Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The Northern Trust

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Northern Trust

The Northern Trust 2017 Fantasy Preview

Now that’s how you lead into the FedExCup playoffs. Henrik Stenson grabbed the sixth PGA TOUR title of his career at the Wyndham Championship on Sunday – but needed to post a course record to see off the hopes of young Ollie Schneiderjans.

The Swede compiled three straight birdies on 15-17 to confirm his one-shot victory, but boy was it close when fast-finishing Schneiderjans drew level heading into the final throes.  The 24-year-old birdied three of his final four holes, but it would prove to be not quite enough as Stenson held his nerve to post a four at the last and finish on -22; one stroke less than the previous course record holder, and defending champion, Si-Woo Kim.

There were celebrations all round as four players gained enough points to move into the FedExCup playoffs. Rory Sabbatini, the in-form South African, finished T4 to book his spot at this week’s Northern Trust Open alongside Martin Flores, JJ Henry, and Harold Varner III. Geoff Ogilvy, who was in the 125th and final FedExCup spot, did just enough to book his spot in New York this week.

So we’re off to the Big Apple this week for the first of the FedExCup Playoff events, and regular followers of the Northern Trust should note that the host venue this year, and for the first time in rotation, is Glen Oaks, of the Old Westbury suburb. It’s a course that is yet to host a professional golf tournament, so it could be tin hat and shield time for DFS gamers!

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Wyndham Championship

It proves the point that Fantasy Golf is difficult when a guy like Henrik Stenson who has put together a shaky 2017 campaign goes out and beats a field of hot players. Hats off to the Swede who rolls into the playoffs with a win, but it was the winning combo of Henrik-Webb-Ollie which proved to be the recipe for fantasy earnings last week.

Despite their poor finishes, Kisner finished the week with 75 FP and our alternate sleeper pick Sabbatini banked a healthy 112.50. In total, our main picks segment made 5 cuts of 7 players picked, with a total of 466 fantasy points.

It was extremely difficult to win last week without Stenson’s impressive 146 fantasy points! We’re kicking ourselves for opting to steer clear of Stenson, but we hope to rebound strongly this week.

The Northern Trust 2017 Field

So the top 125 in the Fed ExCup standings are confirmed, and this week’s field is locked in place.

The nature of how the rankings system works means we’ve got the most consistent players on Tour taking their place in NYC; for what it’s worth, the FedExCup standings, as of right now, serve up a top-10 that reads:

Hideki Matsuyama (1), Justin Thomas (2), Jordan Spieth (3), Dustin Johnson (4), Rickie Fowler (5), Jon Rahm (6), Brooks Koepka (7), Daniel Berger (8), Kevin Kisner (9), Brian Harman (10).

Don’t forget, the harsh nature of the playoffs means that only 100 players will tee up at Deutsche Bank Championship next week, which puts the likes of Emiliano Grillo, Branden Grace, Jimmy Walker, Luke Donald, and Bubba Watson in the spotlight.

But there are plenty of points to play for this week….who will trouser enough to progress to the next stage of the playoffs?

This Week’s Course Preview

Glen Oaks will be a new course for the vast majority in this field, and information regarding its layout is scarce.

The PGA TOUR website is running a piece at the moment which features some nice quotes – most notably from Scott Brown, who played the stretch 12 months ago, as well as the thoughts of course superintendent Craig Currier.

To offer a sort of potted view of Glen Oaks, this is a fairly typical Par 70 at 7,300 yards, and it has been renovated with the help of Joel Weiman to produce a classic test of ball-striking. Trees have been removed – partly by design, partly by hurricanes Irene and Hermine, and fairways widened a tad.

The greens are described as pretty fast and are Bentgrass in nature, and you don’t have to look too far for the first correlating course. Both Currier and Weiman worked together on a revamp of Bethpage Black, not a million miles from Glen Oaks and a stretch that hosted the 2009 US Open and two editions of the Barclays Championship.

When researching the track another name crops up on a number of occasions: Augusta National. Mark Brown, who won the 101st Met Open which was hosted by Glen Oaks, has described it as the ‘Augusta of the north,’ and namesake Scott Brown agreed: “It’s a fabulous golf course, similar to Augusta National in that you have to play shots to certain quadrants of the greens.”

In conversation with the New York Post Currier continued with the theme. “the bunker styling is similar to Augusta,” he said. “They’re really deep, flashed sand. We have a lot of great vistas where you can see across three, four, five holes and the bunkers are popping out at you.”

In a week where we are grasping wildly for course-based information, we’ll take this gladly.

Weather Forecast for Old Westbury, New York

At last a week of golf unadulterated by winds and thunderstorms. The forecast is for sunshine and cloudy weather all week, with temperatures ranging from 77 degrees (Sunday) to 82 degrees (Thursday).

Wind speeds will max out at about 10 mph, and so really the only weather-related item of note is the humidity. It’s set to be a sultry week in NYC, and that humidity should enable the golf ball to travel further than normal.

That set-up could help Glen Oaks to provide a stern test this week – the PGA TOUR website states that ‘…if similar conditions [fast and dry] exist August 24-27 for The Northern Trust, Scott Brown suggested his brethren will be tested.’

Greens will surely be as fast as they can be, while the shaved run-off areas around the dancefloors could really make any errant balls fly far from the putting surface.

Last Year’s Results from The Northern Trust

There’s a slight disconnect to note here. In the 2016 season, the Northern Trust Open was played in February at Riviera CC in the Pacific Palisades. Consequently, it was not part of the FedExCup, and so it is of very little relevance this week. Fact fans can note that Bubba Watson lifted the trophy, beating Adam Scott and Jason Kokrak by a single stroke.

The relevant tournament in last year’s campaign was the Barclays Championship, which was the first event of the FedExCup in 2016 and played on the Black course at Bethpage State Park (the same one mentioned earlier in this preview).

There, Patrick Reed bagged the full 2,000 FedExCup points and the trophy, seeing off the challenge of Emiliano Grillo and Sean O’Hair by a solitary stroke. Scott, Jason Day, and Gary Woodland rounded out the top five but they could not catch Reed, whose rounds of 66-68-71-70 suggest he was clinging on by the close of play on Sunday.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Northern Trust this Week

The last of the big field events on the PGA TOUR has witnessed both of the main DFS operators bring out the heavy artillery this week, and while the FanDuel slate is appetizing enough we’re going in with a pair of DraftKings’ finest:

• PGA $550k Dogleg: There’s no mucking about here with this mid-range contest; $33 entry, $100k top prize, the top 12.5% at least doubling their entrance fee at the very minimum.
• PGA $250k Mini 8’s Championship: A new type of contest from DK here, and this Mini 8 (so-called because of the $8 entry) delivers cash prizes to the top 25% of finishers. The jackpot is an agreeable $25,000.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Northern Trust

With so little course information to work with – albeit form at Bethpage Black and Augusta duly noted – we must seek out new ways to formulate our picks this week.

We can use current form as a guide. The Wyndham Championship was a birdie-fest played out by a mostly weak field, so that’s of minimal relevance, but the PGA Championship (quality field) and WGC Bridgestone Invitational (tough course) are certainly worth a look.

Is motivation a factor? The FedExCup points get reset after the BMW Championship in three weeks’ time, so those already near the top of the standings have little to play for here.

That didn’t stop Patrick Reed, who was seventh at the point he won the Barclays 12 months ago, although O’Hair (108th), Kokrak (65th), Woodland (42nd), and Grillo (32nd) clearly made great strikes with their top-10s at Bethpage.

We may be clutching at straws here, but three players finished inside the top-10 at both the Northern Trust Open and the Barclays in 2016 – despite the two events taking place six months apart. Decide for yourself whether there’s a valid connection between the two courses (Riviera and Bethpage) that drove Adam Scott, Jason Kokrak, and Ryan Moore to perform admirably in both.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Northern Trust

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Northern Trust

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Jordan Spieth (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 82.2, GPFP: 65.78 Salary: $11,200)

With an Augusta National narrative writ large across this untested Glen Oaks track, there’s no prizes for guessing who are top pick is this week.

Spieth has never finished outside the top-15 in The Masters, and but for THAT meltdown would already be a two-time Green Jacket wearer in just four visits to the famous old track. And if we want to ride the ‘possible correlating course’ angle into oblivion, then the world number three also has a top-10 at Bethpage under his belt.

Jordan, being the kind of sportsmen he is, will be desperate to put in a big performance this week after a below par T28 at the PGA Championship. There, the pressure was on thanks to the ‘career Grand Slam’ narrative, and now back in the field as a second favorite with the bookmakers he can settle in as just one of the guys again.

The reports suggest there is little danger off the tee at Glen Oaks and its wide fairways, so Spieth – who ranks 125th for Driving Accuracy (it’s still astounding that he is one of the best players on the planet) – should at least enjoy himself here.

And don’t forget that, if the greens dry considerably in the next few days, this could descend into something of a putting contest: who else would you rather have your chips on than this phenom?

Key Stats:

• Putting Average – 2nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 5th
• Greens in Regulation – 12th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Brooks Koepka (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 65.4, GPFP: 52.35 Salary: $9,100)

There is a school of thought that suggests Koepka saves his best golf for the majors, and if that’s the case then hopefully he considers these FedExCup events, and their undoubted riches, with equal enthusiasm.

What a campaign it’s been for the 27-year-old. He’s ticked the major winner box (although you suspect there will be plenty more to come), and is somebody that has finished in the top-10 in roughly 33.3% of his tour starts this term – that is some conversion rate.

Why has he been so readily overlooked by the DFS salary deciders this week? Who knows, because Glen Oaks looks to be set up nicely for him. His occasionally errant tee shots won’t be punished as severely as they might be elsewhere, and his otherwise excellent approach game can flourish.

One of the differences in Koepka’s game this year – apart from keeping the injuries at bay – has been with the putter; he’s now ranked as high as 20th with the flat stick. This week, that could just be the difference between hope and glory.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 175-200 Yards – 1st
• SG: Putting – 20th
• SG: Off the Tee – 31st

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Ollie Schneiderjans (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 64.9, GPFP: 80.48 Salary: $8,100)

“That was probably the best I ever played for four days,” Schneiderjans said at the culmination of the Wyndham Championship on Sunday. “I putted awesome all week.”

Turns of phrase like that tend to prick up the ears of golf punters, and after equalling the course record at Sedgefield the hatless rookie has every reason to feel confident in his game.

We don’t have to worry about motivation with Schneiderjans either, who has his heart set on playing in the Tour Championship – the last of the FedExCup events. He resides close to East Lake, the host venue, and is said to have played the course ‘multiple times.’

He will need to improve his FedExCup standing from the 39th he currently sits at, so another positive showing this week is in the offing.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 13th
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 28th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 40th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Charley Hoffman (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 71.7, GPFP: 57.36 Salary: $7,900)

There was a period of time, from mid-June to early-August, where we thought that Charley Hoffman was going to add to his collection of PGA TOUR winner’s trophies, but all he came away with four top-10 finishes in six starts; including podium finishes at the Canadian Open (solo second), Travelers Championship (T3), and WGC Bridgestone (solo third).

Nevertheless, we believe in long-term form undercurrents, and those numbers suggest the Hoff has been playing good golf for at least two months now. He is, in betting speak, ‘due’ to win one.

What we really like about Hoffman this week is how well he putted on the Bentgrass greens of Firestone at that WGC Bridgestone, ranking third for Strokes Gained: Putting. Those at Glen Oaks will be quicker, we presume, but Hoffman’s in the right kind of place to take full advantage.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off the Tee – 13th
• Approaches from 150-175 Yards – 21st
• SG: Tee to Green – 28th

Low-Tier Pick:

Xander Schauffele (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 54.3, GPFP: 43.44 Salary: $7,000)

It’s only his first full season on the PGA TOUR, so we must refrain from judgement too quickly, but Schauffele is turning into something of a Bentgrass specialist.

From his T24 at the Wells Fargo, the 23-year-old has followed up with T5 at the US Open, T14 at the Travelers, T13 at the WGC Bridgestone and, of course, his maiden tour title at the Greenbrier Classic.

If it’s Bentgrass, there’s every reason to get Schauffele on board.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 26th
• Greens in Regulation – 27th
• SG: Off the Tee – 27th

Sleeper Pick for The Northern Trust

Ryan Moore (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 54.1, GPFP: 62.81 Salary: $7,100)

The six-time PGA TOUR winner is somewhere near his best form at the moment, and if he could only get the putter working his last three starts of 24-13-28 would look considerably better.

He missed five putts within five feet at the Wyndham Championship – just imagine how much better off he would have gained if he’d sunk those.

And yet he has ranked fourth and seventh for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green at the Wyndham and PGA Championship respectively, which suggests he is striking the ball incredibly well.

We are of the school of thought that putting can click in at any time – the switch to Bentgrass may assist Moore, whereas confidence from tee to green takes a whole lot longer to return. So, by that logic, Moore is a worthwhile bet this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 24th
• SG: Tee to Green – 60th
• Approaches from 150-175 Yards – 76th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Northern Trust

Brian Harman (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 65.8, GPFP: 52.62 Salary: $7,000)

Harman bagged a long overdue second PGA TOUR title earlier this season at the Wells Fargo Championship, and that was the icing on what has been a particularly consistent campaign.

Some 50% of his 26 starts have been converted to top-25s, and since lifting the trophy at Eagle Point he’s delivered top-10s at Dean & Deluca and the John Deere Classic, as well as finishing second behind Brooks Koepka at the US Open.

His last start was a T13 at the PGA Championship, so there’s plenty to like about Brian Harman this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting: 5th
• SG: Around the Green: 19th
• Approaches from 175-200 Yards: 43rd

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

This Week’s Sample Lineup Using Spieth

Alternative Sample Lineup With Matsuyama as Alternate

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.72%” bar_text=”20 out of 259 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.24%” bar_text=”55 out of 259 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”39.38%” bar_text=”102 out of 259 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”16.22%” bar_text=”6 out of 37 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”13.51%” bar_text=”5 out of 37 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”74.13″ bar_text=”192 out of 259 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for The Northern Trust with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram