Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Puerto Rico Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 Puerto Rico Open

2017 Puerto Rico Open Fantasy Preview

For the best players in the game, golf comes easily.  Watch a Rory McIlroy or a Dustin Johnson in full flight and you’ll see a player whose natural ability and hard work is paying dividends.

For others arguably less talented, other factors come into play.  A huge slice of luck is always welcomed, and that is exactly what Marc Leishman experienced when his errant drive on the back nine at Bay Hill on Sunday smashed into a tree and somehow ricocheted into the middle of the fairway.

The Aussie had been gamely chasing the leading pair, Kevin Kisner and Charley Hoffman, down the back straight of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and as they faltered Leishman seemed to gain strength; aided by good fortune, of course.

But he showed plenty of skill as well – not least a 51ft putt for Eagle at the sixteenth – before showing plenty of bottle in going up-and-down on the final two holes to prevail by a solitary stroke.  It was the second PGA TOUR title of Leishman’s career and his first since 2012; long overdue for a talented player with 27 top-ten finishes to his name.

This is one of those fateful weeks on the PGA TOUR where we have two events to enjoy: the WGC-Dell Match Play and the Puerto Rico Open. With the daily fantasy sites not able to offer match play contests, we will be focusing on the PR Open instead.

Okay, so it’s the overflow tournament packed with players who didn’t meet the qualification criteria for the WGC event, but even so it still offers a land of opportunity for well-informed DFS gamers.  Those who do their research here will have an obvious advantage over the casual player.

Unfortunately, this is the week in the calendar where the PGA TOUR stats team tend to go on vacation, as no deep stats are recorded for this event, or the Match Play for that matter.  But what we do know is that the host venue, the Coco Beach Golf & Country Club in Rio Grande, is a rather large course and Puerto Rico typically windy at this kind of year.  That sets the scene nicely for the week ahead.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Our top tier pick last week was Rory and he certainly did not disappoint fantasy owners.  Despite his bogey on the 72nd hole to fall out of contention, McIlroy put up some serious numbers en route to his total of 124 fantasy points.

With 1 eagle, 21 birdies, and 38 pars, McIlroy certainly did his fair share and if you coupled him with a Leishman and Kisner then you probably cashed in big time.  We cannot take credit for Leishman and Kisner,  but both of our Top 2 picks (McIlroy and Molinari) finished in the Top 7.

 

Francesco Molinari was indeed a solid pickup at $8,600 and looks like a contender for The Masters at $6,800 for the big $3.5 Million Dollar DraftKings Game next week.  The Italian Stallion kept his bogeys low and carded nothing worse all week.

With the glory comes the defeat, course.  We only managed to make the cut with 4 of our 7 main picks and G-Mac and Charl, although off too a hot start, failed to keep up with the pack.

The good news is that all six players from our Tuesday Sleeper report made the cut and Tommy Fleetwood notched a T10 in the process.

The Puerto Rico Open Field

Given the nature of the tournament it’s not a surprise to see a, erm, eclectic field gathering in Puerto Rico.  Heading the bookmakers’ list is a diverse trio: resurgent Graeme McDowell, up-and-coming star Wes Bryan, and still-a-maiden Graeme DeLaet.  The pressure that the Canadian must feel coming here – this is his best chance to break his tour duck – must be all-consuming.

There will be plenty in the field who fancy their chances of grabbing a morale-boosting – and bank balance inflating – win this week.  Guys like Luke List, Chris Kirk, David Hearn, and Scott Brown all have the game to do just that if they play their best, while talented youngsters like J.J Spaun, J.T Poston, Dominic Bozzelli, and Seamus Power might just fancy their chances of banking their first champion’s paycheck.

It’s not the deepest field you’ll ever see, but this event provided a fantastic platform for reigning champ Tony Finau to kick on from in 2016, so there will be no shortage of motivation.

This Week’s Course Preview

Coco Beach offers a unique challenge to the players, but with winning scores ranging from Finau’s -12 a year ago to Chesson Hadley’s -21 in 2014 it is clear that this 7,506 yard Par 72 stretch can be tamed.

The reasons for that are obvious.  Expansive landing areas off the tee, and larger than the norm greens, enable even wayward players to stay in the short stuff, and as we’ll see later from Finau’s stats 12 months ago doing that is essential here.

The greens, which are made up of the SeaDwarf Paspalum grass usually found in exotic climes (think the OHL Classic at El Camaleon and the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpar), run at only around 10.5 on the stimp, and with rain forecast all week these are likely to even slower than normal.

So basically we’re looking at a birdie-fest shootout.  Keep your ball on the fairway, hit greens (as close to the pin as possible) and you should shoot low enough to contend.

It’s a simple game when you think about it!

Weather Forecast for Rio Grande, PUR

Waterproof clothing will be very much in play this week.  Rain is forecast every day from Wednesday until Sunday, with Friday and Saturday the worst off with precipitation levels set at a rather comprehensive 90%.

Happily, this won’t be the windiest of PR Open renewals according to the early forecast, and that’s a relief after gales essentially ruined the 2015 edition of the event.  The breeze will run from 9mph to 11mph, with the general pattern being that these gusts will increase throughout the day; giving the early starters a chance to make hay.

Last Year’s Results from the Puerto Rico Open

The efforts of Tony Finau and Steve Marino perfectly mirrored each other 12 months ago; the pair firing a configuration of 69-70-67-70 – confirming our suspicion that all four rounds will need to be below par for the winner to triumph here.

That sent them into a playoff, and Finau displayed maturity beyond his years to birdie all three of the extra holes; Marino finally relenting at the third attempt with a par on the 18th.  It was Finau’s maiden PGA TOUR win.

The leader at the halfway stage was local favorite Rafael Campos, who had backed up his opening 64 with a 71 on Friday.  The Puerto Rican would eventually slip to T8 after playing his final 36 holes in level par.

Leading into the final round was Ian Poulter, the Englishman who had agonizingly missed out on a place in the WGC-Dell Match Play.  His closing effort of 72 saw him surpassed by Finau and Marino at the summit of the leaderboard.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Puerto Rico Open this Week

It’s rather frustrating that DraftKings haven’t given much love to the Puerto Rico Open this week, instead channelling their marketing efforts on The Masters that takes place in just a few weeks.

That said, they have still come up with an eclectic roster of contests this week that offers something for players of all budgets.

• PGA $150K Club Pro: This is an interesting proposition for high rollers.  A substantial buy-in of $333 lets you duke it out in this 500-team contest for the top prize of $25,000, with the top 122 finishers bagging a minimum of $500.

• PGA $20K Albatross: If you are looking to build a steady bankroll ahead of The Masters then this single entry contest will help level the playing field against those with a larger budget blanketing the multi-entry events.  A $12 buy-in could earn the top prize of $2,500 for beating the rest of the field.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Puerto Rico Open

As mentioned earlier, this is the week where the PGA TOUR stats team tends to go on hiatus, so identifying deep stats and trends is rather tricky.

But we do have some basic numbers to work with on the back of Finau’s triumph here last year.  He hit 71% of fairways and 72% of greens, which are excellent numbers on any given week.  With wet conditions expected, giving it a thump off the tee won’t hurt and it was no surprise to see the reigning champ rank 18th for Total Driving in his winning effort.

Coco Beach is a Par 72 and so there are four Par 5s to work with, and even allowing for a lack of roll on the fairways these appear to be surmountable holes; Finau played them in -7 of his -12 last time out.

So this week’s fantasy notes are rather sweet and simple: we need good drivers offering length and accuracy, decent GIR numbers – and Proximity to Hole is a bonus on the slow greens – and somebody who can putt their way to victory because, let’s face it, you don’t win any tournament unless you go well with the short stick.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Puerto Rico Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Puerto Rico Open

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick : 

Graeme McDowell (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 71.1, GPFP: 66.11 Salary: $10,300)

Our top tier pick this week is GMac, which we admit is a bold selection given his lack of appearances in this event.  But we really do think the Irishman’s game is well suited to Coco Beach.

He grew up playing Links golf in Ireland, so the wind and rain in Puerto Rico won’t prove off-putting, and all-around you get the sense that McDowell’s game is in the ascendancy at present.  He’s posted a trio of top-30 finishes in more esteemed company than this, including T14 at both the Honda Classic and Valspar Championship plus T28 last time out at Bay Hill, where his 72-71-71-73 in fairly tough conditions was a decent knock.  With better scoring opportunities in Puerto Rico, he will be licking his lips.

A former winner of the OHL Classic in 2015, GMac has done the business on Paspalum in the past and is playing well enough to take advantage once again this week.  With maidens offering the greatest threat, the three-time PGA TOUR winner has a clear and distinct advantage this week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 24th
• SG: Putting – 43rd
• SG: Total – 48th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Luke List (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 58.6,  GPFP: 76.13 Salary: $9,900)

We’ve gone for another top-tier pick in Luke List, and while his Vegas odds might be too short for punters to take seriously his birdie prowess is a must for daily fantasy enthusiasts this week.

He’s made the cut in 10 of 13 starts this season and recorded top-25s in six of those, with the obvious highlights being his T2 at the Sanderson Farms (which proves he can go close at the business end) and T7 at the OHL Classic.

List went cold at the turn of the year but has found good form again since, with a T17 at the Arnold Palmer last week an indicator that he is striking the ball nicely again.  A T15 here 12 months ago is a handy precursor for a player who will surely go close come Sunday.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Scoring Average – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 20th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 23rd

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Harold Varner III (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 52.5, GPFP: 59.33 Salary: $7,300)

HVIII has already entered the winner’s circle this season after triumphing in the Australian PGA Championship in December, and that is just reward for a young player who has worked hard on his game in the past year.

His results on the main PGA TOUR this term aren’t all that impressive – you have to go back to October for his best return of T15 at the Safeway Open – but he played nicely enough at Bay Hill last time out in a T34 return rather hampered by a closing round of 77.

In tough conditions at the Arnold Palmer, Varner hit 68% of fairways and 66% of greens, playing the Par 5s in -6, and those numbers will stand him in excellent stead this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 26th
• Total Driving – 32nd
• Total Birdies – 65th

Low-Tier Pick #1:

John Peterson (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 46.1, GPFP: 36.88 Salary: $7,200)

It’s generally boom or bust for Peterson, who tends to do very nicely (T15 at the OHL Classic, T12 at the Phoenix Open) or very badly (four missed cuts in seven starts).

But his showing in Mexico, where he shot 71-69-64-68 was what we hope to be a handy identifier of his excellence in these conditions, and while he’s only made two top-10s in 75 main tour starts, he has recorded a trio of second-place finishes on the Web.com Tour.

Not the longest off the tee but still ranking a respectable 47th for Total Driving, the Texan peppers the greens (ranking 14th for GIR) and boasts a season-long stroke average of 3.98 on the Par 4s, so he should be able to fashion plenty of birdie-making opportunities in Puerto Rico.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 14th
• Proximity to Hole – 14th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 27th

Low-Tier Pick #2:

Trey Mullinax (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 58.3, GPFP: 73.98 Salary: $6,500)

We were surprised to see Mullinax available at such a charitable price this week; his game looks tailor-made for Coco Beach.

In easier conditions his penchant for a bogey or two will hopefully be lessened, and that will enable the young star to make the most of his prodigious scoring: he ranks 41st for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders and 33rd for Par 5.

He birdies one in every four holes on average, and so if he can cut out the bogeys there’s no reason Mullinax cannot mix it with the best in Puerto Rico.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 33rd
• Putting Average – 35th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 41st

Sleeper Pick for the Puerto Rico Open

Danny Lee (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 41.8, GPFP: 40.94 Salary: $8,700)

He’s an expensive sleeper, granted, but Lee might fly under the radar this week (thus: “sleeper”) having not made the trip to Puerto Rico since 2014 (when he finished 2nd, incidentally).

Also, there was a bout of bad form as well earlier in 2017 where he missed five consecutive cuts, so you’d imagine that not all DFS drafters will be favoring the Kiwi this week.

And that’s a shame, because here is a guy who recorded a T17 at Bay Hill last week – and, crucially, his final round of 67 was the Sunday best, nobody matched it.

Imagine the confidence Lee will have this week; that alone could be enough to get him close.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving: 25th
• One Putt Percentage: 45th
• Birdie Average: 67th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Puerto Rico Open

Fabian Gomez (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 44.4, GPFP: 39.48 Salary: $7,400)

Fabian notched a second here in 2013, if Gomez can find his game this week then he could make a mockery of his lowly status in daily fantasy games.

The Argentine made his first cut in five attempts at Bay Hill last week, and that should hopefully salvage some confidence from a poor campaign by his standards.  But remember, Steve Marino appeared from nowhere to make a playoff 12 months ago, and Gomez could be that surprise package this week.

He won the windy Sony Open in 2015 of course, and in total has claimed two PGA TOUR titles and one on the Web.com Tour; and proven champions are thin on the ground in this field. If the wind gets up, the Argentinean ace will be in his element.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Scoring Average – 65th
• Approaches from 225-250yds – 87th
• Driving Accuracy – 92nd

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

Sample Lineup: 

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.56%” bar_text=”9 out of 119 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.00%” bar_text=”25 out of 119 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”36.97%” bar_text=”44 out of 119 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”23.53%” bar_text=”4 out of 17 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”5.88%” bar_text=”1 out of 17 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”69.74″ bar_text=”83 out of 119 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2017 Puerto Rico Open Match Play with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram