Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 TOUR Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 TOUR Championship

TOUR Championship Fantasy Preview

You’ve probably heard the fable of the hare and the tortoise, and while Keegan Bradley won’t like the comparison, it’s more than apt.

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He qualified for the BMW Championship as the 50th player in a field of 50, squeaking in by the matter of a few points. But that didn’t matter to Bradley, who went out and won the tournament at the quirky Castle Pines club anyway.

Sitting 6,000ft above sea level and with some significant elevation changes, Bradley gained almost double the strokes on the field with his ball striking than any other player that completed all 72 holes.

And when you’re hitting the ball as pure as that, you can putt to an average level – exhibit A, his three-putt for bogey at the last – and still run out a winner against an elite field.

Keegan’s late, late show could yet have ramifications for the outcome of the FedEx Cup too. He has crashed his way up to fourth in the standings, which means he will tee off in this week’s TOUR Championship just four strokes behind Scottie Scheffler on the staggered start leaderboard.

Who knows: maybe the future Ryder Cup captain will show his players how to get the job done?

Last Week’s Results

Last week it was the big Keegan surprise! 

Although our 1-2 punch was Xander and Fleetwood (both T5), it wasn’t the 1-2 finish we needed to cash in big – but overall our DFS rosters still faired pretty well with five of our seven top-picks finishing T13 or better at the BMW Championship.

TOUR Championship Field

As you may be aware by now, where the players finished in the FedEx Cup standings reflects in their starting position on the TOUR Championship leaderboard.

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The best-performing 29 players will be looking to rein in the FedEx Cup standings leader Scottie Scheffler, who gets a two-stroke head start on the rest thanks to his incredible efforts throughout the campaign.

• -10 – Scottie Scheffler
• -8 – Xander Schauffele
• -7 – Hideki Matsuyama
• -6 – Keegan Bradley
• -5 – Ludvig Aberg
• -4 – Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay
• -3 – Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, Tony Finau
• -2 – Byeong Hun An, Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Akshay Bhatia, Robert MacIntyre
• -1 – Billy Horschel, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Matthieu Pavon, Taylor Pendrith
• E – Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Thomas

This Week’s Course Preview

It was back in 1913 that Donald Ross completely remodelled East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. He created a layout befitting of the TOUR Championship designation.

George Cobb and Rees Jones are just some of the other architects to work on the layout in the intervening years, but the key change came when the greens were changed to Bermuda – making it somewhat more difficult to score on.

Playing to around 7,346 yards for its Par 70, East Lake is a long old test that is well protected by trees and bunkers, while the small Bermuda greens provide a tricky target given that some boast tight run-offs and false fronts. 

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Even accounting for those challenges, East Lake can be pretty easy to tame in benign weather conditions. For context, Viktor Hovland went round in -19 last year, as did Xander Schauffele. It’s not as if birdies are in short supply.

Although there aren’t many holes at East Lake that stand out as unique in any way, the eighteenth is a fun way to end a round – although it can play up to 590 yards, in reality course officials will want to entire field to be able to attack the green in two shots; setting up a potential grandstand finish.

Weather Forecast for Atlanta, GA

It seems to be Groundhog Day on the weather front no matter where the PGA TOUR travels right now, with warm temperatures and the potential for rain once again dominating the forecast.

There’s a settled start to the week, and Thursday looks to be shaping up nicely as per the early predictions: temperatures of 95 degrees matched by sunny spells and benign winds.

And then things get a little more interesting. Heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms feature in the forecast for Friday through Sunday, with temperatures of around 91 degrees and single-digit wind speeds.

But, as ever, it’s impossible to predict how much rain will fall – if any – and when.

ATLANTA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the TOUR Championship

Although you would think that giving Scottie Scheffler a head start in a tournament means curtains for everybody else, the 2023 TOUR Championship showed that not to be the case.

He held the lead at -10 heading into the tournament on the starting strokes leaderboard, but an opening round of 71 saw Scheffler slide down the standings after just 18 holes.

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The player in second place on the starting leaderboard, Viktor Hovland, started in steady fashion with a round of 68, but it wasn’t long before the Norwegian put on the afterburners: he carded rounds of -6, -4, and -7 thereafter.

East Lake was in forgiving mood 12 months ago, with rounds of 61 from Collin Morikawa and 62 from Xander Schauffele, who matched Hovland with the tournament-best combined score of -19.

However, with the starting strokes applied, it meant that Hovland ran out a winner by five shots to lift the FedEx Cup.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s TOUR Championship

The TOUR Championship is far from ideal for DFS purposes, let’s be honest. But even so, there’s some handsome prizes to be won this week….

• GOLF TOUR $555 Signature Hole Satellite: Here’s something a little different: for $9 entry, you could win a ticket into a huge $555 Signature Hole contest at a forthcoming PGA TOUR event. Only 72 teams will be battling it out for the prize.

• GOLF TOUR Satellite to NFL $100 Fantasy Football Millionaire: Football fans can also benefit from this $3, single entry contest. The best of the 39 teams will win a ticket into a $100 NFL Fantasy Football Millionaire game.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

If we look at the list of the best performers at East Lake over the years, we get a flavor of what it takes to succeed there.

Of the players that have played at least eight rounds at the venue, those with the lowest scoring average are Schauffele, Hovland, Sepp Straka, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy.

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Each of those is a world-class golfer, of course, but at their best it’s their iron and wedge game that particularly shines – evidence that East Lake is, as has been suggested many times before, a second shot course.

There’s not much to worry about off the tee, and the Bermuda greens are as fast and as pure as you would expect, so it’s all about hitting those relentless approach shots close to the flag….and making some putts, of course.

Some other Donald Ross constructions may act as insight. He was on design duties for Detroit GC, home of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Bryson DeChambeau, the 2020 Rocket winner, won the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst and finished T4 at the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club – both Ross designs.

Cameron Davis is a two-time Rocket champion that finished T4 at Oak Hill, Tony Finau is a Rocket winner and finished T3 at Pinehurst, while Patrick Cantlay is a former Rocket runner-up who finished top-10 at both Pinehurst and Oak Hill.

Viktor Hovland, one of the best in the business at East Lake, also has a T2 to his name at Oak Hill.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the TOUR Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the TOUR Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Xander Schauffele (Odds: 5/2, FPPG: 95.4, Salary: $11,000)

If we look at the 72-hole scoring only, Xander Schauffele’s formline at East Lake reads 1-6-3-1-2-7-1.

It’s a remarkable record that highlights his love of this venue in all its glory, and sitting second on the starting strokes leaderboard we simply have to have Schauffele in our lineup this week.

He didn’t set the world alight in a T5 finish at Castle Pines, but few truly showed their best at such a whacky golf course – otherwise, Schauffele has two major wins to his name in 2024 and was T2 at the St. Jude, where he delivered a fantastic all-round performance.

With Scheffler somewhat wobbling – his tee-to-green effort at the BMW Championship was his worst in a PGA TOUR event in more than two years, Schauffele is perhaps the more likely victor.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 2nd
• Total Driving – 5th
• SG: Approach – 5th

Top Tier Pick #2

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 65.8, Salary: $8,700)

It would be fair to say that Keegan Bradley’s win at the BMW Championship came as something of a surprise – his formline leading in read 59-22-46-MC.

But he was dialled in so intently with his ball-striking that he was able to defeat an elite field despite losing strokes to the rest putting.

If he takes a similar level of tee-to-green expertise to East Lake, it’s not impossible to imagine him doing something similar – but this time, he’ll benefit from the Bermuda greens that have, as a general rule, helped Bradley to deliver the best putting performances of his career.

With a lofty position on the starting strokes leaderboard, Bradley is one of the few in the field with a genuine shot at winning the FedEx Cup this week.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 9th
• SG: Approach – 36th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 54th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Viktor Hovland (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 67.7, Salary: $8,300)

Of all the players that have played at East Lake four times or more, only Schauffele has a better scoring record at the venue than Viktor Hovland – not Scheffler, not Rory McIlroy, nobody.

The Norwegian went on a rampage here 12 months ago, and while it will be difficult to replicate the -19 he fired then, the way his irons and wedges are dialled in, it’s certainly not impossible.

Hovland has gained at least +1.00 on the field on approach in his last two starts; be that the funky altitude-adjusted Castle Pines, or the rather more traditional TPC Southwind.

Aside from an aberration on the UK Swing in the summer, Hovland’s approach game has been elite for months, while his putting is solid enough to convert all of the birdie chances he is creating.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off the Tee – 11th
• SG: Approach – 21st
• Birdie Average – 22nd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Tommy Fleetwood (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 74.3, Salary: $7,600)

Whether Tommy Fleetwood believes he can win the FedEx Cup from his starting position on the TOUR Championship leaderboard only he knows, but his game is in the kind of place from which he can achieve remarkable things.

Approach play gains on the field of +1.25 and +1.76 at the Olympics and St. Jude Championship respectively are indicative of his hot hand, and he once against bested the field average in this department at the idiosyncratic Castle Pines.

A return to positive putting numbers, following a poor turn with the flat stick at the St. Jude, also bodes well for the Englishman, who will be looking to sign off on his campaign on a high.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 10th 
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 22nd
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 31st

Low-Tier Pick

Shane Lowry (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 72.7, Salary: $7,300)

For a player to shoot up the leaderboard from a lowly starting position, they will need to make birdies – and lots of them – this week.

That means hitting approaches close on a consistent basis, and then making some putts. The first part will come easily to Shane Lowry.

His iron and wedge game has been first-class since the start of the summer, and it’s that which gives him a fighting chance of climbing the leaderboard this week.

As for putting, his flat stick has been cold lately. That said, a man that has set up home in Florida is, unsurprisingly, at his best on Bermuda greens, so perhaps the switch can see Lowry’s putter heat up in Georgia.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 10th
• Total Driving – 12th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 26th

Sleeper Pick for the TOUR Championship

Billy Horschel (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 69.0, Salary: $7,100)

Billy Horschel is playing some of his best golf in years right now, and there’s no reason to suggest that won’t carry through to this week.

His fine effort at the British Open was backed by top-10s at the Wyndham Championship and St. Jude, so evidently he is loving life out on the course right now.

The secret is that he has found a major improvement in his approach play lately, which is particularly provident of a return to an East Lake layout where he won the 72-hole scoring in 2014 and finished second in 2018.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 3rd
• SG: Putting – 17th
• Total Driving – 36th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the TOUR Championship

Aaron Rai (Odds: 500/1, FPPG: 72.1, Salary: $6,400)

Approach play gains on the field of +2.17, on his way to winning the Wyndham Championship, and +2.25 when T16 at the St. Jude Championship reveal Aaron Rai’s current hot hand.

In truth, he’s been in fine form since the start of May. Since then, four top-10 finishes on the PGA TOUR, as well as that Wyndham Championship win already mentioned, indicate where his game is at.

The TOUR Championship is all new territory, but the nature of the test at East Lake should be to his liking – what a way to sign off on a breakthrough season for the Brit.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 6th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 7th
• SG: Off the Tee – 32nd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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