Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – THE PLAYERS Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for THE PLAYERS Championship

2025 THE PLAYERS Championship Fantasy Preview

The good people at DataGolf delivered the perfect microcosm of Russell Henley’s win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Sunday – and his career in general.

They offer up stats for ‘good shots’ and ‘poor shots’ on a weekly basis, with the labels self-explanatory. At Bay Hill, Henley ranked a lowly 34th for good shots, but first in the field for poor shots.

What does that tell us? The Georgia man didn’t blow the competition away with brilliance, but he out-ground and outfought them by keeping mistakes to a minimum.

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The traditional stats also back that up, with Henley ranking second for good old GIR and tenth for SG: Putting. And he also led the way around the greens, which included some glorious chipping – not least his chip-in eagle on the sixteenth hole on Sunday, which effectively saw him swap places with Collin Morikawa at the top of the leaderboard.

Two pars on the way home, no problem: this was Henley’s fifth PGA TOUR title, and his first since 2022. While layouts like Bay Hill exist, where precision trumps power, guys like Henley will remain relevant at the top level… even if the sport of golf is heading in a brawnier, more bombastic direction.

But brains can beat brawn still, and that has often been the case at TPC Sawgrass – home of this week’s PLAYERS Championship. 

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

WHAT A WEEK AT BAY HILL!  Our selections collectively took home over $9,000,000 in prize earnings. 

Not only did we pick the outright champ, Russell Henley, but eight of our twelve total picks finished T15 or better, including three Top-5s and the winner. 

It’s the perfect time to be heating up as we head into THE PLAYERS where the prize pools are getting even bigger!

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THE PLAYERS Championship Field

Scottie Scheffler did the Arnold Palmer Invitational-PLAYERS Championship double last year, and he’s also potentially homing in on a famous three-peat at TPC Sawgrass; for context, since the tournament moved to this venue in 1982, only five other players have won the PLAYERS twice at TPC Sawgrass… nobody has clinched it three times.

Rory McIlroy, a winner here in 2019, will be looking to frank his fine start to the year, while Xander Schauffele will be hoping to move through the gears after his long-awaited return at Bay Hill last week.

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Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, and Russell Henley round out the other members of the OWGR top-ten teeing it up in Ponte Vedra, while nine other players within the top-20 are also in town.

DP World Tour members past and present, Rasmus Hojgaard and Laurie Canter, have qualified thanks to their top-50 status, which puts them in a field that is stacked with quality from top to bottom

This Week’s Course Preview

Pete Dye is rightly remembered as one of the finest golf course designers ever to wield a tape measure, and it’s TPC Sawgrass that is regarded by most as his magnum opus.

In more than 40 years of hosting the PLAYERS Championship, only twice has the winning score reached -20, and while the venue has been getting somewhat easier to play in recent times, like Bay Hill last week it still represents a fine all-round test of golf.

Why? The unique routing certainly doesn’t help. No two holes play in the same direction, which means that the players have a different wind – which typically blows pretty fierce here – every time they take to the tee box. 

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There’s thick tree lines, severe doglegs, more than 80 bunkers, and water danger on 17 holes, and while the Bermuda surfaces have been overseeded with rye – we saw the impact that had at PGA National a few weeks ago, these greens are small in size and generally run pretty fast, too.

Measuring around 7,140 yards for its Par 72, ordinarily TPC Sawgrass could be overpowered by big hitters, but the nature of the doglegs – and the relatively thin landing zones off the tee – mean that many will be clubbing down this week in a bid to find the short grass.

There are birdies to be had here – it’s not a major level test, but keeping bogey (or worse) off your card is still a sensible strategy. Only seven holes averaged under par in 2024, although the players tended to make mincemeat of the quartet of Par 5s; two of them, at two and sixteen, measure less than 550 yards.

There’s a ‘fun’, in inverted commas, closing stretch that could yield trouble come Sunday. The seventeenth… well, you probably know all about this island green Par 3, which is one of the most famous holes in golf.

But the eighteenth is no pushover either, and in fact it played as the second hardest hole on the property in 2024; a 462-yard Par 4 that yielded to just 44 birdies on the week, compared to 120 scores of bogey or worse.

Weather Forecast for Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

Some heavy rain fell on Ponte Vedra on Monday morning, but otherwise the forecast is one of sunshine, dry spells… and the potential for some hellacious winds over the weekend.

The first two days of the PLAYERS Championship should enjoy plenty of sun and temperatures of around 70 degrees. The wind at this point, according to the early forecast, should remain in single digits for mph.

As the weekend dawns, the temperatures rise to the mid-70s… but the breeze also picks up too, with the early forecast suggesting at least 18mph can be expected. Sunday’s forecast also isn’t without the possibility of rain showers, too.

PONTE VEDRA BEACH WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from THE PLAYERS Championship

In 2023, Scottie Scheffler laid waste to the field at TPC Sawgrass. Only four players made it to double digits under par, and he was top of the tree at -17; five clear of Tyrrell Hatton in second place.

He wasn’t quite so dominant last year – in fact, Scheffler was six shots adrift of leader Wyndham Clark at the halfway stage, and five shy of Xander Schauffele through 54 holes, but a typically supreme Sunday eventually carried the world number one clear of the rest.

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There were only four rounds of 64 all week long, but Scheffler chose to save his for Sunday – a sublime bogey-free outing that consisted of six birdies and an eagle at the Par 4 fourth.

Schauffele, Clark, and Brian Harman all tried to keep pace at the top of the leaderboard, but none can match Scheffler’s immense scoring power.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s THE PLAYERS Championship

If we’re all going to call it the fifth major, then it’s only right that we have a slate of contests befitting of the label.

And we do, thankfully, so here’s two biggies that we can target this week…

• GOLF TOUR $2.25M Fantasy Golf Millionaire: By the close of play on Sunday, you could be a millionaire if you land the top prize in this $25 contest. Not to worry if you don’t: there’s still stacks of other big payouts to be won.

• GOLF TOUR $500k Drive the Green: If you want the chance to win a huge sum this week, but with a smaller entry fee, then this $5 game will be right up your street. There’s a jackpot of $100k to be trousered.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for THE PLAYERS Championship

It’s surprising, in a way, that Scottie and Rory McIlroy have both won at TPC Sawgrass within the past five editions of this event, given that the course takes driver out of the players’ hands so frequently.

And that perhaps gives the best clue as to what gets the deal done here: trying to find the fairway by sheathing the big stick, before hitting elite irons and wedges into the small greens.

Of course, dancefloors will be missed given their pokey size and the fierce winds that can blow here, so reliability around the greens is also an important weapon.

Putting has also been something of a differentiator at this event over the years, although the fact that the Bermuda greens have now been balanced out with the rye overseed means that the assignment with the flatstick is not as tricky as it once was.

As for course correlations, look for those that require accuracy and precision from tee to green. Sedgefield, home of the Wyndham Championship, and TPC Southwind (St Jude) are good starting points, as are Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), Riviera (Genesis Invitational), and Waialae (Sony Open).

In the past two decades, as many as eleven players have won one either the PLAYERS or Sony Open and finished first or second at the other, which is a correlation that is hard to overlook.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 5/1, FPPG: 104.8, Salary: $12,800)

You know you’ve had a good week from tee-to-green when you’re able to finish T1 despite being the third worst putter in the field of those that made the cut.

And that’s the state of affairs for Scottie Scheffler as looks for a three-peat at the PLAYERS. He was in immaculate ball-striking form at Bay Hill last week, leading the field off the tee and ranking second and fifth respectively for GIR and SG: Around-the-Green.

Scheffler was somewhat critical of the greens at Bay Hill, suggesting they had a glassy feel to them. He wasn’t the only one, with Michael Kim labelling them ‘dead’, so perhaps there was something in his flatstick woes.

It was the first time that Scottie has lost strokes to the field putting since August. But he’s posted positive numbers on the greens in each of his last three trips to TPC Sawgrass, where the overseeding should certainly please him. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 3rd
• SG: Approach – 7th

Top Tier Pick #2

Shane Lowry (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 73.8, Salary: $9,100)

Although he wasn’t able to get the job done, the quality of Shane Lowry’s play through the opening 36 holes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational – and on Sunday – cannot be questioned.

The Irishman has long enjoyed the Florida Swing, this being his adopted home, and you wonder if a windy TPC Sawgrass might be the most likely destination for him to finally land another PGA TOUR title on American soil… it’s now been nearly a decade since his last strokeplay win.

Lowry will certainly get a breeze over the weekend, that won’t inconvenience a former British Open champion on the Links, and his formline at TPC Sawgrass since 2021 of 19-35-13-8 is reliably consistent at a track that has a habit of befuddling even the finest players on the planet.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 11th
• Scoring Average – 12th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 28th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Corey Conners (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 79.1, Salary: $7,900)

Given his fine record at Bay Hill, it was perhaps no surprise that Corey Conners returned to form there with a solo third finish.

The Canadian had shown glimpses at the Genesis Invitational before, although it was his short game, surprisingly, that did much of the heavy lifting there.

Conners has long been a supremely accurate ball striker that has struggled when chipping and putting, so his recent uptick in both departments of his short game is eye catching – particularly given the nature of the test at TPC Sawgrass.

If Conners is a creature of habit, you would assume that he will play well this week too. His record at the venue – 13-MC-26-7 is perfectly good in the context of how difficult it is to be consistently good, year on year, at TPC Sawgrass.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 14th 
• Driving Accuracy – 39th
• Greens in Regulation – 45th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 80.3, Salary: $7,700)

Whether the thought of qualifying for the Ryder Cup team automatically is occupying the mind of Keegan Bradley, only he knows. But he’s doing an excellent job of auditioning as a possible player-captain.

His T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was his fourth top-20 on the PGA TOUR in six starts, with that particular effort at Bay Hill arguably Bradley’s best of the season so far. He ranked fourth for Driving Accuracy and first for SG: Approach, which showcases the excellent control he had of his ball… helpful at a layout as riddled with danger as TPC Sawgrass.

Although his record at Sawgrass is a mixed bag, whose isn’t!? Besides which, Bradley has finished T5 and T7 here within his last six trips. 

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 6th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 17th 
• Putts Per Round – 53rd

Low-Tier Pick

Aaron Rai (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 77.4, Salary: $7,100)

Having made a living picking and plotting his way around golf courses with controlled accuracy, Aaron Rai will be hoping that his natural skillset will come to fruition once more at TPC Sawgrass.

His irons and wedges were once again in fine fettle at Bay Hill, confirming his status as one of the most reliable fairways-and-greens merchants on the PGA TOUR, and backing up the mammoth +2.16 gain on the field Rai made on approach at the Mexico Open, where he finished T4.

Keeping errors to a minimum is key at TPC Sawgrass, and – in theory, at least – that’s a real strength of Rai’s game. In two trips to the venue he’s finished T19 and T35; nothing mind blowing, but confirmation that he can get around this tricky course with consistency.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 6th
• SG: Approach – 34th
• Birdie Average – 38th

Sleeper Pick for THE PLAYERS Championship

Doug Ghim (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 75.2, Salary: $5,600)

We drafted Doug Ghim in this exact same spot last year, and he did us proud with a T16 finish.

The same reasons then apply now: Ghim is a fantastic ball-striker, and while he lacks the length to be a multiple time PGA TOUR winner, at tracks like TPC Sawgrass his skillset really comes into its own.

The other reason Ghim doesn’t have a stacked trophy cabinet is that he is poor with putter in hand. But, curiously, he gained strokes on the field putting here 12 months ago – one of just seven occasions he managed to do so in the entirety of 2024, and Ghim also putted better than the field average here in 2022 as well.

Whatever the reason, Ghim loves it in Ponte Vedra.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 6th
• Driving Accuracy – 39th
• Greens in Regulation – 51st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for THE PLAYERS Championship

Michael Kim (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 73.4, Salary: $5,900)

Wherever he goes, and no matter what the assignment, Michael Kim is adapting his game to produce some stellar golf right now.

A regular fixture on the top page of the leaderboard at Bay Hill, Kim’s formline prior to that has seen him finish 6-13-13-2. From the sturdy tee-to-green test of TPC Scottsdale, to the bomb-and-putt birdie fests at Torrey Pines and PGA National, he’s made it work for him.

Outstanding on approach and around the greens lately, Kim doesn’t have a stellar record at TPC Sawgrass – like many in the field, but can succeed at less-than-driver courses, such as Sedgefield, and what’s more this week he heads to Ponte Vedra playing the best golf of his career.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 4th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 5th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 6th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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