Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The John Deere Classic
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the John Deere Classic
2018 John Deere Classic Fantasy Preview
Like buses, you wait an age for reluctant champions to come along and then two turn up at once!
After Francesco Molinari claimed his first win on US soil in 121 starts at the Quicken Loans National, Kevin Na ended a seven-year title drought with a five-shot victory at last week’s A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier Classic.
That was Na’s first win in 158 starts on the PGA TOUR, and what a way to get over the line on Sunday: he carded a front nine of 29 and drained more than 100ft of putts on his way to a comprehensive victory.
There is one final tune-up ahead of the British Open next week and that’s the John Deere Classic, an enjoyable affair in Illinois that serves up birdie opportunities left, right and centre. You suspect those will be rather more difficult to come by at Carnoustie.
As well as confidence heading into the third major of the year, and FedExCup points for those unlikely to punch their ticket, there is one British Open place available this week to the highest finisher (top-five) who hasn’t already booked their spot at Carnoustie.
There will be plenty of aggressive golf this week from most in the field desperate to get on the flight to Scotland.
Francesco Molinari of Italy putts on the ninth green during the final…
Francesco Molinari of Italy putts on the ninth green during the final round of the Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac on July 1, 2018 in Potomac, Maryland. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Our top guy last week was Russell Henley, who delivered with a T10 finish among a tough field. JJ Spaun also continues to be our radar after posting a T13 finish as our Top Sleeper pick.
The Tuesday Sleeper Report had a shaky go about it, but we caught a little lightning from Austin Cook with a T5 finish (catch our recent podcast interview with Austin Cook here). Overall between the main picks and the Tuesday Sleeper Report, we lost two just players to the cut out of twelve.
Kevin Na celebrates after putting out to win the A Military Tribute…
Kevin Na celebrates after putting out to win the A Military Tribute At The Greenbrier held at the Old White TPC course on July 8, 2018 in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
We also had an impressive showing across the pond at the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open with all six picks making the cut and five of them finishing in the Top 14 including a 2nd and a T4.
The John Deere Classic 2018 Field
This week’s host venue, TPC Deere Run, offers a rather gentle lead-in to the British Open, and as such a decent field will take to the tee in Illinois to gain some much-needed momentum.
Molinari, fresh from his exploits in West Virginia, will take to the tee along with the defending champion, Bryson DeChambeau, who also took the honors at this year’s Memorial Tournament.
Six of the top-25 in the FedExCup rankings, as well as seven winners on the PGA TOUR this term, are in town, as are course horses Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker.
Brandt Snedeker, Austin Cook, Joel Dahmen and the supremely-gifted Joaquin Niemann will be looking to build on top-fives in the Greenbrier, while Ryan Moore and Sean O’Hair will be looking to add a second John Deere Classic trophy to their collection.
Bryson DeChambeau of the United States plays his shot from the fifth…
Bryson DeChambeau of the United States plays his shot from the fifth tee during the final round of the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands on June 24, 2018 in Cromwell, Connecticut. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
With winning scores ranging from -19 to -22 in the past five years, it becomes apparent that TPC Deere Run is a rather agreeable layout.
Measuring 7,268 yards for its Par 71, this stretch in Silvis, Illinois was designed by former five-time PGA TOUR winner D.A. Weibring, who was clearly in generous mood when drawing up the plans.
The fairways are receptive and a decent size, while the Bentgrass greens are also easy enough to find – Zach Johnson hit 86% GIR last year.
There have been rounds of 59 (Paul Goydos) and 60 (Steve Stricker) compiled here, and with the weather forecast suggesting benign conditions – indeed, there’s even some rain around which will soften the surface – we would expect some low scores to go in once more.
Typically, 13 or more of the holes average under par, and with little danger off the tee – guys like Chez Reavie found 91% of fairways – the main premise this week is to hit the ball closer than your opponents and/or make plenty of putts.
Length off the tee doesn’t appear to be too much of an advantage. Steve Striker is a three-time winner at Deere Run while Zach Johnson is a regular on the leaderboards here; neither could be construed as a bomber.
If you like to correlate two or more courses, the rollcall of winners and runners-up suggests Colonial, host of the Fort Worth Invitational, might be worth a look. Spieth, Striker, Johnson and Kenny Penny have won this and that event, Tim Clark has finished second at both venues while Sean O’Hair is a Deere Run champion and a Colonial runner-up.
A general view of the 18th hole during the fourth and final round of…
A general view of the 18th hole during the fourth and final round of the John Deere Classic held at TPC Deere Run on July 16, 2017 in Silvis, Illinois. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Silvis, IL
It’s still early, but there does appear to be some rain around in the forecast.
The build-up is warm and sunny, and Thursday itself should provide ideal conditions with sunny spells and temperatures reaching 92 degrees.
And then the rain comes….according to the forecast, anyhow. Friday, Saturday and Sunday have ‘scattered thunderstorms’ coming, apparently, although a ‘chance of precipitation’ rating of 60% for all three days suggests that there is rain around but they just don’t know when.
Wind is unlikely to be a factor, with predictions in the 8-10 mph range across all four days.
Last Year’s Results from The John Deere Classic
Last year’s John Deere Classic looked set to serve up a surprise or maiden winner at the 54-hole stage, and that’s exactly what happened with Bryson DeChambeau picking up his first PGA TOUR win.
He was T5, along with Jamie Lovemark and J.J. Henry, heading into Sunday, with Nicholas Lindheim one clear in T4, Scott Stallings and Daniel Berger both T2 on -14, and Patrick Rodgers clear on -16.
As tends to happen on leaderboards packed with inexperienced players on the Sunday, there were plenty of big moves with Rodgers, Berger and Stallings all carding 70s on the final day.
That wouldn’t be good enough as Bryson, protractors, compasses and calculators in tow, shot 65 to take the title by one shot from Rodgers in solo second.
Wes Bryan and Rick Lamb ended up in a tie in third, with Stallings, Berger, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker and Jonathan Byrd in T5.
Bryson Dechambeau extended highlights | Round 4 | John Deere
SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2017 John Deere Classic, Bryson Dechambeau rallies on his back nine posting six birdies in order to secure his first PGA TOUR title. The John Deere classic returns to TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The John Deere Classic this Week
With a guaranteed huge slate for the British Open next week, gaming at the John Deere Classic should be centered on accumulating, rather than speculating. Here’s a couple of contests that could enable you to do just that.
- PGA $525k Drive the Green: The top 12.5% of players will double their money at least in this $5 contest, and we like those odds given the wide-open feel to this event. The top prize is a cool $100k!
- PGA $15k Mini-Max: Now here’s a great way to accumulate this week. Entry is just $0.50 and yet the top prize in this 35k team contest is $1.2k, with the top 25% doubling their investment at least.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The John Deere Classic
It would be fair to say that our notes on the John Deere Classic are less than comprehensive!
This is, for want of a better word, a birdie-fest, with the players unlikely to get into much trouble from tee to green.
So realistically this is an event where proximity to the hole on approach, or a steaming hot putter, will win the day.
As ever, current form is a strong guide – Bryson had banked two top-20s in his prior three starts to lifting the trophy, and we’re happy to make a case for the form horses too: look at last year’s GIR stats and top of the tree you will see a trio of former Deere Run champions, namely Zach Johnson, Brian Harman and Jonathan Byrd.
We’ve had a nice stack of events on Bentgrass in recent weeks, and given that the layout here is fairly straightforward there is no reason why a hot putter – in addition to simple tee-to-green striking – won’t get the job done.
The link with Colonial grew stronger in 2017: Steve Stricker and Brian Harman racking up top-10 finishes in both, and Kevin Tway and Morgan Hoffmann delivering a pair of top-20s.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The John Deere Classic
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The John Deere Classic
Top Tier Pick #1:
Bryson DeChambeau (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 72.9, GPFP: 58.30 Salary: $11,400)
Anyone who saw the emotion erupting from Bryson DeChambeau when he won this title 12 months ago would have seen that it meant the world to him.
Those emotions can often stir up good vibes ahead of a trophy defense, and for DeChambeau – who might otherwise be thinking about the Open Championship – that is a key motivator this week.
As is the possibility that he can climb to number one in the FedExCup rankings with a strong showing, while consolidating his Ryder Cup place.
The 24-year-old has plenty of upside this week then!
Ranking seventh for Birdies from Fairway and tenth for Birdie Average, DeChambeau has been playing some excellent golf of late and has the game for an out-and-out shootout.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average from the Fairway – 7th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 16th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 23rd
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Chesson Hadley (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 72.5, GPFP: 56.09 Salary: $9,500)
With seven top-10s to his name this season, Hadley has been one of the most consistent players on Tour without getting over the winning line.
A proven birdie-maker, the 31-year-old is most likely to triumph in a birdie shootout where accuracy off the tee isn’t so important, and so TPC Deere Run appears to be his ideal venue.
After missing the cut at the US Open and the Travelers, Hadley returned to form with T8 last time out at the Quicken Loans National; closing out his efforts 64-68-68.
If he really focuses this week, he could end a long old title drought that dates back to 2014.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 10th
- Birdie Average – 9th
- SG: Putting – 20th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Kevin Tway (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 59.00, GPFP: 50.71 Salary: $8,000)
There is a group of players on the PGA TOUR who we can file under the heading ‘might win soon’, and Tway is definitely among that category.
The big hitter has banked three top-10 finishes this term, all of which have come in his last half-dozen starts!
Those were all at double-digits under par, which gives you an indication of how he likes to play his golf, as does a rank of eighth on Tour for Total Birdies.
Key Stats:
- Total Birdies – 8th
- Approaches from 125-150 yards – 63rd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 85th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Corey Conners (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 59.2, GPFP: 47.33 Salary: $7,300)
This young Canadian’s form is travelling.
Ranking third for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Conners finished T30 at the Greenbrier which could have been so much better but for an ice-cold putter.
What happens if he just finds something on the greens this week? His tee-to-green game is excellent, and 18/23 cuts made this term highlight how well that travels with him.
Key Stats:
- Total Birdies – 14th
- SG: Approach – 45th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 78th
Low-Tier Pick:
Vaughn Taylor (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 58.7, GPFP: 46.98 Salary: $6,900)
He’s not a player we’d typically race out to back, but Vaughn Taylor has upside in this field quality and at this layout.
A top-10 and two top-20s at Deere Run are a handy insight, and he also has top-20s to his name at our correlating track at Colonial.
And the pair of top-20s are promising for a player who won on Tour as recently as 2016, who ranks top-50 for Birdie Average and whose lack of length won’t betray him here.
Key Stats:
- Total Birdies – 31st
- Birdie Average – 47th
- SG: Approach – 59th
Sleeper Pick for The John Deere Classic
Joel Dahmen (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 56.2, GPFP: 44.99 Salary: $7,600)
Dahmen courted controversy at the Quicken Loans National when he ‘called out’ playing partner Sung Kang for a possibly contentious hazard call, but he didn’t seem to let it affect him at the Greenbrier.
He finished T5, ranked second for SG: Tee-to-Green and only two players found more greens in regulation, and so he can reflect upon the best week of his PGA TOUR career to date.
The 30-year-old has collected six top-25 finishes in his last eight starts, and you wonder if that consistency will be rewarded at an easy TPC Deere Run this week.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 22nd
- Total Birdies – 49th
- SG: Approach – 60th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The John Deere Classic
Sam Saunders (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 51.7, GPFP: 49.61 Salary: $7,200)
Saunders used an old putter belonging to his legendary grandfather Arnold Palmer at the Greenbrier, and some of the old magic must have been intact as he gained 0.81 strokes on the field putting and finished T5.
With three top-10s to his name this term, Saunders is the kind of player who can really shoot low numbers when conditions suit – one of his best being the T8 in the CareerBuilder shootout.
An errant nature off the tee won’t hurt him too much at Deere Run, and a player that ranks 23rd for Birdie Average clearly knows how to get the job done.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 23rd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 83rd
- SG: Putting – 97th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
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