Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The FedEx St. Jude Classic 2016

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the FedEx St. Jude Classic

The FedEx St. Jude Classic 2016 Fantasy Sleeper Preview

As the players leave an exciting week in the Memorial Tournament, one in which William McGirt was able to take home a trophy for the first time since 2011 in a playoff with Jon Curran, the PGA TOUR now heads to Memphis, Tennessee for the FedEx St. Jude Classic.  The host since 1989 has been the par-70, 7,244-yard TPC Southwind course, which has done a great job at challenging players over the past handful of years as they traverse a natural layout with plenty of streams and ponds.

The winning score has been hard to come by over the past six years with the victor averaging just better than 11 strokes under par.  All but one of those wins came by two or fewer strokes, with Fabian Gomez’s four-shot beat down of the field last year being the largest victory since Brian Gay’s in 2005.  Gomez also was able to snap a streak of four consecutive players from the United States taking home the trophy, returning it instead to his home country of Argentina.  He used a final round 66 to outlast runner-up Greg Owen, as they shared the lead going into the final day.

Also taking a stab at the win was future Hall-of-Famer Phil Mickelson, who finished five shots back and recorded his third consecutive finish in the top-11 here.

Gomez will look to join five others as multiple-time winners in this event, including most recently Justin Leonard (2005, 2008) and back-to-back winners Dave Hill (1967, 1969, 1970, 1973), Lee Trevino (1971, 1972, 1980) and David Toms (2003, 2004).

Last week in Jack Nicklaus’ event, many of the biggest names in the world came out to play, and while there are some talented players making their way to Memphis, there is nowhere near the amount that played in the Memorial.  Coming off another solid effort and leading the pack in this event will be Official World Golf Rankings No. 6 golfer Dustin Johnson.  No other player from the top-10 will be joining him, and there will be a mere two other golfers coming from the top-25; No. 17 Brooks Koepka and No. 20 Phil Mickelson.

A couple other names to watch out for on the top of the odds are No. 46 Daniel Berger, No. 62 Ryan Palmer, and last week’s runner-up, Jon Curran, who jumped more than 100 spots in the world rankings to No. 89. Plenty of college graduates will also be showing off their talent with their seasons winding down. Most notable of that pack is Lee McCoy, who looks to improve on a fourth he had at the Valspar Championship with amateur status.

The field leaves this one wide open for anyone to win, as many of the top golfers take off the week leading up to the U.S. Open.  A few here will also be looking to get into the next major championship by either jumping into the top-60 of the world rankings or by taking home the trophy.  Below are some “sleeper” players who seem geared up to perform well at this beautiful course despite owning less than impressive odds.

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The FedEx St. Jude Classic Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The FedEx St. Jude Classic Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Retief Goosen – Vegas Odds 70/1 – Goosen is coming off back-to-back top-15 finishes, and has been nearly perfect heading into the weekend this year, going 10-for-11 (91%) in cuts made.  He has carded a 70 or better in four of his last eight rounds, and looked great in his last outing at THE PLAYERS Championship with a tie for 12^th.  The 47-year-old would not usually be expected to challenge the best players in the world, but this week he will need to take down fewer elite golfers thanks to the weak field, and his experience will be more important in this type of event.

Few can match Goosen on the green, as he has gained 0.451 strokes with the flat stick (25^th on Tour) and dominates in the first round with an average of 27.18 putts on Thursdays (2^nd on Tour).  If he can get off to a strong start, Goosen has a chance to add to his seven career PGA TOUR victories.

Chad Campbell – Vegas Odds 75/1 – Campbell has been having his best season since 2011, and while he does not make as many cuts as you would like (12-of-21), he already has more top-10’s (3) then he has had in any of the past three seasons.  The main reason he earns a spot on this list is thanks to past success in this specific event, and since 2010 he is a perfect 6-for-6 in cuts made with two top-eight finishes.

He earned one of those last year, coming in with a tie for eighth behind a score of seven under while gaining 1.001 strokes putting.  Campbell’s all-around game is impressive, as he ranks in the top-50 in driving accuracy (65.94%, 36^th on Tour), GIR (67.93%, 40^th on Tour), and scrambling (61.42%, 49^th on Tour), and the ability to do so much should give him an advantage against the weak field.

Tim Wilkinson – Vegas Odds 90/1 – Wilkinson hails from New Zealand and is having the best season of his career since turning pro back in 2003.  His FedExCup standing of 108 would certainly be his best, and it has come from great consistency, making 11-of-13 cuts (85%), rather than top notch performances.  His best string of golf has came over his past few outings, though, and before tying for 47^th in the Dean and Deluca Invitational, he finished in 11^th in the Wells Fargo Championship and fourth at the AT&T Byron Nelson.  His fourth place showing came thanks to four sub-70 rounds while hitting 72.22% of GIR and 69.64% of fairways.

His abilities around the green are some of the best on Tour this season, as he has gained 0.382 strokes around the green, ranking third in scrambling (67.23%), while also gaining .605 strokes putting (11^th on TOUR).  Wilkinson has made the cut here each of the past two years, but has not done better than 32^nd, and will have a great chance at improving on those finishes in the coming week.

Fabian Gomez – Vegas Odds 100/1 – Gomez was the winner here last season, and he did so in very impressive fashion, defeating his closest competitor by four strokes as he hit 68.06% of GIR and putt 0.976 strokes better than the field.  It was not his first time having success here either, as he took home a 15^th back in 2011 and has also been able to grab his second PGA TOUR victory this season; defeating Brandt Snedeker in a playoff at the Sony Open in mid-January.

He has not had the best of success lately, but is just a month removed from a ninth in the Wells Fargo Championship and has five top-25’s in 2016.  The Argentinean has proven he has the ability to put up huge weeks at a moment’s notice, and he will attempt to join a few back-to-back winners here with a victory in Memphis.

Harold Varner III – Vegas Odds 100/1 – Varner III is making the most of his rookie campaign on the PGA TOUR after graduating from the Web.com TOUR, where he played 46 events between 2014 and 2015.  Thus far he is 13-for-20 in cuts made (65%) and has already been in the top-10 three times.  The 25-year-old has played into the weekend in each of his last six outings, and has two of his top-10’s during that stretch.

Varner III looked to have another big week at the Memorial, but a Sunday 79 knocked him down to 57^th after being near the top heading into the final day.  He gains most of his strokes off of the tee, averaging 301.4 yards per drive (21^st on TOUR) and is amazing on par-fives, with an average score of 4.53 on the long holes (6^th on Tour). Varner’s length off the tee will help him this week and he should be good to make his seventh consecutive cut and possibly much better.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for the FedEx St. Jude Classic here.

Cover photo via Flickr