Fantasy Golf Predictions – 2013 Byron Nelson Championship

Fantasy Golf Predictions for the 2013 Byron Nelson Championship May 16-19, 2013

Its only been a few days since Tiger reemerged at the PLAYERS Championship, where he held back some notable players to cap off an exciting Mother’s Day finish at TPC Sawgrass.  The TOUR moves to Texas this week for the 22^nd Tournament of the year as the reigning champion Jason Dufner looks to reclaim his title.

Our recent picks: We correctly picked Tiger to win the PLAYERS and Horschel to take the Zurich.  That gives two out of the last three with a Solo 3^rd from Mickelson in between (Wells Fargo Championship).  Needless to say, we’re on a bit of a roll.

The Course: TPC Four Seasons Resort measures 7,166 yards and plays as a par 70. The course was originally designed by Jay Morrish in 1983, but received a recent facelift in 2007 by D.A. Weibring and Steve Wolfard. The new layout has large, rolling/undulating greens. The key to success on these greens is to play the slopes and try and work a line close to the pin for easy two-putt.  We’ve included a few solid putters included in our picks this week to account for these particular challenges.  For aesthetics keep an eye out for the 18th hole which features a unique “water cascade” that extends from the landing area to the green.

Photo by TPC Four Seasons

The Weather in Dallas, TX (from Weather.com):

• Round 1: Thursday (May 16) 83 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated T-Storms.
• Round 2: Friday (May 17) 88 degrees, 20% chance of rain, AM Clouds/PM Sun.
• Round 3: Saturday (May 18) 90 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 4: Sunday (May 19) 88 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly sunny.

2012 Results: Only three weeks after grabbing his first PGA TOUR win; Jason Dufner notched his second with a 25-foot birdie putt on the final hole of regulation to card a 67 that left him one shot clear of Dicky Pride. The club waggling Dufner, fought off Pride, whose only PGA TOUR win came in 1994.  With a birdie at No. 17 and a 22-foot par save at No. 18, Pride could only hope for a playoff. Dufner, drilled his pressure-filled putt and raised his second trophy of the year which eventually earned him his first Ryder Cup nod.

2013 Notes: With a 4^th place finish in the FedExCup standings last year, Dufner has yet to find the same groove that he had in 2013. His best finish was 12th at Trump Doral and he continues to miss cuts this year.  The increasingly popular “Dufnering” photo from an elementary classroom visit is becoming a bit of an omen for his play as of late.

Don’t overlook the “no-namers” this week…Jimmy Walker and March Leishman are playing phenomenal golf.  The Vegas odds on these guys have been increasing over the last few weeks so keep an eye out on their scores this week.  Lastly, don’t beat up on Matt Kuchar just yet…we think he’ll bounce back with authority.

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win:

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds: 12/1): Day has been quiet all year but made a little bit of noise at the WGC Match Play earlier this year. The 2010 HP Byron champ chased his breakthrough here with a solo fifth (2011) and a T9 (2012).  These numbers aren’t too bad…in fact, he seems to know this course very well. Day closed out a T19 at last week’s PLAYERS with a 4-under 68 and has quietly added fourteen consecutive cuts made and four top 10s this season.
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds: 15/1): The way he’s been playing Jimmy is in prime position to win a tournament very soon, so watch out. He closed out a T15 at THE PLAYERS with a field-low 67. Beyond that, Walker has eight top 25s this season and ranks 33rd in greens hit with 17th in strokes gained-putting. With Billy Horschel’s missed cut last week, Walker now leads the TOUR with 22 consecutive cuts made.
• Marc Leishman (Golficity Odds: 15/1): With a T4 at the Masters, a T9 at Harbour Town and a T8 at TPC Sawgrass, it’s safe to say that Marc’s momentum is on the way up. If  nothing else, three straight T10s has to give you some recognition. Leishman plays well here with a T8 (2009), T12 (2010) and T3 (2012) in his career at TPC Four Seasons.
• Jason Dufner (Golficity Odds: 22/1): The defending champ also finished T8 here in 2011 but hasn’t had much spark this season.  Duf is still chasing his first top 10 on the PGA TOUR this year and fell apart last week at THE PLAYERS finishing T62 with a final-round 80. Defending champs often get charged up for repeats though and Dufner is overdue for a good showing so we’re putting him in our top 5 this week.
• D.A. Points (Golficity Odds: 30/1): D.A. has made six consecutive cuts dating back to his win in Houston. Points followed his win with a strong 2^nd place finish in New Orleans at the Zurich. In total, D.A. now has top 20s in three of his last four appearances at TPC Four Seasons, including a solo third in 2009 and a T7 in 2010.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds: 50/1): Although struggling of late, we still feel that Kuchar will breakout this season.  He tied for 48th at TPC Sawgrass last week, falling well short of reclaiming his title; but he’s survived 14 straight cuts which is impressive given the strength of the field this year.  It’s also worth noting that four of his made cuts were top 10s. Kuchar is 5-for-5 at this event (cuts made), including a T6 (2011) and T15 (2012).
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds: 50/1): Palmer comes off a T5 at THE PLAYERS during which he suffered the tragic loss of a long-time friend. The hometown boy lost in a playoff at TPC Four Seasons in 2011 and placed T9 last year after holding the 18-hole lead. He’s proven to stay hot over multiple starts so be on the lookout for Palmer to make a run this week.

Last Week’s Predictions Results (The 2013 PLAYERS Championship)

• Tiger Woods (Golficity Odds 6/1):  WINNER
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 12/1): MC
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 12/1):  T19
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 20/1): MC
• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 29/1):  T8

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 45/1): MC
• Billy Horschel (Golficity Odds 50/1): MC

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(Cover Photo Credit)