Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2015 AT&T Byron Nelson

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2015 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Four Seasons

Event Preview

The AT&T Byron Nelson Golf Classic is up next on the PGA schedule as players converge on Irving, TX for the 62nd installment of this even.  It was first played in 1944 and not surprisingly was won by the man who has his name in the tournament title, when he shot eight-under-par and took home a whopping $2,000.  Since then, only four players (Bruce Lietzke, Jack Nicklaus, Sam Snead, Tom Watson) have taken home the trophy more than once with Watson doing so four times (1975, 1978, 1979, 1980).

In 2007, the course took on a brand new look as a complete overhaul put more water in play and created more undulated greens.  In turn, the winner’s score has dipped slightly, and besides the record-setting aggregate score of 261 (that Rory Sabbatini put up in 2009), no other victor has done better than 14-under-par since the changes.

The best besides Sabbatini in that time came from first-time PGA TOUR winner Brendon Todd last season when he shot a combined 12-under on the par-three’s and fours and was 2.64 strokes better than the field with his putting in a 14-under-par performance.  He outlasted Canadian Mike Weir by two strokes as only two other golfers (Charles Howell III, Marc Leishman) managed double-digits under par.

The field will this week be led by hometown hero and OWGR No. 2 golfer, Jordan Spieth, and will feature two others (No. 8 Jason Day, No. 10 Dustin Johnson) from the top-10.  Also vying for to take the top spot this week will be another five players (Jimmy Walker, Matt Kuchar, Brooks Koepka, Ian Poulter, Zach Johnson) from the top-25 in the OWGR.  Despite plenty of the top golfers from outside of the United States typically not playing in this event, there have been many foreign-born golfers who have claimed a victory here, including with four of the past seven wins and the most recent being Sang-Moon Bae in 2013.

Another average field should provide for a great finish once again this week, and last week at Colonial, eight players were within two shots of the lead at the finish.  That list featured names such as Jason Bohn (OWGR No. 136), Pat Perez (No. 119), and Adam Hadwin (No. 189) who were all outside of the top-100 in the world rankings going in, thus showing that any given week can feature some big-time underdogs making a name for themselves.

So now let’s look at some of those fantasy golf sleepers who could perform well at the par-70, 7,166-yard TPC Four Seasons Resort and Golf Course this week.

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

• Charl Schwartzel – 75/1: Schwartzel has made 9-of-11 cuts this year as his consistency has been pretty much everything. H e has a mere one top-10 on the year and is coming off his second missed cut, but has been an absolute beast here at TPC Four Seasons over the past two years with an 11th place finish in 2014 and a close third place in 2013.  In that installment of the event he shot 10-under-par after putting up a huge 63 on the opening day.  Despite his poor start, the South African has been able to rank in the top-50 in driving distance (294.8 yards per, 40^th on tour) and going for the green (60.61%, 30^th on tour).  Schwartzel has always been one of the more consistent golfers on tour and he should be able to put up a nice effort in Texas this week.
• Jerry Kelly – 80/1: Kelly comes into this one on an absolute tear with top-22 finishes in each of his last four events after missing the cut in five of his first 11 tourneys.  He’s had rounds of 67 or better six times in that stretch and has hit at least 68% of fairways each week while nailing 78% or more GIR twice.  It doesn’t hurt that the 48-year-old has two top-27 showings at this event in his past three visits as he continues to search for his first win on tour since 2009.  There are certainly plenty of sexier picks than Kelly, but his consistency lately warrants him consideration.
• Danny Lee – 100/1: Lee has been improving his standing on the PGA TOUR in each of his last three full seasons and is just outside of the top-50 in the FedExCup rankings after being in the top-25 in seven of his 13 made cuts.  He’s running hot at the moment with a top-22 performance in three of the past four weeks and had a third top-10 on the year last week at Colonial where he had two rounds of 66.  He failed to make the cut here last year after putting up a 77 on Friday, but should be able to use his solid putting (0.326 strokes gained putting, 42nd on tour) and skills out of the sand (64%, 11th on tour) to continue his recent success.
• Matt Jones – 100/1: Jones had a big year in 2014 with his first career victory and nearly $2 million in earnings but still has large Vegas odds this week despite making 12-of-15 cuts with two top-25s this year.  He’s in the top-60 in a ton of categories, ranking 56th in driving distance (292.2 yards per), 33rd in strokes gained putting (0.389), 42nd in going for the green (57.8%) and 31st in sand save percentage (58.9%).  Jones hasn’t played here since 2012, when he failed to miss the cut after posting a five-over-par in the first two days but has improved exponentially since and should be spotted towards the top of the leaderboard as the week winds down.
• Cameron Smith – 150/1: Smith was granted a sponsorship exemption for this tournament and is currently a professional golfer in Australia.  He will look to become the next great Aussie golfer after looking solid in a few of the events already this year—making the cut three times in seven attempts with a fifth-place at the CIMB Classic and 15th at the RBC Heritage.  He also made the cut in his most recent outing (a 43rd at the Zurich Classic), and his recent play should be able to propel him to a weekend with the fairly weak field in Dallas.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2015 AT&T Byron Nelson here.

Cover photo by @kendal_cugs920 on Instagram