Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld

The 2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Fantasy Preview

Revenge, as they say, is a dish best served cold, which is a handy metaphor for the heavy rain and strong winds that devoured Torrey Pines on Thursday and Friday.

For Ludvig Aberg, there was also a side order of redemption as, barely a month after he was struck down with a debilitating sick bug while leading the Farmers Insurance Open, he returned to Torrey Pines and made quick amends, winning the Genesis Invitational in fine style on Sunday.

It comes as little consolation to this very column, who had drafted the Swede as our top-tier pick for that Farmers edition, but respect goes to the man himself, whose stomach bug was so acute that he found himself being violently sick out on the course.

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But no such woes this time for Aberg, hovering two shots behind Patrick Rodgers and Denny McCarthy heading into the final round. He was actually the sportsbook favorite to complete the win; those other two guys, still PGA TOUR maidens after more than 200 combined appearances, had lost strokes to the field on approach and off the tee respectively.

But with Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, and Maverick McNealy charging, there was plenty of pressure on Aberg… not that you’d know it, given his cool demeanour.

After exchanging birdies and bogeys early in his final round, the 25-year-old set to work compiling the 66 that would see him clinch the trophy by one shot from McNealy, whose closing 64 was by far and away the best round of the week.

It was Aberg’s second title triumph on the PGA TOUR, following his win at the RSM Classic in the fall of 2023. You suspect that there may be many more to come for a guy whose remarkably long and straight driving affords him the opportunity to overpower many a classic layout.

Length will also be the order of the day at this week’s assignment: the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. 

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we ended up with three of our picks finishing in the Top 12.   

Our best pick of the week was Maverick McNealy, who was our top pick on our  Tuesday Sleeper Report.

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Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Field

The Mexico Open has been won by the likes of Jon Rahm and Tony Finau in recent years, but there’s a distinct lack of thoroughbreds heading south this week.

Indeed, with Maverick McNealy withdrawing from the field given his exploits in San Diego, there’s only one member of the world’s top 30 teeing it up this week: Aaron Rai.

All told, there’s only four players inside the OWGR top 50, with Akshay Bhatia, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Stephan Jaeger joining Rai in Mexico.

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Even so, there’s still plenty of quality to look forward to. The likes of Matt McCarty, Kevin Yu, Matt Wallace, and Taylor Moore are all PGA TOUR winners, while Patrick Rodgers will be looking to capitalize on his fine display at the Genesis. DP World Tour graduates Nicolai Hojgaard and Thriston Lawrence also command respect.

And defending champion Jake Knapp, who has shown signs of life lately, will be looking to cash in with a success defense of his trophy.

This Week’s Course Preview

After three editions of the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta, we’re starting to get a better handle on this unique layout.

Designed by Greg Norman, the Voldemort to the PGA TOUR’s Harry Potter, Vidanta bears all the hallmarks of classic resort-style golf by the coast. Measuring 7,456 yards for its Par 71, the track has a unique routing of four Par 5s, nine Par 4s, and five Par 3s.

And if variety is the spice of life, you’ll be running hot this week. There’s a drivable Par 4 (the 297-yard seventh) which succumbed to nearly as many eagles as bogeys last year, as well as a quartet of easy Par 5s headlined by the eighteenth hole, which measures just 548 yards and can be easily attacked in two shots by most in the field… such is the lack of length and danger.

Of the eight holes that averaged over par in 2024, one was a 226-yard Par 3 (seventeenth) and four were Par 4s in the vicinity of 500 yards; 496, 498, 505, and 520 yards respectively. If you hadn’t noticed, length really is a key factor at Vidanta.

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Not to say that the players can be reckless, though. Yes, the fairways are wide, but there’s lakes, ponds, and more than 100 bunkers waiting to catch out those who abandon accuracy altogether.

At least the greens are of a decent size, although these are Paspalum in nature… the strain of grass you tend to get by the ocean in Latin America, and which can run slow and bumpy.

Weather Forecast for Vallarta, MEX

For any of those guys that played the Genesis Invitational last week, there’s good news: there’s no rain and little wind in store for Puerto Vallarta, as per the early forecast.

Although Thursday looks set to provide a cloudy start to proceedings, it’s still warm (80 degrees) and the breeze could be down as low as 5mph.

The sun looks set to come out on Friday and stick around for the weekend, nudging the mercury up to 84 degrees. And the wind is unlikely to whip up anywhere beyond 7mph, either.

PUERTO VALLARTA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from Mexico Open at VidantaWorld

In his rookie year on the PGA TOUR, Jake Knapp took advantage of some fine early season form to land his maiden win at the Mexico Open in 2024.

T3 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T28 at the Phoenix Open (+0.76 on approach), Knapp picked up where he left off in Mexico. Rounds of 67, 64, and 63 saw him command a four-shot lead on Sami Valimaki, plus seven or more to the rest of the field, heading into Sunday.

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So, despite two maidens at the top of the leaderboard, it seemed highly unlikely that anyone would catch either Knapp or Valimaki in what became something of a match play situation… and so it proved.

Knapp didn’t play particularly well in the final round, bogeying two of the opening three holes as his nervousness showed, but Valimaki was also struggling to make inroads – despite an eagle two at the Par 4 seventh. 

In the end, Knapp simply ground out the victory, playing his final 15 holes in a bogey-free -2 to win by two shots from Valimaki.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Mexico Open at VidantaWorld

If the players feel like there’s a golden opportunity this week in Mexico, then we have to feel the same – assuming our reading of the course and the conditions prove fair and true. Hopefully our analysis is strong… and we can take full advantage of this pair of contests.

• GOLF TOUR $250k Drive the Green: $5 in, potentially $50k out… that seems like a fair deal! Okay, so you’ll have to take down a huge field to win this contest, but the reward is there, as are numerous handy-sized consolation payouts.

• GOLF TOUR $500k Pitch & Putt: For those working with a bigger bankroll, consider this $20 game which promises a huge jackpot of $100k to the winner. The top 20% or so of players will also bank a handsome prize.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for Mexico Open at VidantaWorld

Whether it’s the skillset required to thrive (long, straight hitting), or the proximity in the schedule, Torrey Pines – and thus the Farmers Insurance Open – has so far been an excellent predictor for success in the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

And so, in theory, the Genesis Invitational last week, which was switched to Torrey Pines for one year only, should be an excellent primer. But the conditions were so tough that you wonder how fatigued the players that competed there will be, and they’ll also have to navigate the psychological shift from Signature Event to what is, let’s be honest, a poor grade tournament.

So yes, Torrey Pines is a very useful correlating course. But tread carefully with those who battled the conditions last week.

There can be no doubt that easy power is a huge advantage, too. Occasionally, long hitters don’t have an advantage at long courses, i.e. if the Par 5s are so long that every player in the field is forced to lay up.

But that’s not the case at Vidanta. There’s a drivable Par 4, a series of attackable Par 5s, a 225-yard Par 3, and a string of Par 4s in the region of 500 yards. In each case, having access to long, straight hitting off the tee is a significant advantage.

Some success on idiosyncratic Paspalum greens is also welcome in our draft, while correlations may also be drawn with Quail Hollow (home of a long, watery Wells Fargo Championship), and Memorial Park. This driver-heavy host of the Houston Open has seen Tony Finau and Stephan Jaeger prevail… who have finished first and T3 respectively at Vidanta.

The Corales Puntacana Championship is an interesting guide, too. A long 7,600 yard Par 72 played on Paspalum greens, a number of shorter, accurate hitters have prevailed here, which suggests that long range approaches (ShotLink data isn’t available) are key… as they are at Vidanta.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Akshay Bhatia (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 86.6, Salary: $10,700)

In theory, there may be an edge to avoiding those that played in the Genesis this week; their four days at Torrey Pines characterized by supremely challenging conditions at the longest course on the PGA TOUR rotation. A rest would probably serve them better.

But it’s hard to overlook the claims of Akshay Bhatia, who in the years to come may well prove to be head-and-shoulders above this kind of field.

The left-hander ranked fifth for SG: Ball Striking at the Genesis, which – allied with a decent turn at the Phoenix Open – confirms that his game is heading towards the levels that saw him make it all the way to the TOUR Championship last season.

A proven performer on Paspalum and a two-time PGA TOUR winner at the age of 23, Bhatia was fourth on debut at Vidanta, where he gained nearly +2.00 on the field with his ball striking and +1.20 on the greens.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 12th
• Birdie Average – 28th
• SG: Approach – 41st

Top Tier Pick #2

Alex Smalley (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 73.5, Salary: $8,700)

By our reckoning, Alex Smalley is one of the players in this field best equipped to thrive in the conditions at Vidanta… so it’s welcome that he heads to Mexico in decent order.

He missed the cut at the Farmers, albeit gaining +1.25 strokes on the field on approach, but otherwise has racked up a formline of 21-11-16, with his effort at the Phoenix Open perhaps most intriguing.

Smalley sat T2 through 36 holes in Arizona, before a Saturday 73 ended hopes of contention. But he did rally with a closing 69, to round out a week in which he gained strokes on a stellar field off the tee, on approach, and putting.

He missed the cut at least year’s Mexico Open, but was in hopeless form heading into the event. Not so this year, with T6 at Vidanta in 2022 evidence of what Smalley is capable of here when there’s confidence in his swing.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 3rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 7th
• SG: Putting – 18th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Nicolai Hojgaard (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 70.4, Salary: $8,100)

These weak-field events should be seen as an opportunity by young stars to lock up their PGA TOUR privileges for the next two years at least with a win, and somebody that’s no stranger to hoisting trophies is Nicolai Hojgaard.

The Dane is a player that appears to be on an upward ascendance to the top, which is not an accusation that can be made about many in this field. At the age of 23, he’s already won three times on the DP World Tour – including their version of the Tour Championship, played in a Ryder Cup (halving one foursomes game against Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka), and led The Masters on Saturday.

It’s a resumé beyond most of his rivals in Mexico, and one bolstered by the fact that he’s finished solo second at the correlating Torrey Pines and Corales GC.

Nicolai watched his twin brother, Rasmus, sit T2 after 54 holes at the Phoenix Open. And whether a dose of sibling rivalry or not, it’s amazing to think that he won his maiden DP World Tour event in 2021 literally the week after Rasmus won his first too… the motivational powers speak for themselves.

Key Stats (2024):

• Fairway Proximity – 12th
• Driving Distance – 26th
• Approach – 30th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Erik Van Rooyen (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 67.4, Salary: $7,500)

With a win to his name in Mexico at the World Wide Technology Championship, plus a fine run in this event 12 months ago, Erik van Rooyen clearly enjoys his golf on Mexican soil.

He was one shot off the lead at Vidanta at the halfway stage 12 months ago, and while his title bid ran aground over the weekend, the South African still finished T8.

Van Rooyen’s formline does not look too healthy on paper, but within that he putted beautifully at Pebble Beach and, despite missing the cut, gained +0.90 with his ball striking on a quality field through the opening 36 holes at the Phoenix Open.

As Denny McCarthy and Patrick Rodgers proved in San Diego, it’s tough for maidens – no matter how talented – to get over the line. So in these weak field events, why not instead take a chance on a proven winner like E.V.R?

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 39th
• Total Birdies – 45th
• SG: Approach – 54th

Low-Tier Pick

Lanto Griffin (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 63.1, Salary: $7,300)

Despite a so-so record at Vidanta that reads 48-66-15, it’s noteworthy that Lanto Griffin has gained strokes on the field with his ball striking in all three trips.

All of which means that this Vidanta course suits his eye, and offers promise of better things to come if he can just heat up with the flatstick.

There could be encouragement on that front. Griffin gained +0.68 through the first 36 holes at the Phoenix Open, where he missed the cut, while his ball-striking was excellent at the Farmers, where he co-led at the halfway stage before settling for a T9 finish.

A former Houston Open champion, Griffin has plenty of positives going for him this week.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 51st
• Approaches from 200+ yards – 58th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 59th

Sleeper Pick for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld

Joel Dahmen (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 55.0, Salary: $6,900)

With three missed cuts from his last four starts, Joel Dahmen doesn’t appear much of a play this week.

But dig a little deeper and you stumble upon a guy who, while not the longest, is exceptional in the long iron range – as evidenced by his T9 turn at the Farmers in January, with PGA TOUR courses (quite literally) not getting any longer than Torrey Pines.

Dahmen has won on Paspalum greens at the correlating Corales Puntacana, has picked his way around the watery Quail Hollow for solo second in the Wells Fargo Championship, and has a further T3 to his name in Mexico at the World Wide Tech Championship.

Generally putting batter recently than his baseline, Dahmen has the tools and experience to go low in Mexico once more.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 200+ yards – 24th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 27th
• SG: Approach – 46th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld

Luke List (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 65.6, Salary: $6,900)

Join us now as we take another leap of faith…

That’s not to say that Luke List doesn’t have reasons to be bullish this week. This is a guy that has won at the correlating Torrey Pines, who lost in a playoff at the watery PGA National, and who showed tremendous precision to finish T6 at Quail Hollow back in 2021.

List also has a T3 to his name at the Harbour Town Links, which at least visually look similar to Vidanta, and so there’s evidence to suggest that he could take to the course (he missed the cut in his sole previous trip in 2023).

His form isn’t great, admittedly, but let’s take a closer look at the facts: he’s gained strokes on the field off the tee in his last five completed events, and has also done so in his last three outings on the greens too – a rarity for List.

Couple that with his best approach display in a while last time out in Phoenix, and who knows? Maybe List will come in hot from under the radar for his backers.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 26th
• Driving Distance – 29th
• SG: Putting – 55th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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