Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Texas Children’s Houston Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Texas Children’s Houston Open

2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open Fantasy Preview

Whoever came up with the saying ‘form is temporary, class is permanent’ wasn’t kidding, were they?

Viktor Hovland found the missing ingredient, whatever it was, that enabled him to overturn a formline reading MC-MC-MC-22-MC to win the Valspar Championship.

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Even at a Copperhead Course where the average GIR was well below 70% – remember, Hovland is not the best chipper in the world, the Norwegian managed to make it work for him.

He’s been open about perhaps tinkering with his game a little too much in 2024, which set him back, and so a back-to-basics approach – hitting fairways, and letting his elite iron and wedge play do the rest – was just what the doctor ordered.

In the end, it was the Snake Pit at the Copperhead Course on Sunday that would prove the difference maker. Justin Thomas, who at one point looked the most likely victor, bogeyed two of the three holes making up the tricky trio, whereas Hovland birdied 16 and 17… right there, the deed was done.

This was the seventh PGA TOUR title of Hovland’s career, and you suspect in its own way it was also one of the most satisfying. 

That brings the curtain down on the Florida Swing. We have a two-week stop off in Texas – starting with the Houston Open this week, before all roads lead to Augusta National for The Masters in April.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week our shining star was Jacob Bridgeman who believe it or not had a chance to tie Hovland for the lead and force a playoff standing over his second shot on 18.   

If he rolled his birdie putt in, he would have finished T2 alongside JT, but Bridgeman made par to finish 3rd on the week. 

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The Texas Children’s Houston Open Field

What a gloriously lopsided field will head to the Memorial Park Golf Course this week.

There’s the considerable presence of the world number one and two, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, but then just two other members of the world’s top 20 in Wyndham Clark and Maverick McNealy.

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Sahith Theegala, Sungjae Im, and Aaron Rai are amongst the other notables in the field, alongside tournament winners this year in Thomas Detry and Nick Taylor. Stephen Jaeger, who won the Houston Open in 2024, returns to defend his honor.

Remember, this is the final chance for the players to book their place at The Masters through their world ranking alone. The top 50 make it by rights, so the likes of Michael Kim, Ben Griffin, Min Woo Lee, and Si Woo Kim will be looking for a big week in Houston.

This Week’s Course Preview

The Houston Open moved to Memorial Park in 2021, and since then we’ve had a clear route to success here: hitting big bombs off the tee.

The track measures a meaty 7,400 yards for its Par 70, with five Par 3s and three Par 5s making up the unusual routing. The hardest holes are two Par 4s measuring in excess of 520 yards, while a trio of other Par 4s are all 490+ yards. Add into the mix a 236-yard Par 3, and it’s obvious that length is a key factor this week. 

To make matters all the more interesting, the Houston Open moved from its normal November slot to a new March date as of 2024, so the Memorial Golf Course will naturally play longer (due to softer post-winter ground) now as well.

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An overhaul of the track by Tom Doak (assisted by Brooks Koepka) saw dozens of bunkers removed from the real estate, which have instead been replaced by very sharp run-offs and waste areas. That has made Memorial Park tougher, with the players now longer able to benefit from dumping drives and approaches into forgiving sand.

Some trees have also been removed, which allows the wind to be more of a factor, so you can see why the winning score here has ranged from -10 to -16 in recent times.

The good news for the players is that you could land a jumbo jet on the fairways, such is their generous width, while the Bermuda greens are also well proportioned; albeit running slick when the weather allows.

Seven of the eighteen holes averaged under par in 2024, with the three Par 5s being the easiest on the property by some margin. Some of the Par 4s are the hardest, including the quartet that measure in excess of 490 yards – the very first hole, a 522-yard behemoth, is one tough old way to start proceedings.

Weather Forecast for Houston, TX

The prospect of a soft Memorial Park track is made all the more likely by the potential for rain throughout the tournament.

According to the early forecast, Friday and Saturday are most likely to see some of the wet stuff, with the possibility of a thunderstorm or two on Saturday.

Showers have been suggested for Thursday too, so roll on Sunday – the players should, as per the predictions, be able to bask in sunshine, temperatures of around 80 degrees, and a lighter wind than is expected earlier in the week.

HOUSTON WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Texas Children’s Houston Open

There was a certain ominous feeling to proceedings when Scottie Scheffler muscled his way into the 54-hole lead here 12 months ago.

That was a five-way tie alongside Stephan Jaeger, Alejandro Tosti, David Skinns, and Thomas Detry, but it goes without saying that Scheffler is the most accomplished of that quintet by some margin.

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But the world number one was strangely quiet on championship Sunday. He birdied the second and third holes, but then played his five in +1. A birdie at nine stopped the rot, but Scheffler wouldn’t break par again until the sixteenth. With a bogey preceding that at fifteen, his race was all but run.

It would all come down to the final hole, with Jaeger and Tosti poised. The German played the hole beautifully, leaving himself a 20-foot birdie putt that he would miss by just two inches. 

But that was okay, because Tosti had shovelled his drive into the rough, missed the green with his second shot, left an 18ft par putt with his third, before rolling that just past the hole to hand Jaeger his maiden PGA TOUR victory.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open

Although there’s the threat of hubris and overconfidence, the Houston Open at Memorial Park just feels like one of those weeks where we have a really good read on which players will fare well.

Of course, it doesn’t always pan out that way, but with a clear profile of player that performs strongly at this track, we can enter contests this week feeling bullish about our chances.

• GOLF TOUR $700k Pitch & Putt: We can open up the purse strings a bit, therefore, and enter this Pitch & Putt contest, in which the total prize fund has been bolstered by an additional $100k in 2025. As such, the winner of this $20 game will walk away a cool $200k richer.

• GOLF TOUR $300k Drive the Green: An alternative strategy is to enter a series of tweaked lineups in this $5 entry contest. It still offers up a sizable top prize – $50k – even with that lower price point. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for Texas Children’s Houston Open

It’s bombs away in Houston, with so little in the way of danger off the tee to put off the biggest hitters from freeing their arms. 

The fairways are nice and wide, while the rough is forgiving too, so it’s no surprise that bombers like Tosti, Tyson Alexander, and Kevin Tway have had some of their best days on the PGA TOUR at Memorial Park.

And it’s not just length off the tee that’s an advantage either, with so many approaches of 180 yards or longer to be hit – quality in that yardage bucket, be it in setting up birdie looks or avoiding calamity, is crucial. 

And although the greens are on the large size, they run so sharp (if not sodden by the rain) that approaching these with loft from on high – another advantage of the longer hitters – is the best play.

You don’t have to look too hard for correlating courses, with the physically demanding length of the Farmers Insurance Open – where players need to be long and accurate – throwing up plenty of similar faces on the leaderboard. 

The Mexico Open, St Jude Championship, and CJ CUP Byron Nelson can also be considered loose correlations for the very same reasons.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Texas Children’s Houston Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Texas Children’s Houston Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Tony Finau (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 65.2, Salary: $9,200)

It’s fascinating looking at the top of the market this week.

We’ve got $12,700 Scottie Scheffler, whose putter has started to misbehave and who has only gained more than a stroke on the field on approach in one of his last four starts. Can he win this week? Yes. Will he? Maybe… but at $12,700, we’ll let others take the salary hit.

And then there’s $11,700 Rory McIlroy, who has never played at Memorial Park and who has only served up big approach play numbers in two of his last four starts. Can he win this week? Absolutely: he’s the best player in the world right now. Will he? Again, there’s enough doubt to swerve him.

Which brings us to Aaron Rai (excellent record at Memorial Park, but not quite firing right now), J.J. Spaun (never cracked the top 30 here), and Min Woo Lee, who’s nobody’s idea of a top tier play.

There’s an opportunity for a strong mid-level roster build this week, and we’ll kick off with Tony Finau, who won here in 2023 and who finished runner-up here last year.

Finau hasn’t been at his best for a while, due largely to injuries and personal issues, but he continues to play decent enough golf; barely a month ago, he finished T5 in a Signature Event at the correlating Torrey Pines, after all.

He’s one of those guys that has a habit of playing well at the same places year after year, and if he continues his somewhat improved putting of 2025, there’s no doubt that Finau can contend at Memorial Park once again.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 18th
• Par 3 Scoring Average – 20th
• Birdie Average – 34th

Top Tier Pick #2

Thomas Detry (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 72.3, Salary: $8,600)

Thomas Detry returns to a venue that he co-led at after 54 holes last year a newly-minted PGA TOUR winner.

The Belgian’s triumph at the Phoenix Open was a huge deal for him; shaking off any doubts about his ability to close out a lead – that, you might remember, was his first senior level title on any tour.

Players like Detry are often at their best when having the freedom to hit big off the tee – the club down, tight tests of the Florida Swing are not really his cup of tea. Even so, the world number 26 will have been pleased with his turn at the Valspar Championship, where he gained strokes on the field on approach (including +2.16 on Sunday) and putting.

Able to free his arms at Memorial Park, Detry will be in his element this week… could he win another PGA TOUR title in the first quarter of 2025?

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 24th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 34th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 36th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Maverick McNealy (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 70.6, Salary: $8,300)

As with Thomas Detry, it’s unlikely that Maverick McNealy will ever look upon the Florida Swing all that greatly.

Less than driver golf courses are not that helpful to longer sorts, so missed cuts at the PLAYERS and Arnold Palmer Invitational come with a caveat and an acceptance that this doesn’t mean a player has lost their form overnight.

Solo second at the correlating Torrey Pines for the Genesis Invitational in February, McNealy got better from one round to the next and could have gotten his hands on the trophy amidst an outstanding Sunday 64.

Additional form at the correlating Mexico Open and St. Jude, as well as some decent work at Memorial Park in the past, only add extra fuel to the fire.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 28th 
• SG: Approach – 38th
• Driving Distance – 50th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Alex Smalley (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 71.9, Salary: $8,200)

The mid-tier odyssey continues with Alex Smalley, who shapes up nicely at Memorial Park.

Despite missing the cut here last year, in two prior trips Smalley has a formline of 15-4 with a number of low rounds fired. And he heads to Houston once more with his game in decent shape.

He missed the cut, uncharacteristically, at the Valspar Championship, but a weekend off to recharge the batteries is no big thing having played a busy schedule that included T14 (PLAYERS) and T18 (Cognizant Classic) on the Florida Swing.

T0 at the correlating Mexico Open, Smalley has the length and the class to make his suitability for Memorial Park work in his favor once more.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 3rd
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 14th 
• SG: Putting – 41st

Low-Tier Pick

Keith Mitchell (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 65.6, Salary: $8,000)

We round out our journey through the $8,000s with Keith Mitchell, a player whose temperament continues to bedevil his outstanding talent.

Mitchell really seems to struggle with adversity, going on bogey runs and slipping down leaderboards if he plays a bad hole here and there.

So maybe easier courses like Memorial Park, where he can hit driver-iron-putter are more in his skillset… particularly as danger is low here off the tee and on approach.

Two missed cuts and a T9 in four trips to this venue are classic Mitchell inconsistency, but he’s playing sneaky good golf right now; making big gains with his ball-striking in recent weeks, and gaining strokes on the field putting at the Valspar. 

When the pieces of the puzzle fit together at the same time, Mitchell will be a danger.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 4th
• Greens in Regulation – 10th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 23rd

Sleeper Pick for the Texas Children’s Houston Open

Patrick Rodgers (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 67.2, Salary: $7,600)

You may recall the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines in February, where Patrick Rodgers and Denny McCarthy led the way until both came unstuck on Sunday.

That would have hurt them both, but for Rodgers it was confirmation that a) he can mix it with the best, and b) that long, demanding courses like Torrey Pines (and Memorial Park) are where he’s likely to do his best work.

Rodgers followed that close call at the Genesis with a solid T25 at the Mexico Open plus two finishes of T22 or better on the Florida Swing, so he’s consistently playing good golf at the moment.

Although his record at Memorial Park is patchy, at least this year Rodgers heads there with plenty of form and confidence in the locker.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 22nd
• Driving Distance – 53rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 89th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Texas Children’s Houston Open

Joel Dahmen (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 57.5, Salary: $7,100)

Although he’s not the longest hitter in the world, Joel Dahmen still gains plenty of strokes off the tee and makes his skillset work for him.

He seems to really thrive at long, demanding courses, delivering plenty of strong performances at Torrey Pines and Vidanta, home of the Mexico Open – he’s finished T6 and T9 here already in 2025, thanks largely to his quality in the 180+ yard range on approach.

Two top-tens in his last three trips to Memorial Park illustrates that point, so his fine record here and at correlating venues means that Dahmen is a sleeper pick with purpose this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 21st
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 32nd
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 35th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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