Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2024 Hero World Challenge

2024 Hero World Challenge Fantasy Sleeper Report

It’s been a great year of golf on the PGA TOUR, although the Christmas gift that many fans of the sport around the world want is for the head honchos at the PGA and LIV Golf to bash their heads together, coming up with a resolution that brings the best players on the planet together in regular competition once more.

We can but wish.

In the meantime, the Hero World Challenge provides us with a final chance to bet on a traditional strokeplay event on the PGA TOUR in 2024.

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This is Tiger’s domain, with the Big Cat the avuncular tournament host and, occasionally, a player in the field. Alas, physical ailments will prevent him from teeing it up at the Albany Golf Course this week.

This layout, found on the Bahaman island of New Providence, is a unique affair. Measuring in the region of 7,400 yards for its Par 72. But this is no ordinary Par 72, with five Par 5s, five Par 3s, and the rest playing as Par 4s.

Two of those Par 4s are, depending on the wind, drivable too, so there’s a stack of birdie opportunities to be found, although it’s the conditions – the breeze is expected to pick up across the wind – that will ultimately define just how scorable Albany GC is… the winning score here has ranged from -16 to -25 here since the course took over hosting duties in 2015.

The key is to back players that can control their ball in the wind, both off the tee and on approach to the green (especially in the 175+ yard region). But the nature of the breeze also requires skill around the greens when GIR is missed, while a sure hand on Bermuda greens is also welcome.

The 20-man Hero World Challenge field features the defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, and 12 players that featured in the Presidents Cup, with tournament exemptions for the likes of Justin Thomas and Nick unlap.

There’s no long odds bombs this week given that there’s only 20 players in the field, but we can take a comprehensive look through the betting and pick out some nice value plays all the same:

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Scottie Scheffler (5/2)

He beat the field comprehensively here last year, and his formline at Albany GC now reads 1-2-2. He looks pretty much unstoppable in that sense, but a lack of competitive action – Scheffler hasn’t teed up in strokeplay golf since the TOUR Championship in September – may prove to be a factor. Or maybe we’re just clutching at straws.

Ludvig Aberg (12/1)

If the winner is not to be Scheffler, then perhaps Ludvig Aberg is the next most likely champion.

The Swede kicked off the rust at the RSM Classic a fortnight ago, where he finished a solid T17; his first start since knee surgery.

Aberg will presumably kick on from there, and while this will be his course debut this week, he has the perfect game for Albany GC: long and straight off the tee, he has class in the 175+ yard range on approach and is reliable around the greens; as evidenced by his solo second at The Masters earlier this year.

Patrick Cantlay (9/1) isn’t a regular fixture in this event, and while he found a bit of form towards the end of the main 2024 season, it’s now more than two years since he won on the PGA TOUR. Single digit odds therefore don’t hold much appeal.

Will the putter of Justin Thomas (12/1) behave this week? He’s lost strokes to the field on the greens in each of his last four starts, and while he finished T2 last time out at the ZOZO Championship, can he beat a field of this class while missing putts? The caveat is that his course form of 3-5-5-5 suggests he very much likes the greens at Albany.

Tom Kim (16/1)

Some of Tom Kim’s best work has come in Links style conditions – T2 in the British Open of 2023 matched by finishes of solo third and T6 in the Scottish Open.

The Korean is an accurate sort with a low ball flight and a reliable short game, so it stands to reason that he would thrive in these conditions.

Despite being a low key, smiley kind of guy, Kim is a ferocious competitor – as seen at the Presidents Cup, and he will be prepared to grind it out if the wind does pick up over the weekend.

Sam Burns (16/1) just started to show his class again towards the end of the 2024 season, and if he plays like he did at the St Jude or BMW Championship, he could go close. But finishes of 16-12 here in his last two visits, in small fields remember, would be a concern.

Does Russell Henley (16/1) have the firepower to beat this class of field? The man from Georgia is a fine wind player with all the ingredients to thrive at Albany GC, but this is his course debut, and it’s been a long old time since he beat world-class opposition.

With top-tens to his name in the British Open and The Masters, Sungjae Im (18/1) has a strong foundation for success at Albany GC. A win in the Honda Classic confirms his ability to grind out a victory in high winds too, and the Korean promises accuracy off the tee and a reliable short game. He’s a contender this week, for sure.

Wyndham Clark (20/1) won at Pebble Beach this year, so coastal conditions are to his liking. He will need to improve his accuracy off the tee to have a chance this week, however, and the fact he finished 19th out of 20 here a year ago does not inspire confidence.

Sahith Theegala (22/1) is a mercurial talent. He has finished runner-up in three coastal events – the RSM Classic, RBC Heritage, and The Sentry, and clearly has the game to rival the very best. But he runs hot and cold, and that inconsistency can be off-putting to bettors. It wouldn’t be a shock if he won this week, but then it wouldn’t be a surprise if he finished down the field on debut, either.

In theory, Albany GC is the ideal golf course for the game of Jason Day (25/1). But the Australian isn’t as consistent as he once was, and his approach play in 2024 has been average at best. It would take a huge turnaround in fortunes for him to beat this field.

Akshay Bhatia (28/1) enjoyed a breakout year in 2024, winning his first ‘proper’ PGA TOUR event at the Texas Open. The left-hander is a sublime talent, and finished T2 at a Japanese Tour event in November… more match practice than most in this field have. Bhatia has even won in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour, but like Theegala he has a habit of not playing well when he is expected to.

Cameron Young (28/1) is blessed both with immense talent and an empty trophy cabinet, which makes him a hard back at short odds from one week to the next. A lover of Links golf (back-to-back top-tens at the British Open), Young will still need to hit more fairways than he normally does this week to have any chance.

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Robert MacIntyre (28/1)

Most of the winners of the Hero World Challenge has been exceptional players in the wind, and so it’s worth taking a chance on Robert MacIntyre this week.

Born and raised in Scotland, it goes without saying that MacIntyre is comfortable in a breeze, and that’s a skillset that has taken him to wins on both sides of the Atlantic in 2024.

An active figure in the conclusion of the DP World Tour calendar, MacIntyre has played more golf than most in this field lately, and that action could yet prove vital at an event when many won’t have played competitively in three months.

Accuracy is a virtue at Albany GC, so Aaron Rai (30/1) is certainly worthy of consideration. The Brit won his maiden PGA TOUR title at the Wyndham Championship, and has Links pedigree too. However, since winning the Wyndham he’s recorded just one top-ten finish, and missed the cut last time out in Spain.

Keegan Bradley (40/1) has some prior form at Albany GC, but our overriding feeling is that he doesn’t seem to enjoy exposed, Links style golf. His win at the BMW Championship was also something of an anomaly in an otherwise mediocre time of things since the summer.

Brian Harman (40/1)

Although a T25 finish at the RSM Classic doesn’t read particularly well, it’s noteworthy that Brian Harman was on the wrong side of the draw bias. But he stuck around, and a closing 64 on the Sunday was a fine way to sign off.

The former British Open champion has the credentials to thrive at Albany GC, and finished a rock-solid eighth here a year ago.

If the wind does pick up over the weekend on New Providence Island, Harman will be in his element.

It’s been a year of firsts for Nick Dunlap (40/1), who won as both an amateur and a professional on the PGA TOUR in 2024. But he seems to be an all-or-nothing type of player right now, and it seems doubtful that he is quite ready to down this class of field in unfamiliar conditions quite yet.

Sepp Straka (50/1) was added to the field after Tony Finau withdrew on Monday. The Austrian finished solo second here 12 months ago, although his most recent form – MC-29-38-27 – does not hint at a repeat this week.

The outsider this week is Matthieu Pavon (80/1), who shocked most when winning the Farmers Insurance Open in January. Since then, it’s been a fallow time for the Frenchman, and he will likely be outclassed in this company.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Hero World Challenge here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2024-2025)

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