Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The John Deere Classic

2018 John Deere Classic Fantasy Sleeper Report

We are just one week away from the British Open, and while the big guns are working hard on their game on the range – or at the European Tour’s Scottish Open – many others are heading to TPC Deere Run, Illinois for the John Deere Classic.

Why? Because there’s plenty of FedExCup points available and prize money, and of course the highest finisher this week will also earn a British Open place.

For the likes of Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker, it’s a chance to hone their craft at a course that has been very good to them through the years; Stricker still holds the most recent ‘three-peat’ on Tour at this venue.

As for Bryson DeChambeau, this was the location of his maiden PGA TOUR win 12 months ago, and the level of passion he showed afterwards suggests Deere Run will be a track that stays close to his heart. There’s also the opportunity to overtake Dustin Johnson at the top of the FedExCup rankings.

Bryson DeChambeau plays a bunker shot on the 16th hole during the…

Bryson DeChambeau plays a bunker shot on the 16th hole during the final round of the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands on June 24, 2018 in Cromwell, Connecticut. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

There is certainly nothing to fear from playing Deere Run, with minimal danger to be found off the tee and nice, wide fairways to aim at. The Bentgrass greens are generously proportioned, and really this is just a shootout for the pros: anything from -19 to -22 can be expected as a winning mark.

Indeed, there is even some rain in the forecast, and that will help to soften the greens further. This could escalate into a putting contest with 80% of greens in regulation being hit.

In which case, who makes our draft for the John Deere Classic?

[membership level=”0″]

The John Deere Classic Fantasy Sleeper Report

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

The John Deere Classic Fantasy Sleeper Report

Chris Kirk – Vegas Odds 55/1 – There has been plenty of sneaky good form from Chris Kirk so far this season, and he may just nip under the radar and win a ‘lesser’ event like this.

In his last half-dozen starts he has T6, T8 and T11 finishes to his name, and as somebody who averages comfortably under par this term and who ranks 56th on Tour for Birdie Average, Kirk can mix it when it comes to shooting low.

His last four rounds at TPC Deere Run have all been under par, too.

Patrick Rodgers – Vegas Odds 60/1 – When the penny drops for Rodgers and he connects four good rounds he will win a PGA TOUR event, and perhaps that can be this week at a venue he clearly enjoys.

He fired rounds of 65 and 66 here in 2016, while last year he held the 36-hole lead before slipping down the pecking order behind DeChambeau.

You have to take the rough with the smooth with Rodgers, and you are as likely to have the cut sweats as you are the finishing line blues come Sunday. But a course specialist who ranks 9th on Tour for Total Birdies appeals massively in this field.

Brian Gay – Vegas Odds 60/1 – One rule of thumb when analyzing potential birdie-fests is to simply back players who are in-form, with the logic that they will be bettered placed to take advantage of the straightforward conditions.

In which case, Gay is a smart play this week. If we go back to the AT&T Byron Nelson, the 46-year-old has a T8 and two T12 finishes in his last half-dozen starts, and that run also includes a top-20 in the US Open.

He ranks top-40 on Tour for Birdie Average and Birdies Made from the Fairway, and so he has the toolkit to make things happen in Illinois.

Aaron Wise – Vegas Odds 66/1 – Only fools rush in to back a player that has missed four cuts on the spin, but when you note that his two performances prior to that resulted in 1-2 finishes you can let Aaron Wise off.

He missed the weekend of the Greenbrier but only on the line at -2, which is hardly a disaster, and he was actually gaining strokes on the field from tee-to-green through 36 holes.

The 22-year-old ranks seventh on Tour for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders and 12th for Birdie Average, and if his game is hotting up then TPC Deere Run seems like as good a venue as any for him to shine.

Keith Mitchell – Vegas Odds 80/1 – It was an excellent week at The Old White for Mitchell, who finished T30 but who actually ranked fourth for SG: Approach and 13th for SG: Tee-to-Green.

His prodigious length off the tee should grant him shorter approaches to the hole this week, and a player who ranks tenth on Tour for Total Birdies is always going to catch the eye in a shootout.

Mitchell’s form is solid and enhanced when considering birdie-fests: his T3 at Byron Nelson in -19 testament to that.

[/membership]

Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for John Deere Classic here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”1.818%” bar_text=”3 out of 165 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”9.09%” bar_text=”15 out of 165 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”26.06%” bar_text=”43 out of 165 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”3.03%” bar_text=”1 out of 33 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”3.03%” bar_text=”1 out of 33 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”63.63″ bar_text=”105 out of 165 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

---

Cover photo via Instagram