Fantasy Golf Predictions – The Players Championship 2013

Fantasy Golf Predictions for The Players Championship 2013, May 9th – 12th

The Course:  TPC Sawgrass (Stadium) measures 7,215 yards and plays as a par 72. The once 415 acres of wooded wetlands was originally purchased for just one dollar and went on to be beautifully designed by architect Pete Dye.  The course was created as a layout designed to challenge all parts of a player’s game – leading to countless episodes of frustration and demise through the years. An interesting note about this course is that no two consecutive holes on the Stadium Course play in the same direction.  Doglegs were created in both directions and the track exhibits holes on both ends of the relative distance spectrum (i.e. the short 481 yard par 4 14^th and the lengthy 237 yard par 3 8^th). The infamous (yet shortest) 17^th hole plays as a 137-yard par 3 over water to a green reachable only by narrow walkable path from behind the green, and usually serves to makes or break a player’s round…especially on Saturday or Sunday.

TPC Sawgrass Famous 17th Hole. Photo by TPC.com

The Weather at TPC Sawgrass (from weather.com):

• Round 1: Thursday (May 9) 83 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 2: Friday (May 10) 84 degrees, 20% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 3: Saturday (May 11) 85 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 4: Sunday  (May 12) 77 degrees, 30% chance of rain, scattered T-Storms.

2012 Results:  Last year, Matt Kuchar (who already has a win on TOUR this year) won on the biggest stage of his career.  He fought off Kevin Na to finish with a two-shot victory and it was easily the biggest of his win of his phenomenal career. Kuchar carded a 2-under-par 70, but had significant pressure from big time notables like Luke Donald, Martin Laird, Zach Johnson, Ben Curtis and Rickie Fowler. A three-putt bogey at No. 17 opened the door for Fowler, who birdied the 17th and struck his approach to 4.5 feet at No. 18. But the always colorful Fowler missed his birdie putt which allowed Kuchar to grab his fourth PGA TOUR victory with a two-putt closing par.  Kuchar went on to play in the 2012 Ryder Cup capping off an impressive 2012 season.

Notes:  Tiger Woods is back in action after his “almost” come from behind attempt at Augusta as he fought back after being assessed a 2 stroke penalty for an improper drop following a water hazard penalty.  Tiger has three wins in 2013, but has struggled to perform well at TPC Sawgrass with any sort of consistency. Woods has only one top-10 finish since his single PLAYERS victory in 2001, with an injury forcing him to withdraw twice in the past three editions.  But this is a new Tiger, a Tiger that is sniffing out majors, not regular tournaments.  Masters Champion Adam Scott will make his first appearance since giving Australia its first Green Jacket.  Scott won The Players back in 2004 and is certainly no stranger to TPC Sawgrass.  World No. 2 Rory McIlroy will be making his fourth visit to Sawgrass, where he’s still seeking to break par. McIlroy has missed the cut all three times, with a scoring average of 74.0.  Look out as well for Jim Furyk, a local resident who has missed only 2 of 16 cuts at TPC Sawgrass (13 consecutive made) and likes to show up to Majors.

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2013 PLAYERS Championship:

• Tiger Woods (Golficity Odds 6/1): Tiger has only one top 10 (solo eighth in 2009) since his victory here in 2001, but he’s already a three-time winner on TOUR this season. Like we said, Tiger is hunting majors nowadays, and just because we don’t see him on TV every week, doesn’t mean him and caddy Joe Lacava aren’t practicing like crazy to win these big events. Tiger leads the circuit in strokes gained-putting, adjusted scoring, par breakers, par-3 scoring (T1) and par-5 scoring. We’d say he’s having an old-school Tiger season so far.
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 12/1): Although he hasn’t played well here (one top-35 finish in nine appearances at TPC Sawgrass – T22, 2009) Rose has posted multiple top 25s in his last 15 starts worldwide.  Could this be the week J-Rose rises to major status?  Justin is currently second on TOUR in total driving, sixth in GIR, T7 in proximity, fifth in scrambling and T4 in bogey avoidance.
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 12/1): This will be Adam Scott’s first start since his Masters victory.  Scott won THE PLAYERS in 2004 and has added three top 15s since.  Scott hasn’t played enough rounds to qualify for official rankings, but if he did, he’d sit solidly in second in adjusted scoring and fourth in scrambling.  Don’t underestimate the confidence boost that Green Jacket provides either.  Adam has got to be amped up with Augusta in his back pocket.
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 20/1): Phil played lights-out last week after returning from his break following Augusta. He’s survived each of the last 11 cuts at TPC Sawgrass, a stretch that includes a PLAYERS victory in 2007 and six top 25s. Phil lead after 36 and 54 holes at Quail Hollow last week, but settled for solo third. He also led the field in strokes gained-putting. The always contending lefty already has one win this year in Scottsdale at the WM Open and appears to be playing pretty darn good right about now… 
• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 29/1):  Given his performance over the last few weeks it’s more or less safe to say that Rory is getting his game back in tune after his early-year struggles dropped him out of the World No.1 spot.  McIlroy tied for 10th at Quail Hollow making it his third straight top 25. He led last week’s field in total driving and greens hit, but ranked T69 in strokes gained-putting – a stat that won’t help him this week. Rory is still climbing the learning curve at TPC Sawgrass where he’s 0-for-3 with no sub-par rounds.  But Rory is a competitor…and now with the drama of new clubs and losing world ranking No. 1 behind him, his focus looks to be back.  Tough choice with this one, but he’s worth a go this week – he’s won a couple of majors already!

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 45/1):  The local Florida resident has missed just two of his last 16 cuts at TPC Sawgrass and posted eight top 25s.  Furyk ranks fifth on TOUR in fairways hit and first in proximity to the hole.  With thirteen consecutive cuts made here, Furyk has two top 10s in his last five starts.  Jim almost won a recent major at the 2012 U.S. Open before falling short to Webb Simpson.

• Billy Horschel (Golficity Odds 50/1): We love watching this guy.  Horschel is the only first-timer at TPC Sawgrass in this feature, but he lives locally and ranks among the most in-form golfers in the world right now. Billy has put together three top 10s as a prelude to his breakthrough victory in New Orleans. Horschel hasn’t missed a cut in what feels like an eternity.  A long shot for sure, but worth a look – Vegas has him at an attractive 40/1.

Last Week’s Fantasy Golf Predictions Results (The 2013 Wells Fargo Championship)

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win

• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 6/1): T10
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 10/1): T22
• D.A. Points (Golficity Odds 16/1): T16
• Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 22/1): MC
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 25/1): MDF 

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Webb Simpson (Golficity Odds 50/1):   T32
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 50/1):  3

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(Cover Photo Credit)