Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 The Sentry

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 The Sentry

The 2025 Sentry Fantasy Preview

Happy new year!

The dawning of 2025 gives us all a chance to be better, happier, more successful, and any other verbs or adjectives that take your fancy.

The same, of course, applies to the world of golf, with lines drawn under what went on in 2024. There’s many new opportunities to succeed in the year ahead, and while we await some kind of resolution between the PGA TOUR and LIV Golf – who knows what 2025 has in store in that regard, there’s still business to be taken care of.

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First off, a jolly old jaunt to Hawaii for a two-week swing that culminates in the Sony Open next week, following The Sentry that gets underway on Thursday.

The Sentry is the artist formerly known as the Tournament of Champions, which once upon a time was only open to those that had won on the PGA TOUR the previous season. 

But now, it’s tournament winners and anyone in the world’s top 50 that didn’t win last year that scores an invite… adding quality and quantity to the annual curtain-raiser of the new campaign.

So who will kick off their 2025 in the best possible fashion?

The Sentry Field

It’s a new year, and a high-quality field will be dusting off their clubs and heading to the Kapalua resort in Maui, Hawaii.

Scottie Scheffler, naturally, would have led the way as the world number one and on the back of what has to be considered one of the best seasons in PGA TOUR history. 

However, he somehow managed to skewer his hand on a glass on Christmas Day, and was so badly cut he had to undergo surgery. He’ll be out of action for the foreseeable future.

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Others will want to take a slice of the Scheffler pie in 2025, including Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Ludvig Aberg, who will all be heading to Hawaii.

Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama will bring major-winning quality to the field, while first-time champions in 2024 – Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Taylor Pendrith, and Robert MacIntyre – will be hoping to carry on where they left off last year.

In fact, of the players that have qualified for The Sentry, only four – Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry – won’t be taking part.

This Week’s Course Preview

The Plantation Course at the Kapalua Resort is a somewhat unique way to kick off proceedings.

It’s a Par 73 for starters – you don’t get many of those on the itinerary, with three Par 3s and four Par 5s to go with the eleven Par 4s.

The track plays to around 7,450 yards, with wide open fairways giving everyone a chance to hit their approach shots from the short grass. However, note that the undulations of the fairways can see some players hit through them altogether.

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Making birdies is the order of the day, with large, smooth Bermuda greens lending themselves to a nice early year runout for the players. Cameron Smith broke all manner of records when winning here in 2022 with a score of -34, and since then the winning marks of Jon Rahm and Chris Kirk have been -27 and -29 respectively.

Four players made 30 or more birdies here 12 months ago, with 17 of the 18 holes averaging under par! Of them, the four Par 5s are comfortably the easiest holes on the real estate, with five and eighteen – some of the easiest holes on the PGA TOUR – yielding more eagles than bogeys in 2024.

The anomaly? The first hole, a 520-yard Par 4, which averaged over par and saw just 21 birdies made all tournament long.

Weather Forecast for Kapalua, HI

It’s an unusually wet start to the week in Maui, with rain forecast for Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

That looks set to continue into Thursday too, with a ‘chance of showers’ as per the forecast. The good news is that Friday through Sunday is looking far more sunny and traditionally Hawaiian.

The temperatures will hover around the 75-degree mark, while the wind speeds are not expected to get out of single digits mph. A rain softened, wind-free Plantation Course really will be at the mercy of these players.

KAPALUA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from The Sentry

In a field stacked with world-class talent, you perhaps wouldn’t have had Chris Kirk as your likely winner at The Sentry.

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The sportsbooks certainly didn’t – they made Kirk a 120/1 chance before the off, and having found himself three shots off the pace after the opening round, with the likes of Scheffler, Schauffele, and Morikawa above him, you would have got longer odds still.

But Kirk hung around, with 65 in round two and 66 in the third helping him to a one-shot lead over the rest heading into Sunday.

After poor rounds on Saturday, the likes of Scheffler, Morikawa, and Sungjae Im were out of the hunt, leaving Kirk to duke it out with the likes of Akshay Bhatia, Sahith Theegala, and Jordan Spieth.

Would Kirk hold them off? You bet he would, with five birdies on the front nine and three more on the second to win by one shot from Theegala.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s The Sentry

It’s small field golf, never the favorite of DFS players, but a Scheffler-less event does at least offer opportunities to draft a winning lineup without the ‘damned if I do, damned if I don’t’ mindset that comes when Scottie is in the field.

So let’s try to get 2025 off to a great start: here’s two contests to enter to get us up and running.

• GOLF TOUR $125k Drive the Green: DraftKings are seeing in the new year in style, pumping up the prize pools of their traditional weekly contests. This Drive the Green game, available at $5 per entry, comes with a $125,000 total kitty and a top payout of $25k to the winner.

• GOLF TOUR $500k Pitch & Putt: For those operating with more of a budget, this $20 game promises a jackpot payout of $100k to the winner… with many other sizable consolation prizes available.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Sentry

The winning score at the Plantation Course has ranged from -14 to -34 in recent years, which just shows you how weather dependent this layout is.

But with a benign forecast, a rain-softened Kapalua should once again yield to the players, which leaves one way to win here, and one way only: make birdies… and lots of them.

You don’t need to be a big-hitting young stud to get it done though, with Kirk and Harris English – the 2021 champion – more in the slow-and-steady mould when playing at their best. Only two players in the entire field averaged less than 300 yards here a year ago, which is due to those significant undulations.

What is non-negotiable is putting well, because you generally don’t make stacks of birdies – remember, it took 30+ to win here 12 months ago – if you’re missing on the greens.

If correlating courses are your bag, the Sony Open seems as good a place as any to begin your investigations. Justin Thomas and Cam Smith have won both events, while Kirk is a two-time runner-up at Waialae. Joaquin Niemann finished in second place at both tournaments just one week apart in 2021.

Perhaps the wind-affected Cognizant Classic is also worthy of consideration. Kirk and Thomas have won that event and The Sentry, while Gary Woodland has finished second at both too, and all since 2017.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the The Sentry   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the The Sentry  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Ludvig Aberg (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 79.5, Salary: $9,800)

We don’t know for sure how much of an impact the rain will have on the Plantation Course – if any, but hedging our bets, we might conclude that it will play longer than usual should the wet stuff fall in great quantity.

To that end, a big old bomber like Ludvig Aberg will have something of an edge on many in the field, and particularly so when you consider that he has the profile of somebody that should thrive in the conditions in Maui.

The Swede has an RSM Classic win to his name, plus a second place at Pebble Beach, which shows his ability to shoot low numbers by the coast, while strong showings in the Scottish Open and RBC Heritage also confirm Aberg’s comfort in weather-exposed environments.

A long driver that is world-class within wedge range, Aberg can – at his best – putt to a standard that means he can win anywhere, any time.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 21st
• Driving Distance – 22nd
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 23rd

Top Tier Pick #2

Justin Thomas (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 71.7, Salary: $9,700)

Having completed the Sentry-Sony Open win double, Justin Thomas’ Hawaiian Swing credentials cannot be questioned.

In fact, he has won twice at Kapalua in his career, and routinely plays well at this stretch – he would have been very disappointed not to qualify for the 2024 edition.

But, form seemingly renewed, J.T. is in a much better place heading into 2025, with fatherhood meshing nicely with improvements in his swing. He has gained plentiful strokes on the field from tee to green in his last six PGA TOUR starts, with title challenges at both the ZOZO Championship and Hero World Challenge.

All it will take is an improvement on the greens for Thomas to get back into the winner’s circle. Could that come at a venue he knows and loves so well?

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 5th
• Driving Distance – 26th
• Birdie Average – 32nd

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Wyndham Clark (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 74.5, Salary: $8,800)

Bombs, wedges, and putts. It’s a slightly disrespectful way to analyze Wyndham Clark’s game, given that he’s a U.S. Open champion, but even so there’s still a feeling that he’s at his best on easy layouts where birdies are at a premium.

Long off the tee, Clark’s approach play isn’t always on point, but there’s no doubt that he’s at his happiest with wedges in hand – he’ll get plenty of opportunities to wield those on the Plantation Course.

As for putting, Wyndham remains one of the best in the business, and in birdie-fest conditions where a winning score of -30 is not beyond the realms of possibility, the flat stick will be the most important weapon in the armory of our winner this week.

A champion at Pebble Beach, with T3 at the RBC Heritage and a top-ten at the Scottish Open, Wyndham Clark is clearly at home by the seaside.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 8th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 8th
• SG: Putting – 19th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Davis Thompson (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 72.8, Salary: $7,900)

In ranking 13th for SG: Tee-to-Green on the PGA TOUR in 2024, Davis Thompson revealed himself to be one of the premier players around.

That yielded a maiden win at the John Deere Classic, but hinted that this big hitter – who has outstanding touch around the greens – is one to follow in 2025 as he gets another year older and maturer.

Although putting remains his achilles heel, Thompson did show some form in that department in the second half of 2024, and his record in birdie-fest events – where the greens tend to run at a slower pace – suggests he can make hay in Hawaii.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 5th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 10th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 13th

Low-Tier Pick

Maverick McNealy (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 67.1, Salary: $7,500)

Having finally broken his PGA TOUR card at the 142nd time of asking, you wonder if that could prove the catalyst for Maverick McNealy to take his game to the next level.

He’s always been outstanding on the greens, but the Californian is finally starting to find his way with his ball-striking too; his +1.12 gained on the field on approach in his win at the RSM Classic was his best effort in the entirety of 2024.

By the nature of his career thus far, McNealy hasn’t had a crack at Kapalua to date, but he’s fared well at the Sony Open (T7 in 2023, with four rounds of 67 or better) and other correlating events, which bodes well.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 29th
• SG: Approach – 47th
• Birdie Average – 56th

Sleeper Pick for the The Sentry

Nick Dunlap (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 65.8, Salary: $7,200)

Cast your mind back the best part of a year, and you might remember Nick Dunlap out-birdieing the likes of Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Justin Thomas on his way to the American Express title.

It showcased that when this bomber is met with wide open spaces, he is able to put together some super-low scores to make up for his lack of accuracy on other, tighter layouts.

A two-time winner in 2024, Dunlap was crowned Rookie of the Year on the PGA TOUR, and as long as he doesn’t suffer from second album syndrome this year, there’s no reason why more silverware can’t follow. 

Key Stats:

• Approaches from Inside 100 Yards – 9th
• Birdie Average – 16th
• Driving Distance – 40th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the The Sentry

Kevin Yu (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 59.2, Salary: $6,300)

It’s been a bizarre season for Kevin Yu in 2024, who has verged from the sublime to the not-so-much.

A winner at the Sanderson Farms Championship, on the back of the best putting performance of his career, was met with T4 at the Myrtle Beach Classic, T9 at the correlating Cognizant Classic, and T11 at the RSM Classic last time out.

Clearly, Yu is comfortable by the coast, and while he remains very much in the ‘hit or miss’ camp, at his best he is capable of mixing it in good company.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 18th
• SG: Approach – 36th
• Driving Distance – 37th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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