Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Waste Management Phoenix Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Waste Management Phoenix Open

2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Preview

Wow, what a breathless ending to the Farmers Insurance Open that was last week.  In an event played in brutally windy conditions throughout, and with some nine players at some point or other sharing the lead during the final round, it was the prodigiously talented Jon Rahm who eventually got over the line with an incredible Sunday 65; of which the back nine was played in just 30.

Given how all around him were struggling to keep their game together as the winds got stronger, we quite impressed with Rahm’s ability to keep his cool – the Spaniard will be one to watch this year, particularly in the US Open.

Now the PGA TOUR waves goodbye to its Californian jaunt and heads east to Arizona this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, a tournament which has become a firm favorite among golf fans specifically for its TPC Scottsdale home.  The famous ‘Coliseum’ 16th hole has become the stuff of legend, and it will be interesting to see how many more dreams of glory will be shattered in front of a packed auditorium come Sunday.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Farmers’ Insurance Open

It was a wild week at Torrey Pines, and not many people expected the likes of Justin Day, Dustin Johnson, Jimmy Walker, and Rickie Fowler to miss the cut.  John Rahm came out of nowhere to surprise everyone with an electric round on Sunday.  Kudos to you John!

 

In total, we made four cuts of the seven picks last week including a T2 finish from Charles Howell and two T20 finishes from Gary Woodland and Brendan Steele.  Woodland had one eagle, thirteen birdies, fifty pars, and one bogey-free round en route to 75.5 fantasy points.  Howell III truly was a solid pick at $7,300 as he came in with seventeen birdies, one eagle and his T2 finish earning him an additional 20 bonus fantasy points.

Looking further down the rosters our Tuesday Sleeper Report featured Tony Finau at 60/1 odds and a $7,700 dollar price tag.  Finau seriously outperformed his DraftKings price tag by banking a T4 finish and 95.5 fantasy points on the week.

The 2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open Field

Three of the world’s hottest golfing talents will do battle in Arizona, with Hideki Matsuyama defending the trophy he won at the expense of a heartbroken Rickie Fowler in a playoff last year.  Hoping to wrestle the silverware away from the Japanese sensation will be Justin Thomas, incredibly looking for his fourth win of the season already, and Jordan Spieth, JT’s great friend who you suspect wouldn’t mind some of the limelight back.

 
That triumvirate will be joined by Fowler, no doubt looking for redemption, twice runner-up Bubba Watson, three-time winner Phil Mickelson in his 28th appearance at Scottsdale, and Ryder Cup champions JB Holmes, Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, and Brooks Koepka.

Europe is well represented here as well with Russell Knox, Shane Lowry, and debutant Andrew Johnston taking their bow, while the likes of Charles Howell III and Tony Finau will be looking to kick on from their near misses in San Diego.

This Week’s Course Preview

TPC Scottsdale is one of the jewels in the PGA TOUR’s crown, and with some 500,000 visitors to the course each year it can also lay claim to being one of the most populated (and loudest!).

Measuring 7,266 yards for its Par 71, Scottsdale is a fairly tough test of credentials; barring Phil Mickelson’s outlier victory in 2013 of -28, the last four victories have come at either -15 or -16, so the players can expect another war of attrition in the desert.

 
The track is said to be Links-style in nature, and a renovation prior to the 2015 hosting resulted in resurfaced greens, additional bunkers and some 100 yards added to the course length.  Matsuyama’s -14 in regulation play was the ‘worst’ winning score here since 2009.

Scottsdale is the classic ‘all-rounders’ track, with a list of former winners ranging from boomers like JB Holmes and Brooks Koepka, short-game kings like Phil Mickelson and putt-the-lights-out merchants such as Aaron Baddeley.

The focal point of the course has to be those closing three holes, however.  The Par Three Coliseum (16th) is wholly surrounded by grandstands with some 20,000 cramming in to create a heart-racing atmosphere.  The scoring average in 2016 here was 3.018, with 16% of players shooting a birdie, 17% going one-over and the rest downing in three.  It is an outstanding test of any potential winners’ intestinal fortitude.

The 17th is a driveable Par 4 but with water lurking menacingly on the left of the green – many will remember this hazard as the ultimate downfall of Fowler 12 months ago.  Some 37% of attempts resulted in a birdie last year, so this could be where prospective champions get themselves in front.

And a notoriously tricky Par 4 ends proceedings, with 86% of players getting around the eighteenth in par or worse in 2016.  What an exciting conclusion we may well enjoy on Sunday!

Weather Forecast for Scottsdale, AZ

The forecast is looking rather more wholesome than it has for a while on the PGA TOUR circuit, with sunshine and warm temperatures likely to greet the players on Thursday.

Winds will pick up but not too much – anything from 5 mph to 10 mph gusts are anticipated, with low humidity helping to maximize distance off the tee and through the air.

Last Year’s Results from the Waste Management Phoenix Open

Last year’s renewal degenerated into a fascinating toe-to-toe brawl between Matsuyama and Fowler, whose rounds of 65-70-68-67 perfectly mirrored each other.  It would take four playoff holes to eventually separate them, with Fowler’s bogey at the 17th doing the damage.  Perhaps it was this victory, under such nerve-shredding pressure, that transformed the Japanese star into the phenom he is today.

Others had chances, mind you.  Harris English fired 66 for his final eighteen to get himself into the picture, while Danny Lee was barely out of contention until playing the front nine of his final round in +3.

Grand old timer Boo Weekley’s sandwich-filling of 68-65 ensured that he completed the top five, with JB Holmes, John Huh, Shane Lowry, Bryce Molder, and Will Wilcox making up the rest of the top-10.

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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (CBS).
• Mobile Broadcasts (PGA TOUR LIVE):
  • Thursday-Friday, 9 a.m.-3 p.m. ET (featured groups), 3-7 p.m. (featured holes).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 11:30 a.m.-6 p.m. (featured holes).
• PGA TOUR LIVE ON TWITTER:
  • Thursday-Friday, 9-10:30 a.m. ET.
• RADIO: (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com)
  • Thursday-Friday, 1-7 p.m. ET
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1-6 p.m ET

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open this Week

A long and varied slate has been created for this week’s event at DraftKings, meaning DFS lovers of all budgets have plenty to get involved with:

Here’s one for those counting the pennies and one for the high rollers:

• PGA $325K Birdie: A $3 buy-in offers a shot at the $20,000 top prize here, and with the top 2000 players earning a minimum of $12 – that’s a 400% return on your investment – this is an enticing prospect for DFS managers looking to build their bankroll.

• PGA $60k Scramble: For those with a bit more moolah to work with, how about a punt at the $5,000 top prize in this 3468-team contest?  You’ll only have to stump up $20 to enter, with multi-entry set at three teams for those who like to spread their risk.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Waste Management Phoenix Open 

TPC Scottsdale seems to be the kind of track where players can find themselves in an unexpected run of form.  Take Matsuyama in 2016, for example.  He had missed the cut a week earlier at the Farmers Insurance Open courtesy of a second round of 76, but clearly course history is key here as the youngster – who had finished 4-2 in his prior two visits to the course – took the honors in Arizona.

Back in 2012 it was the scene of redemption for Kyle Stanley, who threw away a six-shot lead at the Farmers – and a three-shot cushion heading into the final hole – in the lead-up to the Phoenix Open, but here he overcame an eight-shot deficit heading into the final 18 to win by one from Ben Crane; the third largest comeback in PGA TOUR history.  Needless to say, this is an event with an occasionally bizarre history.

As a shortish Par 71, it won’t come as any surprise to learn that hitting greens – and lots of them – is key to victory.  Matsuyama landed on 77.78%, and yet his activity off the tee was below par: just 55% of fairways hit, and just 0.835 strokes gained on the field off the peg.

But with some +3.056 shots gained on the rest from tee-to-green, clearly a magical short game is required to get the job done: no wonder Ol’ Lefty is a three-time winner here and holds both the 18 and 72-hole course records.

Matsuyama didn’t putt particularly well – he didn’t need to, such was his close proximity to the hole – and his ability to play the regulation holes well (-9 of his -14 tally was earned on the Par 4s) clearly we are looking for bread-and-butter players with first-class short games this week in our draft.  Form, apparently, is optional!

For any DFS managers looking for the obligatory local angle, Kevin Stadler – a Scottsdale native – lifted this trophy in 2014; his only PGA TOUR triumph.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open 

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open 

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick : 

Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: 11/1, FPPG: 102.6, GPFP: 122.12 Salary: $11,700)

How could we overlook the Asian sensation this week?  A course formline of 1-2-4, for a player who has snapped up three titles worldwide in the past couple of months alone, means that Matsuyama is unmissable this week.

Okay, so a return of T33 from the Farmers last time out is less than eye-catching, but his return of 71-70-71-72 is hardly a disaster in such conditions.  Lest we forget he missed the cut at last year’s Torrey Pines jaunt prior to lifting this trophy a week later, so we don’t have to be fearful.  Plus, two of the other finest players on the planet, Dustin Johnson and Jason Day, missed out on the weekend, so there’s no shame at all in Matsuyama’s finish.

It’s no wonder the 24-year-old has flourished at TPC Scottsdale; his game is tailor-made for this stretch.  He gains so many shots from tee to green with his excellent approach play, and the efficiency of his short game marks him out as something of a short course master; he ranks fifth on tour for Par 4 Scoring.

In such salubrious company, we’re looking to get one of the elite on board at what could be a tough test.  Matsuyama fits the bill.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green – 1st
• GIR Percentage – 6th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 7th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Phil Mickelson (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 83.0, GPFP: 92.13 Salary: $8,400)

It would be sacrilege not to have Ol’ Lefty onside at a course he loves so much.  A three-time winner at TPC Scottsdale, Mickelson has a raft of top-10s to his name here, and if anybody doubted his game in his advancing years then look at what he achieved at The Open last summer; his Links golf remains as strong as anybody’s.

He was superb in finishing T14 at the Farmers last week, and his strengths there – strokes gained on the field from tee-to-green (+1.62) and approach-the-green (+1.23) – in what were challenging conditions sets him up nicely for another tilt at this WM Phoenix Open crown.

Phil spent his college years in Arizona, so let’s hope he can wind the clock back to the good old days this weekend!

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring – 6th
• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green – 10th
• Proximity to Hole – 14th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Brendan Steele (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 92.3, GPFP: 120.03 Salary: $8,200)

This is our third dance around the fountain with Steele in as many weeks, but why wouldn’t we make it a hat-trick given how well he is striking the ball at present.  This TPC Scottsdale track actually suits him more than most, too.

His T20 at Torrey Pines might not look that awe-inspiring, but his numbers where it counts this week – +2.98 strokes gained on the field from tee-to-green, +2.47 in approach play – are exceptional.  The 69 on Sunday in particular will have given him renewed confidence.

The 33-year-old’s return from his last four visits to TPC Scottsdale read 17-26-6-6, so we are expecting him to improve on his T20 last week.  A stalwart of our drafts in recent times, Steele is the gift that keeps on giving.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 16th
• Strokes Gained: Total – 14th
• GIR Percentage – 11th

Mid-Tier Pick #3:

Pat Perez (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 86.7, GPFP: 69.33 Salary: $8,000)

Since having shoulder surgery Pat Perez has been playing like a man possessed – winning the OHL Classic and finishing T3, T4, and T7 at the Tournament of Champions, Farmers Insurance Open and Shriners Hospitals for Children respectively.  This week he returns to his home state of Arizona, and has to be fancied to go well once again.

Perez has had a love-hate relationship with TPC Scottsdale but is currently playing the best golf of his life, so that is excellent preparation, and five top-30 finishes in his last seven visits suggest he is warming up nicely.

The 41-year-old is peppering greens at the moment and shooting low numbers, and perhaps returning home to his native state may just give him the lift he needs to pick up a second title of the campaign.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 11th
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green – 25th
• Greens in Regulation – 36th

Low-Tier Pick:

Kyle Stanley (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 76.8, GPFP: 88.26 Salary: $6,800)

The 29-year-old returns to the scene of his only PGA TOUR win to date, and he does so in fine form after an eye-catching T14 at Torrey Pines.

In truth, Stanley hasn’t really done the business at Scottsdale since his victory, but he’s made the weekend in five of his last six starts in a formline that reads 14-36-21-MC-7-22.

That T7 came at Shriners, which has often been touted as a decent pre-cursor tournament to this one, and Stanley’s seasonal make-up – he ranks inside the world’s top 30 for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, GIR and Proximity so far this term, is outstanding for a low-tier pick.

Key Stats:

• GIR Percentage – 3rd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 11th
• Par 4 Scoring – 18th

Sleeper Pick for the Waste Management Phoenix Open

Scott Piercy (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 75.5, GPFP: 67.20 Salary: $7,900)

Piercy qualifies as a fully-fledged sleeper this week courtesy of his absent form – T41 and T57 are hardly going to set DFS players’ hearts a-fluttering – and so ownership could well be low.

That could well hand you an advantage.  Piercy finished T4 at Mayakoba in November and bagged top-10s at the CIMB Classic and Safeway Open just prior to that, so it’s not as if he is stinking the place out.  Here’s a guy who finished second in a gusty, Links style test at the US Open last summer, and the stats suggest he will come alive this week.

He’s gaining lots of shots off the peg (13th for SG: T2G) and on his approach to the dancefloor (17th for SG: ATG), plus there’s his penchant for shooting low numbers (1st for Total Birdies).

Add into the mix a decent return from Scottsdale (45-MC-15-3-50-8-6-15), and we’re hopeful that Piercy should outperform his sleeper status.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 1st
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 13th
• Strokes Gained: Approach-to-Green – 17th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Waste Management Phoenix Open

Andrew Johnston (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 21.0, GPFP: 16.80 Salary: $7,100)

If you intend on having one or more of the power plays on your roster this week, then you are going to need to balance the books elsewhere.  Perhaps then, this could be the week to get some Beef.

You know the man, the beard, the legend: but do you know his game?  Johnston was raised on English-style Links tracks and as such has become a fantastic GIR merchant; it was this unerring knack for finding greens that has catapulted him to success.

He made the cut at both the ghoulish US Open and the PGA Championship, and bagged the first major top-10 of his career at The Open as well.  In picking up his first title, the European Tour’s Open d’Espana, 2016 was something of a halcyon year for the 27-year-old.

What does 2017 hold for the Beef?

Key Stats (none available for 2017 season):

• Finished T8 at The Open last year
• Made the cut in his two other major appearances
• Gained +1.29 T2G strokes on the field on his sole PGA Tour start this season

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Sample Lineup #1

Sample Lineup #2

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”5.714%” bar_text=”4 out of 70 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”22.85%” bar_text=”16 out of 70 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”38.57%” bar_text=”27 out of 70 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 10 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”10%” bar_text=”1 out of 10 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”67.15″ bar_text=”47 out of 70 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram