Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Quicken Loans National

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 Quicken Loans National

The Quicken Loans National Fantasy Preview

‘The harder I practice, the luckier I get.’

A number of different golfers have been attributed to coining that phrase down the years, from Arnold Palmer to Gary Player, and it is a motif that Jordan Spieth lived by this past week.

Whether he has been practicing hard is anybody’s guess, but he certainly got lucky at the Travelers Championship. In the first playoff hole against Daniel Berger, his tee shot thwacked into a tree before ricocheting back onto the fairway, before his second shot found the greenside bunker. Berger was on the fringe, so he was a short favorite to win the hole and odds-on to at least halve it.

But Spieth had other ideas. He chipped in from the sand to spark wild celebrations with his caddie, before order was restored and the gallery watched on as Berger’s birdie putt missed by a couple of feet.

 

Luck is a funny old thing, but in truth Spieth was arguably the best player on show all weekend. His victory was nigh-on a wire-to-wire effort, and he became just the second man – alongside Tiger Woods – to win ten times worldwide by the age of 24.

In a neat twist, this week’s tournament – the Quicken Loans National – has been hosted by Woods and his charitable foundation for a number of years, and while the man himself will be absent as he continues his journey to full health the show must go on.

The event has typically been hosted by the sumptuous Congressional through the years, although a decision has been made that means that course will only host the tournament in even-numbered years.

In odd years the Quicken Loans will move around a number of venues on a rotational basis, and this year it lands at TPC Potomac in Maryland, a course that hasn’t hosted a tour-level event in a decade.

So we don’t really have any course form to work with….but digging out value picks is part of the fun of daily fantasy golf, isn’t it?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Travelers Championship

Well, we quickly learned on Friday that JT wasn’t the ideal Top Tier pick and Spieth (although his price was higher and he was more widely picked) was the guy to run with.

Despite losing Justin Thomas to the cut line, we fared pretty well otherwise, picking up fantasy points early from hot starts by Reed, Harman, Furyk, Simpson, and Reavie. It looked to be smooth sailing for Chez Reavie having carded 69-66-69 before letting down fantasy players everywhere on Sunday with a disappointing 73.

Simpson proved to be a solid sleeper at $6,900, going 68-66-68 over the final three days with nine birdies, one eagle, and only three bogeys (and nothing worse). Webb finished with a solid 77.0 fantasy points on DraftKings.

Some advice: you’ll notice a lot of our picks from our Main Picks segment, Tuesday Sleeper Report, and FanDuel Picks often contain a lot of overlap which means that we are putting a lot of emphasis on those players this week.

For those of you asking whether or not our GPFP algorithm works, check out how the Top 3 in last week’s predictions finished:

As for FanDuel, six of our eight players made the cut with four total players finishing in the Top 17. We’re sure anyone who mixed and matched and subbed in Spieth as a ‘feel-good’ pick banked some good money.

Again, we’re disappointed by JT’s poor play, but it’s golf; and it happens.

The 2017 Quicken Loans National Championship Field

It’s something of a bottom-heavy field this week, with Rickie Fowler a clear and obvious favorite. With a pair of top-five finishes in his last three starts, he stands head-and-shoulders above the rest. Presuming he can forget his US Open shenanigans, Fowler will surely go close in Maryland.

His main rung of competition includes Justin Thomas, who in the past two weeks has beguiled and besmirched in equal measure, as well as the likes of Patrick Reed and Kevin Chappell; outstanding talents but perhaps two players who simply don’t win enough.

Otherwise it is the usual blend of up-and-coming talents and tour veterans, with Billy Hurley III looking to defend his title alongside other former winners of this event including Troy Merritt, Bill Haas, and Nick Watney.

This Week’s Course Preview

We have a new course to consider this week in TPC Potomac, which has undergone a $20 million renovation to get it up to PGA TOUR standard. After reopening in 2009 it won a stack of ‘Best New Course’ awards, and that at least bodes well. No less a judge than Fred Couples said that “….I think the back nine is incredible. Really, really a great golf course.” And who are we to disagree with the mighty Freddie C.

The track will play at around 7,139 yards for its Par 70 mark, and renovation work guided by the likes of Pete Dye, Tom Fazio and Davis Love III has helped to ratchet up the difficulty factor somewhat.

This includes the reformation of Rock Run Creek, a voluble stretch of water that plays a hand on five holes of the back nine. Keeping it out of the drink will, naturally, be a factor come Sunday afternoon.

The greens are Bentgrass in build while the fairways have been planted with Zoysia grass; the first of the ‘Championship’ courses to do so. This surface is familiar for those who have played their golf in South Africa; it is thin and reedy, and a potential nuisance when wet.

The bunkers have been remodeled to a Scottish Links style design and lined with – wait for it – fescue grass. Keeping out of those might be a wise idea.

The course hosted the Booz Allen Classic (renamed from the Kemper Open) between 1987-2006, but since redevelopment it has only played host to a couple of Web.com Tour events – the Neediest Kids Championship in 2012, and the Mid-Atlantic Championship a year later.

A post shared by TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm (@tpcpotomac) on Jun 20, 2017 at 2:55pm PDT

Weather Forecast for Potomac, Maryland

El Scorchio would perhaps be the easiest way to describe the forecast for Potomac this week, with hot and sunny spells the prevailing trend all week until Sunday.

Temperatures are expected to peak at 95 degrees – hot by anybody’s standards, although the winds, which are expected to stiffen throughout each day up to a maximum of 14 mph, may provide some solace.

A quick note about Sunday, when the forecast is predicting ‘scattered thunderstorms.’ Of all the weather groups that is perhaps the most unpredictable, so who knows how heavy these will be or when (if?) they will strike.

Last Year’s Results from the Quicken Loans National

For a variety of reasons, Billy Hurley III’s victory in last year’s edition of the Quicken Loans National pulled on the heartstrings. Not long after his father’s suicide, the maiden returned to his home town to secure his first ever PGA TOUR title.

He showed tremendous character down the back nine, birdieing 15 and 16, to rack up a round of 68 and see off the diverse threat of Vijay Singh, Jon Rahm, and Ernie Els.

Hurley’s victory took all of the headlines and deservedly so; there can’t be many more deserving PGA TOUR winners out there. But a year on it was the exploits of Rahm, on his professional debut, that have made the most lingering impact.

The Spaniard finished three back in T3, and confirmed the promise he had shown as an amateur in various appearances on tour. A year later and, well, the rest has been history!

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZx_0nwUFdk[/embedyt]

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Quicken Loans National this Week

DraftKings is pushing their weekend contests hard at the moment, but even so they have come up trumps with another varied roster for serious and casual gamers alike.

FanDuel have also devised a wide-ranging set of events too, but this pair of DK tourneys look great value:

• PGA $25k Albatross: Really confident in your roster this week? Then why not put your money where your mouth is with this single-entry contest. The top prize is a cool $2.5k.
• Summer Bash: PGA $450k Dogleg: A $50k top prize is the sweetener in this $33 entry contest, and a cool $1k is on offer for anyone finishing inside the top 25.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Quicken Loans National

As mentioned, this is a new course for the Quicken Loans National this time around and so details are fairly narrow in their scope.

As we know, this is a short track and follows in a lineage of Par 70 events that have dominated the tour in the past few weeks. The weather will again be warm with a touch of wind, and so really there is nothing to suggest that current form will not translate to further success here.

The tour has ricocheted from Bentgrass to Bermuda greens in recent weeks, so putting stats are only relevant to a certain extent, but pinning your hopes on those who have excelled on the former – tracks include Erin Hills, Muirfield Village and Colonial – is a wise move.

There are only two Par 5s of course, so the players will have to do the bulk of their scoring on the Par 4s. We have no idea of what the average winning score is here, but anything from -10 to -13 seems likely, so avoiding bogeys is key too.

Can Potomac be overpowered by long hitters? We shall find out this week, but we suspect that sticking with methodical players might well be the best bet for daily fantasy success.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Quicken Loans National

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Quicken Loans National

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Rickie Fowler (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 81.5, GPFP: 101.11 Salary: $12,000)

Oh Rickie. That first major title continues to elude the world number nine, who really should have converted at the US Open. An opening round of 65 got Fowler into a winning position, and a third round of 68 kept him in contention. But once again Sunday proved to be his downfall, and in the end he had to settle for a T5 finish.

But add that to his T11 return at Augusta and, clearly, we have a player for whom a big win is surely a probable, rather than possible, outcome.

Fowler had tended to do the business in run of the mill events too, with top-10s at the Memorial, Houston Open, and Phoenix Open as well as victory at the Honda Classic. In 13 starts he has notched six top-10 finishes; an incredible conversion rate of nearly 50%.

Even his missed cuts come with caveats. The first was at the Zurich Classic, a team event which you sense some of the pairs took more seriously than others. And then of course there was the last time we drafted him at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, when you sense his attention was focused on Erin Hills rather than a tilt at the title there.

His game should presumably be well suited to TPC Potomac given that he is brilliant off the tee and in finding greens, and you won’t find many whose record on Bentgrass greens can match that of Fowler.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 1st
• SG: Total – 2nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Bill Haas (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 58.0, GPFP: 46.40  Salary: $9,500)

It’s hard to overlook Haas’ record in this event; particularly when we factor in a top-five in his last outing into the mix.

A 3-4 double whammy in the last two years of Quicken Loans action confirms that he is able to adapt his game to different courses – maybe he just loves playing golf in the Maryland Area?

Haas is a six-time PGA TOUR winner and you suspect he isn’t done quite yet, and you would fancy that the motivation of representing the US in a fourth consecutive President’s Cup later this year might just keep him sharp for the coming months.

Maybe that journey has started already. Haas played some fine golf to finish T5 at the US Open, and that had followed a T12 at the Dean & DeLuca Invitational. It’s an event that is a footnote rather than noteworthy, but Haas also finished T4 in the CSV Classic a couple of days after Erin Hills.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 8th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 21st
• SG: Tee to Green – 27th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Danny Lee (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 53.7, GPFP: 51.00 Salary: $8,200)

With three top-10s in his last five starts, there aren’t many players on the PGA TOUR who are in as good form as Danny Lee at present, and he will be hoping to covert that into silverware and big money paychecks.

Most pleasing is that each of those has come at what we might consider correlated courses – Colonial, Muirfield Village, and TPC River Highlands are all Par 70s anyway – and that confirms Lee’s love of shorter stretches.

Like many other players in the ascendancy, Lee’s stats don’t read that well given his poor start to the campaign, but his key numbers at the Travelers – he gained at least a shot on the field from tee-to-green and with his putter – highlight just how well he is playing.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 32nd
• Birdie Average – 33rd
• Total Driving – 57th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

James Hahn (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 53.6, GPFP: 56.24 Salary: $7,600)

It was something of a surprise that James Hahn didn’t play in the Travelers last week at a track that would presumably suit him, but not to worry as that means he will be fresh for this week and an event he should go well in.

As one of the tour’s shorter hitters naturally Par 70 set-ups suit his game more readily, and decent showings at Byron Nelson (third) and the Memorial (T6 at a short Par 70) confirm the point.

Hahn’s ability to find fairways and greens on time should be useful this week, as will an impressive touch on Bentgrass greens: he gained an outstanding +1.498 strokes on the field with his putter at the Memorial.

He is also one of the few who has played this course competitively – T36 at that Neediest Kids Championship back in 2012 – so a few different factors are converging quite nicely for Hahn this week.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 27th
• Greens in Regulation – 47th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 75th

Low-Tier Pick:

Luke List (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 53.5, GPFP: 42.82 Salary: $6,900)

Luke List remains a real headscratcher for fans of deep stats: his numbers suggest he should be challenging for titles week in, week out.

It doesn’t ever seem to pan out that way for the 32-year-old, although it has to be said he played supremely well last time out the St. Jude Classic. A middle pair of 66s getting him into contention before a final round of 73 left him in T18.

That was a Par 70 though, which shows the big hitter can find a way on short courses. He gained +2.79 strokes from tee-to-green there and ranks 22nd for the same stat on tour, so if he could just get his putter going he would be a genuine contender for honors.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 12th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 22nd
• Greens in Regulation – 29th

Sleeper Pick for the Quicken Loans National

Jason Kokrak (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 51.1, GPFP: 55.61  Salary: $7,00)

Having finished T26 at the Travelers, you might assume that Kokrak produced what we might term a ‘competent performance,’ but digging down into his numbers reveals otherwise.

He gained +2.105 strokes on the field from tee-to-green – a metric that typically defines how well a player is striking the ball – and only six men in the field outperformed him for this measure. There was also +1.669 strokes gained on approach; only three players bettered this effort.

So why didn’t Kokrak finish top ten, as the absolute minimum, then? Well, because his putter was ice cold: -0.785 with the short stick. But what we do know is that good putting comes and goes – one day it can click and everything sinks – and so for that reason it might just be worth having Kokrak on side this week. His upward trend appears ready to continue on that axis.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving: 38th
• SG: Tee-to-Green: 70th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders: 75th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Quicken Loans National

Grayson Murray (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 51.8, GPFP: 41.42  Salary: $6,800)

With a formline of 26-18-35, Grayson Murray is rounding up to some perfect sleeper form.

It’s lucky for him that his golf game is better than his social media game, where he continues to apply foot firmly to mouth. Still, you have to recognise when a player is in good form and great value; regardless of their opinions on some rather hot topics.

All in all, Murray has made the cut in each of his last eight starts – perfect bargain performance, with his best work coming at the Par 70s of Four Seasons, Southwind and River Highlands; all championship TPC courses.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 41st
• Birdie Average – 52nd
• Total Driving – 58th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

Sample Lineup With Fowler

Sample Lineup Without Fowler

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.90%” bar_text=”16 out of 203 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.20%” bar_text=”43 out of 203 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”39.40%” bar_text=”80 out of 203 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”20.70%” bar_text=”6 out of 29 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”10.30%” bar_text=”3 out of 29 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”74.90″ bar_text=”152 out of 203 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the Quicken Loans National with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram