Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – OHL Classic at Mayakoba
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 OHL Classic at Mayakoba
2017 OHL Classic at Mayakoba Fantasy Preview
Jet lag….what jet lag!? Patrick Cantlay did his best Superman impression to fight off the effects of a 14-hour flight from Shanghai to Las Vegas, not to mention the 16-hour time zone difference, to clinch the first PGA TOUR title of his career at last week’s Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.
Cantlay, widely regarded as one of the hottest young talents around, has done remarkably well to come back from a severe back injury suffered in a car crash, and after an eye-catching return in 2017 he finally cashed in with a playoff victory over Alex Cejka and Whee Kim at TPC Summerlin.
The 25-year-old had been in contention since the opening round but largely went under the radar as young guns JJ Spaun and Beau Hossler went toe-to-toe. The former almost went wire-to-wire – not bad for a 250/1 shot with the sportsbooks – but a slack Sunday allowed Cantlay to book his place in the playoff against fast-finishing Cejka and Kim.
And the phenom made no mistake on the second extra hole to claim what is surely the first of many Tour wins to come.
The theme this week is desert golf once again as we slip south of the border to Mexico for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba, hosted by El Camaleon GC in the beautiful resort of Playa Del Carmen.
It was here that Pat Perez reinvigorated his career with his first PGA TOUR victory in seven years, and that came after an eight-month layoff following shoulder surgery. It was an emotional win for Perez, who presumably felt like his career was coming to an end following serious injury and whose Mexican heritage perhaps made him more fired up than most to succeed.
At the OHL Classic we are heading into the final straight of 2017, with just the RSM Classic, Hero World Challenge and the QBE Shootout left to play this year.
Rickie Fowler of the United States plays his shot from the third tee…
Rickie Fowler of the United States plays his shot from the third tee during the final round of the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club on September 24, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Shriners Hospital for Children Open
Last week we took a high flyer on Webb Simpson who fell short at T20 in what was deemed the biggest crapshoot fantasy golf event of the season. January can’t come soon enough but in the meantime, we’re still making 90% of the cut and we cashed in on one winner picked already this fall season.
This week’s GPFP has seven players at +90 or higher. Don’t forget to check this tool to compare lower tier players to find a “Cantlay” or another diamond in the rough.
Patrick Cantlay poses with the winner’s trophy after winning the…
Patrick Cantlay poses with the winner’s trophy after winning the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open at the TPC Summerlin on November 5, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
2017 OHL Classic at Mayakoba Field
Perez returns to defend his crown a matter of weeks after winning the CIMB Classic in Malaysia, but it is the identity of two OHL debutants that catches the eye.
Rickie Fowler and Patrick Reed will head to El Camaleon, and will be joined by Presidents Cup teammates Kevin Chappell and Charley Hoffman and adversaries Si-Woo Kim, Jhonattan Vegas, Emiliano Grillo, and Anirbhan Lahiri.
Former champions Graeme McDowell and Harris English return, as do the players who rounded out last year’s 1-2-3 in Gary Woodland and Russell Knox.
Cantlay has decided upon a well-earned rest after his jet-setting exploits but Chesson Hadley, with five top-5 finishes in his last six starts, will be looking to extend his fine recent form.
Patrick Reed of the United States and caddie Kessler Karain line up a…
Patrick Reed of the United States and caddie Kessler Karain line up a putt on the 18th green during the second round of the WGC – HSBC Champions at Sheshan International Golf Club on October 27, 2017… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
Conditions this week will be similar to that experienced during the Shriners last time out, although the players will be hoping that the winds are not as severe as those in Las Vegas!
El Camaleon is one of the few sub-7000 yard courses on tour weighing in at 6,987 yards for its Par 71 mark. Designed by Greg Norman, the track is described as almost Links-style in nature, with sea-front stretches and sandy areas buffeted by occasional high winds.
It’s a short course but not one that is routinely overpowered. The last three OHL winners – Perez, Charley Hoffman, and Graeme McDowell – are all experienced pros who can shape their shots both ways, so effective course management is clearly a bonus around El Camaleon. Indeed, eight of the last ten champions in this event have been in their 30s, with an average of around the 38 mark. Expect the old guard to show the young guns some new tricks in Mexico!
The whole course is Seashore Paspalum in construction, which is the typical grass of choice in the central/southern hemisphere, with the greens running at a slightly stodgy 10 on the stimpmeter.
The last four winning scores at El Camaleon have been -21, -18, -17, and -21, so this is a scoreable course, although it is worth noting that only the last four editions of this tournament have enjoyed full PGA TOUR status (before it was an alternate event alongside the WGC Matchplay) and in this current November slot.
The action unfolds with two tricky Par 4s that played over-par last year, with greens protected by mangroves and run-off areas. But holes three and four are short Par 4 and 3 respectively that both witnessed more birdies than bogeys in 2016.
The theme of course management is summed up by the Par 5 fifth. It played comfortably under par last year but no eagles were made; this is a scoreable hole but only for players who can connect three decent strokes to find the green on time.
Six is an easy enough Par 4, while the Par 5 seventh saw almost as many birdies as pars last year (41% to 52%). The front nine closes with a 151-yard Par 3 that features one of the smallest greens on the course, while par on the ninth (uphill 462-yard Par 4) is a decent return.
Pin location is key on the Par 3 tenth – a front pin makes life very difficult for the players, while the eleventh and twelfth are Par 4s that require accurate approach shots into raised greens.
The thirteenth is the final Par 5 and one that presents ample birdie opportunities, before the fourteenth beckons; arguably the toughest on the course. A right-to-left tee shot is required before an approach into an elevated green that is protected by large bunkers and run-off zones. In 2016 just 11% of attempts ended in birdie and 6% ended in double-bogey or worse, which speaks volumes.
The fifteenth offers stunning views of the Caribbean Sea and an easy-enough Par 3 to tackle, while the sixteenth is a long Par 4 at 485 yards that at least is aided by a wide fairway and – typically – a prevailing wind.
Seventeen and eighteen are both Par 4s and both genuine birdie chances; although those in contention come Sunday evening will be mindful of hooking their tee shot into the canal which runs parallel to the left side of the fairway.
Graeme McDowell of Northern Ireland plays his first shot on the 5th…
Graeme McDowell of Northern Ireland plays his first shot on the 5th hole during the second round of the OHL Classic at the Mayakoba El Camaleon Golf Club on November 13, 2015 in Playa del Carmen,… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Playa del Carmen, Mexico
It’s an unusually mixed week weather-wise in the usually sumptuous Playa Del Carmen, with rain around on the final three days – according to the early forecast.
Thursday should be okay with sunny spells, the lightest of winds and temperatures up to 86 degrees, but it all takes a turn for the worst from there.
The forecast is suggesting scattered showers for Friday through to Sunday, which isn’t particularly descriptive but suggests that rain is around. These look likely to sweep in during the afternoon on all three days, with those on Saturday described as ‘thundery’.
Happily, wind speeds are fairly low at a predicted high of 10 mph, and if conditions are playing soft then we can expect a winning mark of -20 or better, you would think.
Last Year’s Results from the OHL Classic at Mayakoba
It was a late surge from Perez that ultimately secured him the title 12 months ago; most noticeably his third round of 62, which saw him climb eleven places up the leaderboard from T11 to T2.
A final round of 67, capped by five birdies in his opening eight holes, saw Perez usurp 54-hole leader Gary Woodland to take the spoils.
Woodland had led at the three-quarter mark ahead of Perez, Scott Piercy, and Webb Simpson, which continues that thirty-something narrative of those who perform well at El Camaleon, and rounds of 64-65-66 were compounded by a Sunday meltdown, of sorts, of just 70.
The hottest starter in a sultry week in Mexico was Chris Kirk, who led at the close of day one following an -8 round of 63.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4jWR43nGcs[/embedyt]
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba this Week
It’s a strong slate of DFS games across the board this week, and backed by a tournament that feels like it can be attacked by those following in the correct angles, it’s worth investing a little more in the OHL Classic this week.
- PGA $60k Fore: Mind you, if you are on a tight budget then this is still a decent contest to enter. A $4 buy-in offers players a chance to win the $5k top prize, with the top 15% of players doubling their stake as a minimum.
- PGA $100k Dogleg: For those with a bit more cash in their pockets, this $10k top prize contest is worthy of a second look. The top 175 players will at least treble their stake!
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba
It was something of a surprise when Perez won this event 12 months ago given that he hadn’t gotten his hands on a trophy since the Bob Hope Classic in 2009, but the signs were arguably there when he warmed up with a T7 return at the Shriners just a week prior.
And another former OHL Classic champion, Charley Hoffman, has delivered some performances at Summerlin through the years, while 2012 winner John Huh is a Las Vegas specialist, so perhaps a key angle is this apparent Shriners-OHL correlation.
Open your mind to a possible Links/coastal correlation as well, with Northern Ireland’s Graeme McDowell winning here in 2015 and Scotland’s Russell Knox finishing inside the top-three in his last pair of visits.
A third potential link would be to the CIMB Classic. There is still some recency to the results there (the event was played in mid-October), the greens there are Seashore Paspalum and, of course, Perez is now the defending champion of both events.
The stats suggest there are different ways to win here, although we should note at this point that because the OHL takes place outside of the USA the PGA TOUR’s data merchants don’t take their big shiny computers with them, meaning no Strokes Gained stats….
Last year Perez was long but fairly inaccurate off the tee, ranking 19th for Driving Distance and just 49th for Accuracy (64% of fairways found), whereas McDowell was the opposite in 2015: 16th for Accuracy, 56th for Distance.
Naturally finding greens in regulation is important: six of the top-10 in the GIR rankings would go on to finish inside the top-10 on the leaderboard.
And one attribute that Perez and McDowell both shared in their winning week was a hot putter; they ranked third and fourth respectively for Putts per Round. That, in all probability, is a key factor this week: proven experience in putting well on Paspalum.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the OHL Classic at Mayakoba
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the OHL Classic at Mayakoba
*Please note that some players may not have registered enough events this early into the 2017-2018 season to have an accurate GPFP.
Top Tier Pick #1:
Pat Perez (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 70.5, GPFP: 81.73 Salary: $11,300)
The most high-profile players in the field are Rickie Fowler and Patrick Reed, and a strong case can be made for either.
Fowler enjoys this sort of golf – he’s performed very nicely at the Phoenix Open on countless occasions, and is another who thrives in windy, Links-style set-ups.
The PGA TOUR’s new directive that a player must add a new event to their schedule each year coincides with Fowler’s decision to stop by the lively resort of Playa del Carmen, not a million miles from Cancun. For fear of a complete horror-show, we’re happy to swerve Fowler for that reason.
And what about Reed? Playing good golf for a while now, there’s every chance that Reed can contend here, but look at his individual strokeplay record without Team USA based heroics clouding your judgement: only four top-10 finishes in 2017 is simply not good enough.
So we’re going to side with the more prolific Pat Perez, who has taken the spoils in the OHL Classic and our correlating CIMB Classic.
That’s a handy angle in as putting on Paspalum is a unique skill – something Fowler and Reed will have to learn ‘on the job’, and being born and bred in Arizona helps Perez in breezy, desert-based conditions.
His T5 finish at the CJ Cup ensures Perez defends his title with a hot hand, and as we’ve seen in the past year it is tough – but by no means impossible – to retain a trophy.
Key Stats (2017):
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 27th
- SG: Putting – 37th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 49th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Gary Woodland (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 70.6, GPFP: 71.49 Salary: $9,400)
After 54 holes in Las Vegas, Gary Woodland was very nicely poised in T4 – just four strokes behind the leading pair. It didn’t quite pan out from there as he faded to T18, but with the strong winds a late crumble was a probability, rather than a possibility.
In rather more benign conditions, he should be able to pick his way around El Camaleon at will; as he did 12 months ago when, in truth, he really ought to have claimed the third PGA TOUR title of his career.
Woodland opened with a 66 at the CIMB Classic and so far in the wraparound season ranks sixth for SG: Approach and ninth for SG: Putting – a heady blend as he looks to right the wrongs of a year ago.
Key Stats (2017):
- Greens in Regulation – 11th
- SG: Approach the Green – 15th
- SG: Tee to Green – 17th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Anirban Lahiri (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 71.0, GPFP: 61.73 Salary: $8,100)
Having grown up on the sub-continent, it’s no surprise to note that Anirban Lahiri is familiar with the test provided by playing on Seashore Paspalum, and his record at the CIMB Classic (T10 in 2017, T3 in 2016) suggests it’s an assignment he has passed with flying colors.
Indeed, Lahiri has been putting well all season – he ranks eleventh for his three wraparound events, so if he could just get that tee-to-green game firing….
Maybe it’s not far away. The Indian finished T10 at the CIMB and T5 at the CJ Cup, and while his T51 return on Sunday looks alarming remember he was T29 after 54 holes – and just two strokes off the top-10.
Lahiri may just be inspired by his friend Shiv Kapur, who won on the Asian Tour at the weekend, and it’s about time this talented player won in America given the number of times he has triumphed worldwide.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 14th
- SG: Off the Tee – 65th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 87th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Stewart Cink (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 70.7, GPFP: 63.00 Salary: $7,700)
The elder statesmen of the game have typically thrived at El Camaleon, and Stewart Cink boasts all of the credentials we would look for in a sleeper winner.
A quick check of his stats reveals that Cink has putted well on Paspalum at both the OHL Classic of 2016 plus the CIMB Classic that took place a few weeks ago, and as former Scottish Open champion born in Alabama any strong winds won’t faze the 44-year-old.
The form is good too, with T12 and T27 finishes in the Dell Technologies and BMW Championships at the tail-end of last season, plus T13 at the CIMB Classic in October.
Key Stats (2017):
- SG: Approach – 4th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 38th
- SG: Putting – 41st
Low-Tier Pick:
Brian Stuard (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 71.4, GPFP: 53.60 Salary: $7,400)
Stuard’s excellent start to the wraparound season has been powered by an improved iron game, which has witnessed him rank top 40 on tour for both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach.
He finished T4 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and was going along nicely at Shriners too; sitting pretty in T10 with a round to play – just two shots shy of the top five.
But the winds got up to almost Biblical proportions on Sunday afternoon, and that was always likely to prove devastating for one of the shortest hitters on tour – hence his lowly finish.
But we’re more than happy to keep the faith in a player with two runners-up finishes to his name at El Camaleon.
Key Stats (2017):
- Driving Accuracy – 5th
- Approaches from 50-125 Yards – 32nd
- SG: Approach – 64th
Sleeper Pick for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba
Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 71.5, GPFP: 50.80 Salary: $7,600)
We can afford to have some Latin-American firepower on board this week, and we’re happy to have Grillo on-side given his history of putting well on Paspalum.
T10 here in 2016, the Argentine has a top-20 to his name at the CIMB Classic as well, and most eye-catchingly he ranks seventh on tour for SG: Putting for the wraparound season.
Grillo’s overall tee-to-green game will need to improve if he is to win in Mexico, but the basic building blocks are there: he ranks 15th for Total Driving, and has found 73% of greens in regulation so far this season.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 13th
- Greens in Regulation – 14th
- SG: Approach-the-Green – 27th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 72.3, GPFP: 35.87 Salary: $7,100)
It’s leap of faith time now with Abraham Ancer, a young American of Mexican heritage who sat T4 in this tournament at the halfway stage 12 months ago.
Since then Ancer has finished fourth on the Web.com Tour money list, which highlights that he is a quality, consistent performer.
He’s not shown his best on the PGA TOUR as yet – hence his 300/1 price – but it’s not all doom and gloom: he ranks 24th for SG: Approach, so if his putter warms up, and it may just do on this Paspalum surface, then who knows what might happen.
Key Stats (2017 Web.com):
- Putting Average: 14th
- Total Driving: 21st
- All Around Ranking: 24th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
This Week’s Sample Lineup
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
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