Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Puerto Rico Open

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the Puerto Rico Open

The 2017 Puerto Rico Open Sleeper Preview

The PGA TOUR splits into two this week with the main headlines grabbed by the WGC-Dell Match Play event, but for DFS fantasy gamers the only option this week appears to be the overflow tournament; the Puerto Rico Open.

Four of the last five winners of this event have gone off at Vegas odds of 80/1, and so clearly there are fantastic opportunities available in a field that contains Peter Uihlein and Matt Jones at 25/1 and 30/1.  No disrespect to those two, but clearly those prices are at least 100 points short of what they would be in a full field meeting.

As if to highlight the point, the reigning champion is Tony Finau, who 12 months ago was a rookie still making his way in the game.  He beat Steve Marino in a playoff; a man who recorded just three top-25s in 23 starts last season, and who has missed six of his last eight cuts this.  Like we say, this tournament is laden with opportunities for punters.

It really is a strange old tournament.  Tony Finau had missed four consecutive cuts prior to his win, a run only halted by a T43 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational a week prior.  Finau found his feet in Puerto Rico, and the generous conditions enabled him to ping plenty of fairways and greens.  He was one of the classiest players in the field 12 months ago and he made it count to land his maiden PGA TOUR title.

The main reason for Finau’s success is that the Coco Beach Golf & Country Club, in Rio Grande, is a large and expansive track that is easy to attack.  Winning scores in the past five years have ranged from -12 to -21 (we’ll ignore the -7 mark set by Alex Cejka; the 2015 renewal was blighted by heavy winds), and that gives an indicator that this really is a birdie-fest shootout.

The Par 72 stretch, which measures 7,506 yards, features wider-than-average fairways and easy to hit greens – Finau landed 72% of greens and 71% of fairways – so clearly keeping the ball in play is crucial; an easier task than normal.  Finau ranked 18th for Total Driving and played the Par 3s in evens, the Par 4s in -5 and the Par 5s in -7.  The forgiving fairways really allow players to attack the Par 4s with gusto.

It’s not even a difficult course to putt on.  Okay, so the Sea-Dwarf Paspalum greens provide a different test to normal, but many in the game have said how similar this surface is to Bermuda, so there’s nothing really to be read into that.  These are slow too, running at around 10.5 on the stimp.

The conditions in Puerto Rico are fairly American in nature, with strong winds a factor, and perhaps the best comparison we can offer is the OHL Classic at El Camaleon in Mexico.  This is a breezy coastal test that features Paspalum grass and slower-than-average greens, so can be used as some kind of guide.

Picking your way through the field is laden with euphemistic landmines, but the rewards are clear for all to see.  So who are the sleepers to watch this week?  Let’s take a look.

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The Puerto Rico Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Puerto Rico Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Brandon Hagy – Vegas Odds 50/1 – He might be a young whippersnapper – Hagy turned 26 on Tuesday – but he already has a top-20 at Coco Beach to his name in his sole visit; T16 in 2015.  That was a nice sighter for a player that has come on leaps and bounds this term, making seven out of ten cuts with a trio of impressive showings to his name in his last three starts: T33 at Pebble Beach, T21 at the Honda Classic, and T28 last week at Bay Hill.  Those were all in good company, so in a thinner field here….who knows?  He ranks 4th for Driving Distance, 30th for SG: Off-the-Tee and 54th for Par 5: Birdie or Better Leaders.

Seamus Power – Vegas Odds 66/1 – You get the feeling that one or two Web.com Tour graduates are likely to go close this weekend, and perhaps this talented young Irishman could be one to get into the mix.  He’s been consistently good this season (eight cuts made of eleven) without making a real breakthrough, but eye-catching enough was his T28 at the OHL Classic, at which he fired three rounds in the 60s.  He’s a hell of a putter – ranking 38th on tour for Total Putting, and plays the Par 5s superbly well (16th for Par 5: Birdie or Better Leaders).

Tyrone van Aswegen – Vegas Odds 80/1 – The South African has gone three-for-three in Puerto Rico, which is a handy advantage on most in the field, and he has shown glimpses of excellence this season: T7 in a birdie fest on the Paspalum of Malaysia in the CIMB Classic, plus that brilliant 69-65 start last time out at the Valspar Championship.  He played the Par 5s in a very impressive -8 at the Honda Classic, and while nothing in his stats really excites he does rank 37th for Par 5 Scoring Average.  It’s a leap of faith backing van Aswegen to win in Puerto Rico, but a top-five return is not out of the question.

Martin Flores – Vegas Odds 100/1 – Back-to-back top-20s in Puerto Rico in 2014 and 2015 (T19 and T16) identified the Texan as one to watch this week, and he is a player that is capable of good things on his day: T24 at the OHL Classic, T28 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and T14 at Pebble Beach in the past few months alone are testament to that.  A noted wind player, Flores ranks 12th on tour for GIR and 43rd for Total Putting, which seems a handy combination on this Puerto Rican track.

Greg Owen – Vegas Odds 150/1 – The Englishman is three-for-three at Coco Beach, and while his form on Tour is never particularly strong these days he does occasionally come up with big performances: T2 at the Sanderson Farms and T17 at the CareerBuilder Challenge evidence of that.  He ranks 12th on Tour for Total Driving, and that should offer him an excellent platform here, and so far this term has hit 72.88% of greens.  If he can get the ball close enough to the pin this week then his woeful putting won’t be such a problem!

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2017 Puerto Rico Open here.

Cover photo via Instagram