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Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Shell Houston Open

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Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 Shell Houston Open

2017 Shell Houston Open Fantasy Preview

The Shell Houston Open takes up a tantalizing slot on the PGA TOUR calendar: just one week from The Masters, this event offers the world’s finest players a final chance to hone their game prior to the trip to Augusta, as well as offering those who are yet to qualify for the first major of the year to gatecrash the party; as Jim Herman, Matt Jones, and D.A Points have done in three of the last four editions by taking the honors.

One player whose game does not require any tweaking at the moment is Dustin Johnson, who became the first man in history to wrap up the WGC career grand slam at the Dell Match Play this past week.  DJ ran through the field, playing seven matches across 112 holes and not trailing once.  It was his third win in as many starts, and clearly he will be gunning for a first Green Jacket in a week’s time.

Over in Puerto Rico we had the traditional side event on Tour, and that man Points once again showed his aptitude for golf in March by taking the trophy with a two-shot victory ahead of as diverse a pairing in second as imaginable: Bryson DeChambeau and the evergreen Retief Goosen.  Two of our tournament picks, Trey Mullinax and Harold Varner III, sat first and second after round one, so the less said about their capitulation the better.

Instead, let’s turn our attention to the Shell Houston Open, which is a well-attended event each year thanks to its brilliant slot in the schedule.  The likes of Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson, and Rickie Fowler will all be hoping to take advantage of DJ’s absence, while Jon Rahm, so courageous in defeat to Johnson in the Match Play, will be looking to go one better in Houston.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Puerto Rico Open

It was a tough task to navigate a field dominated by ‘no-namers’ and our end result was six made cuts of seven picks, losing McDowell at -2 to the cut line.

Varner III, Peterson, and Gomez were our best finishers at T24 and despite his drop to T44, Mullinax put up quite a display on day one.  His 9 under first round put him in a position to finish the week with a whopping 105 fantasy points (23 birdies, 36 pars) which was a solid showing at his price tag ($6,500).  Despite the T44 finish, he was definitely our best pick for the price last week.

Our shinning start from our Tuesday Sleeper Report was Martin Flores.  His T10 finish banked him 117 fantasy points at a price tag of $6,800.

Now back to the big boys of the PGA TOUR!

2017 Shell Houston Open Field

The big four already mentioned will attract most of the attention this week, but there are some other interesting sub-plots in the likes of Phil Mickelson, who has recorded six consecutive top-20 finishes in Houston at 13-17-12-16-4-1.  He will be looking to re-enter the winners’ circle here ahead of another tilt at an Augusta title.

The last two champions here, Jim Herman and JB Holmes, will make the trip, while proud Texan Patrick Reed knows he has plenty to work on ahead of The Masters.

Others – Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Matt Kuchar, Jimmy Walker et al – will be hoping to find form and confidence ahead of next week’s mouth-watering major.

This Week’s Course Preview

For the past decade, the Houston Open has been the traditional precursor to The Masters (apart from 2013), and that is in part due to the Augusta-esque feel of the Golf Course of Houston; this week’s host venue.

Formerly known as Redstone, this course was designed by Rees Jones with instruction from David Toms, and certainly does share characteristics with Augusta.  It is long-ish at 7,441 yards for its Par 72, with minimal rough (aided by wide fairways) and lightning fast Bermuda greens which can run at up to 13 on the stimpmeter.  Water is in play on many holes as this track has been built around the many lakes and wetlands that make up Houston’s suburbs.

Basically, if you can hit it long off the tee, find plenty of greens and putt well you have a chance here.

If only it was that simple!

Weather Forecast for Houston, Texas

The weather is taking a rather hot and sultry turn in Texas this week, and that will manifest itself in mixed conditions this week.

Thursday’s early starters might have nice and soft greens to play on with thunderstorms and heavy rain showers forecast on Wednesday.  Happily, strong winds are forecast which will help to push those storm clouds away.

And so things will start rather pleasantly on Thursday, with cloudy and sunny spells with a top temperature of 77 degrees.  Gusts will almost double through the day from 6 mph at 7am to 11 mph at 3pm.

Friday looks well set with low chance of rain and gusts around that 6-11 mph mark, while Saturday looks picture perfect; ideal for those with moving up the leaderboard in mind.  Winds will have dropped and the sunshine will prevail.

Sunday could be interesting though.  Thunderstorms feature heavily in the early forecast, and it is hard to make any clear observation as to when (and if) these will disrupt play.  We could be in for a wild finish though, that is for sure.

Last Year’s Results from the Shell Houston Open

The Shell Houston Open has had a habit of turning paupers into princes down the years, and that was certainly the case 12 months ago when Jim Herman bagged the biggest payday of his life – and the first PGA TOUR title of his career.

Neck-and-neck with Henrik Stenson down the back nine, Herman’s audacious chip-in from the rough at the sixteenth landed the birdie that would ultimately – with Stenson missing an 18-footer for birdie at the last – seal the deal.  It was just the second triumph in Herman’s pro career after a prior victory on the Web.com circuit.

That pairing had made their move over the weekend, with Herman shooting 67-68 and Stenson 66-68, which must have left Dustin Johnson feeling rather aggrieved.  He opened with a round of 65 and followed it with a 71; but this was before he became the trophy-hunting machine he is today.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUFgBC_KBqQ[/embedyt]

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Shell Houston Open this Week

Only a week to go until The Masters (and the multi-million dollar fantasy golf payday that comes with it), so this is a week to be accumulating a bit of a bankroll, and not spending all of your hard earned cash on a tournament which, in fairness, has a habit of throwing up some surprises.

So this week’s best contests are designed to build a fund ahead of Augusta, rather than deliver a life-changing win.

  • PGA $400K Dogleg: A $50 kitty will be very nice heading to Augusta, and that is the bare minimum prize you can expect to scoop here if you finish inside the first 30% of entries.  Add in a top prize of $50k and you get plenty of value for your $33 entry fee.
  • PGA $60K Eagle: A top prize of $3k takes the headlines, but an opportunity to build a healthy bankroll ahead of The Masters in this three entry max contest is more appealing.  You will double your $5 stake, at least, for finishing in the first 1850 home of 14,000 entries.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Shell Houston Open

There’s no secret to success at the Houston Open: you’ve got to hit plenty of greens and putt well.  Herman and Stenson ranked tenth and sixth for Greens in Regulation respectively 12 months ago, and realistically anything below 70% here isn’t going to get the job done.

They both ranked top 20 for Putting Average too (fourth and seventeenth), which confirms the theory.

What is less unclear is the importance of driving distance or accuracy.  JB Holmes won here in 2015 – not one shy of giving it a rip off the tee box, and yet Herman, with his 291 yard average, is certainly on the shorter side of the modern game.  Of the five longest hitters here 12 months ago only two would finish inside the top 20 of the leaderboard, while three of the first five in the accuracy metric recorded top-20 returns.  Perhaps Total Driving is our best friend this week.

Unusually, Herman gained as many shots on the Par 4s as he did on the Par 5s (-7), so being able to play the standard lengths well is crucial.

As far as course correlations go, plenty of players have enjoyed success here and at the Phoenix Open, hosted by TPC Scottsdale.  They look fairly similar and play the same (wide fairways, quicker Bermuda greens, water in play) and the two events share a trio of joint winners: Phil Mickelson, JB Holmes, and Hunter Mahan.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Shell Houston Open

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

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[counter num_start=”0″ num_end=”13030575″ num_speed=”5000″ num_prefix=”$” text_above=”Season Earnings” text_below=”$779,476 average”]
[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.14%” bar_text=”9 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”19.84%” bar_text=”25 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”37.30%” bar_text=”47 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”22.22%” bar_text=”4 out of 18 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”5.56%” bar_text=”1 out of 18 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”70.63″ bar_text=”89 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2017 Shell Houston Open with other Premium Members.


Cover Photo via Instagram

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