Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions – The 2014 Valspar Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 Valspar Championship March 13 – 16th, 2014

Tournament Preview

Most of those playing in last week’s field will be delighted to get out of Miami and not return to the Blue Monster until 2015. The course conditions on the newly renovated track derailed many of the World’s best, quite a few of them carding some very poor scores.

This week the TOUR is moving to the Tampa area for the Valspar Championship before eventually wrapping things up on the east coast with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill next week.  Last year’s champ Kevin Streelman will be back in the field to defend his title along with big names like Spieth, Snedeker, Kuchar, and Dufner. In all there will be 500 FedExCup points and $990,000 on the line for this week’s winner, as tune up rounds before the 2014 Masters rapidly wind down.

The Course

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) measures in at 7,340 yards and plays as a par 71.  Riddled with tree-lined fairways and long, rolling terrain, this course is a true test to any pro with its challenging various uneven lies. We have a feeling however, that play here should be a touch easier than what we saw last week’s at Doral.

The course was created back in 1972 by Larry Packard and doesn’t really offer much in the way of flat terrain. Innisbrook’s Copperhead course features two par-5 double doglegs which may help those players with the ability to get on the dance floor in two. Consisting of two daunting par-4s that line both sides of the 215-yard 17^th hole, the last stretch of holes is notoriously referred to as the “Snake Pit,” and, like the “Bear Trap” we saw a few weeks back, it certainly has a way of ruining a player’s round.

Innisbrook also played home to the JC Penney team event for 24 years before becoming the regular stop for this event in 2000.

Photo by InnisbrookGolfResort.com

Weather Forecast for Palm Harbor, FL (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (Mar 13) 62 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy/windy.
• Round 2: Friday (Mar 14) 72 degrees, 0% chance of rain, mostly sunny.
• Round 3: Saturday (Mar 15) 74 degrees, 0% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 4: Sunday (Mar 16) 77 degrees, 20% chance of rain, partly cloudy.

2013 Results

After firing a bogey free (65-67) weekend, and fighting off the charging Boo Weekley, Kevin Streelman eventually went on to win his first PGA TOUR event at last year’s Valspar Championship. Streelman’s smacked a perfect 5-iron to within six feet on 13, where he sealed the deal on that birdie and then dropped another 20-footer for birdie at 17 to run away with it.

Although only a sophomore on TOUR, Jordan Spieth is no stranger this course.  As a Rookie Speith tied for seventh here last year, which was enough to qualify him for Special Temporary status on TOUR – he later turned that into a full membership when he won the John Deere Classic. In the past 3 years we have seen 3 different players win their first TOUR event at Innisbrook and perhaps we can see it again this year.

Some of the names to watch this week include Russell Knox, Harris English and Graham DeLaet. Streelman hasn’t been too silent this year, making some noise in Hawaii in January when he tied for third at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.  However, last year’s champ hasn’t finished better than Top 30 in his last 3 starts.

Fantasy Notes

As mentioned in our WGC-Cadillac Championship recap, our fantasy gurus are averaging over $1.2 million in fantasy earnings per tournament (for the 10 tournaments played in 2014). Perhaps the biggest stat to hang our hat on is the only 8 of 70 missed-cuts, which means that our fantasy staff’s picks have made the cut (and earning money) 88.6% of the time.

This week we head back to reality with far less of the world’s top players making an appearance in the field, but believe us, this tournament will not be easy to pick. But fear not, we have some solid ideas of who may come out on top at the 2014 Valspar Championship, so check out our picks below for more.

Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1-3p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (NBC).
• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday- Sunday, noon-6 p.m. ET, Sunday, 1-7 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra mobile app by Golf Channel.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Picks and Odds to Win The 2014 Valspar Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Valspar Championship

• Jason Dufner (Golficity Odds 12/1): We loved the way Duf came out of round one last week looking poised to run away with the WGC title. However, although his game looked great in the early part of the tournament, he eventually slipped back to finish T9 at Doral (which isn’t all that bad giving the conditions).  Taking a deeper look reveals that Jason ranked T2 in fairways hit, which is a huge accomplishment on the newly designed course.  Meanwhile, at Innisbrook, Duf has posted five straight top 30s including a T10 in 2012. We think his game is good enough right now to win this tournament, so grab him as your go-to for this week.
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 15/1): Kuch is a cut-making (and hence fantasy) machine.  He recently shared a 36-hole lead at Doral before eventually dropping to T13. Matt already has four top 10s this season, he’s finished Top 15 in his last three starts here at Copperhead.  Normally a fantasy money maker, pick him if you haven’t used him much this year. On this course with this field, Kuch can do some damage.
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 22/1): We love the fact that this kid continues to stay in the hunt week in and week out. Spieth’s got the ability to win two to three tournaments this year if his game clicks during a round. Last week he posted a closing round 69 at Doral with the help of his putter (while just about everyone else was finishing in the mid-70’s). Jordan finished T7 at Copperhead in his debut last year and this year he’s staring down a field that he can possibly run away from.
• Harris English (Golficity Odds 27/1): Harris English’s game is way to good not to be considered this week. Some of you may want to gamble with rookie Chesson Hadley this week after his win in Puerto Rico, but our advice is to stick with English here. He’s 11-for-11 with six top 10s this year and is currently 4th in adjusted scoring.
• Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 35/1): Woodland first broke through in 2011 with a victory here at Copperhead. He was in the mix all last week but, like so many others, fell in late rounds to land a T16 at Doral. Gary leads the TOUR in total driving and could sneak up the leader board if he’s feeling good. Pick him lower if need someone new besides the Webb Simpson’s and Jim Furyk’s in the field.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Valspar Championship

• Luke Donald (Golficity Odds 50/1): Donald seems to be lurking around the T10 line a lot lately.  The former World No. 1 has played superbly here, with his resume showing a playoff win here in 2012 as well as a T6 (2010) and T4 (2013). So you may be thinking, why not pick this guy to win? Quick answer:  There are much better players in the field this go around. Regardless, still grab him as a high sleeper pick.
• Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 65/1): Haas tied his season-best with a T6 at the WGC-Cadillac last week where he led the field in strokes gained-putting and ranked second in par-4 scoring.  He hasn’t broke through in the T5 spot yet but something tells us he can be a dark horse to win this event.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship

• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 8/1): T4
• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 8/1): T25
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 15/1): T34
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 18/1):  T25
• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 22/1):  T2

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-Cadillac Championship

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 35/1): DNS (injury)
• Hunter Mahan (Golficity Odds 45/1): T9

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $12,279,489 (Average tournament winnings of $1,227,948).
• Winners picked: 3 selected picked out of 10 tournaments (30% winners picked in 2014).
• Top 10s: 26 out of 70 players picked (37.14% of players picked finished in Top 10).
• Top 3s: 9 out of 70 players picked (12.85% players picked finished in the Top 3).
• Missed Cuts: Only 8 out of 70 players (88.6% of the picks made the cut in 2014) .

Let us know what you think of this week’s fantasy golf predictions for the 2014 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook by leaving us your comments below.

(Cover Photo Credit)