Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The Military Tribute at the Greenbrier

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Military Tribute at the Greenbrier

2018 Military Tribute at the Greenbrier Fantasy Preview

On paper, Francesco Molinari’s decision to play the Quicken Loans National over the Open de France looked a strange decision.

Le Golf National, the host venue of last week’s European Tour event, will host the Ryder Cup in September, and so the Italian might have gone there, put on a decent show and showed Thomas Bjorn and co he is ready for selection.

In reality, Molinari had FedExCup points on his mind, and in a weak field he took full advantage to win, remarkably, the first PGA TOUR title of his career.

Playing with Abraham Ancer in the final group, the 35-year-old put his foot on the gas on the back nine, going eagle-birdie-birdie-birdie to open up an unassailable lead. He would eventually hit the clubhouse eight shots clear of the field.

Respect to Molinari for taking his own path then, and he will head to the British Open in a couple of weeks full of confidence.

The field at this week’s Greenbrier Classic will be looking to find a bit of magic of their own; or simply qualify for the third major of the year at Carnoustie. Four places are available to the top-12 finishers who aren’t already booked in for the British Open.

The fourth of July celebrations will be slightly delayed at The Old White TPC in West Virginia, with the tournament being re-branded as ‘A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier’ as a nod to the fine work of the country’s servicemen and women.

Xander Schauffele reacts after his birdie putt on the 18th green to…

Xander Schauffele reacts after his birdie putt on the 18th green to take the outright lead during the final round of The Greenbrier Classic held at the Old White TPC on July 9, 2017 in White Sulphur… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Last Week’s Fantasy Results 

It was the Molinari show on Sunday as the Italian cruised to an impressive 62 stroke finish. Good news for us is that all seven of our main picks and all five our our Tuesday Sleeper Report picks made the cut.

Our Top-Dog Fowler charged up to finish 12th and along with him we had three others finishing in the Top 13, including Brian Gay’s T8.

Lahiri and Crane seemed to be exceptional low priced sleepers as both finished T13 to help round out some DFS rosters.

Francesco Molinari of Italy celebrates with the trophy and Tiger…

Francesco Molinari of Italy celebrates with the trophy and Tiger Woods after winning the Quicken Loans National during the final round at TPC Potomac on July 1, 2018 in Potomac, Maryland. Molinari… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

On the European Tour, our six picks yielded 3 Top 8 finishes including Knox (T2), Rahm (T5) and Garcia (T8).

The Military Tribute at the Greenbrier 2018 Field

Phil Mickelson, who owns property around the estate here, has accepted a late-in-the-day invitation to play alongside Webb Simpson and Kevin Kisner, and they will join another Greenbrier homeowner in Bubba Watson, who will be looking to win an incredible fourth title of the season.

Defending champion Xander Schauffele will tee up hoping to find some form on a track with plenty of good memories; he has missed three of his last four weekends.

Tony Finau and Brian Harman are the other standouts in a field which suggests the big guns are working on their game ‘behind closed doors’ ahead of the British Open.

Phil Mickelson of the United States and caddie Tim Mickelson walk on…

Phil Mickelson of the United States and caddie Tim Mickelson walk on the seventh hole during the final round of the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on June 17, 2018 in Southampton, New… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

The Old White TPC has produced winners ranging from Schauffele and Danny Lee to Scott Stallings, Angel Cabrera and Jonas Blixt in recent years; it’s just that kinda place!

The yardage is down at 7,287 yards for its Par 70, yet in reality it plays much shorter than that given its positioning above sea level.

Originally designed way back in 1914 by Charles Blair Macdonald, the layout underwent a significant makeover in 2016 after severe flooding changed the whole dynamics of the stretch. Complete holes were redesigned, although the nature of the track remains intact.

The Old White has mostly tree-lined fairways that are generous in size, and players who can shape the ball both ways tend to enjoy themselves here. The Bentgrass greens are larger than average too, so expect some big GIR percentages to be recorded.

There are only two Par 5s, which helps to keep scoring down a tad, but there are no demons here and – weather permitting – a winning score of between -13 and -16 is likely given what we have seen in the past couple of years.

Sebastian Munoz of Colombia walks up the sixth hole during the final…

Sebastian Munoz of Colombia walks up the sixth hole during the final round of The Greenbrier Classic held at the Old White TPC on July 9, 2017 in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for White Sulphur Springs, WV

Here’s where things could get rather interesting. The lead-up to the Greenbrier is calm enough, with sunny spells producing some pretty warm temperatures.

And then the rain comes….

Well, according to the early forecast anyway. ‘Scattered thunderstorms’ have been predicted on Thursday and Friday, but as ever the meteorologists aren’t quite sure when or how prolonged these bursts may be.

So it’s a leap into the unknown this week, although at least the weekend could be free of rain and warm temperatures of around 80 degrees.

Last Year’s Results from The Military Tribute at the Greenbrier

Last year’s edition of the Greenbrier Classic was a slightly unusual affair.

The leader of the field through 36 and 54 holes was Sebastian Munoz, the Colombian who was actually playing on the Web.com Tour in 2017.

After opening with a 61, Munoz was still leading overnight on Saturday by two shots from Robert Streb and three from Jamie Lovemark and Xander Schauffele. The 300/1 shot couldn’t get the job done, could he?

No, he couldn’t. The Colombian posted a final round of 72, and was usurped by the fast-finishing Schauffele, who carded a closing 67 to claim his first PGA TOUR title of what would be a stellar first debut season.

Streb, Lovemark, Munoz, Kelly Kraft and Russell Henley rounded out the top five.

No Title

SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of The Greenbrier Classic 2017, Xander Schauffele hung on tight contending with Robert Streb and the 54-hole leader Sebastian Munoz but delivered a solid tee shot on the 72nd hole to secure his first PGA TOUR title.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Military Tribute at the Greenbrier this Week

It’s one of those awkward between-major events with minimal FedExCup points and prize money; hence the weak field. Still, there’s plenty of cash for DFS gamers to battle for.

• PGA $500k Drive the Green: The total prize money is a touch down on the same contest last week, but the top prize of $100k remains! Turn a profit by finishing in the top 20% of finishers.
• PGA $25k Scramble: A weak field means more head-scratching for those who don’t do their research….take advantage and aim for the $2.5k top payout.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Military Tribute at the Greenbrier

The set-up at The Old White is fairly agreeable, and really there is little trouble to be found off the tee.

Of course, those who can shape their ball both ways will enjoy premium position on these tree-lined fairways, but the greens are large enough that enough a few missed fairways shouldn’t eat into your GIR count too badly.

The Greenbrier could degenerate into a contest of who hits it closest on approach, because even though these Bentgrass greens are slow-ish (and slowed further should it rain) the difference between making a 10ft putt for birdie and a 20ft speaks for itself.

And to reiterate, at a venue where attacking flags is possible, those playing in soft and wet conditions have a huge advantage; the weather forecasters will be your friends this week.

Schauffele ranked first for Greens in Regulation 12 months ago and sixth for Putting Average, which is fairly self-explanatory as to how he got the job done, and he made just six bogeys all week. Allied to 18 birdies and an eagle, that’s a winning formula and a half.

Our main correlations are those courses with a similar profile: Riviera, for example, is a tree-lined track framed by Bentgrass greens, while TPC River Highlands (the Travelers Championship) is also Bentgrass, tree-lined and a Par 70.

And here’s an odd leaderboard we’ve dug out. Munoz, who featured so prominently here 12 months ago, finished second at the Web.com Tour’s El Bosque Championship. Also in the mix were Ted Potter (T3) and Stuart Appleby (solo sixth) – both former winners of the Greenbrier, while Jamie Lovemark has a previous top-ten in the El Bosque and finished T3 here a year ago.

Coincidence? Possibly, but all narratives are welcome.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Military Tribute at the Greenbrier

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Military Tribute at the Greenbrier

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Russell Henley (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 60.8, GPFP: 48.67 Salary: $10,400)

There are six players priced at $10,000 or over this week, and you could make a case for any of them.

Bubba’s shot shaping, Phil’s putting, Webb’s hot hand, Tony’s obvious promise and Xander as defending champion….all could win this week.

But Russell Henley seems to be trending in the right direction, and – famous last words – he looks ready to win.

Any doubt that he’s a player of the upper echelon has been extinguished by his efforts in the majors so far this season, with top-25s in both The Masters and the US Open, and he has since followed up with T6 in the Travelers Championship.

Top fives in his last pair of trips to The Old White, this is a course that suits the eyes. Course appreciation plus current form is usually a recipe for success.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 22nd
• SG: Approach – 27th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 44th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Brian Harman (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 72.5, GPFP: 58.02 Salary: $9,500)

Pick him until he wins….that seems to be the way with Brian Harman right now!

To be honest, he hits greens for fun and is one of the best putters on the planet, so there is no reason to doubt his credentials at this layout.

Only three players on the PGA TOUR are higher in the Par 4 Birdie or Better ranks than Harman, and there’s only 13 with a better birdie average.

That’s all well and good, but what is the here and now like? Pretty good, by all accounts. The left-hander played some sublime golf when finishing T6 at the Travelers, and he will be looking to add a third PGA TOUR title to his collection this week.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 4th
• SG: Putting – 7th
• Greens in Regulation – 27th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Ted Potter (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 48.8, GPFP: 39.04 Salary: $7,600)

The former Greenbrier champion served notice of his intention to get back into the winner’s circle at The Old White with a decent turn at The National last week.

The AT&T Pebble Beach winner earlier this season was in fine fettle in Maryland, finishing T23 at River Highlands after opening with a below-par 72.

But his game improved significantly from there, and he gained +1.00 strokes both on approach and with putter in hand.

Potter is in that small band of players who have done well in the potentially-correlating El Bosque Championship, finishing T3 last year.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 150-175 yards – 30th
• Proximity to Hole – 34th
• Total Birdies – 65th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Abraham Ancer (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 54.5, GPFP: 61.06 Salary: $7,300)

The relatively short distance between Maryland and West Virginia suggests that form should travel this week; there won’t be any jet-lag or major change in temperatures to deal with.

So, we can back Ancer with confidence in the knowledge that the 100/1 shot should give us a decent run for our money.

Excellent all-round at Potomac, he should enjoy the easier conditions in West Virginia given that all three of his top-10s this season have come at double digits under par.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 42nd
• SG: Off the Tee – 77th
• SG: Approach – 98th

Low-Tier Pick:

Corey Conners (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 58.9, GPFP: 61.85 Salary: $7,000)

This supremely talented young tee-to-green merchant has caught many an eye this season….can he cap that with a maiden PGA TOUR victory?

The Canadian ranks 57th for SG: Tee-to-Green and 18th for Total Birdies; an insight into how well he has performed in those 22 starts.

He’s making cuts at courses he has never seen before, and we quite fancy that at an easier layout than most Conners will add to his solo top-ten this term.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 18th
• Total Driving – 31st
• Greens in Regulation – 33rd

Sleeper Pick for The Military Tribute at the Greenbrier

J.J. Spaun (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 54.4, GPFP: 43.56 Salary: $7,400)

Any long, straight drivers should have a huge advantage at The Old White in that they should be able to get their approaches closer too, so perhaps this is the week where J.J. Spaun breaks his duck.

The 27-year-old hits greens pretty much everywhere he goes, ranking 20th on Tour for GIR, and if he can really dial in those approaches than his lacklustre efforts with the flat stick could be less of a problem.

With six top-10 finishes on the main tour in little over a season-and-a-half, it’s time that Spaun finally cashed in.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 16th
• Total Driving – 20th
• Greens in Regulation – 21st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Military Tribute at the Greenbrier

C.T. Pan (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 55.9, GPFP: 44.71 Salary: $7,300)

Three top-20s in his last four starts suggests C.T. Pan is massively underrated in this weak field.

His neat-and-tidy game yields plenty of scoring opportunities, and if the Chinaman could putt better he might already have his first PGA TOUR victory.

With a trio of top-10s last season, Pan showed he can get into the mix, and in a rich vein of form at the moment he should enjoy the free-scoring at The Old White.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 18th
• Total Birdies – 23rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 75th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.14%” bar_text=”16 out of 224 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”18.75%” bar_text=”42 out of 224 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”37.50%” bar_text=”84 out of 224 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”9.38%” bar_text=”3 out of 32 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”21.87%” bar_text=”7 out of 32 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”75.89%” bar_text=”170 out of 224 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for The Quick Loans National with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram