Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2017 PGA Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 PGA Championship

The 2017 PGA Championship Fantasy Preview

As rounds of golf go, the 61 that Hideki Matsuyama fired on Sunday to win the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational is as good as it gets.

The Japanese ace was in the mix for honors anyway after opening up with 69-67-67, but with those around him starting to twitch on Sunday, Matsuyama took full advantage.

On a day when the mean score for those around the top of the leaderboard was about 67.5, the now five-time PGA TOUR winner made seven birdies, an eagle and went bogey-free as he found 895 of greens in regulation and gained 1.843 strokes on the field with his putter.

With form like that, surely we can start to engrave his name onto the PGA Championship trophy already? Well, hold your horses. Firestone CC may have been set-up like a major, but we suspect that Quail Hollow, the host venue for this year’s fourth and final major, may have more of a sting in its tail.

So who will take their chance to land the final ‘big fish’ of the calendar year? We’ll explore that in a moment, but first let’s recap how our fantasy picks performed last week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

Our Premium Members got a special lift last week from our Tuesday Sleeper Report where our ZJ/Pieters combo helped bail out some other names in order to cash in nicely last week. While our top two picks we’re Spieth (T13) and Fowler (9th), the righteous combo would have been Matsuyama and Hoffman in their place with the ZJ/Pieters combo.

In our main picks we finished with three Top 13’s while the Sleeper Report returned two Top-4 picks and all five of the “long shots” (coming off of 50/1 or greater Vegas Odds) ended up in the Top 28.

Despite Henley not showing up,  this roster crafted by one of our Premium Members shows you that one bad pick won’t ruin your week. Even with Henley (T66, 51.5 FP), this member still finished 37th which in a field of 37,000 equates to being in the Top 0.10% percent finishers!

The 2017 PGA Championship Field

A major tournament brings with it a major field, and a whopping 113 of the top 115 players in the world of golf, plus some former PGA Championship winners and old favorites, will be in attendance at Quail Hollow.

The only absentees are Martin Kaymer, who has undergone shoulder surgery, and Scott Piercy, who is absent for personal reasons.

Other than that, all the big guns have come out to play in North Carolina. Jordan Spieth will be looking to join a small and prestigious club of career grand slam winners – not bad for a guy that has just turned 24, but he faces competition from a stacked field that includes the likes of Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson, defending champion Jimmy Walker, US Open winner Brooks Koepka, and Quail Hollow specialists Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, and Phil Mickelson.

Will this be the week that Jason Day roars back to form? Maybe a bright young star in the making – a Jon Rahm, a Daniel Berger, or a Thomas Pieters – will pick up their first major? Or perhaps a wily old campaigner, maybe a Zach Johnson, a Charley Hoffman or a Matt Kuchar, can get over the line.

We’ve not even mentioned the likes of Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, and Sergio Garcia yet….man, picking a major winner these days is a darn difficult task!

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s Quail Hollow, Jim, but not as we know it.

Okay, so that’s not strictly true, but three new holes have been created by Tom Fazio to turn this PGA TOUR level course, which annually hosts the Wells Fargo Championship, into a major venue.

The aim of that work has been to toughen up the stretch, with the new first hole now measuring a whopping 524-yards, but typically the greatest protection offered to Quail Hollow is the wind. Compare and contrast the winning scores of -9 (James Hahn, 2016) and -8 (Derek Ernst, 2013) here in blowy conditions compared to -21 (Rory McIlroy, 2015) and -15 (McIlroy 2010, Lucas Glover 2011) in a more benign set-up.

So the forecast could play a part this week (keep your eyes peeled to the forecasts for any possible draw biases), and so could the mood that Fazio was in when he devised his round of changes.

What we do know is that the course has been lengthened to around 7,600 yards from 7,442, and that the traditional Par 72 mark has been squeezed into Par 71. The organisers are desperate for this not to turn into a low-scoring shootout, it seems.

Other factors to note are that the course was changed from Bentgrass to Bermuda after the 2013 edition of the Wells Fargo, and also that this track plays at significant elevation changes – the average is some 600ft above sea level.

The move to Bermuda grass could be significant. When dry, these greens will be much tougher to hold than wet Bermuda or Bentgrass of any sort, and playing from the rough can be a confidence-shaker as well: will the players get fast shooters or soft flops out of the rough stuff?

Here’s a quick look at the revised 18 holes:

Hole 1: Now a whopping 540-yard Par 4, Fazio combined the old first hole with parts of the second to create a doglegging-right behemoth. The key is the elevated green, protected by three large bunkers, that will require a well-struck mid-iron to hit and hold the dancefloor.

Hole 2: As a consequence of the reconstructed first, the second hole is a Par 4 which we think will play approximately 450 yards. The elevated green slopes markedly from back to front, presenting a tough 170-odd yard entry from the fairway.

Hole 3: A ridged green well protected by sand is the key to this 483-yard Par 4, a hole which requires a long and straight tee shot to ensure the perfect angle in for the second.

Hole 4: Another reimagined hole for the 2017 PGA Championship, this 184-yard Par 3 offers up a large undulating green that could deliver a birdie opportunity if the players can find the right slope to feed back to the flag.

Hole 5: Tee shot placement is central to this mild doglegging right Par 4 (449 yards). The fairway is protected by bunkers on either side, while the small green presents a challenge to iron accuracy.

Hole 6: The second of the Par 3s is a monster at 249 yards, and while it plays downhill it’s still a testing long iron or even hybrid in. Making par here will do nicely.

Hole 7: The first Par 5 follows, the shortest on the course at 546 yards. Most in the field will be able to reach the green in two if their tee shot is long and straight, and that is the key: bunkers left and a ridge to the right place an emphasis on an accurate drive.

Hole 8: You’re playing for major glory, the pressure is on and you are presented by this risk-and-reward set-up: the green of this 346-yard Par 4 can be driven, and while the front is protected by bunkers and trees there could be an opportunity for a 50ft eagle putt for those willing to take it on.

Hole 9: This Par 4 is a juicy 505 yards with a second shot that is played up a significant slop – it may even require a hybrid, which will be exceptionally tough to hold if the greens are dry and fast. A big sand trap at roughly 290 yards offers peril off the tee too.

Hole 10: Another risk-and-reward hole, a 300+ yard drive, avoiding the bunkers left and right, can set up another demanding second shot into this 592-yard Par 5. The lay-up is easier – but major champions rarely do things the easy way.

Hole 11: This Par 4 was lengthened almost 40 yards by Fazio in his makeover work to 462 in total, and while the temptation will be to fade around the dogleg left a pair of bunkers await with anticipation.

Hole 12: This 456-yard, Par 4 favors those who prefer a left-to-right shot shape, and an undulating green will require an accurate short iron in to ensure an agreeable uphill putt is left.

Hole 13: A Par 3 that measures 205 yards and features a sloping green with heavy run-off areas. Making birdie here will be tough.

Hole 14: Water is in play for the first real time of note here, protecting the left-hand side of the hole, and perhaps makes those who want to drive the green of this 344-yard Par 4 think twice. Decision-making off the tee, especially on Sunday, could prove pivotal.

Hole 15: A downhill drive followed by an uphill second – this 577-yard Par 5 shows off Quail Hollow’s elevation changes to their full extent. The green features a central ridge too, turning seemingly good iron approaches into potential disasters.

Hole 16: The last three holes at Quail Hollow are known as the ‘Green Mile’, and anybody that has seen the movie of the same name will already have a sense of why. The green has been moved some 80 yards left to bring a lake into play, and has turned this 506-yard Par 4 into a dogleg right that requires quality ball striking.

Hole 17: Reminiscent of Sawgrass’ signature island Par 3, this 223-yard effort is essentially an island landing area with a required carry over the water of some 200 yards (depending on which tee is used).

Hole 18: The final hole is considered one of the toughest closers in golf; good luck, fellas! Off the tee players are given the fear by bunkers right and water left, while the green is protected by hazards and sits atop a steep slope. Dreams could well be crushed here come Sunday.

Weather Forecast for Charlotte, North Carolina

Unfortunately, rain is once again on the menu.

Thunderstorms will come on Monday and remain through Tuesday, and while there might be a sunny interlude on Wednesday the next four days do not look promising at all.

Thursday should dawn quite well, but showers arrive around lunchtime and hang around for the rest of the day. At least wind speeds (6 mph top speed) are down.

The rain stays around overnight and could linger until lunchtime, at which point the storms will become less frequent.

The weekend follows a similar pattern unfortunately: scattered thunderstorms throughout. In these cases it is difficult to make an accurate forecast – who knows when the clouds will burst? – but stay tuned to the forecasts right up until the last moment.

Last Year’s Results from the PGA Championship

The Battle of Baltusrol was eventually won by Jimmy Walker after a rain-hit tournament.

He had to play 29 holes in a single day, and incredibly didn’t record a single bogey as his 67-68 was enough to claim the spoils and prevent Jason Day from clinching back-to-back PGA Championships.

The key was his play on the 18th – a 289-yard three wood plopped into greenside rough, but an up-and-down secured Walker’s first major and confirmed what most suspected: he’s got the game to win golf’s biggest prizes.

Daniel Summerhays rounded out the top three, while Branden Grace, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brooks Koepka were locked in a tie for fourth. Henrik Stenson, who started the day just two strokes behind Walker, had to make do with joint seventh.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the PGA Championship this Week

This is the final major of the calendar year, and so all of the DFS platforms have gone big with their efforts this week.

Competitive slates at FanDuel and DraftKings really catch the eye, and with millions of dollars worth of prize money up for grabs the anticipation is electric!

• PGA $3m Fantasy Golf Millionaire: You know the game here: the winner becomes a millionaire, and all for a mere $33 stake. The fact that there is a total prize pool of $3m, with the top 50 players each trousering a minimum of $1000, gets the juices flowing.
• PGA $550k Fore: If your budget is rather more circumspect then how about this $4 contest. The winner trousers $30,000, with the top 700 earning a minimum of $50.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the PGA Championship

Length off the tee could be a crucial weapon this week in order to avoid those twitchy long iron approaches. A track measuring 7,600 yards is long by anyone’s standards, but when you factor in that there are only three Par 5s – and there’s sure to be nerve around in this major – getting a headstart off the tee could be vital.

Even accounting for changes to Quail Hollow, we can still use data from Wells Fargo Championship editions of yesteryear for guidance. The 2016 event is particularly illuminating: of the top 10 players on the leaderboard, nine finished inside the top-25 for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. That’s another obvious point of reference when drafting line-ups this week.

Putting on Bermudagrass is crucial of course – and remember we’ve been on a Bentgrass wing for a few weeks now, but really the recipe for success this week, assuming the rain comes, is flushing irons in the 160-190 yard range and getting them close on softer greens than expected.

There are elevation changes to consider, but if conditions are wet then these become less of an issue.

And major pedigree; well, it kind of goes without saying. Aside from Danny Willett and arguably Brooks Koepka, the most recent major winners have won before on the PGA TOUR – that’s still a crucial component when weighing up who is going to win these big tournaments.

Don’t forget to use our Premium Fantasy Tools this week (like this one) to give you a better chance to take home the $1,000,000 prize. Premium Members can log in to see what undervalued player ranks 5th in the entire field in GPFP (Golficity Prediction Fantasy Points) at only a $7,000 price tag!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The PGA Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the PGA Championship

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Rory McIlroy (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 71.5, GPFP: 84.37 Salary: $11,800)

After an excellent four days at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, we simply had to have McIlroy on side at a Quail Hollow track he loves.

After ditching long-term caddie JP for his friend, Harry Diamond, we had to wonder how the Irishman would fare given that his game hasn’t been in great shape for a while.

Well, what a difference it has made. McIlroy was smiling, joking, and appeared to be enjoying his golf again, and the result was a fine performance at Firestone. A T5 finish was punctuated by +2.029 strokes gained from tee to green. Importantly, he ranked first for Driving Distance and an impressive 14th for Driving Accuracy into the bargain. By ranking ninth for GIR, we can see that he backed his excellent drives with effective iron play.

And the putter? Well, it was hit-and-miss but crucially he gained strokes on the field in two of his four rounds with the flat stick; including a remarkable +2.652 on Thursday.

A two-time PGA Championship winner, just take a look at McIlroy’s record at Quail Hollow: 4-1-8-10-2-MC-1. There really is no reason not to back him this week, and barring a disastrous return to the bad old ways with his putter, the rejuvenated Irishman will surely go very close indeed.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – +1.332
• SG: Tee-to-Green – +2.002
• Greens in Regulation – 66.50%

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 87.4, GPFP: 109.29 Salary: $10,500)

How can we not after his brilliance at Firestone? He gained a huge +3.737 strokes on the field from tee-to-green, and that is symbolic of how much better he was than anybody else in Ohio!

Matsuyama has shown a growing affection for Quail Hollow with a chronological run reading 11-20-38 – last year ranking fifth for SG: T2G there.

And let’s not forget his return from the last four majors: 14-2-11-4, with six career top-10s in majors to his credit as well. Matsuyama is clearly someone who thrives on the big stage, and it’s unlikely he will have entered a big tournament striking the ball as well as this before.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 2nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 11th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Daniel Berger (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 68.0, GPFP: 67.32 Salary: $7,700)

It has been a campaign in which Daniel Berger has come of age. He has grabbed his second PGA TOUR title and recorded six other top-five finishes.

He was second only to Jordan Spieth’s ridiculous chip-in at the Travelers, but showed great mental strength to finish fifth at the John Deere Classic a week later. His T17 last time out at the WGC-Bridgestone doesn’t look all that impressive, but gaining +1.771 on the field from tee-to-green showcases how well he is striking the ball at present.

Berger was also excellent from tee-to-green at Quail Hollow in the 2016 Wells Fargo, which informed his T17 finish there, and you sense that a big performance from the 24-year-old on the major stage is due.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach-the-Green – 6th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 14th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 24th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Charley Hoffman (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 72.7, GPFP: 85.01 Salary: $7,600)

Charley Hoffman has been playing excellent golf for a good while now, and he’s another who looks ready to make the step up in class in a major.

Since the US Open his form reads 3-2-20-39-3-8, and with that run including two majors (eighth in the US Open, T20 at the British Open) we really can’t moan at his progress.

You have probably seen that viral video on social media of Hoffman telling his caddie he was going for the green on the Par 5 16th at Firestone on Sunday. “I’m three back with three to play,” he reasoned. “I’m sick of finishing second.” He made the green, by the way, with a 280-yard monster hit.

That shows remarkable confidence, and indicates Hoffman is desperate to grab another ‘W.’

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 10th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 13th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 26th

Low-Tier Pick:

Kevin Chappell (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 60.6, GPFP: 70.28 Salary: $7,000)

We believe that Chappell’s extra length off the tee could come in handy this week, with his 330-yard bullets minimizing the distance his second shot has to travel.

After an outstanding 2016 season, Chappell had dropped off the radar this season until a final round of 68 seemed to transform his whole energy. Victory at the Texas Open followed – his first on Tour – and after a period of cool he has returned to form with T4 at the St Jude Classic, T23 at the US Open, T8 at the Canadian Open, and T17 at the WGC-Bridgestone since.

The 31-year-old has a pair of top-20s at Quail Hollow to his name in his last three visits.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 23rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 25th
• Total Driving – 27th

Sleeper Pick for the PGA Championship

Brendan Steele (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 67.8, GPFP: 65.75 Salary: $7,300)

It’s been a strange old season for Brendan Steele. After winning the very first event of the campaign at the Safeway Open, he would have been confident of producing something very special in 2017, but it hasn’t quite panned out that way.

There were quite a few top-20s in the first few months, but a natural fallow period followed and we wondered whether Steele had regressed to a more natural level.

Perhaps he has, but T13 at the US Open was a timely reminder of his talents and T24 at the WGC-Bridgestone was capped by ranking 10th for Driving Distance, 18th for Driving Accuracy and T1 for Greens in Regulation.

The only thing holding him back is the putter, but the switch from Bentgrass to Bermuda may just facilitate an improvement there.

Steele’s best two performances at Quail Hollow have come in his last pair of visits (T9 in 2015 and T14 in 2016).

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 175-200 yards: 4th
• SG: Tee-to-Green: 16th
• SG: Off-the-Tee: 33rd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the PGA Championship

Zach Johnson (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 62.1, GPFP: 49.64 Salary: $6,800)

An unlikely suspect for a sleeper pick, Zach Johnson might just go under the radar this week given his perceived lack of length.

But we always like to have ZJ on side when the majors roll around, and we’ve been rewarded with T27 at the US Open and T14 at The British Open.

The idea behind that is if the weather does take a turn for the worse, as it appears likely too, Johnson can grind with the best of them.

A happy coincidence is that his outstanding form has continued of late, with the two-time major winner finishing second last time out at Firestone. He’s finished in the top-20 twice in his last four visits to Quail Hollow, too.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 15th
• Driving Accuracy – 20th
• Approaches from 125-150 yards – 34th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

This Week’s Sample Lineups

With Rory McIlroy

Without Rory McIlroy

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”8.20%” bar_text=”20 out of 245 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.60%” bar_text=”53 out of 245 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”40.00%” bar_text=”98 out of 245 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”17.10%” bar_text=”6 out of 35 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”14.30%” bar_text=”5 out of 35 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”76.30″ bar_text=”187 out of 245 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the PGA Championship with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram