Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Puerto Rico Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 Puerto Rico Open

2017 Puerto Rico Open Fantasy Preview

For the best players in the game, golf comes easily.  Watch a Rory McIlroy or a Dustin Johnson in full flight and you’ll see a player whose natural ability and hard work is paying dividends.

For others arguably less talented, other factors come into play.  A huge slice of luck is always welcomed, and that is exactly what Marc Leishman experienced when his errant drive on the back nine at Bay Hill on Sunday smashed into a tree and somehow ricocheted into the middle of the fairway.

The Aussie had been gamely chasing the leading pair, Kevin Kisner and Charley Hoffman, down the back straight of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and as they faltered Leishman seemed to gain strength; aided by good fortune, of course.

But he showed plenty of skill as well – not least a 51ft putt for Eagle at the sixteenth – before showing plenty of bottle in going up-and-down on the final two holes to prevail by a solitary stroke.  It was the second PGA TOUR title of Leishman’s career and his first since 2012; long overdue for a talented player with 27 top-ten finishes to his name.

This is one of those fateful weeks on the PGA TOUR where we have two events to enjoy: the WGC-Dell Match Play and the Puerto Rico Open. With the daily fantasy sites not able to offer match play contests, we will be focusing on the PR Open instead.

Okay, so it’s the overflow tournament packed with players who didn’t meet the qualification criteria for the WGC event, but even so it still offers a land of opportunity for well-informed DFS gamers.  Those who do their research here will have an obvious advantage over the casual player.

Unfortunately, this is the week in the calendar where the PGA TOUR stats team tend to go on vacation, as no deep stats are recorded for this event, or the Match Play for that matter.  But what we do know is that the host venue, the Coco Beach Golf & Country Club in Rio Grande, is a rather large course and Puerto Rico typically windy at this kind of year.  That sets the scene nicely for the week ahead.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Our top tier pick last week was Rory and he certainly did not disappoint fantasy owners.  Despite his bogey on the 72nd hole to fall out of contention, McIlroy put up some serious numbers en route to his total of 124 fantasy points.

With 1 eagle, 21 birdies, and 38 pars, McIlroy certainly did his fair share and if you coupled him with a Leishman and Kisner then you probably cashed in big time.  We cannot take credit for Leishman and Kisner,  but both of our Top 2 picks (McIlroy and Molinari) finished in the Top 7.

Francesco Molinari was indeed a solid pickup at $8,600 and looks like a contender for The Masters at $6,800 for the big $3.5 Million Dollar DraftKings Game next week.  The Italian Stallion kept his bogeys low and carded nothing worse all week.

With the glory comes the defeat, course.  We only managed to make the cut with 4 of our 7 main picks and G-Mac and Charl, although off too a hot start, failed to keep up with the pack.

The good news is that all six players from our Tuesday Sleeper report made the cut and Tommy Fleetwood notched a T10 in the process.

The Puerto Rico Open Field

Given the nature of the tournament it’s not a surprise to see a, erm, eclectic field gathering in Puerto Rico.  Heading the bookmakers’ list is a diverse trio: resurgent Graeme McDowell, up-and-coming star Wes Bryan, and still-a-maiden Graeme DeLaet.  The pressure that the Canadian must feel coming here – this is his best chance to break his tour duck – must be all-consuming.

There will be plenty in the field who fancy their chances of grabbing a morale-boosting – and bank balance inflating – win this week.  Guys like Luke List, Chris Kirk, David Hearn, and Scott Brown all have the game to do just that if they play their best, while talented youngsters like J.J Spaun, J.T Poston, Dominic Bozzelli, and Seamus Power might just fancy their chances of banking their first champion’s paycheck.

It’s not the deepest field you’ll ever see, but this event provided a fantastic platform for reigning champ Tony Finau to kick on from in 2016, so there will be no shortage of motivation.

This Week’s Course Preview

Coco Beach offers a unique challenge to the players, but with winning scores ranging from Finau’s -12 a year ago to Chesson Hadley’s -21 in 2014 it is clear that this 7,506 yard Par 72 stretch can be tamed.

The reasons for that are obvious.  Expansive landing areas off the tee, and larger than the norm greens, enable even wayward players to stay in the short stuff, and as we’ll see later from Finau’s stats 12 months ago doing that is essential here.

The greens, which are made up of the SeaDwarf Paspalum grass usually found in exotic climes (think the OHL Classic at El Camaleon and the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpar), run at only around 10.5 on the stimp, and with rain forecast all week these are likely to even slower than normal.

So basically we’re looking at a birdie-fest shootout.  Keep your ball on the fairway, hit greens (as close to the pin as possible) and you should shoot low enough to contend.

It’s a simple game when you think about it!

Weather Forecast for Rio Grande, PUR

Waterproof clothing will be very much in play this week.  Rain is forecast every day from Wednesday until Sunday, with Friday and Saturday the worst off with precipitation levels set at a rather comprehensive 90%.

Happily, this won’t be the windiest of PR Open renewals according to the early forecast, and that’s a relief after gales essentially ruined the 2015 edition of the event.  The breeze will run from 9mph to 11mph, with the general pattern being that these gusts will increase throughout the day; giving the early starters a chance to make hay.

Last Year’s Results from the Puerto Rico Open

The efforts of Tony Finau and Steve Marino perfectly mirrored each other 12 months ago; the pair firing a configuration of 69-70-67-70 – confirming our suspicion that all four rounds will need to be below par for the winner to triumph here.

That sent them into a playoff, and Finau displayed maturity beyond his years to birdie all three of the extra holes; Marino finally relenting at the third attempt with a par on the 18th.  It was Finau’s maiden PGA TOUR win.

The leader at the halfway stage was local favorite Rafael Campos, who had backed up his opening 64 with a 71 on Friday.  The Puerto Rican would eventually slip to T8 after playing his final 36 holes in level par.

Leading into the final round was Ian Poulter, the Englishman who had agonizingly missed out on a place in the WGC-Dell Match Play.  His closing effort of 72 saw him surpassed by Finau and Marino at the summit of the leaderboard.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Puerto Rico Open this Week

It’s rather frustrating that DraftKings haven’t given much love to the Puerto Rico Open this week, instead channelling their marketing efforts on The Masters that takes place in just a few weeks.

That said, they have still come up with an eclectic roster of contests this week that offers something for players of all budgets.

• PGA $150K Club Pro: This is an interesting proposition for high rollers.  A substantial buy-in of $333 lets you duke it out in this 500-team contest for the top prize of $25,000, with the top 122 finishers bagging a minimum of $500.

• PGA $20K Albatross: If you are looking to build a steady bankroll ahead of The Masters then this single entry contest will help level the playing field against those with a larger budget blanketing the multi-entry events.  A $12 buy-in could earn the top prize of $2,500 for beating the rest of the field.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Puerto Rico Open

As mentioned earlier, this is the week where the PGA TOUR stats team tends to go on hiatus, so identifying deep stats and trends is rather tricky.

But we do have some basic numbers to work with on the back of Finau’s triumph here last year.  He hit 71% of fairways and 72% of greens, which are excellent numbers on any given week.  With wet conditions expected, giving it a thump off the tee won’t hurt and it was no surprise to see the reigning champ rank 18th for Total Driving in his winning effort.

Coco Beach is a Par 72 and so there are four Par 5s to work with, and even allowing for a lack of roll on the fairways these appear to be surmountable holes; Finau played them in -7 of his -12 last time out.

So this week’s fantasy notes are rather sweet and simple: we need good drivers offering length and accuracy, decent GIR numbers – and Proximity to Hole is a bonus on the slow greens – and somebody who can putt their way to victory because, let’s face it, you don’t win any tournament unless you go well with the short stick.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Puerto Rico Open

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

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