Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2017 HSBC-WGC Champions

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 WGC-HSBC Champions

2017 WGC-HSBC Champions Fantasy Preview

Form is temporary, class is permanent. That’s the old saying anyway, and Justin Thomas proved its pertinence by winning the inaugural CJ Cup last week.

After a fairly average performance at one of his most favored events, the CIMB Classic, the week before, Thomas perhaps had something to prove on Jeju Island – although after the 2017 he’s had, he could be forgiven for tiptoeing into the winter break with little fanfare.

But that’s not JT’s style, and the phenom claimed an incredible sixth title of the calendar at an enjoyable tournament that looks to have booked its place on Tour for the foreseeable future. Indeed, as on the European Tour at the Valderrama Masters, it was great to see an event where thinking golf – rather than simply bludgeoning birdies – was the key.

Attention now turns to the most lucrative tournament in late-year period: the WGC-HSBC Champions at Sheshan International in China. This is a WGC event, and so some of the finest golfers from all four corners of the globe will be in town, and unlike last week they can expect a birdie fest: unlike Bubba Watson’s anomalous -11 triumph in 2014, the winning scores in the last three renewals have been -24, -23 and -20.

The total prize kitty is a huge $9,750,000 this week – the highest outside of the majors – and so it’s no surprise to see a high-quality field assemble in China. For the PGA TOUR pros it’s their last potentially massive pay day of the year, while the European Tour players are a week or so away from their season-defining Race to Dubai series.

It’s a big week then for a variety of reasons; who will grab the W?

Hideki Matsuyama of Japan in action during the 2017 CIMB Classic at…

Hideki Matsuyama of Japan in action during the 2017 CIMB Classic at TPC Kuala Lumpur on October 14, 2017 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the CJ Cup

We’re only three tourneys into the year and we already have one winner picked! Although favored by many oddsmakers some were on the fence about fading JT against a stacked CJ Cup field, especially given his disappointing performance defending his CIMB Classic title just a week earlier. Needless to say, we’re glad we ran with him in the top spot on our fantasy rosters.

Last week all of our GPFP and Key Fantasy Stats indicators were telling us “all signs point to JT”.  Thomas’ win along with three other Top 19 finishers resulted in another solid DFS week for our Premium Members!

Let’s see if we can transition the momentum into a bigger event this week.

Justin Thomas of the United States poses with the trophy after…

Justin Thomas of the United States poses with the trophy after winning the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges on October 22, 2017 in Jeju, South Korea. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Meanwhile on the European Tour, although we didn’t make Sergio our Top Pick, we fared pretty darn well with our Joost Luiten (T2) and Nina Bertasio (T8) picks at lower price tags.  That combo helped free up enough roster space to fit more powerhouse studs at cheaper price tag.

2017 WGC-HSBC Champions Field

The lure of riches and silverware has ensured a top-class field for this showdown on Chinese soil.

There are major winners from top to bottom on the card (Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Henrik Stenson, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, and Justin Rose), plus a whole bunch of young aces who will have dreams of joining the major champions club sooner rather than later (Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed, and Xander Schauffele).

The European Tour charge will be led by the likes of Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren, and the in-form Ross Fisher, while the Asian charge will presumably be led by defending champion Matsuyama, home favorite Haotong Li, Si-Woo Kim, and Hideto Tanihara.

Dustin Johnson of the U.S. Team looks on from the 12th tee during…

Dustin Johnson of the U.S. Team looks on from the 12th tee during Saturday foursome matches of the Presidents Cup at Liberty National Golf Club on September 30, 2017 in Jersey City, New Jersey. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

Many golf courses in China take their inspiration from parkland tracks in the UK and America, and Sheshan International is no exception. It is no surprise to note that in 2016 the top-10 was dominated by pros from both the PGA and European Tours.

Sheshan was designed and built by the Nelson & Haworth team responsible for TPC Kuala Lumpur, the host of the CIMB Classic a fortnight ago. Like that track, Sheshan is made up of Seashore Paspalum fairways with the addition of Bentgrass greens, which are undulating and raised.

It has hosted this event every year since 2005, although there was an off-year in 2012 to allow for course renovations to take place. It was lengthened to 7,261 yards for its Par 72, although the overall suggestion is that the bombers haven’t necessarily been afforded greater prominence – the last two champions have been Matsuyama and Russell Knox, neither of whom are the longest off the peg.

Indeed, Sheshan is very much tree-lined, with water in play on eleven holes, so picking your way around the layout is an optimal strategy.

The 18 holes are fairly typical for any Par 72 track, although some items should be noted. Six of the seven opening holes played under par in 2016, so a fast start for those teeing off from the first should be expected. But then comes the stumbling block: the huge 603-yard Par 5 eighth, which averaged 5.22 last year and saw nearly as many double bogeys (five) as birdies (seven) throughout the week.

This middle portion of the course is by far the trickiest, with nine and eleven (both Par 4s) playing over-par despite the general ease of the test.

A blockbuster finish could well be in hand. Two easy Par 5s – the fourteenth and eighteenth – sandwich the Par 4 fifteenth and Par 3 seventeenth, both of which played over par in 2016. The leaderboard could change rather liberally through this home straight!

Hideki Matsuyama of Japan hits his second shot on the 18th hole…

Hideki Matsuyama of Japan hits his second shot on the 18th hole during day four of the WGC – HSBC Champions at Sheshan International Golf Club on October 30, 2016 in Shanghai, China. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Sheshan Island, Shanghai, China

It looks set to be a very settle week for the players this week – which should certainly aid low scoring.

All four days will be graced with sunshine spells and cloud, and temperatures of 72 degrees are probably perfect for playing golf in: not cold, but not too hot either.

The intrigue could come at the weekend, where wind speeds increase from the barely legible on Thursday-Friday to a minimum of 14 mph on Saturday and 18 mph on Sunday. Given what we know about the closing holes, the conclusion of this event could be very interesting indeed….

Last Year’s Results from the WGC-HSBC Champions

Let’s hope it’s more entertaining than the end of the 2016 edition. Then, Hideki Matsuyama took a three-shot lead after 54 holes and, rather than suffering any finishing line nerves, accelerated to the line to win by some seven shots from Henrik Stenson and Daniel Berger.

The Japanese ace led after 36 holes too, which suggests his enjoyment of Sheshan International is unbridled. The 2016 champion, Russell Knox, lay second at the 54-hole stage but could not close down Matsuyama.

Nobody played the last 36 holes better than Adam Scott (-14), while European Tour stalwart Rikard Karlberg (-8) had set the pace with a joint-low round of the week on the Thursday.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WGC-HSBC Champions this Week

It is perhaps worth remembering that there are two PGA TOUR-affiliated tourneys this week – the HSBC and Sanderson Farms back in the US – and that is why the DFS sites have hedged their bets slightly with their slates.

But there’s still plenty of value around, and here are two of the standout contests this week:

• PGA $115k Dogleg: The big dog of DraftKings’ slate is this $33 effort that features a top prize of $10k, with the first 650 of 4063 teams home doubling their money as a minimum.
• PGA $20k Best Ball: Finish inside the top 100 of this 2941 team contest and you will turn your $8 entry into a minimum of $50. Take the top spot and $1,000 will be yours!

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the WGC-HSBC Champions

Unfortunately, the PGA TOUR does not record stats for the Asian Swing events, and so we don’t have a comprehensive set of data to work with this week.

We do, however, have the European Tour’s rather less instructive stats to work with from the past couple of editions of this event.

So we have four main categories: Driving Accuracy (DA), Driving Distance (DD), Greens in Regulation (GIR), and Putts Per Round (PPR). If we take Matsuyama’s winning numbers, we note that he did fairly little of any consequence off the tee (DA: 43, DD: 26) but found plenty of greens (GIR: 10). Perhaps most importantly, he sunk the vast majority of his putts (PPR: 2).

But there are clearly different ways to tackle this Sheshan test. Henrik Stenson ranked first for DA – not surprising given his ditching of the driver – and finished T2, while Daniel Berger ranked just 68th for fairways found and he still tied for second on the leaderboard with Stenson.

What we can say is that the top-eight on the leaderboard all ranked inside the top-20 for Putts Per Round, and all bar one ranked the same for GIR. Otherwise there is no consensus on what you do off the tee – Rory McIlroy finished T4 with an average drive length of 300 yards, Francesco Molinari finished T6 despite only going 276 yards off the peg on average. So focus on the second half of holes in your selections.

Matsuyama played the Par 3s in +1, and both the Par 4s and Par 5s in -12, and it’s quite telling that two of his rounds were bogey-free – for us, a mix of Birdie or Better Leaders and Bogey Avoidance is key this week.

Earlier in this piece we mentioned the obvious comparisons between TPC Kuala Lumpur and Sheshan: both Howarth & Nelson designs, both Seashore Paspalum, both birdie fests, and so it’s little wonder that Matsuyama finished second in Malaysia a week prior to his triumph here, while a whole bunch of players – Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey, Emiliano Grillo, Ryan Moore, Russell Knox, and Rafa Cabrera-Bello – recorded top-25s at both.

And finally, the green complexes are slightly different in design here and at Nine Bridges last week, but they are both Bentgrass surfaces planted in typically humid Asian conditions. A decent week with the putter at the CJ Cup might also be a handy marker.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WGC-HSBC Champions

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-HSBC Champions

*Please note that some players may not have registered enough events this early into the 2017-2018 season to have an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 69.8, GPFP: 84.30 Salary: $11,400)

It is hard to overlook Matsuyama this week given the margin of his victory here 12 months ago. He won by seven strokes and, for context, Alex Noren and Paul Casey in T12 were some 13 shots behind the winner!

The Japanese ace has successfully defended a title in the past as well at the Phoenix Open in 2016-17, and excellent repeat form at the same courses – Augusta springs to mind and his 5-7-11 string suggests he is one of those horses-for-courses types.

After winning the WGC Bridgestone and finishing T5 at the PGA Championship a week later back in August, Matsuyama tailed off towards the end of the campaign and had a FedEx Cup to forget.

But he was in fine fettle at the CIMB Classic a fortnight ago, finding a whopping 94.64% of fairways and ranking first for GIR at an excellent 86.11%. His putter was cold in Kuala Lumpur, but a switch to Bermuda should suit; he won twice on these surfaces in the 2016-17 season after all.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 1st
• Birdie Average – 3rd
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 7th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Marc Leishman (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 69.9, GPFP: 85.08 Salary: $9,900)

Once again, Marc Leishman showed at the CJ Cup last week exactly why he is set for a huge year in 2018.

His ultra-attacking style – the Aussie is a member of the ‘no laying up’ club – is the sort of risk-and-reward strategy that should help him win plenty more PGA TOUR titles, and he came pretty close just last week after losing out in that playoff to Justin Thomas.

The key was that Leishman ranked first for Putting Average, and that is very handy given that we’re back on Bentgrass this week again as well.

This occasionally tight off the tee test suits Leishman’s eye, and it’s no surprise to see he finished 11-9 in his last two visits here. He’s finished in the top-three in a trio of his last four starts, and there are fewer golfers on the planet hotter than the Australian right now.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 15th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 17th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 22nd

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Tony Finau (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 69.9, GPFP: 97.15 Salary: $7,700)

Regular readers of our previews are probably bored to tears of us singing the praises of Tony Finau, but we genuinely believe he could be the next young gun to take golf by the scruff of the neck.

The 28-year-old has spoken at length at how he has worked tirelessly to improve his short game, and that is starting to be recognized in his approach-based stats.

Finau is another who needs a bit of room off the tee or at least non-penal rough, and his wishes will be granted at Sheshan. Then he can let his short game do its work, before the trials and tribulations with the putter begin.

You do wonder how many titles Finau would already have to his name if he could putt better – he ranked 136th last season for SG: Putting, and remember this is a guy who made it all the way to the TOUR Championship!

Well, here’s the good news: he ranked fourth for Putting Average at the CJ Cup last week, so perhaps Finau’s short stick is just starting to warm up a little – that could not be better timed.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 5th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th
• Greens in Regulation – 17th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Thorbjorn Olesen (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 70.5, GPFP: 52.36Salary: $7,300)

Those on the European Tour have, to some extent, an advantage over their PGA TOUR peers this week. The Euro boys get to play in China three times a year in total – here, plus the Shenzhen International and the Volvo China Open – and some have a habit of playing rather nicely.

Thorbjorn Olesen is one such player: he’s bagged top-20s in his last five trips to the country. That includes T19 and T6 in this event, plus T15 at the Volvo and a pair of T8s in consecutive years at the Shenzhen. That is too regular to be considered a coincidence.

The Dane has been playing okay of late, and you wonder how much confidence his T10 at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational back in August gave him. That was his first real meeting with the big boys on Us soil for some time, and he was well up to the challenge.

Some decent efforts followed, and while T32 at the Italian Open last time out might not rock your world do note that he finished T6 for Putts Per Round.

Key Stats (European Tour):

• Greens in Regulation – 71%
• Putts Per GIR – 1.77
• European Tour wins: 5, including 2 in the past calendar year

Low-Tier Pick:

Haotong Li (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 70.8, GPFP:51.42 Salary: $7,100)

Enjoy these moments of being able to draft this young star at these sorts of prices!

Occasionally when home talents play in front of a passionate local support they can crumble under the weight of expectation, but so far in his young career Haotong Li seems to have thrived upon it. He won the Shenzhen International in 2016, and also finished T7 here in 2015, so clearly playing in China has a positive effect on him.

His formline does not make for all that appetizing reading, but Li seems to be a player for whom form comes and goes in a heartbeat: he showed absolutely zero Links form at the Irish and Scottish Opens, and then he went and finished fourth in the biggest Links test of them all at the British Open.

When drafting Li, just sit back and enjoy the ride.

Key Stats (European Tour):

• Greens in Regulation – 69.44%
• Putts Per GIR – 1.74
• Shot one of the lowest rounds in British Open history back in July

Sleeper Pick for the WGC-HSBC Champions

Ross Fisher (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 70.1, GPFP: 59.45 Salary: $8,400)

This isn’t exactly a ‘sleeper’ pick at $8,400, but what we do know is that we can expect Fisher to be low-owned this week given that he’s in the same kind of price bracket as Patrick Reed and Daniel Berger.

But Fisher is playing like an absolute dream at the moment, and he is certainly worth consideration instead of those more established names.

At some stage he has held the clubhouse lead in both of the last two European Tour events, eventually finishing second in both the Italian Open and Alfred Dunhill Links. Seven of his last eight rounds have been in the 60s, with five of those at 67 or lower.

This is all before mentioning the Brit’s China form: his record here reads 6-3, and otherwise he’s finished 6-3-16 in his last trio of visits to the country to take part in the Shenzhen and China Open!

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 74.37%
• Putts Per GIR – 1.79
• European Tour Wins – 5

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WGC-HSBC Champions

Bill Haas (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 70.5, GPFP: 71.96 Salary: $7,300)

Bill Haas is in danger of becoming the forgotten man on the PGA TOUR, and that would be a shame for a player who is capable of some outstanding strokeplay on his day.

The six-time PGA TOUR winner’s form is up and down at the best of times, and the main 2017 season was generally one to forget for the dome-headed one.

But he played really nicely to finish T10 at the Dell Technologies late in the campaign, and followed up with T17 at the Safeway Open where a round of 65 really caught the eye.

Haas finally cracked Sheshan International in his last trip, finishing T4 here last year, and he will be hoping for something similar this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green: 5th
• Approaches from 50-125 Yards: 24th
• Greens in Regulation: 27th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

This Week’s Sample Lineup

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”14.29%” bar_text=”3 out of 21 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”19.05%” bar_text=”4 out of 21 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”47.62%” bar_text=”10 out of 21 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”33.33%” bar_text=”1 out of 3 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”66.67%” bar_text=”2 out of 2 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”85.71″ bar_text=”18 out of 21 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the WGC-HSBC Champions with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram