Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Procore Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Procore Championship

Procore Championship Fantasy Preview

The main part of the 2024 PGA TOUR season is over, but here comes the bonus that is the Fall Swing.

The dust has barely settled on Scottie Scheffler’s – who else!? – triumph in the FedExCup. The peculiarity of the TOUR Championship format was revealed once more as Scheffler, on the back of one of the greatest seasons in modern golf, saw his dominance reflected in a paltry two-shot lead on the staggered start leaderboard.

And that, incredibly, was wiped out on the very first hole when Scheffler made bogey and Xander Schauffele made birdie – thus rendering the world number one’s 2024 heater essentially pointless.

In the end, Scheffler righted himself to end the TOUR Championship four shots clear of the field to claim the FedExCup, with Collin Morikawa enjoying the consolation prize of having shot the best 72-hole score.

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They’ll be back in action later in September at the Presidents Cup, but in the meantime it’s back to the grind for many of those that finished outside the top 50 in the FedExCup standings.

Tournament winners on the Fall Swing gain a two-year exemption onto the TOUR, while those who finish in the top 10 of the rankings earning a spot in next year’s Signature Events.

At the other end of the spectrum, those who finish 125 or higher will lock in their playing privileges for 2026; those at 126 or lower will lose their TOUR card, and perhaps have to rely on invitations, qualifying, or Q School to return to the big league.

So there’s plenty to play for in the eight Fall Swing events that will carry us through to the end of the year; starting with the Procore Championship (formerly known as the Fortinet Championship) this week.

Procore Championship Field

The FedExCup fields are fluid, in that those ranked 51st and higher don’t have to play in an event if they don’t want to. Similarly, those inside the top-50 can still tee it up if they wish.

So it’s no great surprise to see Max Homa and Sahith Theegala in the field. They have won the last three editions of this event (Homa x2, Theegala x1), and will be looking to tune up ahead of the Presidents Cup.

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That also explains the entries of Wyndham Clark and Corey Conners, while Eric Cole and Tom Hoge round out those that are playing because they want to, not because they need to.

Min Woo Lee and Mackenzie Hughes will be looking to find some form ahead of the Presidents Cup, while the likes of Maverick McNealy, Keith Mitchell, Lucas Glover, and Nick Taylor are amongst those hoping to end 2024 on a high.

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s off to Napa for the resumption of PGA TOUR action, with the North Course at the Silverado Country Club taking on hosting duties.

Designed by Johnny Miller, Silverado first hosted a PGA TOUR event in 1968, the Kaiser International Open Invitational, until 1980. But it wouldn’t return until 2014 with the Frys.com Open. The event has had several name changes since – Safeway Open, Fortinet Championship etc – but Silverado has remained as host throughout.

Like many Californian, Poa Annua tracks, scoring is somewhat dictated by the conditions, but winning scores of -21 – as Theegala fired 12 months ago – are not uncommon.

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Measuring 7,123 yards for its Par 72, the North Course is a traditional track in the sense that the four Par 5s are the easiest holes to play, while the quartet of Par 3s are amongst the hardest; they each averaged over par for the week in 2023. 

The fifth hole, a Par 5 measuring just 538 yards, gives pretty much every player in the field a crack at making eagle. The eighteenth is also something of a risk-reward Par 5, so it’s possible that the destination of the trophy could change hands on the very last hole of the tournament.

The North Course boasts thin fairways, but very accommodating rough and easy-to-hold greens: for context, Theegala found just 44% of fairways on the week last year, but still registered 73% GIR.

Note the switch to Poa Annua greens too; a surface loved by some and detested by others.

Weather Forecast for Napa, CA

It’s an Indian summer for Napa, with sunny spells and – famous last words – minimal chance of rain this week.

As per the early forecast, the tournament should open up with sultry temperatures of 84 degrees on Thursday, and while that dips to 77 come Sunday, it’s still a perfectly pleasant week.

There’s minimal chance of rain all week according to the predictions, but just watch out for the wind: that could reach 12mph, and stronger at local level, on Sunday.

NAPA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Procore Championship

There was a bomb-and-gouge masterclass from Sahith Theegala 12 months ago on his way to clinching a maiden solo win on the PGA TOUR.

The Californian ranked second in the field for SG: Putting and third for SG: Around-the-Green, which offers a pretty straightforward explanation of where this tournament was won.

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He opened up with a round of 68 – some five shots behind first-round leader Lucas Herbert, but thrust his way into title contention with a 64 on the Friday; the best round of the day.

A steady 67 on Saturday gave Theegala a two-shot lead to take into the final round, with Justin Thomas, Cam Davis, and Seong-hyeon Kim the closest company on -15.

That trio would need to play an outstanding final round, or hope Theegala faltered at the finishing line under the pressure of a maiden title. In the end, neither outcome materialized.

Thomas shot 72, including four bogeys on the front nine, while Davis and Kim were solid but unspectacular.

So Theegala was left to celebrate in front of his home fans in the Golden State, carding 68 – with seven birdies and three bogeys – on his way to a two-shot win.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Procore Championship

Although it’s hard to predict how exactly a player’s short game will fare on any given week, it’s still the right foundation for our roster build at the Procore Championship. 

But such variance also requires caution, so here’s the lower-key contests we’re targeting this week:

• GOLF TOUR $100k Drive the Green: Given the variable nature of this event and its weak field, the door is ajar to an unlikely roster of players winning. Maybe that affords us opportunities in the classic $5 entry game, which boasts multiple-entry and a top prize of $25k.

• GOLF TOUR $10k Albatross: If you prefer to be a little more conservative in weeks like this, here’s a $12 single-entry game in which just 980 teams will compete. There’s still a handy top prize of $1,000 to battle it out for.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

The North Course at Silverado is something of a curiosity: it’s scoreable and birdies abound, however most in the field will be hitting plenty of approaches from the rough, and missing as many as 25% or more of greens in regulation.

So being able to grind out birdie opportunities from the slightly longer grass is key this week, as is a strong performance from a player’s short game: last year, four of the top-five finishers on the leaderboard ranked top-10 for SG: Around-the-Green, and that’s not uncommon here.

What you do off the tee doesn’t seem to be important at Silverado, although the names of Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, and Kevin Tway on the trophy will have some DFS games calling in the bomb (and gouge) squad.

The real money is made around and on the greens, so drafting reliable chippers and scramblers should be the backbone of our build this week, as well as those who have shown a fondness for Poa Annua greens in the past.

In terms of correlating courses, there’s no harm in focusing on those tracks with small greens that are frequently missed – these tend to favor those with a consistent short game. 

Think Augusta (Homa and Theegala have thrived there, as has former Procore runner-up Danny Willett), TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town, and Muirfield Village. Riviera, meanwhile, is a tight, Californian bomb track laid with Poa Annua greens.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Procore Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Procore Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Sahith Theegala (Odds: 11/1, FPPG: 73.9, Salary: $10,600)

It’s amazing that Sahith Theegala was able to record top-10 finishes at the Scottish Open and 3M Open this summer, despite losing strokes to the field with his ball-striking.

That shows the enduring class of his short game, which as we’ve learned is a vital weapon at Silverado. And besides, his long game was on point at the TOUR Championship last time out.

Some +0.92 strokes gained on an elite field off-the-tee, and +1.59 on approach, reveals why Theegala was able to challenge Scheffler and Morikawa for honors at the top of the leaderboard; his final round of 64 in particular a joy to watch.

By our reckoning, Theegala has been one of the best players on the PGA TOUR in recent years in terms of Poa Annua performance. And while he’s not always the most convincing of top-tier picks, there’s no track to which he’s better suited than Silverado – as a formline of 1-6-47-14 here attests.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 6th
• SG: Putting – 34th
• Approaches from Inside 100 Yards (rough) – 54th

Top Tier Pick #2

 J.J. Spaun (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 57.5, Salary: $9,000)

It’s funny that, at his best, J.J. Spaun hits plenty of fairways and boasts real quality with irons and wedges in hand. It’s a recipe for success anywhere….except, to some extent, Silverado.

Spaun has played here for the last eight seasons in a row, missing two cuts and finishing outside the top-40 on three other occasions.

But there’s T9 and T11 finishes in the mix too, so we’re just going to have to accept that the Californian might be a boom-or-bust kinda pick this week.

The upside? His approach play has been outstanding lately, and he’s finished T3 and T9 in his last two outings at the Wyndham Championship and 3M Open.

Key Stats:

• Rough Proximity – 6th
• SG: Approach – 13th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 65th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Eric Cole (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 61.3, Salary: $8,700)

There were times during his Rookie of the Year run in 2022-23 that Eric Cole looked as likely as anybody to win on the PGA TOUR.

There was, understandably, a regression thereafter, but Cole signed off the main part of the 2024 season in fine fettle – suggesting a renaissance is afoot.

His approach play and short game numbers have been steadily improving since the start of summer, with three top-10s in his last seven starts confirming that Cole is on the up and up.

A Californian born and raised, we have no worries about his penchant for putting on POA Annua, while any track where driving is less of an importance (Cole’s achilles heel) means that the strengths in his game can shine.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 3rd
• SG: Putting – 47th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 49th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Matt Kuchar (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 47.8, Salary: $7,900)

To offer some context of the veteran’s chances this week, when the U.K. sportsbooks revealed their Procore Championship odds, Matt Kuchar was priced at anything from 28/1 to 70/1.

After a while, that had settled to 60/1 and is now represented by a mid-tier salary point here, which seems more than fair enough given Kooch’s chances this week.

A successful operator at Silverado – his last three visits have yielded a 7-12-36 formline, Kuchar arrives in Napa on the back of a close-run thing at the 3M Open, where he finished T3 and maybe ought to have won, plus a T12 turn at the Wyndham Championship.

Blessed with an elite short game that stands up to scrutiny on Poa Annua greens, can Kuchar go even better than at the 3M Open?

Key Stats:

• Rough Proximity – 15th
• SG: Putting – 18th 
• SG: Around-the-Green – 31st

Low-Tier Pick

Jacob Bridgeman (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 59.5, Salary: $7,400)

There’s an element of risk in backing a guy whose statistical excellence hasn’t quite been followed up with success on the course.

But Jacob Bridgeman, in his rookie year, heads to the Procore Championship having done something he’d never done before: banking consecutive top-20s on the PGA TOUR.

T12 at the Wyndham Championship, and T19 at the 3M Open, were built upon the foundations of much-improved ball-striking, which is eye-catching because his short game has been reliably good during this 2024 season: he ranks 15th for SG: Putting, and 33rd for Scrambling, this term.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 14th
• SG: Putting – 15th
• Scrambling – 33rd

Sleeper Pick for the Procore Championship

Trace Crowe (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 57.6, Salary: $6,900)

Having earned his spot on the PGA TOUR via Q School, Trace Crowe was chasing his tail from the get-go this season.

But his best performances have come in his last two outings, which suggests that the youngster has finally gotten to grips with life on the TOUR.

T7 at the Wyndham Championship last time out was his best PGA TOUR result, and yet T24 at the 3M Open just prior produced his best approach play numbers all season long. 

Factor in that his best putting performance of the campaign came on the Poa Annua greens at the Farmers Insurance Open, and we have a case, albeit a mild one, that Crowe can surpass expectations this week.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 13th
• Rough Proximity – 25th
• SG: Putting – 41st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Procore Championship

Ryan Moore (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 49.4, Salary: $6,800)

With four top-10s and a T17 to his name at Silverado, it would be fair to say that this is a part of the world that Ryan Moore enjoys playing his golf in.

It would also be fair to argue that his best days are behind him as a professional golfer, but even so Moore still ranked 22nd on the PGA TOUR for SG: Tee-to-Green in 2024; about as rudimentary evidence as you can get that a player is playing some good stuff over a prolonged period of time.

It’s true that putting remains something of an enigma code to the 41-year-old, but with such a fine record at Silverado, are we willing to agree that there’s something that he likes about these particular Poa Annua greens?

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 13th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 22nd
• Scrambling – 38th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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