Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview
It was a tough week that left many fantasy players baffled (us included) after some surprising missed cuts, horrendous weather, and a tough Torrey Pines all took their toll on our rosters. Needless to say they’ll be no 4-week win streak this time around but we love a good challenge and we’re ready to bounce back strong this week. That said, we’ll have more about last week’s picks in a minute, but first let’s head out to the Arizona desert for a preview of this week’s WM Phoenix Open.
There are some golf courses that are simply owned by certain players (Tiger and Torrey Pines, need we say more?), and this week those honors go to Phil Mickelson. The Arizona State alum and World Golf Hall-of-Famer would be this event’s first four-time winner if he earns the top spot this week. This will also mark Lefty’s 27th time competing in this event and he sits among an exclusive list of 3-time winners that includes Arnold Palmer, Gene Littler and Mark Calcavecchia. Phil had a rough appearance at Torrey last week but it’s tough to tell from that showing if we’ll pick him or not this week—we’ll have a deeper breakdown for Phil in our picks segment below.
OWGR No. 4 Rickie Fowler looked a little jet lagged at Torrey Pines but again, not going to put too much emphasis into anything that happened last week. Fowler is now most likely well rested despite this being his third straight week playing and a whole lot of miles logged in his private jet—beginning with his win in Abu Dhabi just a few weeks back. Make no mistake though, Rickie is charged up right now and he’s on a mission to retain his position on the Olympic Team, win a major, and win a Ryder Cup.
It’s nice to see a fantasy powerhouse like Bubba Watson in the field this week. Along with Rickie, Bubba should be a target to media outlets as being among their top picks this week, but if you’re playing ‘tiered’ or salary-cap leagues, chances are you won’t be able to pick them both on the same squad. Watson has been very close to winning this event in the last two years but ended up blowing his lead in 2014 and just falling short to Koepka last year.
After this event it’s back to Cali for two more events in the West Coast swing, then over to the East Coast for a four-week Florida swing where we should begin seeing a shake up within the fields with some new faces. One of those will be Rory McIlroy who will kick off his PGA TOUR season in California in two weeks.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
To say that Torrey Pines beat almost everyone up last week would be a huge understatement.
Brandt Snedeker came out of nowhere on a rainy and windy Sunday to fire an impressive 69 which under those conditions was well deserving to win the event. We’re sure not many fantasy players went with KJ Choi who finished just one stroke back. However, perhaps the biggest surprised where heavy favorites Fowler, Rose, and Day all missing the cut.
Our biggest flyer last week was Gary Woodland who shared the 36-hole lead before giving it all back and more in the final two days. We we’re hoping to make it four winners in a row, but sometimes we have to show our human side. We’re going to dust off that sloppy week and come back strong for this week’s WM Phoenix Open. In all, here’s how our picks performed last week:
Horse Pick: Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, or Dustin Johnson?
Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 8/1 FPPG: 106.75 GPFP: 135.57 Salary:$11,600): Of these three horse picks, DJ was the only survivor of the cut line on Friday and he finished T18.
Mid-Tier Pick I: Justin Rose, Brandt Snedeker, or Patrick Reed?
Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 16/1 FPPG: 99.5 GPFP: 123.38 Salary: $10,900): This is the one we are kicking ourselves over. It was truly a coin flip between Rose and Snedeker and in the end we simply ended up backing the wrong horse for our Mid-Tier 1 pick. Rose missed the cut right on the number and never saw the weekend.
Mid-Tier Pick II: Charles Howell III, Bill Haas, or J.B. Holmes?
Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 26/1 FPPG: 85.60 GPFP: 107.05 Salary: $9,400): Howell finished at a respectable T16 but Holmes clearly was the better pick with a T6 finish.
Low-Tier Picks (2): Gary Woodland, Harris English, and/or Jamie Lovemark?
Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 40/1 FPPG: 79.67 GPFP: 87.63 Salary: $8,700): We thought we had our 4th win in a row locked up the way Woodland was playing after the first two days. However, to our dismay he ended up blowing up (like 98% of the rest of the field) and finished T18th. In this Tier, he still ended finishing the best out of the three.
Jamie Lovemark (Golficity Odds 44/1 FPPG: 76.86 GPFP: 96.84 Salary: $8,300): Eh, we’re obviously not impressed with his T31 finish, but no one saw Streelman and Choi finishing where they did.
That’s the bad news. Now for a little good news let’s take a look at our winners picked season-to-date:
- Justin Thomas (CIMB Classic)
- Kevin Kisner (RSM Classic)
- Jordan Spieth (Hyundai TOC)
- Fabian Gomez (Sony Open)
- Jason Dufner (Career Builder Challenge)
** Emiliano Grillo was our Sleeper Report pick for the Frys.com Open (Winner).
The 2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open Field
We talked about Rickie, Bubba, and Phil in our preview, so let’s focus our attention here on some of the other names that can help us win this week. Kevin Kisner, Jason Dufner, and Brandt Snedeker, all who are having amazing starts to their 2015-16 campaign, will join defending champion Brook Koepka this week on the loudest stage of golf.
There are so many great players in the field this week (Malnati, Kaufman, Lovemark, Thomas, Lingmerth, Woodland, etc.) so you need to know the right ones to pick within their respective salary tier. We’ll put the Golficity Projected Fantasy Points algorithm trough the ringer this week to pick our favorite seven.
Here’s the full field for the WMPO this week.
The Course
The TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course measures in at 7,266 yards and will play as a par 71 this week. Beers will be flowing in Scottsdale this weekend as this is by far the biggest party venue on the PGA TOUR schedule—plus this year it will commemorate the event’s 30th year in this location. Amazingly, this course sees almost a half-million fans walk through the gates and usually finishes right around kickoff time for the Super Bowl.
The best feature of the aptly named Stadium Course course is the “Coliseum” surrounding the par-3 16th hole which presents the most obnoxious, loud, (and probably intoxicated) fans on TOUR anywhere. The energy at this event is by far the highest all season and it usually makes for a great week of golf. If you don’t recall, Tiger Woods made a hole-in-one on the 16th in his very first appearance at this event back in 1997.
We’ll talk more about the layout of the course and how it helps our fantasy strategy in our Fantasy Notes section below.
Golf Channel on Instagram: “The #WMPhoenixOpen proves there’s no such thing as ‘too much party’. TPC Scottsdale’s par-3 16th is already the rowdiest hole in golf – and now tournament officials are expanding the action to new luxury boxes at the par-4 17th.”
Golf Channel shared a post on Instagram: “The #WMPhoenixOpen proves there’s no such thing as ‘too much party’. TPC Scottsdale’s par-3 16th is already the rowdiest hole in golf – and now tournament officials are expanding the action to new luxury boxes at the par-4 17th.”. Follow their account to see 22368 posts.
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Weather Forecast for Scottsdale, AZ
Nothing to worry about this week in regards to weather in Arizona this week. The forecast in Scottsdale is calling for 70 degree temperatures and sunny skies with zero chance of rain all week (a nice change from last week).
Needless to say this should be a true-scoring week not altered by mother nature!
Last Year’s Results from the Waste Management Phoenix Open
In 2015 Brooks Koepka carded a 66 on Sunday and held off the charging Ryan Palmer, Bubba Watson, and Hideki Matsuyama to win his first PGA TOUR victory. The lead came after an impressive eagle on 15 and Brooks never looked back. After draining his 51-foot eagle from the edge of the 15th green, Koepka instantly climbed up the leaderboard leap-frogging over four players to the top-spot.
With so many missed opportunities by a handful of other players, Koepka stayed focused and hung on to a small margin of victory.
Highlights | Brooks Koepka joins the winners circle at Waste Management
In the final round of the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open, Brooks Koepka rallies to win his first PGA TOUR event by surviving Martin Laird and Hideki Matsuyama’s assault. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.
This Week’s Broadcast Schedule
- Television Broadcasts
- Thursday (Feb 4, 2016) – Friday (Feb 5, 2016) 3 pm – 7 pm (Golf Channel)
- Saturday (Feb 6, 2016) – Sunday (Feb 7, 2016): 1 pm – 3 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3 pm – 6pm EST (CBS)
- Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM
- Thursday (Feb 4, 2016) – Friday (Feb 5, 2016): 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
- Saturday (Feb 6, 2016) – Sunday (Feb 7, 2016): 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open this Week
As of Tuesday morning 8am EST, salaries are still not yet available for DraftKings (due to the late finish at last week’s Farmers). You can however still reserve entry to this week’s events. That said, here are a few we recommend for the WM Phoenix Open.
- PGA $600K THUNDERDOME [MASTERS WEEK, $150K TO 1ST]: Here’s a game for all you fantasy ballers out there. For a hefty $5,300 entry fee (yes we said that correctly), you can take on a very small field of 120 fantasy players for a chance to win the $150,000 first prize. Time to put your money where your mouth is! Here’s your full payout details:
- PGA $300K DRIVE THE GREEN [$50K TO 1ST]: Now, for those of us who don’t have $5k to gamble, you can either try DraftKings’ usual $27 entry game to compete among 5,000 players or this big $3 dollar dame. Just note, this cheap entry game will require a bit more luck since you’ll be playing against over 100,000 entrants but you can mix and match our picks below to create a handful of $3 rosters to increase your chances.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open
It looks like the weather and playing conditions in Scottsdale will be much better than it was at Torrey Pines last week. Players have been known to go low here and the past few years winners have fell somewhere in the -15 to -18 range.
GIR stats are low on this course (62.48% in 2015 which was a six-year low) so watch for the winner this week either have excellent GIR numbers be a scrambling wizard to keep up.
That said, key stats to look out for this week aside from GIR will be Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Birdie Rate, and any of the other key statistical indicators that usually correlate to a low scoring course. Remember, the winner will have to go super low this week to take home the hardware.
So, do you pick Bubba to finally win one in the desert, or does Koepka win his one and only title defense? Will Rickie bounce back to win after a missed cut like he did last year during the Playoffs? Will Brandt stay hot after an amazing final day at Torrey? Hmm, lots to think about this week.
So lets dive right in…
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open
(Note: Keep in mind most of these 2016 statistics are a result of only one or two events for most of these players and are therefore limited in their predictive capacity.)
Horse Pick: Bubba Watson or Rickie Fowler?
Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 8/1, GPFP: 140.80): Other than Phil, who we can’t put too much faith into at this point, Bubba is the only true horse for the course here in Scottsdale. Watson has proven a high level of comfort as at TPC Scottsdale where he’s carded par or better in all 34 career rounds. His scoring average on this track has been below the average of 70.52 in his last two times played here (68.24) with an actual scoring average of 68.24. He’e also finished T2 in his last two attempts here at the WM Phoenix Open and we simply like a rested Watson over a tired Fowler this week. Plus, Bubba thrives on this type of electric atmosphere.
- GIR Rank: 4th
- Driving Distance: 1st
- Scrambling: 71st
- Scoring Average: 161st
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 6th
* Most Notable Stat: GIR Rank: 4th
Mid-Tier I Pick: Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Kisner, or Brooks Koepka?
Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds 10/1, GPFP: 97.79): Chances are you won’t be able to fit both Snedeker and Watson on your salary-cap roster unless you go with all sleepers to fill the other four slots, but if you can fit both in your Yahoo! league, run with it. We normally stay away from previous week winners but this course is set up really nicely for a guy who’s playing on top of his game right now. Sneddy has an amazing three Top 3s (3, 2, 1) in his last three starts and looks to be a strong contender for another FedExCup (a stark change from what we’ve seen from him in the last year or two). Keep in mind that he also has four top 10 finishes at the WMPO including a T10 last year.
- GIR Rank: 62nd
- Driving Distance: 59th
- Scrambling: 21st
- Scoring Average: 10th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 61st
* Most Notable Stat: Total Putting: 14th
Mid-Tier II Pick: Jason Dufner or Hideki Matsuyama?
Jason Dufner (Golficity Odds 18/1, GPFP: 70.80): Matsuyama has proven himself on this track, but Dufner is the one with the hot hand right now. Already a winner on TOUR this year, Dufner looks like he has fixed his golf swing and now has his sites set on becoming the dominant player he once was. He’s not long off the tee but he’s accurate and knows how to find greens. Duf’s last outing included a playoff win at PGA WEST followed by a T9 at The Sony Open. With three top 10s already this season (more than all of 2014 and 2015), he looks to be on the fast track for a FedExCup and Ryder Cup campaign. Plus, Jason knows this track well and even finished second here in 2011.
- GIR Rank: 20th
- Driving Distance: 99th
- Scrambling: 103rd
- Scoring Average: 5th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 13th
* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 5th
Low-Tier Picks (II): Charles Howell, Kevin Na, or David Lingmerth?
David Lingmerth (Golficity Odds 28/1, GPFP: 86.56): Ligmerth has been streaky but overall he’s progressing in the right direction. He opened up 2016 with a T15-T13-P2 run and is very accurate off the tee (11th in Driving Accuracy). The young Swede ranks 9th in the All-Around and 16th in Total Driving. He’ll also be trying to edge his way onto the Sweden team for the upcoming Olympics and will have to outperform current Swedish qualifiers Henrik Stenson and Alexander Noren. David’s only appearance at this event was 2014 where he finished T42 but his game is much better now than it was then as he’s undeniably in top form right now.
- GIR Rank: 73rd
- Driving Distance: 114th
- Scrambling: 39th
- Scoring Average: 67th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 37th
* Most Notable Stat: All-Around Ranking: 9th
Kevin Na (Golficity Odds 36/1, GPFP: 82.87): Kevin Na currently ranks 4th in the FedExCup points list for a reason. Simply put, Na is off to a great start this season and we’re sure he’ll fare well on a course where he is 9-for-10 (made cuts) with four Top 5 finishes. So far this season he has an amazing four top three finishes including his most recent where he took home a T3 at the CareerBuilder. Na has a great approach game, knows how to scramble, and his tee-to-green stats are amazing so far year to date. When all is said and done, Kevin Na checks off a lot of boxes for us this week and could put up a great showing at TPC Scottsdale.
- GIR Rank: 24th
- Driving Distance: 93rd
- Scrambling: 18th
- Scoring Average: 2nd
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 9th
* Most Notable Stat: All-Around Ranking: 9th
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Fabian Gomez (Golficity Odds 50/1, GPFP: 97.27): Gomez looked good early on before ultimatly disappointing us last week but he’s a monster when it comes to GIR and Scrambling. You simply can’t hang your head on the Gomez pick last week, Torrey Pines was brutal for almost everyone including a number of heavy favorite selections. We are staying on the Gomez train one more time this week due purely on his YTD stats. He should return to his strong form and play well this week in these conditions with his putter being his only enemy right now.
- GIR Rank: 12th
- Driving Distance: 87th
- Scrambling: 7th
- Scoring Average: 6th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 16th
* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 6th
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Si Woo Kim (Golficity Odds 66/1, GPFP: 81.13): Kim has been playing well as of late and adding some excellent fantasy value to us all. With two Top 10s and six total Top 25s, Kim has been proving himself quickly on TOUR. He possesses an impressive rank in scoring average (8th) and excels well in scrambling (23rd)—both crucial stats for this week. He’s come a long way since his disappointing 2014 season, and we love that he’s a rookie on this course taking a fresh look at everything TPC Scottsdale has to offer. There’s no denying that he’s a bit of a long-shot but you stand a good chance of catching lightning in a bottle this week with Kim on your roster.
- GIR Rank: 98th
- Driving Distance: 85th
- Scrambling: 23rd
- Scoring Average: 8th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 27th
* Most Notable Stat: Total Driving: 14th
DraftKings Sample Roster With Bubba
DraftKings Sample Roster #1 Without Bubba
DraftKings Sample Roster #2 Without Bubba
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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open
- Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 8/1): MC
- Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 16/1): MC
- Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 26/1): T16
- Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 40/1): T18
- Jamie Lovemark (Golficity Odds 44/1): T31
Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open
- Fabian Gomez (Golficity Odds 60/1): MC
Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open
- Smylie Kaufman (Golficity Odds 75/1): T25
Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)
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Cover Photo via Flickr
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