Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2018 Houston Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2018 Houston Open

2018 Houston Open Fantasy Preview

Confirmation, if any was required, that Bubba Watson is a genuine contender for the Green Jacket next week was confirmed at the WGC Match Play, where the two-time Masters champion won six of his seven matches played to run out a comfortable winner of his second WGC title.

Once again, the tournament has been met with criticism for its format. Match play is match play – it is what it is – but for Branden Grace, as one example, to play his three pool games in a combined -14 and still not make it to the knockout phase of the competition suggests that something, somewhere is wrong with the set-up.

And then on Sunday we had the mother of all anti-climaxes as Kevin Kisner, who played 19 grueling and nerve-shredding holes before overcoming Alex Noren in the semi-final, simply had no gas left in the tank for the final and Bubba cruised to five-up in as many holes. There was simply no way back for Kiz from there.

Bubba Watson of the United States celebrates with the Walter Hagen…

Bubba Watson of the United States celebrates with the Walter Hagen Cup after winning the World Golf Championships-Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 25, 2018 in Austin, Texas. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Not that Bubba was complaining, and nor should we take anything away from his achievement. His shot-shaping off the tee was quite extraordinary once more, and now he is making putts again he is one of the most dangerous players on the planet.

The countdown to The Masters is reaching boiling point, and we have one more engagement prior to the battle for the green jacket in Georgia. Intriguingly, the Golf Club of Houston – the home of this week’s Houston Open – is set-up in a way that imitates Augusta National, so those in the field this week should have a decent guide ahead of the year’s first major.

Who will claim the bragging rights ahead of The Masters?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Bubba is back! Now with two wins after being mostly absent the better part of the last two seasons, it seems as though the lefty has regained some swagger switching back to Pro V1 golf balls.

What a wild week in Austin it was with lots of big defeats coming early we saw the big guns Dustin Johnson being shutout and Rory McIlroy exiting early. Needless to say, plenty of brackets were busted early with not many seeing a Watson/Kisner finale.

In the end we had four picks make it to the sweet sixteen before they were sent packing (or to Houston). Match play is always a challenge and we welcome the return of more traditional fantasy formats this week.

Bubba Watson of the United States celebrates on the 12th green after…

Bubba Watson of the United States celebrates on the 12th green after defeating Kevin Kisner of the United States 7&6 to win during the final round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Match Play at… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

2018 Houston Open Field

There are six players inside the world’s top 20 who will be in town here, and a total of 16 who have already qualified for Augusta come what may.

Jordan Spieth, who needs to find some form with the flat stick pronto if he is to contend for the green jacket once more, headlines a field in Houston which also contains the in-form Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson and Matt Kuchar, while this week’s wildcard takes the form of Shubhankar Sharma, the two-time European Tour winner this season alone who held the 54-hole lead at the WGC Mexico just a month or so ago.

Otherwise, there is a place at The Masters up for grabs for anyone who can win this week, and that’s a platform from which defending champion Russell Henley, Jim Herman, Matt Jones and D.A. Points have all taken to Augusta in recent years.

That ‘back door’ approach will see a number of players not regularly seen in PGA TOUR events, including Lee Westwood, Ernie Els, Martin Kaymer and Steve Stricker, try to book their spot at Augusta this week.

Rickie Fowler walks onto the 13th green during the final round at the…

Rickie Fowler walks onto the 13th green during the final round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented By MasterCard at Bay Hill Club and Lodge on March 18, 2018 in Orlando, Florida. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

As mentioned, the Houston Open has been cherry-picked to take place a week prior to The Masters thanks to the ability of the host venue, the Golf Club of Houston, to be set-up in a way that closely resembles Augusta National.

The most obvious point of reference for that is the greens, which are Bermuda and lightning fast – running up to 13 on the stimpmeter. If the players can get the job done on the dancefloor in Houston then they will take plenty of confidence to Augusta, that’s for sure.

Measuring 7,441 yards for its Par 72, the GC of Houston has water in play on nine holes, but the fairways are wide and fairly generous, with the rough less penal than can be expected in Georgia. Some of the holes are tree-lined too, which naturally benefits the straight hitters.

The layout is designed by Rees Jones, who is famous for his work on Torrey Pines South, East Lake, Baltusrol and Bellerive, the host of this year’s PGA Championship.

Wide angle view from the green on the 14th hole during the Shell…

Wide angle view from the green on the 14th hole during the Shell Houston Open on April 01 at the Golf Club of Houston in Humble, TX. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Houston, TX

The players can expect a typically Texan week weather-wise, although the thunderstorms which are predicted on Wednesday come be worth further investigation.

The course will naturally play hard and fast in Houston given that the sun bakes the layout day in, day out, but thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday and they could – assuming the rain that joins them is heavy – soften the course up in time for Thursday’s early starters.

From Thursday onwards it is typical Texan sunshine, with a top temperature of 82 degrees on Sunday.

Last Year’s Results from the Houston Open

The history books tells us that Russell Henley won the 2017 Houston Open, but really it’s an event that will be ingrained in the memory of Sung Kang for completely different reasons.

The Korean held a commanding six-shot lead at the halfway stage 12 months ago, and even though that was sliced to three after 54-holes the 30-year-old should really have been eyeing a maiden PGA TOUR title.

But he dithered on Sunday, posting a level-par 72, and when opportunity knocks you’ve got to go and answer: and that’s exactly what Russell Henley did.

He made an incredible ten birdies in his final round to card a 65 – which featured a double bogey as well – as he cantered past the field to win by three shots from Kang in second and four from Rickie Fowler and Luke List, who were tied in third.

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPrIUZuAPhk[/embedyt]

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Houston Open this Week

You may have already taken a sneaky peak at DraftKings’ slate of contests for The Masters; while the full slate is still to be confirmed, it is a rather mouth-watering list including the return of Fantasy Millionaire….

With that in mind, we should really try and trouser a big prize or two this week!

• PGA $450k Dogleg: A week shy of Augusta it might be worth going in strong to this $33 entry contest. The winner nets a cool $100k, and the top 500 trouser a minimum of $100.
• PGA $75k Driving Range: A $150 buy-in could land the top prize of $8k here, and what’s more you will only need to finish inside the top 30% of the 555-team field to land a minimum payout of $250.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Houston Open

It seems fairly obvious how to win at Golf Club of Houston: putt the lights out!

Henley ranked first for Putting Average 12 months ago on his way to the title, and he was closely followed in that stat by Zac Blair (T5 at halfway), Rickie Fowler (finished T3) and Sung Kang (we all know what happened to him). The point of difference between this course and most others is the slickness of the greens, so clearly good touch with the flat stick is key.

This is an easy enough course, with Henley winning in -20 a year ago and the average winning mark being -16 in the past five years, and with the weather seemingly stable and largely wind-free we would expect a similar score to be posted once again.

Otherwise there isn’t anything particularly extraordinary about the GC of Houston. The fairways are wider than average and besides which the rough isn’t penal, so really most players will be making GIR or scrambling their way to scoring opportunities.

This week really is all about who has the hot hand with the putter….the list of recent winners indicates that the cream doesn’t automatically rise to the top here: Henley, Jim Herman, J.B. Holmes, Matt Jones, D.A. Points – all reasonably skilled performers, but hardly the most obvious of Tour champions.

There are a few correlating courses of interest, and it is noticeable that Henley, Fowler, Stenson and Vaughn Taylor have all performed well at GC of Houston and another of Rees Jones’ layouts at Baltusrol; the host of the 2016 PGA Championship.

Another couple of strange ones: AT&T Pebble Beach, which both Points and Taylor have won while finishing first and second respectively in Houston; that’s a strange and surely not coincidental pairing?

And how about the Sony Open: Henley, Johnson Wagner and Vijay Singh held an eclectic list of players that have won there and in Houston, while Chris Kirk and Carl Pettersson have finished second in both in the past few years alone. Again, in a week where very little stands out, it might just be worth following those in.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Houston Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Houston Open

*Please note that some players may not have registered enough events this early into the 2017-2018 season to have an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Henrik Stenson (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 69.8, GPFP: 61.75 Salary: $10,500)

Let’s face it: there are a few more obvious plays this week than Stenson. Rickie Fowler enjoyed the week off from Austin and finished in the top-five here last year, while Justin Rose is surely on the brink of something special. As for Jordan Spieth, well, he needs to find some magic….and soon.

You could possibly hypothesize that Henrik doesn’t really think, in his heart of hearts, he will win at Augusta, and that might work nicely in our favor. He will be 100% committed to getting into the serious business in Houston.

The fact that he has finished inside the top-three here on a trio of occasions naturally bodes well, a does the fact he returned to form at Bay Hill in finishing T4; look, he always plays well there, but the confidence he can take from putting really nice on the Bermuda there is real.

If you play in One and Done style fantasy games then the Swede wouldn’t be our first cab off the rank by any means, but at roughly $1,000 less than guys like Fowler, Spieth and Rose – whose attention may be elsewhere – Stenson has the feel of a sensible play this week.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Approach – +0.768
• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green – +0.786
• Strokes Gained: Putting – +0.901

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Jason Dufner (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 62.4, GPFP: 79.19 Salary: $8,300)

In a week of curious DFS pricing and a strange, lopsided field to work through, even we are surprised to have Jason Dufner marked as our ‘next best’.

But there are reasons a-plenty. Dufner finished T64 at the WGC Match Play having been knocked out in the pool phase, but look a bit closer and we see a guy who beat both Jason Day and James Hahn before losing out in a sudden death play-off to Louis Oosthuizen.

The Duf-man’s game is in good shape, and the Alabama resident should be at home playing on the south coast of the US; his T12 here a year ago suggests as such.

Dufner’s putting stroke is one of the most reliable around, and as a proven PGA TOUR winner he makes for plenty of interest this week in a field lacking notable champions among the usual luminaries at the top of the betting market.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 60th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 71st
• SG: Total – 74th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Chris Kirk (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 70.4, GPFP: 54.99 Salary: $7,500)

The lure of playing in The Masters is large for any player, but for Georgians born and bred the appeal is obvious.

Chris Kirk is yet to book his spot at Augusta, and knows that a decent week here is the only chance he has of teeing it up in his home state.

He has come close to getting in the mix a couple of times this season, having finished T4 at the RSM Classic and getting into contention at both the Sony Open and Phoenix Open, where final rounds of 70 scuppered his chances.

A solid putter, Kirk finished T13 in his last start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 22nd
• SG: Around-the-Green – 34th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 34th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Grayson Murray (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 64.7, GPFP: 79.56  Salary: $7,200)

The set-up at the Golf Club of Houston should suit Murray, who can fire his bombs off the tee with minimal concern about where they end up.

One of the things we like about Murray is his ability to shoot low on Par 4s, and as we know this layout is a scorer’s course particularly when the wind is benign – as it is expected to be this week.

T8 at the possibly correlated Pebble Beach in February, Murray was going well at the Arnold Palmer Invitational until a bit of a fold on the Sunday; no doubt partly due to the hubbub surrounding his pairing with Byeong Hun An, with whom he had a badly misjudged social media spat some time ago.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 35th
• Birdie Average – 36th
• SG: Approach – 82nd

Low-Tier Pick:

Brandon Harkins (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 70.1, GPFP: 75.97 Salary: $7,000)

When he graduated from the Web.com Tour, it was easy enough to expect Brandon Harkins to deliver some good results in California given that he was born, raised and educated in the state, and he did not disappoint with T8 at the CareerBuilder, T12 at the Farmers and T15 at Pebble Beach.

The test would come elsewhere in the country, and while he hasn’t hit those heights again he did finish a respectable T36 on debut at Bay Hill last time out.

Decent from tee to green and excellent with the flat stick on Bentgrass and Poa Annua, this week will be a fact-finding mission as to Harkins’ suitability on super-smooth Bermuda. But if he plays like he can then there’s no reason why he can’t trouble the big boys.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 34th
• SG: Putting – 55th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 57th

Sleeper Pick for the Houston Open

James Hahn (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 70.3, GPFP: 81.35 Salary: $7,100)

If we are using the Sony Open as a yardstick then we note that James Hahn could and probably should have won that event in January: after forcing a play-off with Patton Kizzire, he missed two birdie putts to win in extra time before going down on the sixth extra hole.

That was strange to some extent because a hot flat stick is a standout aspect of Hahn’s game, and it will be intriguing to see how he goes on the slick Bermuda surfaces at GC of Houston this week.

With cuts made in his last seven straight events and three of those yielding top-20s, the 36-year-old’s medium-term formline is good enough to suggest he can contend once again this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 14th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 30th
• Birdie Average – 36th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Houston Open

Aaron Baddeley (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 70.7, GPFP: 41.85 Salary: $7,000)

With five kids to raise, you can forgive Aaron Baddeley for having peaks and troughs of form; it can’t be easy raising a brood like that and trying to focus on your swing!

Once upon a time a putting contest would have been right up the Australian’s alley, and while he doesn’t plunder top-10 finishes with the regularity that he used to Baddeley remains incredibly reliable when chipping and putting.

Indeed, he ranks first on Tour for Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and a respectable 58th for SG: Putting; if he can just get his approach game in order there’s no reason why Baddeley can’t add a whopping 47th top-ten finish on the PGA TOUR to his resumé.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 1st
• SG: Putting – 58th
• Scoring Average – 69th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”5.88%” bar_text=”8 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”19.84%” bar_text=”25 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”43.65%” bar_text=”55 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”5.56%” bar_text=”1 out of 18 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”27.78%” bar_text=”5 out of 18 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”80.16%” bar_text=”101 out of 126 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram