Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The Honda Classic
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Honda Classic
2018 Honda Classic Fantasy Preview
If there is such a thing as ‘horses for courses’, then once again Bubba Watson proved himself to be the ultimate Riviera thoroughbred with victory in the Genesis Open on Sunday.
It was Bubba’s third triumph at the famous course, and bizarrely continued his sequence of winning here in even-number years: this 2018 win following victories in 2014 and 2016. Get him locked in for 2020 now!
He finally got over the line on a pulsating Sunday when it appeared as nobody wanted to take the W. Bubba, Kevin Na, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay and our low-tier pick, Ryan Moore, all flirted with the lead, but it was Bubba’s chip-in from the sand at fourteen that ultimately proved the difference.
Last time Bubba won at Riviera he went on to claim the green jacket in The Masters just a couple of weeks later; no wonder his odds to land a third title at Augusta have been slashed by the sportsbooks overnight.
We wave goodbye to the PGA TOUR’s California Swing and say hello to Watson’s home state of Florida: the Tour stops here for this week’s event, the Honda Classic, as well as the Valspar Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Next week’s WGC Mexico is the meat in the Sunshine State sandwich.
Riviera was a tough test for the players and so too will this week’s venue, PGA National, be. These tricky assignments really whet the appetite for The Masters, which is now just six weeks away!
Rickie Fowler watches his tee shot on the third hole during the final…
Rickie Fowler watches his tee shot on the third hole during the final round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on February 4, 2018 in Scottsdale, Arizona. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Genesis Open
Before we talk about our win on the Euro Tour let’s first recap the Genesis:
Our shining star was Ryan Moore as our ‘Low Tier’ pick coming in at $6,900. Although he finished T9, Moore ended the week with 17 birdies and 2 eagles, but just couldn’t the job done Sunday after carding 5 bogeys. His low salary was enough room to get DJ on the roster, who finished T16 on the week.
Bubba Watson poses with the trophy after winning the Genesis Open at…
Bubba Watson poses with the trophy after winning the Genesis Open at Riviera Country Club on February 18, 2018 in Pacific Palisades, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
On the European TOUR, our top must-have pick of the week was Joost Luiten. Joost defeated the rest of the field by two strokes, including our 2nd tier pick Jorge Campillo who just missed it with a T4 finish. With Beef in the mix at T12, our Euro picks were spot on last week.
2018 Honda Classic Field
There is a genuine global feel to the field this week, with a number of European Tour pros coming to the US to get some tee time in ahead of the WGC event in Mexico next week.
So while Justin Thomas and Rickie Fowler take the headlines, watch out for a strong European contingent in Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Alex Noren and plenty more. Keep an eye out for Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Dylan Frittelli too: these guys have been playing excellent golf of late, and both are making a rare sojourn Stateside here.
Gary Woodland, the Phoenix Open champion, will look forward to returning to a venue where he has two top-tens to his name, although the likes of Patrick Reed, Kevin Kisner, Brian Harman and Webb Simpson will be looking to improve on some pretty dismal form at PGA National, by their own high standards.
Former Honda Classic champions Adam Scott and Russell Henley are also in town, while Brandt Snedeker, Louis Oosthuizen and Ian Poulter will be looking to rediscover their best form ahead of the approaching ‘major season.’
Tiger Woods lines up a putt on the 12th green during the second round…
Tiger Woods lines up a putt on the 12th green during the second round of the Genesis Open at Riviera Country Club on February 16, 2018 in Pacific Palisades, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
-12, -9, -6, -8 and -9: those have been the last five winning scores in this event, and that offers a key insight into the complexities supplied by PGA National.
The modus operandi of this stretch when built was specifically to be a host venue for majors, a feat it accomplished when hosting the 1987 PGA Championship and, while not a major in name, the Ryder Cup in 1983.
Originally designed by George and Tom Fazio, Jack Nicklaus was brought in for a 1990 redesign that created the infamous ‘Bear Trap’ of holes from 15-17. This stretch has accounted for 33% of all double bogeys and 38% of triples or worst since the tournament’s inception!
The fifteenth is a Par 3 that offers players a devilishly small landing area. Bunkers left, water right, an undulating green will roll-off areas….this is the stuff of nightmares for anyone with one hand on the trophy heading down the final straight.
The sixteenth is a nightmarish Par 4 which witnessed 20% of attempts ending in bogey or worse 12 months ago. It doglegs to the right at an angle of almost 90 degrees, with water lining the right-hand side and a lay-up area to the left for the faint-hearted: mind you, that then requires a 220-yard approach over the water and into the wind!
Seventeen features one of the smallest greens on the PGA TOUR – just 30 ft wide – and is flanked by water and sand. This really is a boom-or-bust hole, with 25% of attempts ending in bogey or worse last year.
Measuring 7,158 yards for its Par 70, PGA National is a tough test of hitting greens and sinking some putts: note that we switch back to Bermuda this week after a good couple pf outings on Poa Annua and Bentgrass lately.
Oddly, there have been only four American winners of this event since it switched to PGA National in 2007, with a bizarre mix of major champions (Rory McIlroy, Padraig Harrington, Adam Scott, Y.E Yang) and journeymen (Camilo Villegas, Michael Thompson) taking the spoils.
A sign displays the Bear Trap during the first round of The Honda…
A sign displays the Bear Trap during the first round of The Honda Classic at PGA National Resort and Spa on February 27, 2014 in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Palm Beach Gardens, FL
The forecast in the run-up to Thursday’s first tee is mixed, with some isolated thunderstorms predicted on Tuesday. However, a nice sunny day on Wednesday should dry up any lingering moisture.
Thursday and Friday are both set to be sunny and bright but windy: gusts of up to 16 mph are forecast. That will bring the water hazards into play alright!
Saturday’s forecast implies a ‘chance of showers,’ without really going into detail about when and how heavy, while Sunday should again be sunny with the wind mellowing out to around 10 mph.
Last Year’s Results from The Honda Classic
Rickie Fowler secured an emotional victory on home soil that was rather overdue.
Hailing less than 45 minutes from PGA National, there is naturally a lot of pressure on Fowler to succeed every time he tees it up in this neck of the woods, and he managed to get over the line despite his now traditional Sunday meltdown.
The 2017 edition of this event was neatly poised at the halfway mark, with Ryan Palmer and Wes Bryan locked at the top of the leaderboard on -9. Fowler was primed, menacingly, on -8.
And it was moving day where the champion would make his, erm, move. Posting a 65 while all else around him struggled, Fowler entered the final day four shots clear of the field on -13.
It wouldn’t be Sunday without a Fowler wobble, and the 29-year-old looked to be heading for a trademark collapse when playing the front nine in +2, which included a dip in the water at six; opening the door for those just below him on the leaderboard.
But from nowhere his putter got hot, draining 40ft and 25ft chances to make birdie on twelve and thirteen, and ultimately winning out right there. Even a bogey-bogey finish couldn’t prevent Fowler from wrapping up a four-shot win over Gary Woodland and Morgan Hoffmann, with six players locked at T4.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWc5SwtMekY[/embedyt]
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Honda Classic this Week
There’s a comprehensive slate of contests to enjoy this week at the Honda Classic, with gamers of all budgets offered something to suit their tastes.
- PGA $500k Dogleg: The big bucks are located in this $33 buy-in contest, where a top prize of a rather handsome $100k awaits the winner!
- PGA $300k Fore: If you are looking for a cheap, low variance contest then this should fit the bill. A $4 buy-in awaits players with a 20-entry max rule imposed, and the winner will trouser a cool $25k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Honda Classic
There are some clear and obvious correlations that we simply have to follow in this week when drafting our roster.
The first is that major winners have also doubled up as Honda Classic champions. Scott, McIlroy, Harrington, Yang and Els have all won at PGA National, while Garcia, Woods and Ogilvy are all major holders who have finished second at this very stretch. Clearly, the complexity of the test lends itself to those players who are willing to grind it out.
Clearly, there is an obvious correlation of wind specialists getting into the mix here as well. Fowler is a former Scottish Open champion on the Links, and the ability of all of those major champions mentioned above in the wind cannot be questioned.
Add into the mix Russell Henley and Mark Wilson, who have won both the Honda Classic and the notoriously blowy Sony Open (as has Ernie Els). Ryan Palmer lost in a play-off here in 2014 and was the 54-hole leader 12 months ago….he too is a former Sony Open champion.
As far as the actual playing profile is concerned, there isn’t any clear guidance from the rollcall of former winners at PGA National. Guys like Fowler, McIlroy and Scott are long off the tee, but then 2015 champion Padraig Harrington is one of the shortest hitters in the modern game.
It just feels like a course where neat and tidy ball striking comes to the fore, and an ability to make the most of the two Par 5s – Fowler’s eight attempts ended up with an aggregate score of -6 last year – is priceless. Perhaps longer hitters, or those who can approach well from 200+ yards, should be on the radar.
In contrast, an ability to avoid mistakes is key as well. In his first 54 holes last year Fowler made just three bogeys; that is exceptional when you consider the complexity of PGA National and the strength of the prevailing wind. Bogey Avoidance is a stat of some relevance this week.
And finally, a comfortability with putting on Bermuda is essential. It was the flat-stick which came to Fowler’s aid 12 months ago, and with these greens rolling pretty quickly at around 12 on the stimp a decent couple of days with putter in hand could prove to be the difference between success and failure.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Honda Classic
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Honda Classic
*Please note that some players may not have registered enough events this early into the 2017-2018 season to have an accurate GPFP.
Top Tier Pick #1:
Rickie Fowler (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 68.3, GPFP: 76.74 Salary: $11,700)
There is a risk each and every time we draft Rickie Fowler. We know that we will get a good run for our money, but we also know that there is every chance he will have a meltdown should he get into contention on Sunday.
The temptation to draft Justin Thomas is obvious: here is a prolific winner, a major champion and somebody who has enjoyed countless successes in Hawaii and other windy climes.
But JT has missed the cut in two of his three visits to PGA National, and so by that token there is arguably more risk attached to him than Fowler this week.
As mentioned, this is Rickie’s home tournament: he lives in nearby Jupiter, Florida. That can be to the detriment of some players who, enjoying ‘home comforts,’ tend to throw in a rather tepid effort as a result.
But Fowler’s formline at PGA National – 1-6-41-24-13-7 – suggests the opposite is true in his case. You only have to look at the clinch putts he made as the finishing line approached, and his passionate reaction, to know how much it meant to him to finally end a 14-month trophy drought in front of his friends and family.
Could 2018 be Fowler’s year? His friends, Spieth, Thomas and co, are starting to leave him in the shade a bit, and he will be desperate to get his hands on more silverware and establish himself as a premium force in world golf. That journey could well start this week.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 1st
- SG: Around-the-Green – 3rd
- SG: Putting – 18th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Gary Woodland (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 69.7, GPFP: 102.38 Salary: $9,700)
Will his win at the Phoenix Open be the platform upon which Gary Woodland propels himself into the upper echelons of the game? Only time will tell on that, but he certainly has the tools to succeed in events like this.
To confirm how well he has been playing all season – not just with a nod to his win in Arizona – Woodland ranks inside the top-20 for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Tee-to-Green, Approach and Putting, and that – quite obviously – is a fine recipe for success.
Five top-20s in his last seven strokeplay starts is another guide of how well equipped he is at present, and back on his preferred Bermuda surfaces there is absolutely no reason why Woodland can’t thrive.
T7 at Waialae earlier in the season and second here 12 months ago, how many more omens do we need to draft him?
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 2nd
- SG: Putting – 5th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 13th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Russell Henley (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 71.1, GPFP: 45.47 Salary: $7,700)
Russell Henley boasts the dual-pronged attack of being a winner at PGA National and a former Sony Open champion too, so immediately he leaps high up on our shortlist.
His chances are given extra weight by just how well he played at Pebble Beach last time out, finishing T15 and ranking thirteenth for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Henley is a member of a pretty exclusive club: he has recorded top-20 finishes in each of the four majors on rotation, and that confirms he can be trusted to perform well even when the conditions are less than perfect for birdie-making.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 27th
- Greens in Regulation – 45th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 76th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Graeme McDowell (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 71.1, GPFP: 41.36 Salary: $7,300)
It has to be said that Graeme McDowell’s excellent performance at Riviera came as something of a surprise: the Irishman had missed his previous four cuts worldwide.
It was a welcome and timely return to form, because ‘G-MAC’ simply loves playing his golf at PGA National.
A formline of 14-5-MC-46-9-9-6 is as good as anybody here in the past decade, and heading to Palm Beach in some form you would like to think he can deliver something equally as appetizing this week.
McDowell co-led after 36 holes of the Genesis Open, and ranked seventh for SG: Tee-to-Green. Pleasing signs indeed for the former US Open champion.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 19th
- SG: Putting – 35th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 38th
Low-Tier Pick:
Talor Gooch (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 70.7, GPFP: 47.31 Salary: $7,000)
A young Web.com Tour graduate that is just starting to revel in the step up to senior level is Talor Gooch, whose approach play really is excellent.
There are a pair of top-20s to his name that interest us: T18 at the Sony Open, as we know Waialae form is a handy indicator, as well as T20 at the Genesis Open; Riviera is probably one of the toughest courses he has ever experienced!
He is slightly errant off the tee, which is a concern, but if he can keep his ball out of the water then Gooch’s excellent scrambling and approach play should set up opportunities to grind out a good score.
PGA National isn’t the sole preserve of the old timers, as we might assume, so perhaps Gooch can add another welcome top-20 to his collection this week.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 36th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 72nd
- SG: Approach – 76th
Sleeper Pick for The Honda Classic
Adam Scott (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 72.2, GPFP: 38.72 Salary: $7,700)
Many folks will probably look at Adam Scott’s T53 finish at the Genesis Open and completely disregard his chances of performing strongly this week.
But it would be hasty to swerve the Australian based on what was an outing that was more to shake off the rust than to prove anything of substance, and besides which he ranked T3 for Greens in Regulation at a Riviera course that is far from easy to tame; a handy sign indeed.
Scott’s downfall was his putting, as it has often been since his belly-putter was outlawed, but it is worth noting that he won this tournament in 2016 with his traditional flat-stick in hand.
T14 a year later and T12 in 2014 suggests a fondness for this layout, and ranked 58th in the OWGR the Aussie will know that a decent showing this week could earn his spot in the lucrative WGC Mexico next week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach –5th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 14th
- Greens in Regulation – 16th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Honda Classic
Retief Goosen (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 70.7, GPFP: 46.45 Salary: $7,100)
At the age of 49, Retief Goosen could be forgiven for seeing out his dotage and enjoying the laid-back stylings of the Champions Tour, but so far this season he has shown an aptitude for mixing it with the young bucks too.
A decent little run of form culminated in a T12 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, and while he missed the cut at the Phoenix Open a week later the South African was back on the money: opening up with a round of 68 at Riviera.
We know that Goosen will find plenty of fairways and hit plenty of greens in regulation, and PGA National is ideally suited to anyone who has prospered in a US Open….as Goosen has, twice.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach: 60th
- Scoring Average: 68th
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 85th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
This Week’s Sample Lineups
With Rickie
Without Rickie
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
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