Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Hero World Challenge

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Hero World Challenge

2016 Hero World Challenge Fantasy Preview

It seems like an eternity ago that Mackenzie Hughes triumphed in a five-man playoff at the RSM Classic to become the second Web.com Tour graduate to triumph in the fall season, but remarkably that victory was only two short weeks ago.

In the meantime, Denmark have been crowned ‘champions of the world,’ pardon our cynicism, after the pair of Thorbjorn Olesen and Soren Kjeldsen triumphed over the French duo of Victor Dubuisson and Roman Langasque in the World Cup of Golf at the Kingston Heath club in Melbourne, Australia.

Trend followers, lend us your ears: this week’s host venue for the Hero World Challenge, the Albany Club in the Bahamas, is said to be a ‘classic, Australian sandbelt’ style course; so perhaps the World Cup does offer us more of a performance insight than we might first have thought.

This is the final ‘quality field’ event of 2016, so DFS managers should be looking to sign the calendar year off in style with this tricky but still workable tournament.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the RSM Classic

The best overall performer that came out of the RSM Classic was our sleeper pick Russell Henley who finished with a strong T10.  Our Tuesday Sleeper Report continued to have success with four of the five players selected making the cut including Lovemark who outperformed his salary to finish T6 and Campbell who came in with a solid T13 finish.

As a matter of note, we will not be publishing a Tuesday Sleeper Report for this week’s Hero World Challenge because the greatly limited field does not lend itself to producing the usual number of “sleepers.”  Our top two sleeper selections will instead be highlighted in our picks segment below.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the DP World Tour Championship

We fared much better overseas last week with in the final stretch of the Race to Dubai as three of our top six picks finished in the Top 4 including Schwartzal (3rd), Molinari (T4), and Weisberger (T4).

In total, our six picks banked a combined purse winnings in excess of $1 million and only two of our six picks (across multiple salary tiers) placed outside the Top 19.

The 2016 Hero World Challenge Field

Perhaps the most dominant story from this week’s field is, quite simply, the return of Tiger Woods.

The 14-time major winner takes his bow after recovering from back surgery, but what state is his swing in?  You may remember he withdrew from the Safeway Open earlier in the Fall campaign, and here’s a snippet of the statement he released immediately after:

“I knew I wasn’t ready to compete against the best golfers in the world. I will continue to work hard, and plan to play at my Foundation’s event, the Hero World Challenge, in Albany.”

The assumption is that he is only playing this week due to charitable commitments, but wouldn’t it be great to see glimpses of the Tiger of old in the Bahamas? Here’s a look at the Big Cat striping his new M2 driver from TaylorMade.

A video posted by Brian Wacker (@brianwacker1) on Nov 28, 2016 at 10:29am PST

Aside from the Woods sideshow, the Hero World Challenge field boasts nine former major winners in its exclusively invited 18-man field and, remarkably, three players that have won tournaments in the past few weeks alone: Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka.

The defending champion, Bubba Watson, is also here, and he will have plenty of competition on his hands from the likes of Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Patrick Reed and others.

It should prove to be a captivating four days.

This Week’s Course Preview

This is only the second tour-level event that the Albany club has hosted—the first being the 2015 renewal of this tournament—and so we only have a limited amount of data to work with.

What we do know is that it is a lengthy enough 7,400 yard, Par 72 stretch, but one that was described by Spieth last year as ‘like a pitch and putt for the power guys’.  With five par 5s, five par 3s and eight par 4s (rather than the usual four-four-ten ratio), you can kind of see what he means.

A photo posted by @loveat1stswing on Nov 28, 2016 at 2:50am PST

Albany has been described as “Linksy” in nature and like many of the sandbelt courses from Australasia, and the conditions have a Links feel about them due to the exposed nature of the track and occasionally fierce winds that can blow.  The stunning vistas are added further gravitas by the accompanying sand dunes, which can measure up to 30 feet tall!

Weather Forecast for New Providence, The Bahamas

After a bright start to the week, things are expected to take a turn for the worse in New Providence with rain in the forecast from Wednesday through Saturday.  Things should improve by Sunday with a bright and sunny day forecast, so hopefully given that the field is just 18 there won’t be too many delays.

Thursday and Friday are expected to be a little less breezy than the weekend, with speeds of up to 12 mph predicted, but as any coastal player will tell you at local level those gusts can often feel more intense.

Last Year’s Results from the Hero World Challenge

Last year was the first occasion that the Albany club had hosted the Hero World Challenge—in fact, any PGA TOUR level event for that matter—and so there was a lot of guesswork which went into drafting an effective DFS line-up.

After the first round it looked like those who sided with ‘wind players’ were going to have the last laugh with Jimmy Walker and Zach Johnson sharing the lead.  But strong second rounds from Spieth, Bill Haas, and Chris Kirk got them into contention, before a 63 from Bubba on Saturday forced him into the lead.

Despite a sterling weekend effort from Rickie Fowler, whose 65-64 took him into third, Bubba eventually closed out his win at -25, three shots clear of runner-up Patrick Reed.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwuKyOo4UY4[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday: 1:30pm EST – 4:30pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday: 12:00pm EST – 2:30pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Sunday: 11:00am EST – 1:00pm EST (Golf Channel)
• Mobile Broadcasts:
  •  NA
• RADIO: (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com)
  • NA

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Hero World Challenge this Week

This is your last real chance to play DFS golf in 2016 (for PGA TOUR events anyway), so now might be the time to go in hard in readiness for the new calendar year.  With that in mind, here’s a pair of daily fantasy contests that are worthy of your investment:

• PGA $70K Dogleg: 2452 players enter, one scoops up the $10k top prize.  If you have a spare $33 in your DraftKings account, now could be the time to invest it.

• PGA $100k Fore: For just a $4 entry, you could trouser the top prize of $5k in this huge contest.  With the top 50 players winning a minimum of $100, this is an excellent chance to add to your kitty in readiness for 2017.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Hero World Challenge 

Unfortunately, we have rather slim pickings to work with as far as statistical background is concerned.  Not a sausage was recorded last year – no strokes gained, no driving accuracy, no nothing – so we have little to play with.  But, we can take a look at Bubba’s run at Albany to offer some clues as to what we need to be looking at this week.

Clearly, with five par 5s to attack we’re looking for a power hitter: Bubba played the longer holes at -13 and clearly that was the foundation for his victory.  A number of the par 4s are attackable too (he played those at -9) and as such we need to have birdie monsters on side who can get close to the winning score expected, which will be around the -25 mark if the winds stay agreeable.

We still don’t know if current form is a factor here, although clearly it should help.  Bubba had a month off after the Asia swing in 2015, and his prior outing to his triumph in Albany was a T35 in China.  A number of players will be teeing off for the first time in a number of weeks here, and clearly we are going to favor those with a bit of form under their belts.

This is one of the very few times when our picks almost select themselves.  We have an 18-man field, but we can discount a decent percentage of them from the get go.  Tiger?  Not on our team until we have some kind of idea how is game is working out.  A few others – Emiliano Grillo, Brandt Snedeker, and Louis Oosthuizen are yet to sample the delights of this course and have no real form of late to speak of.

Consequently, perming five from fourteen should not prove too testing.

Note: Due to the small field this week, there will be no Tuesday Sleeper Report.  Sleepers are provided below. Also, GPGP stats are limited due to players lack of play so far this season.

[membership level=”0″]

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Hero World Challenge

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member? Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Hero World Challenge

Top Tier Pick: 

Jordan Spieth (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 79.2, GPFP: 63.39  Salary: $10,300)

For any golf aficionado this pick might just raise a few eyebrows—particularly for those who witnessed Spieth’s lack of form in the second half of the campaign—but a new set of clubs, a tweaked swing and increased confidence following the Ryder Cup swept Spieth to a fine win at the Australian Open just two weeks ago; a title he successfully defended.

Form at this time of year seems to be a given for the 23-year-old, and he had a nice look at Albany in 2015 which resulted in a fourth-place finish.

Spieth’s critics suggest that when his putter deserts him he becomes a rather ordinary player, especially off the tee, and the stats kind of back that up.  But with confidence high, we’re happy to go with the idea that his tee-to-green game is in good enough shape to at least give him the opportunity to gain some strokes on the field on the dancefloor.

All things being equal, Spieth is one of the finest players on the planet; let’s hope he proves it this week.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Putting – 2nd
• Birdie Average – 3rd
• Strokes Gained: Total – 5th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Brooks Koepka (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 70.7, GPFP: 56.55 Salary: $8,900)

Many fancied that Koepka’s game would be well suited to this Albany test – the long, lacerating drives backed by a handy short game resulting in birdie opportunities galore – and that certainly proved to be the case given his seventh place finish.

The Florida native will be looking to do even better this time around, and he comes here in excellent spirtits having won the Phoenix Open in Japan two weeks ago; just a matter of weeks after going so close at the Shriners.

Koepka has long been considered one of the next breed of talents likely to do wonderful things in the game, and maybe 2017 will be his year.  Victory in the Bahamas this week would be an excellent way to start.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Total – 3rd
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee – 10th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 10th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Rickie Fowler (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 69.4, GPFP: 55.50 Salary: $7,900)

You could conclude that Fowler really ups his game when he has the stars & stripes on his chest; certainly after stirring performances in the Ryder Cup and last week’s World Cup we could make that assertion.

He and partner Jimmy Walker were excellent in Australia to claim third, and that was not the first time that the 27-year-old has performed well in the sandbelt countries; he is a known fan of Dubai in particular.

Fowler confirmed his ability in playing well outside of the US with a T7 at the WGC-HSBC Champions event in China in October, and a third here in 2015 sets up a fine week from Fowler rather well.  Like Koepka, he’ll be looking to smash through the glass ceiling in 2017.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Total – 6th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 8th
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green – 11th

Low-Tier Pick #1:

JB Holmes (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 62.1,  GPFP: 49.67 Salary: $6,800)

JB is ranked as the complete outsider in this tournament with the Vegas bookmakers, but we fancy that Holmes might just outperform those expectations somewhat.

Here’s another powerhouse who can shoot low when required, and his extra power off the tee will surely count on these five par 5s.  An eighth place return in this event last year confirms his suitability for the test.

Fans of omens rejoice: Bubba finished T35 in his prior outing to the Hero World Challenge; the same return as Holmes in his jaunt to the Far East.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 1st
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee – 6th
• Birdie Average – 8th

Low-Tier Pick #2:

Jimmy Walker (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 59.9, GPFP: 47.92 Salary: $6,500)

A year ago Walker shot 66-67-71-67 here to take a share of eighth place, and clearly without that below-par Saturday he could have contended more seriously.

Since then he’s bagged a major and once again it is surprising to see how little he is rated by daily fantasy salary setters (not that we are complaining!).  The form guide isn’t all that strong but he did play some excellent golf in Australia last week, and Walker is one of those guys who tends to heat up slowly before burning bright.

If the wind gets up, he will love it at Albany with his scoring power.

Key Stats:

• Going for the Green: Birdie or Better – 1st
• Strokes Gained: Approach the Green – 15th
• Strokes Gained: Total – 20th

Sleeper Pick for the Hero World Challenge

Bubba Watson (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 71.6,  GPFP: 57.31 Salary: $7,600)

The epitome of a sleeper pick, Bubba can be all or nothing; sometimes both within the same round.

He held it together for 72 to win here last year, and as a serial ‘multiple time winner’ he has to be taken seriously.  The leftie has claimed a pair of Masters, Northern Trust Open, and Travelers Championship titles, which shows he is the sheer definition of a “horses for courses” man.

His game is almost purpose-built for Albany, and nobody would be surprised if Bubba is contending come Sunday – or dead last, for that matter.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee – 3rd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 4th
• Driving Distance – 4th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Hero World Challenge

Justin Rose (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 70.2,  GPFP: 56.18 Salary: $8,200)

It’s not often that you will have the opportunity to play Rose at odds of 22/1 or draft him at $8,200, and his status as an excellent sleeper here is confirmed by the fact that – despite a lengthy injury lay-off – he owns a property on this resort and as such will surely know the course like the back of his hand.  He even had nine holes with Tiger on Monday!

The question mark comes over his ‘match sharpness’; it has been eight weeks since he struck a competitive golf ball, so clearly caution is advised.  But if you are looking for a mid-tier pick for your draft, you could do a whole lot worse than the Englishman.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee – 5th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 5th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 7th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

 Lineup Sample With Spieth

Lineup Sample Without Spieth

[/membership]

Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”2.38%” bar_text=”1 out of 42 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.42%” bar_text=”9 out of 42 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”28.57%” bar_text=”12 out of 42 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 6 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 6 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”66.67″ bar_text=”28 out of 42 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Hero Challenge with other Premium Members.

---

Cover Photo via Instagram