Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The Open Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Open Championship

2018 British Open Fantasy Preview

All we needed ahead of the third major of the year was a reminder of how tough it can be to predict the winners of golf tournaments.

Michael Kim, who has missed the weekend on more occasions than he has made the cut, and who ranks 185th on Tour for Greens in Regulation, produced the performance of a lifetime to win the John Deere Classic at a scarcely believable -27. It was his maiden victory and just the second top-10 of his career.

And that followed the triumph of Branden Stone in the Scottish Open; a player who was matched at 1000/1 with the UK’s Betfair Exchange betting site!

So yes, golf is hard….

As far as the majors are concerned, at least the British Open has a logical feel to it in terms of drafting players likely to excel. Links golf is a unique skill and only the chosen few pass the test, and really any player who has shown form in the British Open editions of yesteryear or Links-based events should be considered.

Brett Rumford of Australia hits from a bunker during previews to the…

Brett Rumford of Australia hits from a bunker during previews to the 147th Open Championship at Carnoustie Golf Club on July 16, 2018 in Carnoustie, Scotland. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

The likes of Justin Thomas, with their MC-53 formline in the tournament, are a little harder to get behind.

Those sentiments are exacerbated by the host venue of this week’s British Open. Carnoustie has been nicknamed ‘Car-nasty’ in the past, and it’s easy to see why. Jean van de Velde’s dreams of winning a major were shattered when he found the ‘burn’ on 18 when three clear in 1999, while a young Sergio Garcia left the course in tears when losing out to Padraig Harrington in a playoff in 2007.

This is not one for the faint of heart….

We’ve a fascinating prospect in store regardless, and we cannot wait for the action to get underway on Thursday.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results 

Unfortunately (and out of anyone’s control), our Top Pick Bryson DeChambeau withdrew from the John Deere with an injury.  Because we were top-heavy with Bryson, our performance last week didn’t quite cash us anything good. Despite our top Sleeper Pick Joel Dahmen finishing T2, there wasn’t much luck for us especially with Michael Kim not on our radar.

Michael Kim celebrates with the trophy after winning the John Deere…

Michael Kim celebrates with the trophy after winning the John Deere Classic during the final round at TPC Deere Run on July 15, 2018 in Silvis, Illinois. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

The Open Championship 2018 Field

You already know the drill here: only the cream of the crop makes the trip for a British Open.

Indeed, 78 of the world’s top 80 players are expected to take to the tee, with the two anomalies – Bryson DeChambeau and Louis Oosthuizen – both sweating on injuries.

Justin Thomas of the United States and Tiger Woods of the United…

Justin Thomas of the United States and Tiger Woods of the United States talk while on a practice round during previews to the 147th Open Championship at Carnoustie Golf Club on July 16, 2018 in… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Otherwise the great and good are in town, with Stone, Jens Dantorp and Eddie Pepperell booking their spots with their high finishes in the Scottish Open and Kim expected to dash from Illinois to Scotland for his debut.

A selection of other qualifiers and amateurs will make up the numbers, as well as a legendary cast of former British Open champions: Mark Calcavecchia, Sandy Lyle and Tom Lehman are all expected to take to the tee.

This Week’s Course Preview

Well, where do you start with Carnoustie?

It’s a course described by Hall of Famer Sir Michael Bonallack thus: “When the wind is blowing, it is the toughest golf course in Britain….and when it’s not blowing, it’s probably still the toughest.”

That’s perhaps why Harrington won with a score of -7 in 2007 (just 19 players ending under par), and why Paul Lawrie’s winning tally in 1999 was +6; the highest of the modern era.

So why is it so troubling? It’s largely because of the stiff winds that blow in from the North Sea, which will naturally howl on a layout as exposed and tree-less as this.

As if that wasn’t enough, Carnoustie is long and narrow, with pot bunkers in the middle of fairways and several ‘burns’ – basically creeks or stretches of water – making their presence known.

Korea’s Choi Minchel plays a shot out of a bunker on the 1st during a…

Korea’s Choi Minchel plays a shot out of a bunker on the 1st during a practice session at The 147th Open Championship at Carnoustie, Scotland on July 16, 2018. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

There are only two par 5s too, and otherwise Carnoustie serves up a series of bone-chilling par 3 and 4s which will test the fortitude – and the ball striking – of any player no matter how confident. And at 7,421 yards (Par 71), this is the longest stretch on the British Open rotation.

The misery, if we can call it that, concludes in the terrifying assault of holes 15-18, which really should have their own ‘Hogan’s Alley’ style title.

All four of them played over par in 2007; especially the par 4 eighteenth, which had a scoring average of some 4.61!

Fifteen is a 472-yard par 4 that asks numerous questions of the players, most notably off the tee where they must thread their hybrid – or driver, if feeling brave – through a fairway littered with danger.

Sixteen has been described by many, including Tom Watson, as the hardest par 3 in golf. At 248 yards into the wind, it will take an almighty strike to find the green – Jack Nicklaus took driver and hit his ball pin high in 1968. You sense there will be some severe scrambling to be done here….

Seventeen plays host to the ‘Barry Burn’, a narrow body of water but one that has caught out many players in the past five decades. The burn features several times on the hole, and offers danger off the tee and on approach.

Eighteen, where dreams have been shattered. Who can forget the sight of Van de Velde, trousers and socks discarded and up to his shins in the Barry Burn, trying desperately to salvage his British Open hopes.

The Frenchman started the 18th three shots clear….he ended it with a triple and a spot in a playoff he was never likely to recover for.

Out of bounds and deep bunkers patrol either side of the fairway, and the burn also snakes its way around the hole. At greenside, the out of bounds area is mere yards from the green, and it takes nerves of steel to navigate the hole in four.

Harrington twice found the water in 2007, managed to get up-and-down for a double bogey and booked his place in a showdown with Garcia; somehow recovering his sense to take the honors.

The last word can go to 2001 British Open champion David Duval. “If the average player had to play out there, he’d probably quit the game. A lot of pros, too.”

Weather Forecast for Angus, Scotland

The build-up to Thursday’s first tee should be typical of the UK for the past few weeks: warm and sunny, with little chance of rain to soften surfaces up.

Thursday too is set fair, with a top temperature of 66 degrees feeling warm enough in the sun. Wind speeds could reach in excess of 13 mph.

Friday is the trickiest day of the forecast to fathom, with scattered showers in the forecast and wind speeds of 14 mph.

Saturday and Sunday should be mild and dry, but watch out for those winds on Sunday: they could reach 16 mph (around 26 km/h)! What a way that will be to end the tournament.

Last Year’s Results from The Open Championship

It s rare for a British Open champion to go wire-to-wire, so huge respect to Jordan Spieth for his efforts at Royal Birkdale last year.

He opened with a round of 65 to tie the first-round lead with Brooks Koepka and Matt Kuchar; a man who Spieth had not seen the last of.

Friday was a tough day for scoring, and Spieth was just one of seven players to shoot under par and extend his lead to two shots over Kuchar and three from Koepka and Ian Poulter.

Then the weekend dawned calm and clear….and chaos ensued. Braden Grace fired a round of 62 – the lowest in major history – to surge up the leaderboard, but Spieth also took his chance with a 65 to take the overnight lead into Sunday at -11; three clear of Kuchar and six ahead of Koepka and Canadian rookie Austin Connelly.

Spieth couldn’t be caught, could he?

In echoes of his troubles at Augusta, he tried his best to throw away the championship, making several errors including one tee shot that he sliced so badly it ended up behind a viewing platform.

But Spieth would make some incredible up-and-downs, and a huge birdie, to hang on to his lead and secure a third major title. Kuchar, Haotong Li – who served up the 31st major round of 63 – Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Rory McIlroy rounded out the top five.

Spieth rides nearly flawless finish to Open title

Jordan Spieth escaped trouble on the 13th hole and never looked back to win The 146th Open at Royal Birkdale.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Open Championship this Week

It’s a major week and that can only mean one thing: a major slate of contests!

There really is something for all budgets and preferences this week, and the amount of cash up for grabs has increased exponentially.

• PGA $3m Fantasy Golf Millionaire: If you didn’t manage to grab a ticket to the Milly Maker, not to worry: you can buy in for just $20! The winner walks away a millionaire, and the top 2000 players win a minimum of $100.
• PGA $50k Hybrid: If you’re operating on a lower budget not to worry: for a $3 buy-in here, you can still walk away with a cool $2.5k! With under 20k teams and a multi-entry of three teams max, a good roster could take you a long way here.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Open Championship

There are so many ingredients that go towards winning a major, but a decent place to start is preparation.

We really can’t stress enough how important some kind of Links prep is. We’ve got the likes of Kuchar who finished fourth in the Scottish Open 12 months ago and nearly got his hands on the British Open trophy a week later.

Indeed, seven of the top-10 at Royal Birkdale had turned out in the Scottish Open, while the first four home in the epic Stenson-Mickelson battle had played the Scottish a week prior.

All in all, six of the last eight British Open champions had warmed up in the Scottish Open.

And what about Carnoustie? Clearly, players up for the grind and who have shown form in similarly tough conditions, particularly the US Open, appeal.

The key consideration is the wind, so any players who have played coastal or desert golf well should also come under the microscope.

It’s funny, because the weather could have altered the landscape of the British Open in 2018. The UK has enjoyed a heatwave for a number of weeks, and the fairways and greens will run hot and fast; check out Brandt Snedeker’s tweet confirming his own 427-yard drive in practice!

There is still a premium on finding fairways of course, even if some of the fescue grasses that line the rough have been burnt off by the sun. Pot bunkers don’t just disappear! Of course, the shorter, straighter hitters have an advantage in the sense that they can get plenty more run on their ball.

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland plays out of a bunker on a practice…

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland plays out of a bunker on a practice round during previews ahead of the 147th Open Championship at Carnoustie Golf Club on July 16, 2018 in Carnoustie, Scotland. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

There will be lots of missed greens due to their firmness, so short game and scrambling will need to be on point, and of course you won’t win a major unless your putter gets hot.

And really, that’s the lot. Scottish/Irish Open prep, accurate ball-striking (and scrambling where required) and that X Factor required to win a major….it all sounds so simple on paper!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Open Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Open Championship

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Justin Rose (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 92.5, GPFP: 74.02 Salary: $10,200)

Are the stars aligning for Justin Rose to finally land a second major?

The 2013 US Open champion has come up empty-handed ever since, despite six major top-10s and twice finishing second in The Masters.

The British Open has never typically been that kind to him, with just one top-10 to his name in it, but his next best effort of T12 came at Carnoustie in 2007. He is a better player now, that’s for sure.

We’ve written about the need for a decent prep on the Links prior to the British Open, and most pleasing about Rose’s top-10 at last week’s Scottish Open was that it came from below the radar: 67-66-67-67 is a really solid effort, but went largely unnoticed in among the exploits of Stone and co.

Prior to that the Englishman bagged another top-10 at the US Open, and all-in-all his formline reads 9-10-6-1-23 and his major form in 2018 reads 10-12.

A winner of the US Open at Merion and the Scottish Open at Royal Aberdeen, Rose won’t mind if the weather takes a turn for the worst this week, and he has all of the pedigree and poise we look for in a prospective major champion.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 2nd
• Total Driving – 7th
• Scrambling – 15th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Rickie Fowler (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 77.0, GPFP: 90.86 Salary: $9,700)

Rickie Fowler remains something of an enigma.

On the one hand, he’s been a pro for nine years and only won four times on the PGA TOUR – a meager tally surpassed by many players not fit to carry his bags.

That’s the concern, but then the bigger picture suggests that with top-three finishes in all four majors, Fowler really is the real deal.

It’s possible that the British Open may be the event in which he finally takes the step up to big school, and hopefully the 2018 edition will be the catalyst.

Let’s look at the key pointers: he enjoys Links golf (two top-5s in the British Open, former Scottish Open winner), plays well in the wind (winner of the Abu Dhabi Championship, lost in a playoff of the Phoenix Open) and typically turns up at majors (27/34 cuts made, 8x top-5s, 4x runner-up).

After opening 64-66 at last week’s Scottish Open, Fowler arguably should have gone on to convert, but the bigger picture is that he played well, got a taster of unique Links conditions in the UK what with the heatwave and the firmer surfaces, and best of all he ranked numero uno for Putts per Round.

Rickie’s time will surely come….could it be at Carnoustie?

Key Stats:

• Bogey Avoidance – 4th
• Scrambling – 5th
• Greens in Regulation – 25th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 72.9, GPFP: 61.21 Salary: $7,900)

We drafted Tyrrell Hatton as part of our Scottish Open picks in our European Tour column last week, and he – and we – were slightly disappointed with his T9 finish, the Englishman once again gave backers a good run for their money on the Links.

He is a two-time Alfred Dunhill Links champion and has a pair of top-10s to his name in the Scottish Open now, and his all-round game is in a decent place right now after ranking fifth for GIR at the Open de France and second for Putts per Round at Gullane.

Hatton’s performances in majors (three top-10s) and WGC events (T3 at WGC Mexico, T11 at WGC HSBC Champions) suggests he enjoys the big occasion, and indeed it’s hard to argue with the record of a man who has delivered eight top-10 finishes in PGA TOUR events in just 33 starts.

T6 at the US Open in June, Hatton could be a major champion in waiting.

Key Stats (European Tour):

• Putts per GIR – 14th
• Greens in Regulation – 70.83%
• Stroke Average – 69.59

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Brandt Snedeker (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 55.6, GPFP: 44.51 Salary: $7,300)

While we have written about the need for rigorous preparation ahead of a British Open, there’s nothing quite like extensive practice at the venue.

Brandt Snedeker has been in Scotland since last Friday and practicing at Carnoustie since Saturday, so he will have an advantage over those rocking up on Monday for the first time.

You would like to think that Sneds’ prep includes learning where he can miss the fairway and where he can’t, and which angles into the green will be key.

And furthermore, he is in good enough form to take advantage of that early analysis.

A slow start to the 2018 season was precipitated by rehab from various injuries, but Snedeker has found his game lately with a T6 at the St Jude Classic and T3 at the Greenbrier.

With five career top-10s in the US Open, the 37-year-old is as willing as anybody in golf to grind out a score, and a run of four cuts made in five starts at the British Open – with T3 and T11 finishes in there – hints at more to come on Scottish soil.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 22nd
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 35th
• Bogey Avoidance – 42nd

Low-Tier Pick:

Stewart Cink (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 61.1, GPFP: 66.01 Salary: $6,600)

A former British Open champion with top-five finishes in two of his last three starts on the PGA TOUR? At $6,600? We’ll take some of that.

Cink’s sole major triumph came on Scottish soil at Royal Turnberry back in 2009, which franked a run of form in the British Open that features four top-20 finishes. He also has a top-10 in the Alfred Dunhill Links to his name in 2015.

Followers of the PGA TOUR will know that Cink finished T4 in the St Jude Classic and followed up two weeks later with a T2 return at the Travelers Championship, which included a final round of 62. This is the best the 45-year-old has struck the ball in quite some time.

Age is no barrier in the British Open – Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els and Darren Clarke were no spring chickens at the time of their triumph in the past decade, and besides Cink is striping the ball as well as men half his age at the moment.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 9th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 35th
• Greens in Regulation – 35th

Sleeper Pick for The Open Championship

Charley Hoffman (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 61.7, GPFP: 74.06 Salary: $7,000)

In his last six major starts, Hoffman hasn’t missed a single cut and has yielded five top-25 finishes, with T20s in the British Open last year and at the US Open in June.

The Californian is serious about the British Open and proved it by making the trip to play in last week’s Scottish Open, where he finished T19 and racked up rounds of 67-66-68-68.

A proven wind player as a Texas Open champion, if you are looking for a class act proven in majors, and who is in decent form right now, at the $7,000 mark then you won’t find many better than Hoffman.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 66th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 73rd
• SG: Putting – 85th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Open Championship

Alexander Bjork (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 63.7, GPFP: 50.98 Salary: $6,800)

The Swede might not be a household name with anyone that doesn’t follow the European Tour, but his game is well-suited to the British Open test.

A brilliant scrambler, Bjork has had a good look at Links golf in the past few weeks and likes what he saw: top-20s at the Open de France (T8), Irish Open (T14) and Scottish Open (T19) are testament to that.

The 28-year-old landed the first European Tour title of his career this season at the China Open, and while has proven to be something of a late starter in the sport he is making up for lost time with some excellent performances.

Key Stats (European Tour):

• Scrambling – 23rd
• Bogeys per Round – 25th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 28th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.14%” bar_text=”17 out of 238 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”18.48%” bar_text=”44 out of 238 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”36.55%” bar_text=”87 out of 238 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”8.82%” bar_text=”3 out of 34 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”23.53%” bar_text=”8 out of 34 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”76.89%” bar_text=”183 out of 238 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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