Fantasy Golf Picks & Predictions – 2017 Portugal Masters

European Tour Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2017 Portugal Masters

2017 Portugal Masters Fantasy Preview

1-1-2-2….that’s the form we take into this week’s Portugal Masters after our pick Austin Connelly finished just shy of Romain Wattel at the KLM Open.

The Canadian carded 66-66 over the weekend to fire himself into contention, but the Frenchman held firm with a Sunday 69 to close out the win – incredibly, his first in 187 starts on the European Tour!

The Road to Dubai is edging ever closer for those in the points picture and those just outside it, with just five regular Tour events left to play prior to the finale of 2017 in Turkey, South Africa and, of course, Dubai itself.

The stunning Vilamoura in Portugal is our destination this week, and after the cool temperatures and harsh winds in the Netherlands a week ago this location will provide blessed relief. It will be sunny and warm for all three days, and while the wind will be up at this coastal resort it should not be too damaging to the players’ aspirations.

The Victoria Clube de Golfe is an Arnold Palmer design opened in 2004, and old Arnie must have been in a good mood on consultation day as this is a belter of a stretch for the players to enjoy. It is, in essence, the venue for a birdie fest – the winning mark for the last two years has been -23.

Padraig Harrington of Ireland hits his second shot on the 18th hole…

Padraig Harrington of Ireland hits his second shot on the 18th hole during day four of the Portugal Masters at Victoria Clube de Golfe on October 23, 2016 in Vilamoura, Portugal. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Greens and fairways are spacious and rough trimmed to a minimum, and so really the success of the players is defined by their work with the flat stick. Here are the average ranks for the top-10 finishers in 2016:

• Driving Accuracy: 40.4
• Driving Distance: 32.6
• Greens in Regulation: 34.9
• Putts per Round: 15.9

It goes without saying that anyone who can putt well on Bentgrass greens has a chance this week! What happens from tee to green is largely unimportant, and while of course we favor the players who are striking the ball nicely and in good form, this is a course where players tend to find their A-Game from nowhere – last year’s Portugal Masters champion, Padraig Harrington, had missed three straight cuts prior to his win here.

With all of the above in mind, who are we drafting this week?

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This Week’s Portugal Masters Fantasy Picks & Predictions

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This Week’s Portugal Masters Fantasy Picks

Andy Sullivan – $10,500 – We are, boldly, going to take another chance on Sullivan this week after his missed cut in the Netherlands, but for good reason.

The Englishman was on the wrong side of the draw bias there, meaning his late start on Thursday and early call on Friday really hurt his chances. But if you look at his scorecard, in amongst the mistakes was a raft of birdies, and at the halfway stage of the event he ranked 12th for Putts per Round, so thumbs up to that.

Best of all is Sullivan’s form at the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course. His record here reads 2-1 in his last pair of visits, winning from wire-to-wire in 2015 and just failing to hold on last year after leading at the 36-hole mark.

Nobody has played this stretch better than Sullivan in recent times, and we’re willing to take a chance on this talented fellow this week.

George Coetzee – $9,700 – Our draft this week is a top-and-bottom heavy sort, with value to be found at both ends of the market.

Our dip into the upper echelons continues with George Coetzee, the outstanding South African who returned to form with a bang in Holland last week. He finished T3 in the KLM Open, ranking eleventh for Putts per Round and recording some very nice tee-to-green numbers as well.

The big South African has done okay at this stretch in the past (31-21-6-3) and given how well he hit the ball last time out we’re thinking that another top ten here – at the minimum – is in the offing.

David Lingmerth – $9,200 – Here’s a rare trip to European soil for David Lingmerth, the Swede who has been based in the US for the past decade or so.

The reason he is making the trip to Portugal is obvious: this is a scoring course where putting is the key, and that profile fits Lingmerth’s game to a tee.

He ranks 17th on the PGA TOUR for Strokes Gained: Putting – and that’s no mean feat – plus 66th for Birdie or Better Percentage, and those are two metrics that will serve him well here.

More than 25% of his starts on the PGA TOUR this season have yielded top-25 finishes, and you would expect him to finish even higher than that in a lower quality field like this.

Duncan Stewart – $7,300 – The first of our money-savers this week deserves plenty of attention in his own right, with Duncan Stewart putting exceptionally well of late.

The Scot ranked ninth for Putts per Round at the European Masters and first for the same metric last week, and in finishing T9 and T20 in those events respectively we can see that his all-round game is in decent condition too.

Stewart’s sole professional win came in 2016 on the Challenge Tour in Madrid, which is not a million miles from Vilamoura, so there is plenty of upside to drafting the 33-year-old this week.

Jason Scrivener – $7,200 – We have to make room on our roster for one of the best putters on the European Tour, and especially when he’s hitting the ball nicely at present.

Jason Scrivener ranks 12th on tour for Putts per Round, and it is that skillset that has led the Aussie to five top-20 finishes this season – including two in his last three starts at the Czech Masters (T5) and KLM Open (T20).

Scrivener is a former Australian Junior Champion – an event won by both Adam Scott and Jason Day in their fledgling years, and while his career may not have hit those heights there is no reason why the Antipodean can’t secure another top-10 finish here.

Justin Walters – $7,000 – By the close of Sunday, the $7,000 salary on Justin Walters’ head could look very cheap indeed.

The South African finished T3 at the KLM Open last week – already making a mockery of his price tag, and there he ranked fourth for Putts per Round and eighth for a modified SG: Tee to Green style stat.

Factor in decent course form – 17-37-21-2 – and quite simply Walters is a must pick at the price.

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