Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational

The 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Preview

Joe Highsmith was 5ft away from missing the cut at the Cognizant Classic… somehow, by the close on Sunday, he had landed his maiden PGA TOUR title.

Highsmith, who left himself a twitchy short-range putt just to make the weekend, then fired 64-64 – in keeping with the low scoring at PGA National – on Saturday and Sunday to post the clubhouse lead at -19 which, for the third year running, marked the lowest 72-hole score in the event in more than two decades.

Of those still left out on the course, Jake Knapp – who had earlier in the week become the 14th player in PGA TOUR to post a round of 59 or lower – had the best chance of reeling in Highsmith, but his decision to play from the water on the eleventh hole, resulting in a triple bogy, cost him a shot at the silverware.

So respect to Highsmith, who locks up his TOUR card for two years and will enjoy a range of other perks, including invites into a host of Signature Events… such as this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

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But it’s the second year in a row in which PGA National, for so long a totem of tough golf on the TOUR, was made to look a shadow of its former self. The Bermuda grass has been overseeded with Rye, making the rough so much easier to play from, and purifying chips and putts too.

So easy has PGA National become that the Cognizant Classic is now, in effect, a low-scoring putting contest – a far cry from its heyday. At some point, let’s hope PGA TOUR big cheeses get together and ask the question: is this how we want our product to look week in, week out?

Hopefully, Bay Hill – with its own quintessential tough scoring – will fight back this week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we had four Top-11 finishers including Jake Knapp who fired an impressive 59 on Day 1. 

That birdie fest was a true DFS helper last week and if you we’re smart enough to pick him, you probably helped your chances to cash in that much more.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Field

It’s a Signature Event at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which as you’re probably aware brings the big guns out to play.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, both winners at Bay Hill, will lock horns once more, while Xander Schauffele makes his long-awaited return from a rib injury. 

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There’s further OWGR top-ten heft in the form of Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, and Tommy Fleetwood, alongside another nine members of the top-20 of the world rankings.

Highsmith, as well as other strong finishers at the Cognizant Classic like Jacob Bridgeman and Max McGreevy, have also played their way into the field.

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s sad to see a PGA National track so closely associated with Jack Nicklaus go to the dogs.

So let’s hope that a Bay Hill layout synonymous with another icon of golf, Arnold Palmer, doesn’t go the same way.

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He took hold of the keys to this Orlando club back in 1974, and set to work producing what is perhaps the masterwork of his architectural and design career.

Although not an Arnold Palmer design from scratch, the master soon got to work after getting his hands on the keys in 1974.

Weighing in at around 7,350 yards for its Par 72, Bay Hill is protected from the bombers by its thick tree-lines and severe dogleg shapes off the tee, which will see plenty club down this week – for context, Brendon Todd and Andrew Putnam (two of the shortest hitters on the PGA TOUR) finished inside the top-ten here a year ago.

The layout also comes bedecked, usually, with juicy rough, and with water in play on eleven holes and 80+ strategic bunkers, there’s plenty of danger lurking. 

The greens – which are Bermuda, not this overseeded nonsense – are about average-sized for the TOUR but tend to run fast when conditions allow. 

Only seven holes here averaged under par in 2024, which included the quartet of Par 5s. Of the eleven holes which played much stiffer, amongst the toughest were lengthy Par 4s at eight, nine, and eleven – they may not have a cutesy name like the Bear Trap, but they have teeth all the same.

The quartet of Par 3s, which all in excess of 200 yards in length, all played over par, too.

Weather Forecast for Orlando, FL

There’s good news and bad news for fans of hardy Florida golf this week.

It’s likely that Orlando will be hit by rain early in the week, which may or may not soften Bay Hill, depending on how much of the wet stuff falls.

As for the tournament itself, there’s a mix of sunny spells and winds of 12mph, which will probably feel stiffer on the course. Temperatures range markedly from 66 degrees on Friday to 80 degrees on Saturday.

Sunday has the potential to be a curveball. The early forecast suggests that scattered thunderstorms and heavy rain are in the offing – hopefully, that will change as round four of the Arnold Palmer Invitational approaches.

ORLANDO WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from Arnold Palmer Invitational

Only two players made it to double digits under par in last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational: Wyndham Clark and, inevitably, Scottie Scheffler, who racked up yet another resounding win.

Scheffler and Clark were tied with Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama, Brian Harman, and Russell Henley at the top of the leaderboard at the halfway stage, with Scottie and Lowry kicking on to share the 54-hole lead.

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But when Scheffler’s at his best, there’s nobody that can match him over 18 holes, and that was the case here on Sunday in 2024: +2.28 strokes gained on the field ball-striking was matched by a whopping +3.89 putting, in what is one of the best rounds with the flatstick you’ll ever see from him.

And so, in the end, it was Scheffler who moved on to -15 to claim a second Arnold Palmer Invitational title, ahead of Clark (-10) and with the rest of the field lagging behind at single digits under par or worse.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational

With a field size of just 72, and only a small cut that trims the field to the top 50 (and ties) at the halfway stage, it’s more difficult to leverage our advantage at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

So, it’s single entry contests all the way this week…

• GOLF TOUR $35k Albatross: We’ll get up and running with this $12 entry game, which boasts a top prize of $4k. The top 89 teams will win a minimum of $50.

• GOLF TOUR $50k Dogleg: This single entry contest features a higher entry fee at $33, but the field size is trimmed to 1,766… each battling it out for the $5k jackpot, as well as a stack of sizable consolation prizes.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for Arnold Palmer Invitational

As we made our draft for the Cognizant Classic last week, we picked a roster based on the quintessential skills required to thrive at PGA National.

But with the course gradually getting easier over the years, and with heavy rain and little wind making conditions easier, we were caught out by the putting contest that ensued.

The good news is that Bay Hill, even if it does rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, should still play to its traditionally tough standards.

That’s because of the doglegging fairways, in part, which require a premium shot-shaper to make hay off the tee. The greens can be tough to hold in a breeze too, so there’s an emphasis on quality approach play AND being able to chip and scramble efficiently.

As if all that wasn’t enough, making putts on pure Bermuda greens is also vital – in short, we’re looking for classy, in-form operators. The recent rollcall of winners at Bay Hill is Scottie (x2), Bryson, Kurt Kitayama, and Tyrrell Hatton; to a man, that’s a classy band of ball strikers.

And look who’s chased them home too: Rory, Wyndham Clark, Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland, Harris English, Marc Leishman… this is a top-tier golf course that enables the best in the business to separate themselves from the pack.

For correlating courses that bring the best out of all-round superstars, you can look to Augusta and TPC Sawgrass, while plenty of players have featured prominently on the leaderboard of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Farmers Insurance Open.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Rory McIlroy (Odds: 9/1, FPPG: 106.3, Salary: $10,800)

It feels as if Rory and Scottie are light years ahead of the field at Bay Hill.

But there’s just something a little off about Scheffler’s game right now. Don’t think we’re criticising him – this is still en elite operator, but when he’s missing fairways and duffing chips, it reminds you that the world number one isn’t quite invincible to the ills of this game that recreational players love and hate in equal measure.

Perhaps there’s an opportunity for Rory then, whose game looks in fine fettle. As elite as ever in the long game department, the Irishman didn’t putt well at the Genesis last time out but, on Poa Annua greens, that is always a possibility.

Ten trips to Bay Hill have yielded a win, a second place, four other top-tens, and a T11, so it feels as if there’s an air of inevitably about McIlroy at Bay Hill. Given how well he’s striking the ball right now, those chances are amplified yet further.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 3rd
• Proximity to Hole – 14th

Top Tier Pick #2

Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 90.8, Salary: $9,300)

A winner at Augusta and Riviera Country Club with top tens at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass… this is the sort of golf that Hideki Matsuyama loves.

His record at Bay Hill is a mixed bag, but he does have that T6 finish to his name and, last year, found himself just two shots behind Scheffler and co with a round to play… falling away on Sunday to end up in T12.

Matsuyama won The Sentry back in January, and while his form has been up and down since, it’s worth noting that he played in five of the opening six tournaments of the season – unusually active for the Japanese star, who was no doubt running on fumes by the end of that stint.

Well rested now, Matsuyama’s all-round brilliance can shine once again at Bay Hill.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 2nd
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 10th
• SG: Approach – 17th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Russell Henley (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 87.8, Salary: $8,800)

It still comes as a surprise that Russell Henley hasn’t won more.

This is a guy who has top-tens on his resumé at The Masters, U.S. Open, and British Open, with a T12 turn in the PGA Championship. He’s finished T13 at the PLAYERS Championship and represented America at the Presidents Cup. It’s a career that Henley can be proud of, and at the age of 35 time is, somewhat, still on his side.

But yes, hoisting more trophies has to be the name of the game for a player of his undoubted quality, and you wonder if his next silverware will come at a classic fairways-and-greens layout like Bay Hill.

Henley finished T4 here 12 months ago, and on Sunday found himself in the upper reaches of the Cognizant Classic leaderboard. A switch to pure Bermuda greens could be the missing ingredient this week that propels him to new heights.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 9th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 21st
• SG: Approach – 26th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Jason Day (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 81.2, Salary: $7,700)

A former winner at Bay Hill, Jason Day has an excellent track record at the venue. And his recent form suggests he can add another strong entry to his ledger here this week.

The Australian made considerable gains on the field from tee-to-green at both the American Express (solo third) and Pebble Beach (T11), while there were even considerable long game gains at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he finished down the leaderboard in T32.

Perennially a strong driver with an excellent short game, it often feels like it’s irons and wedges upon which Day’s game will rise or fall. The good news for him is that’s a department that has fired of late, and so this former Bay Hill and Sawgrass champion – with a trio of top-fives to his name at Augusta – can feature once more at the classical tree-lined layout.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 30th
• Bogey Avoidance – 37th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 49th

Low-Tier Pick

Aaron Rai (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 77.6, Salary: $7,300)

Length isn’t necessarily a prerequisite at Bay Hill, as long as you have quality in the mid to long iron range… which Aaron Rai does in plentiful supply.

The Brit is a winner of the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield, where keeping your ball under tight control is key, and he’s also finished in second place at one of the DP World Tour’s flagship tracks, Wentworth, that comes complete with tight, tree-lined fairways.

Rai will head home to Florida this week – he’s now a resident of Jacksonville, and regularly practices at TPC Sawgrass, on the back of a T4 effort at the Mexico Open, where he was very much in contention at a long track that doesn’t necessarily suit his game like you suspect Bay Hill really ought to.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 34th
• Birdie Average – 38th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 43rd

Sleeper Pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Brian Harman (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 72.5 Salary: $6,800)

Even though he’s yet to breach the top-ten at Bay Hill, Brian Harman does have four top-20 turns here in which he’s posted plenty of low rounds.

It’s confirmation that you don’t need length to thrive at this Florida track, but you do need quality on approach through the bag – a skillset that Harman seems to have rediscovered of late.

He gained +1.24 on the field at the Cognizant Classic on approach, as well as +0.76 at the Genesis in his prior outing, so this reliable fairway finder is now leaning on his accuracy with irons and wedges in hand too.

A former winner at Quail Hollow that finished T2 at TPC Sawgrass last year, Harman has the skillset and the form in the bag to far exceed expectations this week.

Key Stats:

• Bogey Avoidance – 16th
• Greens in Regulation – 21st
• Proximity to Hole – 37th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Nick Taylor (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 75.6, Salary: $6,700)

There’s plenty to like about the game of Nick Taylor right now, and there’s no reason why his forward momentum has to come to an end at Bay Hill.

The Canadian had played six times at this venue without reward until last year, where he found himself inside the top-ten on the leaderboard at the halfway stage before settling for a T12 finish.

This year, Taylor heads to Florida arguably with his game in better shape than it’s ever been. Since The Sentry, he’s gained strokes on the field on approach in all five of his outings, which matched with more efficiency on the greens has led to a win at the Sony Open, T9 at the Genesis, and T12 at the American Express.

And don’t think that Taylor can’t get it done in a Signature Event strength field. He held off Scheffler on his way to winning the Phoenix Open in 2024, and showed nerves of steel to win his home Canadian Open in a playoff against Tommy Fleetwood in 2023.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 4th
• Driving Accuracy – 13th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 35th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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