Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2024 TOUR Championship

2024 TOUR Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

If timing is everything in sport, Keegan Bradley has rocketed up the FedEx Cup standings with Swiss precision.

He barely scraped into the field at last week’s BMW Championship, but went on to win at Castle Pines, and now sits fourth on the starting strokes leaderboard at the TOUR Championship – just four shots behind the leader, Scottie Scheffler.

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Although the top of the leaderboard changed hands numerous times, with the likes of Adam Scott and Ludvig Aberg amongst the interested parties, it was Bradley that best took to the unique conditions at Castle Pines, perched 6,000ft above sea level in Colorado’s contours and with some sizable elevation changes to boot.

A sublime approach shot into 17 on Sunday ensured he took a two-stroke lead into the final hole, and while he made a pig’s ear of that, the future Ryder Cup captain was still able to see out a one-shot victory – his seventh on the PGA TOUR. 

It means that the starting leaderboard is set for this week’s TOUR Championship. As you may know, this is indicative of each player’s position in the FedEx Cup standings, with only the top-30 qualifying for the seasonal curtain call.

They will tee off at East Lake with the following starting scores:

• -10 – Scottie Scheffler
• -8 – Xander Schauffele
• -7 – Hideki Matsuyama
• -6 – Keegan Bradley
• -5 – Ludvig Aberg
• -4 – Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay
• -3 – Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, Tony Finau
• -2 – Byeong Hun An, Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Akshay Bhatia, Robert MacIntyre
• -1 – Billy Horschel, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Matthieu Pavon, Taylor Pendrith
• E – Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Thomas

Ordinarily, you might think that giving Scheffler a head start on the rest means that the TOUR Championship is over before it’s really begun, but his game is not at its insane height right now, and it’s worth remembering that he had that same -10 lead last year….and didn’t really get anywhere near converting it into a win.

East Lake is a long, second shot course where those who excel with irons and wedges in hand will likely make the best of it. There’s little danger off the tee, and while the small Bermuda greens are well protected by sand, run-offs, and false fronts, this is still an easy enough layout to overcome.

This is an interesting week too, because most sportsbooks will offer two sets of lines for the TOUR Championship: the starting strokes market based upon the leaderboard above, and a standard 72-hole scoring market that you bet on with any typical PGA TOUR event.

And there’s perhaps intriguing positions to be taken in both….

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Starting Strokes Betting

Scheffler’s performance at the BMW Championship was his worst tee-to-green effort anywhere since the summer of 2022, and he also lost -0.43 to the field putting.

Maybe that will be a one week aberration, quite possible given the unique test of Castle Pines, and he will be back to his best at just the right time this week.

But Scheffler doesn’t have a great record at East Lake – just one top-10 in four trips, from a 72-hole scoring standpoint, and so clearly there’s an opportunity to take him on in this starting strokes betting market.

But with who? Xander Schauffele is obviously the best placed, both in terms of his position on the starting leaderboard and his obvious love of East Lake – his stroke average in seven trips is an outstanding 66.96.

However, odds of less than 3/1 don’t really scream of a slam dunk in terms of a value betting opportunity.

Hideki Matsuyama – 12/1 – Obviously, having withdrawn from the BMW Championship with a back injury, there’s an element of risk betting on Hideki Matsuyama this week.

But he might just have figured out that he couldn’t really improve his position on the starting leaderboard this week anyway without winning the BMW, so instead took the opportunity to rest up and prepare for East Lake instead.

After winning the St. Jude Championship, the Japanese star played a fine opening round at Castle Pines prior to his withdrawal, so his game is definitely in the right shape to haul in Scheffler’s lead – let’s hope his back is similarly good shape, too.

Viktor Hovland – 80/1 – From a position of -2 on the starting leaderboard, it would take a minor miracle for Viktor Hovland to win the TOUR Championship for a second successive year.

But he finished five clear of Xander Schauffele last year, and a mammoth eleven ahead of Wyndham Clark in third, so clearly Hovland’s love of East Lake extends to him overcoming such a huge obstacle.

72-Hole Scoring Betting

Readers of our DFS column will know that we’re sweet on Billy Horschel (35/1) and Keegan Bradley (40/1) this week, and both represent fine value in the 72-hole scoring market – that is, where all players start on level par as normal.

Others catch the eye too….

Sepp Straka – 60/1 – The Austrian well and truly solved his putting woes at Castle Pines, gaining +1.46 strokes on the field with his flat stick – the third-best performance in the entire field.

To offer some additional context, prior to that trip to the jaunty BMW Championship host, Straka had gained strokes on approach on the field in nine of his previous ten completed outings.

Put those two things together and Straka will surely be onto a good thing; his scoring record at East Lake – 67.38 in eight rounds – certainly attests as much.

Akshay Bhatia – 80/1 – With his ability to spike in his approach play, Akshay Bhatia has the game to compete with the very best in the world.

He’s inconsistent, which can lead to frustration, but that’s built into the price of a player who has otherwise shown a fondness for Donald Ross designs.

He sat T9 at the halfway stage of the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst, and he finished runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic this year; Detroit GC being another of Ross’ layouts.

Tom Hoge – 80/1 – Tom Hoge did Tom Hoge things at Castle Pines: gaining a mammoth 2.15 strokes on the field on approach, which was the best in the field.

For a second shot merchant like Hoge, that doesn’t come as a huge surprise. But his skillset will get another chance to shine at East Lake, where the switch to Bermuda greens may also prove fruitful in his quest for the TOUR Championship title.

To whet the appetite some more, Hoge averaged 66.75 across his four rounds at East Lake in 2022 – if he can repeat that in 2024, he might just go close to lifting the trophy.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the TOUR Championship here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2024)

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