Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Shell Houston Open

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2017 Shell Houston Open

The 2017 Shell Houston Open Sleeper Preview

We’re just one week away from The Masters, and the stars are aligning for Dustin Johnson.  He laid waste to the field at the WGC-Dell Match Play last week, and fully deserved to complete a unique WGC grand slam.  For so long the world’s top four players have battled it out for supremacy, and finally one of the elite group has stuck their head above the rest.  DJ will be dreaming of slipping into that Green Jacket come Sunday April 9.

But first we have this intriguing warm-up event, the Shell Houston Open.  Considered an entrée to Augusta’s main course, the Houston Open dates back to 1946 but for the past decade or so has taken on a more prominent position in the PGA TOUR schedule as The Masters’ support act.

Johnson has decided not to take his place in the field at the Golf Course of Houston, and so instead a fine opportunity awaits others in the field.  Jordan Spieth, Texas born and bred, will be looking to build upon his runner’s up finish in this event back in 2015, while Jon Rahm and Rickie Fowler will be looking to continue their fine recent form.

Those like Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose, and Adam Scott are in desperate need of a spark ahead of the year’s first major, while Phil Mickelson – something of a Houston specialist – will hope to enhance his own claims ahead of his annual tilt at the Green Jacket.

Perhaps a new name will be etched on the trophy.  The distraction of The Masters seems to derail the big names in this event, with the last four winners – Jim Herman, J.B Holmes, D.A Points, and Matt Jones – are not exactly at the forefront of the sport.

Herman, who just about bested Stenson and Johnson 12 months ago thanks to a miraculous chip in from the rough, earned his place in The Masters field courtesy of victory, as had Points and Mahan before him.  Maybe this is the week to seek out a shock winner.

To do so, they will have to tame the Golf Course of Houston, a rather to-the-point name for this 7,441 yard, Par 72 track.  Designed by Rees Jones from scratch, the average winning score here in the past five years has been -16, and so if the weather stays fair as predicted another low one will be expected.

This Houston test has been handpicked for its similarities with Augusta, so players can expect wider-than-average fairways and water in-play on more than half of the holes.  The Bermuda greens will run at around 13 on the stimpmeter, so plenty fast enough.

We’ve witnessed bombers win here in the past and more accurate types, so less attention should be paid to tee work here.  Instead, focus on players with a penchant for hitting greens; five of the last six champions have ranked in the top ten for GIR.

Herman gained the bulk of his strokes on the field from tee-to-green and with his putter, while unusually he played the Par 4s in the same score as the Par 5s at -7, so doing the basics well is key.

So who are the key fantasy sleepers to watch this week?  Let’s take a look.

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2017 Shell Houston Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

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Shell Houston Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Tony Finau – Vegas Odds 50/1 – You suspect that opportunities to back Finau at a price of 50/1 or higher will continue to dwindle in the coming months as his ascendancy continues, and if he could just improve his putting a seat at golf’s top table surely beckons.

His last eight starts have yielded a trio of top-ten finishes plus five top-25s in total, while his last outing at Bay Hill – where he finished T28 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational – was soiled by a third round of 77.  He bounced back well with a final round of 71, which shows his growing maturity.

Huge off the tee and excellent at finding greens (72.88% this season), Finau just needs his putter to heat up to win one of these big tournaments.

Patrick Reed – Vegas Odds 60/1 – A lack of form is hampering Patrick Reed at present, but that is helpful for the betting community as his odds are lengthened by the sportsbooks.

Reed is a proud Texan who has showed up well in the past at the Golf Club of Houston, picking up back-to-back top 20s here in 2016 (tenth) and 2015 (seventeenth).

As mentioned, there is no form here so statistically his game isn’t impressive either, but this is the kind of personality that will be aroused by playing well on home turf.  If he does, there is absolutely no reason why he can’t go close.

Charles Howell III – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Given his undoubted ability, CH III simply doesn’t win enough events; that’s a fact.  But a rollcall of recent winners here lacking star quality – plus the confident nature with which Howell spoke at the Dell Match Play suggests that he is ready to get his hands on some silverware.

He progressed from a really tough group at the Match Play that included the in-form Tyrrell Hatton, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, and Jeunghun Wang, and there was no disgrace in losing to a rampant Rahm in the final 16.

His form is incredible: eleven straight cuts made, with eight of those being top-20s.  Like Finau, it is only going to take something to click for Howell for him to become a regular winner on tour, because the quality of his game is exceptional.

Jimmy Walker – Vegas Odds 70/1 – We can only take so much from the WGC Match Play, such is the difference between golf’s two formats, but one lesson that we did learn was just how well Jimmy Walker is striking the ball.

He went down 5&3 against Dustin Johnson but at one point in the match made five consecutive birdies, and anybody that clung on to DJ’s coattails last week can be considered in good form.

The Golf Club of Houston has been reasonably kind to him; he’s made five of the last six weekends here, with T19 and T24 his best figures, and three consecutive top-25s in his last trio of strokeplay starts suggests the last major winner of 2016 is muscling through the gears nicely in time for Augusta.

Nick Watney – Vegas Odds 100/1 – It’s always pleasing when an outstanding talent returns from a career-threatening injury, and the gradual improvement in Nick Watney these past six months suggests there’s plenty of life left in this old dog just yet.

The upward curve in his form has delivered three T14 finishes in his last four starts as he picks and chooses his events wisely, and his closing 65 at the Honda Classic really was a sight to behold.

It’s easy to forget he’s a six-time PGA TOUR winner, and his impressive ball striking of late suggests a seventh is not beyond the realms of possibility.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2017 Houston Open here.

Cover photo via Instagram