Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 US Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 US Open

2025 US Open Fantasy Preview

He described it as the ‘best shot I’ve ever played’.

And who can blame Ryan Fox for his bullishness, given that he’d just landed his second PGA TOUR title just a month after his first?

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The New Zealander and Sam Burns couldn’t be separated through three playoff holes at the Canadian Open on Sunday, with the pair tied at the top of the leaderboard on -18.

The playoff was a real mixed bag for Burns, who coupled some excellent stroke-making with some horror putting and wedge play.

But take nothing away from Fox, who looked serene throughout before hitting his 3-wood some 260 yards to 7ft of the flag on the fourth replayed hole.

It was his second PGA TOUR win in four starts, with both coming in playoffs. Took about nerves of steel…

Fox and the rest of the U.S. Open field will need those in abundance this week as the grand old tournament heads back to Oakmont Country Club; a golf course described by more than one esteemed judge as the toughest in world golf.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Big winner last week and you have to love a fresh win leading into a Major!  

Not only did we have Fox as our mid-tier roster pick, but Nick Taylor proved to be worth his salaried price. 

Now on to Oakmont, things are about to get really interesting this week…

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The 2025 US Open Field

A U.S. Open week brings with it one of the best fields in all of golf.

We’ve got the top 60 of the OWGR, we’ve got major champions from outside that group, we’ve got champion seniors and amateurs, we’ve got points leaders from the FedEx Cup, Race to Dubai, and LIV Golf, and we’ve got regional, sectional qualifiers.

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If you can name them, they’re probably playing in the U.S. Open this week. All bar Sahith Theegala, that is, who has been forced to withdraw through injury.

This Week’s Course Preview

Described variously as ‘the beast’ and ‘the hardest golf course in the world’, Oakmont Country Club certainly comes with a daunting reputation… as all good U.S. Open courses should.

It was last seen as a U.S. Open host in 2016, when just four players finished under par for the week… Shane Lowry’s torturous final round of +6 costing him a maiden major win.

It will be fascinating to see how the players fare nearly a decade later, what with all of the advances in equipment, clubhead speeds and length, but even more than 120 years after it was designed, Oakmont will surely still put up a good fight.

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The numbers certainly hint as such. The USGA has spoken of five inch rough and greens reaching 15 on the stimpmeter, which will certainly up the ante – combined the course’s original design features like severely undulating Poa Annua greens, small landing zones, and prolific, deep bunkering.

A word should go to Henry Fownes, who designed Oakmont in 1903. He personally got involved in the construction work too, helping a team turn old farmland into the Links-style layout we know today. Fownes never designed another golf course, but his legacy in American golf history is assured anyway.

Here’s a hole-by-hole deep dive of Oakmont Country Club:

Hole 1 (Par 4, 488 yards) – A small landing zone requires precision off the tee, before a mid-range approach shot into a green that slopes severely away from the fairway.

Hole 2 (Par 4, 346 yards) – In theory, the second hole is a drivable Par 4. But with so much danger, with water left and deep bunkers right, taking iron off the tee is likely. The green is funky, to say the least.

Hole 3 (Par 4, 462 yards) – Lengthened by about 50 yards since 2016, new bunkers have been added along the right side of the fairway. The elevated green also slopes away from the fairway, but the key feature is the famous Church Pews bunker, a huge sandpit that measures 100×40 yards and stretches onto the fourth hole, too.

Hole 4 (Par 5, 611 yards) – A long old Par 5, players need to avoid the Church Pews bunker to give themselves a comfier ride on approach. This hole features some of the deepest bunkers on the property, as well as thick rough – reaching the green in two will be nigh on impossible.

Hole 5 (Par 4, 408 yards) – Lengthened by 30 yards since 2016, the fifth might be a short Par 4 but it sill averaged over par the last time the U.S. Open was in town. With such a severely sloping green, most will take iron off the tee for a better angle of attack.

Hole 6 (Par 3, 200 yards) – With a green that slopes significantly from right to left, pin position will dictate what’s possible on the sixth. Miss the green altogether and you’ll likely be in trouble, with huge bunkers and tough up-and-downs awaiting.

Hole 7 (Par 4, 485 yards) – The fifth hardest hole in 2016, it looks as if the seventh is one of the few to be relatively untouched from the last U.S. Open here. Finding the left portion of the green is the smart play, given that it slopes markedly to the right, but the worst of the danger is also to be found left of the putting surface.

Hole 8 (Par 3, 289 yards) – Do not rub your eyes; you read that yardage correctly. This is, officially, the longest Par 3 in major history… a hole on which finding the green off the tee is an achievement. 

Hole 9 (Par 4, 472 yards) – The front nine closes with a hole that averaged +0.43 over par in 2016… making it the second toughest at the layout. An uphill Par 4 with a blind tee shot, there’s pot bunkers to the right of the fairway that are so deep that chipping out sideways is the only play. The danger doesn’t end there given how undulating the green is into the bargain.

Hole 10 (Par 4, 461 yards) – Another hole at which pin position informs the difficulty, as the green slopes from front to back. But a downhill tee shot into a thin slither of fairway, with a plethora of bunkers to the right, will provide a stern test either way.

Hole 11 (Par 4, 400 yards) – A fair scoring hole in 2016, nearly 30 yards has since been added to the eleventh. Most will go iron-iron to get to a green that slopes from back to front, with birdie a possibility depending on the pin position.

Hole 12 (Par 5, 632 yards) – This hole caused quite a stir in 2016 when it played to a mammoth 689 yards. That fury has been listened to, with 50 or so yards removed, but even so this Par 5 will play so long that the advantage of the bombers will recede – pretty much everyone will take a three-shot strategy.

Hole 13 (Par 3, 182 yards) – The thirteenth is all in front of the players, which is perhaps why it was one of just four holes to average under par in 2016. The sloping green has a unique shape that slims in the middle portion, but a good approach shot – allied to a forgiving pin position – creates birdie opportunities. 

Hole 14 (Par 4, 379 yards) – Also playing under par in 2016, the fourteenth is, theoretically, a drivable Par 4. But most will lay up and leave a wedge into another spicy green… this is a rare birdie opportunity at Oakmont.

Hole 15 (Par 4, 507 yards) – The sheer length of the fifteenth makes it a challenge, but that is exacerbated by this being one of the toughest driving holes on the real estate. Missing the fairway will leave 200+ yards into the green from thick rough… most will have to lay up, which makes bogey or worse a distinct possibility.

Hole 16 (Par 3, 236 yards) – This is a knee-trembling approach shot into a green with severe banks and runoffs, while the left-to-right slope leaves little margin for error, depending on pin placement.

Hole 17 (Par 4, 312 yards) – Given the yardage, you perhaps won’t be surprised to learn that this was the easiest hole at the 2016 U.S. Open. There are some deep bunkers and the green is small in size, but even those laying up were rewarded with a catalogue of birdies back in ’16.

Hole 18 (Par 4, 472 yards) – As if closing out a major victory wasn’t nerve-racking enough, the leader on Sunday will have to tame this beast of a Par 4. A narrow chute of fairway leads the players from the tee box all the way to the green, which is huge in size but packed with little undulations, shelves, and contours that make three putting a distinct possibility.

Weather Forecast for Oakmont, PA

The forecast looks as though it could be changeable for U.S. Open week in Oakmont.

Rains and storms have been predicted for Monday and perhaps into Tuesday, before glorious sunshine takes over. But then, according to the early forecast at least, those thundery storms could return in time for the weekend.

Temperatures should be steady at around 78 degrees, while the wind – at this early stage – does not look likely to be much of a factor.

But just watch out for the weekend forecast, which is promising rain and storms at this early juncture.

OAKMONT WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the US Open

Bryson DeChambeau is our defending champion this week, after he survived a chaotic four days at Pinehurst No. 2 a year ago.

The big hitter posted three rounds in the sixties – the only man in the field to do so – to open up a three-shot lead over Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, and Matthieu Pavon with 18 holes to play.

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And then along came Rory. Through 13 holes on Sunday, DataGolf gave the Irishman a 76% win probability, such was the assured nature of his play as Bryson began to come unglued.

But McIlroy would face bad luck – including one shot that landed softly in the middle of the green and then somehow rolled away to leave a near-impossible up and down – and make some horrendous putts from short range to open the door to Bryson once more.

And he would not be denied. Deft chipping and clutch putting enabled the LIV superstar to clinch what was his second U.S. Open title.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s the 2025 US Open

It goes without saying that the U.S. Open is a tough event to build lineups for; particularly as this Oakmont Country Club layout is likely to throw up all manner of variance and bizarre happenings.

But there’s opportunities too, not least because some high-quality operators are available at salaries in the sub $7,000 range. So let’s enter some low risk, high reward contests this week.

• GOLF $600k Drive the Green: The equivalent of a fantasy golf lottery ticket, for $5 players have access to a $100k top prize and a stack of other handsome payouts. We’ll need all six of our picks to make the cut to have any chance of taking down the jackpot, but that’s the beauty of major DFS golf.

• PGA $3M Fantasy Golf Millionaire: Well, it would be rude not to, right? Yes, the $25 entry will be a bit stiff for some, but if you have the bankroll for it then why not try to become fantasy golf’s latest millionaire? Thousands of players will win a cash prize to some tune, too.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2025 US Open

In the absence of strokes gained data from the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont, we’re in educated guesswork territory. Thankfully, the leaderboard through up plenty of handy angles for us to work with.

This was a top-ten bedazzled with slow and steady tee-to-green grinders; from Jim Furyk and Kevin Na to Jason Dufner and Zach Johnson.

Johnson, a former British Open winner, also offers credence to the Links golf, erm, link. Shane Lowry, who should have won at Oakmont in 2016, is a former British Open champion, while Branden Grace – T5 at Oakmont – once shot the record low score in the British Open.

Jason Day, who finished T8 at Oakmont in ’16, also has a pair of top-ten finishes to his name in the British Open Championship, so the visual look of Oakmont – which has that Links look, with literally zero trees on the property – is perhaps more than just a coincidence. 

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2025 US Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2025 US Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 3/1, FPPG: 106.2, Salary: $14,400)

Drafting Scottie in a standard PGA TOUR week comes fraught with risk; not him personally so much, but balancing out a ‘stars and scrubs’ draft with low-tier budget players that may hot have consistency or upside to offer.

But in a major week, well, there’s a whole stack of guys and sub $7,000 prices that offer value and balance to a Scheffler-led lineup build.

We don’t really need to write a great deal about the world number one here. He’s won three of his last four starts, and is equipped with the tee-to-green brilliance that perhaps make him best placed to cope with the unique peculiarities of Oakmont.

Scheffler ranks fourth in the field for U.S. Open stroke average (minimum of five appearances), but he missed cuts in the event back in 2016 and 2019. He’s a different animal entirely now, of course. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
• Bogey Avoidance – 1st
• SG: Putting – 25th

Top Tier Pick #2

Collin Morikawa (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 81.5, Salary: $9,800)

The second-best scoring average in this field for players that have appeared in five or more U.S. Opens is Collin Morikawa, and that comes as no great surprise.

When playing anywhere close to his best, Morikawa is an elite tee-to-green operator – fairways and greens are his stock in trade, with laser-like accuracy.

It’s a skillset that perhaps enables him to stay out of trouble more than most, which of course is the modus operandi at any U.S. Open… but particularly so at Oakmont.

Morikawa should love this Links-adjacent layout, given his status as a former British Open champion, and some of his results in recent months – solo second at the Arnold Palmer, T10 at the PLAYERS, T14 at The Masters – hint at the possibility of another major run soon.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 5th
• Proximity to Hole – 8th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 19th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Russell Henley (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 75.3, Salary: $7,400)

The 2016 leaderboard at Oakmont suggested that slow-and-steady types, who keep their ball on a tight leash, can thrive in these conditions.

You’d file Russell Henley away under that heading, and his unspectacular fairways-and-greens can enjoy full reward at a venue where more celebrated players might just find themselves in trouble.

A run of form in the U.S. Open that reads 7-14-MC-13 is eye catching given the tough nature of this tournament, while Henley’s lead-in form – two top-tens in Signature Events within his last four starts – suggests he’s well placed to strike in Pennsylvania. 

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 14th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 17th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 24th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Corey Conners (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 76.2, Salary: $7,300)

Although Corey Conners would have loved to have won his home Canadian Open last week, the truth is that the ease of TPC Toronto did not lend itself to his strengths. Oakmont, you fancy, will be much more his cup of tea.

He snapped a streak of five missed cuts at the U.S. Open by finishing T9 at Pinehurst last year, and if you look at how Conners goes about his business these days, he’s a far more polished performer than ever before.

His exceptional ball-striking has been joined by more authority in his short game, and while the Canadian hasn’t won for a while, he’s been ultra consistent – he’s only finished outside the top-30 in one of his last eleven starts… a run that includes two majors, a PLAYERS, and a host of Signature Events.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 8th
• Greens in Regulation – 13th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 26th

Low-Tier Pick

Denny McCarthy (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 70.6, Salary: $6,600)

If Denny McCarthy can match anything like his last three outings at the U.S. Open – 32-20-7 – he will have more than delivered as a low-tier pick.

He’s another whose best work seems to come in tougher conditions, as evidenced this season by T5 at a wet and windy Torrey Pines, T8 at the PGA Championship, T14 at the PLAYERS, and even a top-30 turn at The Masters.

A reliable fairways-and-greens merchant, with an elite short game, McCarthy can hopefully outperform expectations this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 7th
• Scrambling – 25th
• Driving Accuracy – 66th

Sleeper Pick for the 2025 US Open

Andrew Novak (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 63.0, Salary: $6,300)

The players will need to pick and plot their way around Oakmont, and then still hope that they get lucky with their lies in the rough and sand.

Reliability from tee-to-green will be the pillar on which success is built, and in Andrew Novak we can draft a guy that is capable of keeping his ball under control in tight and tough conditions.

A trio of finishes of solo second or T3 this term highlight how his game has advanced in 2025, and Novak’s next mission will be to establish himself as a regular fixture in majors – his form at tracks like Torrey Pines and Colonial suggest that he’s capable of doing exactly that.

Key Stats:

• Putts Per Round – 7th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 43rd
• Scrambling – 45th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2025 US Open

Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 350/1, FPPG: 60.6, Salary: $5,700)

Of course it’s a gamble drafting a player at $5,700, but Emiliano Grillo will only need to make the cut this week to make himself an invaluable member of the roster.

And the reason that the Argentine has been entrusted for the role is his outstanding ball-striking form of late. Peppering fairways with regularity, Grillo has gained +2.24, +1.59, and +2.22 on approach against the field, on average per round, in his last three outings.

His short game has prevented him from improving on a best of T16 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, but confidence must be coursing through his veins courtesy of his long game – if Grillo can tidy up on and around the greens, he could be a fantastic asset this week.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 24th
• Proximity to Hole – 31st
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 71st

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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