Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Hero World Challenge

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Hero World Challenge

The Hero World Challenge Fantasy Preview

Can you remember Chris Kirk’s win at The Sentry in January?

It seems like a lifetime ago that the PGA TOUR season got underway, but after eleven months of hard slog, Maverick McNealy signed off on the 2024 campaign in the best possible way by winning his maiden title at the RSM Classic.

The Californian has added tee-to-green chops to go with his perennial putting prowess, and he finally made good on his promise with his win in a howling wind on St. Simon’s Island, booking his spot at The Masters, PGA Championship, and PLAYERS Championship in 2025 for good measure.

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Elsewhere, there was good news for Daniel Berger and Joel Dahmen, who both finishes inside the top-125 of the FedEx Fall standings and therefore kept their PGA TOUR cards. But there was disappointment for Wesley Bryan and the Coody twins, amongst others, who finished outside those spots and will now resume their careers somewhere else… most likely the Korn Ferry Tour.

All that’s left to wrap up the year is a couple of invitational events, starting with Tiger’s annual jolly to the Bahamas – the Hero World Challenge – this week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week at Sea Island we had a solid three guys finish in the Top 11 including Nicolas Echavarria with his incredible T2 finish. 

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The Hero World Challenge Field

Unfortunately, Tiger himself won’t be playing at the Albany Golf Course this week as he continues to rehabilitate from surgery.

But the 20-man field is headed by Scottie Scheffler, who will look to defend the title he won in such convincing fashion 12 months ago.

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He will be joined in the Bahamas by a stack of his Presidents Cup teammates: Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Russell Henley, and Sahith Theegala.

Leading the way for Europe will be Ludvig Aberg and Robert MacIntyre, while Sungjae Im, Jason Day, and Tom Kim make up the ‘rest of the world’ contingent.

Three players – Day, Justin Thomas, and Nick Dunlap – have been given exemptions by Tiger to tee it up.

This Week’s Course Preview

We’re on an island playing by the coast, so as ever it’s the weather that shapes how the Hero World Challenge will play out.

But the Albany Golf Course on New Providence Island is easy enough to conquer even in the windiest of conditions, for the simple reason that this is many to be a gentle, exhibition-like golf tournament in the sun.

This is a Par 72 track, measuring around 7,400 yards depending on which tees are used, but with an unusual routing: there’s five Par 5s, eight Par 4s, and five Par 3s.

This Ernie Els design blends elements of resort golf with classic sandbelt courses, the like of which are typically found in Australia. There’s huge bunkers, but these are typically shallow, and manmade sand dunes lining the property.
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The Bermuda greens are an average size and receptive in nature, so with little to trouble the players from tee-to-green, it really is all about the weather on New Providence Island that determines how easy the course plays.

In 2023, ten of the holes averaged under par for the week, with the Par 5s at three, six, eleven, and fifteen amongst the easiest of the lot (the 632-yard ninth was somewhat more difficult).

The seventh and fourteenth are drivable Par 4s too, if the wind is blowing in the right direction, so birdie opportunities about at Albany Golf Course.

Weather Forecast for Albany, Bahamas

The history books tell us that the weather forecast should only be considered a guide on New Providence Island; the wind can whip up into a zephyr, or die down completely, seemingly in the blink of an eye.

For the record, it’s going to be sunny all week and pleasingly warm too; temperatures of around 73 degrees are expected.

As for the wind, it’s predicted to start off in the region of 10mph on Thursday and Friday, before picking up over the weekend and hitting 17mph… of course, it could be even stronger than that when you consider the gust factor.

NASSAU WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Hero World Challenge

At the halfway stage of the 2023 Hero World Challenge, just one stroke separated Scottie Scheffler and two former British Open champions, Jordan Spieth and Brian Harman.

But by the 54-hole stage, Scheffler had exerted his dominance on the field; his third round 65, matched only by Matt Fitzpatrick, was a monumental effort in breezy conditions.

So, heading into the final round, Scheffler (-16) held a three-shot lead over Fitzpatrick, and had a five-shot cushion over the rest of the field. And he just doesn’t lose from such a position.

A bogey-free 68 on Sunday closed the door, with Sepp Straka’s final round of 64 vaulting him up the leaderboard to solo second. After a pair of silver medals himself at Albany GC, Scheffler finally had his Hero World Challenge victory.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Hero World Challenge

It is, of course, quite unusual to draft a six-man lineup from a field of 20 players. So it’s very much single entry contests only this week, but that’s not to say that opportunities don’t abound…

• GOLF TOUR $6k Caddie: The budget play is this $5, single entry contest, which sees you battle 1,425 teams for the $600 top prize. There’s plenty of other sizable payouts to be won too
• PGA $10k Dogleg: If you have more of a bankroll to play with, this $33 entry game promises a jackpot prize of $1k… but there’s only 353 teams vying for the victory.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Hero World Challenge

The Hero World Challenge has been played at Albany Golf Course since 2015. Of the seven winners (Viktor Hovland has won here twice, while the 2020 edition was cancelled due to the pandemic), four have also prevailed in The Masters and six have a prior top-ten in the British Open to their name.

Those are both relevant correlations. Generally, you need to be pretty handy around the greens at Albany GC – especially when the wind picks up, and of course Augusta National is the ultimate test of chipping and getting up-and-down.

As for the British Open correlation, Albany GC is an exposed, Links-style course designed by a two-time British Open champion in Ernie Els. Having a good ground game, and playing well in the wind, is vital both in that major and in the Hero World Challenge.

We can also consider the unique routing of Albany GC. There’s five Par 5s at which the winning score will be heavily influenced, so therefore precision in the long iron and wood yardage (175+ yards) will be vital.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Hero World Challenge   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Hero World Challenge  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Ludvig Aberg (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 79.5, Salary: $10,000)

After coming back from a serious knee injury, there’s no real reason for Ludvig Aberg to play what is, essentially, an exhibition event.

There was the emotional pull of defending his RSM Classic title, of course, but the trip to the Bahamas? Clearly, the Swede is motivated to embark on the jaunt.

The Albany GC course should suit a long, straight hitter that has proven his mettle in the wind by winning the aforementioned RSM Classic, and the fact that the Swede chased Scheffler home at The Masters confirms that he has a reliable, inventive game around the greens; no bad thing this week.

Classy in the 175+ yard range, Aberg has all of the tools required to thrive at Albany GC.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 4th
• SG: Approach – 21st
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 23rd

Top Tier Pick #2

Justin Thomas (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 71.7, Salary: $9,600)

There have been occasional flashes that Justin Thomas is getting somewhere back to his best, and it’s quite possible that Albany GC – a track that J.T. has a love affair with – could provide the route to his long-awaited sixteenth PGA TOUR title.

In the last four years, Thomas has finished no lower than T5 in the Hero World Challenge, so he’s been very much knocking on the door of victory. Remember, some of those visits have coincided with his game being in the doldrums, too.

Although not the phenom he once was, J.T. has been playing well from tee-to-green for months; at the ZOZO Championship last time out, he gained a mammoth +3.65 on the field in that department.

Yes, the putter remains a problem, but look at his record at Albany GC: it’s fair to conclude he likes the roll of the greens here.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 3rd
• SG: Approach – 9th
• Birdie Average – 32nd

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Russell Henley (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 72.3, Salary: $8,800)

With career top-five finishes in The Masters and the British Open, Russell Henley is very much a box ticker this week.

He’s also a winner of the Sony Open and the Honda Classic, with additional victories in the breezy Houston and by the coast in Mexico. In short, a strong wind is of no concern to Henley.

A course debutant that hasn’t been seen since the TOUR Championship, there is an element of risk in drafting Henley this week. However, he will be low owned as a result, and there’s plenty of upside to this accurate, neat and tidy style at Albany GC.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 9th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 21st
• SG: Approach – 33rd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Sungjae Im (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 69.9, Salary: $7,800)

The weather forecast, should it prove correct, is predicting strong winds over the weekend. And that could play into the hands of Sungjae Im.

The Korean has already proven his pedigree by winning the Honda Classic; you don’t prevail at PGA National unless you can handle a breeze. It’s Im’s precise driving, and quality short game, that brings him good tidings when the wind blows.

The 26-year-old is also rock solid from 200+ yards on approach, which is helpful at Albany GC, and he has gained strokes on the field putting in each of his last nine PGA TOUR starts.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 25th
• Approaches from 200+ yards – 27th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 29th

Low-Tier Pick

Akshay Bhatia (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 65.7, Salary: $6,700)

Although drafting Akshay Bhatia comes with the possibility of a rollercoaster ride to follow, there’s also plenty of upside to the leftie.

He was last seen finishing T2 at the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament in Japan. That may seem like an unusual stop-off, but it’s an event won in the past by the likes of Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka, and Hideki Matsuyama, so Bhatia continues in a fine lineage.

A former winner in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour, Bhatia is an accurate sort whose putting has improved immeasurably in 2024, and both his PGA TOUR wins have come amidst a backdrop of strong winds.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 14th
• SG: Approach – 17th
• SG: Putting – 26th

Sleeper Pick for the Hero World Challenge

Brian Harman (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 68.4, Salary: $6,600)

We drafted Brian Harman as a sleeper pick for the Hero World Challenge a year ago, and he came up trumps with a T8 finish.

The left-hander, as a former British Open champion, is clearly adept at keeping his ball under tight control in the wind, and even in birdie fests like those presented by Albany GC, there’s still plenty of worth in the fairways-and-greens approach.

A battling T25 at the RSM Classic, where he found himself on the wrong side of the draw bias, was a handy way to shake off the rust of not playing for a while, with Harman closing out at Sea Island with a majestic round of 64.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 19th
• SG: Approach – 35th
• SG: Putting – 40th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Hero World Challenge

Matthieu Pavon (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 65.1, Salary: $6,000)

Even though his recent form doesn’t shout as much, there is definitely value in adding Matthieu Pavon to balance out our draft.

The Frenchman has shown plenty of glimpses of quality in his maiden year on the PGA TOUR. He won the Farmers Insurance Open – where hitting precise, long-range approaches is key, and finished solo third at Pebble Beach, solo fifth at Pinehurst No. 2 in the U.S. Open, and T12 at Augusta.

That formline shows his ability to flight his ball down in the wind, approach accurately from 175+ yards, and have the canny short game required to succeed in The Masters.

Pavon is inconsistent, as his season-long results show, but when he’s on he can contend with the best of players.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 53rd
• SG: Approach – 53rd
• SG: Putting – 71st

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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