Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Sleeper Preview

The PGA TOUR will follow up a great finish in the desert last week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open with a visit to three famous Pebble Beach courses for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.  The annual event hosts over 300 players, both professional and amateur, on three different venues (Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club) over the four days of competition.  There is always a buzz surrounding this tournament with the multitude of names that come to the area while taking place in the beautiful February weather of California.

Plenty of big celebrities will be joining professionals this week to play this amazing game and the list includes such names as Justin Timberlake, Toby Keith, Mark Wahlberg, Kenny G, Ray Romano, Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith, and Kelly Slater among others.  The big names from music, movies, television, and sports are also bringing along some great golfers as the field will be led by Official World Golf Rankings No. 1 golfer, Jordan Spieth.  Joining him will be some other impressive pros in No. 3 Jason Day, No.6 Bubba Watson, No. 7 Justin Rose, No. 8 Dustin Johnson, No. 9 Patrick Reed, and another six players from the top-25.

No. 14 golfer in the world, Brandt Snedeker, will return to Pebble Beach looking to defend the record breaking title that he earned last season.  It was his second win at this event as he torched the field by three strokes while putting up tournament record numbers of 265 and 22-under-par.  He should also be running hot after a solid start to the year, winning the Farmers Insurance Open just two weeks ago.  Along with Snedeker, Phil Mickelson (1998, 2005, 2007, 2012) and Dustin Johnson (2009, 2010) come into this week as participants who are previous multiple time winners when playing here.

This tourney has been dominated by Americans recently as they have taken home the trophy in each attempt since 2004 when Vijay Singh was the winner.  There should also be plenty of scoring to go around as the event has produced a winning score of 15-under-par or better in eight of the last ten outings.  Also in recent years, the wealth of scoring by the field has caused a logjam near the top of the leaderboard and the margin of victory has been two or fewer shots in six of the past eight installments.

The field is one of the strongest thus far in the new season, but the amount of scoring that will be put up this week should allow for some names lower in the odds to catch lightning in a bottle and come out firing for the entire weekend.  Below are a few players who have a good chance at doing this while overcoming their longer Vegas odds (50/1 or greater).

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2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Sleeper Report

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2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Bryce Molder – Vegas Odds 80/1: Molder is a bit inconsistent for a player at these fairly decent odds against a field this strong, making a mere 3-of-7 cuts during this season; but he has some great performances in 2016 and a strong history at Pebble Beach.  In his three visits to the weekend this year, he has finished in fourth, sixth, and 28th while sandwiching going 11-under-par on Thursday and Saturday and two-over-par on Friday and Sunday in Scottsdale this past weekend.  His consistency has been much better when attending this event, though, and since 2010 he is 5-for-6 in cuts made and has been in the top-15 four times.  Molder may not be the guy you turn on the TV for every week, but he does have a PGA TOUR win in his back pocket and is playing at a course which he favors, so an impressive outing may be in the cards for the 37-year-old.

Kevin Streelman – Vegas Odds 100/1: Streelman has also not been playing with the most consistency in the early going of the 2015-16 season, going 5-for-8 in cuts made with three top-25s.  His overall career performance makes him a little bit more of a safe bet, though, as he has finished in the top-75 of the FedExCup standings in all but two years since 2008 and owns two victories with another eight runner-up or third-place showings over 229 career events.  Streelman has been a deadeye from the fairway, hitting greens in regulation at an impressive 75% clip (18th on TOUR) and that has helped mask his horrendous -0.396 strokes gained putting (166th on TOUR).  As long as he keeps getting on the dance floor he should be able to make a run at a week like he had here in 2012 when he was able to tie for ninth while hitting 80% of fairways, 72% of GIR and gaining 0.842 strokes on the field with his usually suspect putting.

William McGirt – Vegas Odds 100/1: If you look at McGirt’s trend at Pebble Beach, you would think he was going to miss the cut this year, as he has flip-flopped solid performances and two-day showings each of the past five years while coming away with a 21st in 2015.  Other factors point towards him breaking that trend and getting to the weekend, though, as his only blemish this year came at the CareerBuilder Challenge—Willie made the cut and earned at least a 30th in each of his other five outings.  In three of those instances, he has been in the top-13, and even came close to getting his first career PGA TOUR win at the Sanderson Farms Championship, eventually finishing as the runner-up with a score of 17-under.  McGirt has been one of the best overall ballstrikers out there this year, gaining 1.128 strokes on the field from tee-to-green (20th on TOUR) and now owns the seventh-best scoring average (69.843) through last week.  If he can keep up his solid play, he could jump into the top-10 for the third time on the year this week while competing against some very talented players in California.

Jason Bohn – Vegas Odds 125/1: Bohn comes into this event playing some of the best golf on the PGA TOUR this season, racking up a pair of runner-up performances and a third-place in a mere six times out.  A big difference here will certainly be the players he is going up against as those top finishes came against early-season shallow fields at the Frys.Com Open, Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, and the OHL Classic.  Still, a top showing is just that and he has been able to accomplish such high finishes thanks to ranking 13th in driving accuracy (69.25%), 14th in GIR (75.6%), and 12th in strokes gained from tee-to-green (1.351).  Bohn’s history here is abysmal, but with his play in recent months being so solid, it would not be a surprise to see him among the leaders at the end.

Jon Curran – Vegas Odds 175/1: Curran has made the trek to Pebble Beach just once in his short career, and it was a solid debut as he finished in 10th last year despite his poor putting (-0.726 strokes gained).  Over the four days he hit 79.17% of GIR and 74.55% of fairways while shooting astonishingly well (-10) on the par threes and fours.  The early season has not been overly promising for the soon-to-be 29-year-old who is 4-of-8 in cuts made—although he has shown some solid skills with a fourth at the RSM Classic and a nice tie for 11th at the Waste Management Open just last week.  Curran’s strength is his putting as he evidenced by his ranking 5th this year in strokes-gained in that area (0.911) and after showing what he could do here last year—even with a horrible performance on the flat surface—he should be able to put up even better numbers come Thursday.

Need a few more options to fill up your roster?  Remember to check out our new fantasy predictions stats page for Golficity Predicted Fantasy Points, Price Per Fantasy Point, and more info on every player in this week’s field!

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am here.

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