005 and 2014, just three players finished the week under par in both of those editions combined – assuming the layout plays to its traditional difficulty this week, the field is in for a remarkably challenging time.

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Incredibly, Pinehurst No.2 was designed by Donald Ross as far back as 1907 – imagine how tough it was for the players, with their unyielding clubs, back then!

Pinehurst joined the major rota with the PGA Championship in 1936, and has at other times welcomed the women’s U.S. Open, three men’s U.S. Opens, a Ryder Cup, the U.S. Amateur, and the TOUR Championship.

Ben Crenshaw, Bill Coore, and others have been on renovation duty over the years, but Pinehurst No.2 remains true to Ross’ original blueprints more than a century ago!

One of its main challenges is its extraordinary length – 7,550 yards for a Par 70 is mammoth, to say the least. It’s possible that tee boxes and yardages will be altered from day to day, but historically No.2 has had at least four 500+ yard Par 4s….unheard of on the PGA TOUR. There’s only two Par 5s too – and one of those will play to around 620 yards.

The long physicality of Pinehurst No.2 is matched by the challenge presented by its Bermuda green complexes. Although not as small in size as some other famous layouts, many have that upturned saucer shape – which means landing zones are small, and approach shots that are even fractionally off-line will roll off the green and, often, leave a tough up and down. 

Curiously, the natural rough has been all but removed – instead, Pinehurst has compacted sand (there’s more than 100 bunkers in total) and natural scrubland lining its fairways, which can lead to some challenging lies for those who get unlucky.

Pinehurst No.2 is as a U.S. Open course should be – you need to be able to hit long, accurate drives, pinpoint approach shots, and chip and scramble well when greens in regulation are inevitably missed.

It’s been a decade since we saw this beast in action, but the assumption is that it will play as excruciatingly tough as it has always done.

Weather Forecast for Pinehurst, NC

Rain on Monday in the Pinehurst area looks set to give way to an incredibly hot and dry rest of the week – conditions that will only serve to make the course play firmer and faster.

As far as the early forecast is concerned, the four days of tournament action will be a cookie cutter of each other – sunny spells and temperatures ranging from 89 degrees to a scorching 93.

At least, for the players’ sake, the wind looks set to be down – predictions of between 6mph and 8mph won’t keep them awake at night.

PINEHURST WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the US Open

As the course dried out and played firmer, the players’ scores at the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club generally got higher and higher.

For Wyndham Clark, that meant he was holding on to his lead heading into Sunday….but he’d already done enough with rounds of 64 and 67 across the opening two days to build what would prove to be an insurmountable lead.

Rickie Fowler led the way after 36 holes, aided by a sublime opening round of 62, and he was tied with Clark on -10 with just a round to play – his challenge would fade via a round of 75 on a tough Sunday.

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Clark, McIlroy, and Scheffler were separated by just three holes heading into the final round, but it was the confident Clark who – to the surprise of some – held off the two heavyweights to win his first major as they all shot level par rounds. 

You might be interested to know what happened the last time Pinehurst No.2 hosted the U.S. Open in 2014. That event was won in extraordinary fashion by Martin Kaymer, whose final score of -9 was eight shots better than the rest of the field. The cutline came at +5, as Pinehurst once again lived up to its ghastly reputation.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s US Open

It’s a major week, which is reflected in the sheer variety of DFS contests available – there’s truly something for everyone. Here’s a pair to try for a mix of budgets and formats.

• PGA $3M Fantasy Golf Millionaire: It comes just a handful of times a year, so of course it would be rude not to enter the milly maker contest. It’s $15 a ticket, and even if you don’t claim the $1 million top prize there’s still a stack of other high-grade payouts – the top 65 players, for example, all win a minimum of $1,000. 
• PGA $75k Albatross: It would be nice to win a few dollars in another contest to effectively pay for our milly maker tickets, so let’s try this $12 single entry game – the top 20% or so of teams win a minimum of $25, with a top prize of $7,500 up for grabs.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

We know what to expect from Pinehurst No.2 this week, although pinning that down statistically is hard to do – strokes gained data was not in use the last time this track hosted the U.S. Open.

But length will obviously be a huge advantage this week – not only because many of the holes demand it off the tee, but also because the target zones on the greens are so small. Attacking these with height and spin with a wedge or short iron, as opposed to a seven iron or longer, really could prove to be a difference-maker.

There will be plenty of missed greens too, so a reliable chipping and scrambling game will also be essential – there will be many times where the players are left with tricky up-and-downs for par, and over the course of 72 holes making more of these really could be the foundation for victory.

We’ve a feeling that the Florida Swing will point the way towards the winner. The top three players on the leaderboard the last time Pinehurst hosted the U.S. Open were Kaymer, Fowler, and Erik Compton – Kaymer has won the PLAYERS Championship and finished T4 in the Cognizant Classic (formerly the Honda), Fowler has won the PLAYERS and Honda, as well as finishing T3 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, while Compton, not the most decorated of players, served up top-fives in the Honda and API (his best efforts on the PGA TOUR).

The Florida Swing typically plays out in tough conditions and on Bermuda greens, so these events could be our edge-finder for Pinehurst.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the US Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the US Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Brooks Koepka (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 69.9, Salary: $10,000)

The elephant in the room, of course, is that layouts like Pinehurst No.2 generally reward the most accurate, technically proficient players – of which Scheffler is right now, by some margin, the best in the field.

But he’s not bullet proof, as we saw Sunday, and it only takes a bad lie or a bad decision to result in a double-bogey or worse – do we really want to take a $13,000 risk with Scheffler, while accepting that he might win by five?

We should spread our risk by sharing our salary cap across as many heavyweights as we can. And the first is a player who knows what it takes to win a tough U.S. Open renewal.

The last time the U.S. Open was really tough was back in 2018, with Shinnecock Hills on hosting duty. Not a single player finished under par there, but it was Brooks Koepka that outlasted the field to win with +1.

That was his second U.S. Open triumph, and while much has changed in his world and that of golf since, Koepka remains one of the best players on the planet – even if the world rankings don’t suggest as much.

Within shooting distance of the lead at the PGA Championship at the halfway stage, Koepka has since won a LIV event and played reasonably well in Houston last time out – his final round of 65 was the best in the field.

T4 at Pinehurst in 2014, taking Koepka as a top-tier pick represents something of a gamble – but there’s tremendous potential upside from a $10,000 price point.

Key Stats:

• N/A

Top Tier Pick #2

Collin Morikawa (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 75.7, Salary: $9,400)

At the last two majors, Collin Morikawa has been solo second (The Masters) and tied-first (PGA Championship) after 54 holes. Can he finally go on and convert a victory at Pinehurst?

The signs are certainly very positive, as Morikawa’s approach play – formerly the jewel in his crown when winning two majors – is returning to its former glories.

Elite iron and wedge play carried Morikawa to second place at the Memorial Tournament last weekend, where he might well have caught Scheffler on Sunday but for an uncharacteristically wayward drive or two.

Although not the longest hitter around, Morikawa was very much in the hunt at Augusta and Valhalla – where the bombers typically thrive, which shows he can comfortably mix it with the best in these conditions.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 13th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Tommy Fleetwood (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 73.5, Salary: $8,500)

When Koepka won at Shinnecock Hills, he was chased home by Tommy Fleetwood, whose ability to keep his ball on a tight leash in even the toughest of conditions came in very handy.

The Brit continues to play fine golf, following his T3 at The Masters with a series of T21 finishes (or better), as well as a T26 at the PGA Championship, where he unusually for him lost strokes to the field on approach.

Accurate off the tee, excellent on approach, and with a reliable short game, Fleetwood isn’t a prolific winner by any means – but he has the game, and at a layout where flushers should thrive above all others, he certainly has a fighting chance of going close.

Key Stats:

• Bogey Avoidance – 8th
• Total Driving – 15th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 17th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 79.8, Salary: $8,000)

Although there’s a concern that injuries will be a problem whenever we draft Hideki, he also brings tremendous upside at classical golf courses that reward the most efficient.

His wins at Augusta and Riviera stand out in that regard, but he’s also thrived at the likes of TPC Sawgrass and Bay Hill too – perhaps excellent indicators of potential success at Pinehurst.

Matsuyama’s T8 at the Memorial Tournament was all the reassurance we needed that the Japanese ace is in good health – you can’t wing it around Colonial. He gained +1.26 strokes on the field on approach, while delivering positive short game numbers to go with accuracy off the tee.

A big time player, a fit and healthy Matsuyama can contend this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 3rd
• Scrambling – 6th
• Bogey Avoidance – 13th

Low-Tier Pick

Min Woo Lee (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 73.0, Salary: $7,300)

There’s no doubting Min Woo Lee’s status as a big game player.

Despite inconsistency on the TOUR, the Australian posted two major top-20s in 2023 (making the cut in 3/4), and he’s gone T22 and T26 respectively in The Masters and PGA Championship this year.

So, as low-tier picks go in the majors, we seem to be backing a reliable horse in Min Woo, whose excellence has also extended to technical layouts like PGA National (T2, Cognizant Classic) and Colonial (T24, Charles Schwab Challenge) in recent times.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 2nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 46th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 50th

Sleeper Pick for the US Open

Billy Horschel (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 69.0, Salary: $6,600)

We’ve mentioned Florida Swing form as a potential guide for success this week, so Billy Horschel has to be in our thoughts.

A former runner-up at Bay Hill, Horschel banked a T9 finish at the Cognizant Classic earlier this season to frank his class on home soil.

His form has been good for a couple of months now, with a win at the Corales Puntacana matched by three finishes of T24 or better in his last three starts – where typically efficient tee-to-green ball-striking has been followed with supreme confidence on the greens.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 4th
• Scrambling – 13th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 47th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the US Open

Kurt Kitayama (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 65.5, Salary: $6,500)

What if there was a player available at $6,500 who, in 2024 alone, had finished T19 at the PLAYERS, T26 at the PGA Championship, and T35 at The Masters?

You’d certainly be inclined to have Kurt Kitayama on side, whose ability to raise his game at the big events marks him out as a sleeper pick of some repute.

It’s true that he was woeful at the Memorial, but if you track his long-term form you’ll note that his off-week on approach was an anomaly – his ball-striking is, for the most part, outstanding.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 10th
• SG: Approach – 32nd
• Bogey Avoidance – 74th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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