Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Mayakoba Golf Classic
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Mayakoba Golf Classic
2018 Mayakoba Golf Classic Fantasy Preview
In sport words like ‘guts’ and ‘choking’ get tossed around a lot.
They can be attributes that set apart the winners from the losers, and in a game brain-maddening and confidence-shredding as golf, all three of those terms can be used to define those who get the job done and those who….well, don’t.
Take Bryson DeChambeau, for example. His gutsy victory at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open last week was his fourth in twelve PGA TOUR starts, and the fifth of a career which, age-wise, is still in its formative years.
He had a badly blistered hand but it didn’t matter: Bryson could see the finishing line, and this is a guy who doesn’t need to win from off the pace: the flatcap-wearing stud is more than happy to win from the front.
As he did in Nevada, with an eagle at 16 holding off the challenge of defending champion Patrick Cantlay and the fast-finishing Sam Ryder.
Whether you’re a traditionalist or a more progressive sort, there can be no doubt that Bryson’s scientific approach works at quirky venues like TPC Summerlin, and clearly there’s a link between his mathematical calculations and single length irons and playing well at altitude when club selection is key.
It really is a no-brainer, and you do wonder how many players on Tour are selling themselves short by not being a bit more dynamic and analytical in their approach to the game.
The PGA TOUR heads off on a trip to Mexico this week for the Mayakoba Golf Classic, an annual event but one this year without the traditional OHL sponsorship.
Cameron Champ lines up a putt on the 15th hole green during the final…
Cameron Champ lines up a putt on the 15th hole green during the final round of the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin on November 4, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
It’s been an incredible couple of weeks for our fantasy picks. First we had Sergio as our top dog at the Valderrama Masters a few weeks back, followed by our sleeper pick Xander Schauffele who won just two weeks ago at the WGC-HSBC.
This week, instead of running with the obvious picks of Spieth and Fowler, we opted for Bryson and wow did the dividends pay off.
Bryson DeChambeau poses with the champion’s trophy after winning the…
Bryson DeChambeau poses with the champion’s trophy after winning the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin on November 4, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
To boot, our top pick for the Turkish Airlines Open was Haotong Li, who with his runner up sudden death finish to Justin Rose, was an absolute fantasy weapon. In total, four of our six European Tour picks finished in the Top 23 including three Top-10s and a runner up.
The 2018 Mayakoba Golf Classic Field
Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler continue their early season progress south of the border, where they will be joined by Ryder Cup teammate Tony Finau.
Gary Woodland, with three consecutive top-10 finishes worldwide, will be looking to transform that form into dollars and a trophy this week, while the likes of Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel and Matt Kuchar will also have silverware in mind.
The rollcall of former Mayakoba winners includes defending champion Patton Kizzire, Charley Hoffman, Pat Perez and Graeme McDowell, while the impressive Web.com Tour graduates will be led by Sung-Jae Im and Cameron Champ.
One name that will be completely new to many is Adri Arnaus, a Spaniard who won the Grand Final on the Challenge Tour on Sunday; the equivalent of the Web.com’s TOUR Championship.
Rickie Fowler hits a tee shot on the 18th hole during the final round…
Rickie Fowler hits a tee shot on the 18th hole during the final round of the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin on November 4, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
From tropical jungle and thick mangroves to stunning views across the ocean, El Camaleon has something for everyone!
Located in the Playa del Carmen resort, this Greg Norman design winds its way through a variety of landscapes to ensure that the players, spectators and those watching at home on TV are treated to a visually stunning piece of real estate.
As a golf course, well, it’s not too taking, and since this event was moved to November from its original February slot the winning scores have improved to an average of -19.
Part of the reason for that is that the course’s main defense is the wind, and so if the breeze doesn’t whip up a storm coming off the Caribbean Sea then there really is nothing for the players to worry about.
Measuring 6,987 yards for its Par 70, El Camaleon looks like a Links course to some extent – the presence of Norman, a two-time British Open champion, on the design team is no coincidence.
The fairways, which are of an average size, and the smaller-than-average greens are Sea Isle Paspalum, and the putting surfaces don’t particularly run fast given the humidity in the area.
The Paspalum rough can be tricky to play from, there’s plenty of bunkers and minor water features to avoid, but all in all this is a nice trip for the players who will enjoy the sun on their backs in Playa del Carmen.
Patrick Rodgers of the United States plays his shot from the fifth…
Patrick Rodgers of the United States plays his shot from the fifth tee during the continuation of the third round of the OHL Classic at Mayakoba on November 12, 2017 in Playa del Carmen, Mexico. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Playa Del Carmen, Mexico
Other than a possible aberration on Friday, the weather is set rather fair for an excellent week of golf in Mexico.
The lead-up is dry and sunny, and that theme continues on Thursday with plenty of sunshine and temperatures at around 84 degrees.
Friday’s forecast features ‘scattered thunderstorms’, so if/when it rains we can expect the bursts to be rather heavy.
The good news is that the weekend should be far more agreeable, with sunny spells and temperatures tickling the 86 degree mark.
And the elephant in the room, the wind, appears to be in check too. Speeds of around 8 mph don’t keep the pros awake at night, and while these will likely be stronger on the coast it still won’t be enough to have any major impact on the golf.
As ever, these forecasts are subject to change, so keep your eyes peeled!
Last Year’s Results from the Mayakoba Golf Classic
After 54 holes of the then-named OHL Classic, Patton Kizzire and Rickie Fowler were four shots clear of the field heading into the final round.
At this point, most would probably back the classy Fowler over the inconsistent Kizzire to complete the job, but Kizzire – who would also win the Sony Open shortly after – held firm.
It was actually Fowler who would struggle, bogeying two of the opening five holes as Kizzire played the front nine in -3.
The opened up a healthy gap, and while Fowler rallied to play the back nine in -3, Kizzire simply played no-risk golf to card a 67 and take the spoils by one shot.
Si-Woo Kim made five birdies in a row on the front nine before a double bogey six at the fourteenth ended his slim hopes of getting into the mix.
The Korean took solo third ahead of Charles Howell III and Martin Piller in T4.
Highlights | Round 4 | OHL Classic
No Description
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Mayakoba Golf Classic this Week
This is your classic Fall Season slate, with plenty of contests to enter but prize money down somewhat on the main campaign which kicks into gear from February onward. But hey, that’s okay: this is still a great time to be building that bankroll.
- PGA $60k Club Twirl: There’s a $10k top prize up for grabs in this contest, and with just 1590 teams entered your probability of winning the big payday is a lot greater than it would be in the $150k Drive the Green contest. The top 15 win a minimum of $250.
- PGA $12k Albatross: Who doesn’t love a good single-entry contest!? Okay, there’s great risk involved but the upside is obvious. The top 10% of this 1,176 team affair doubles their $12 entry (minimum), and the winner trousers $1k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Mayakoba Golf Classic
The history books tell us that what you do off the tee at El Camaleon is largely irrelevant; Patton Kizzire found just 62.5% of fairways 12 months ago, and distance doesn’t seem much of a factor either with many tee shots played with irons over the big stick: only one player (Gary Woodland) had a tournament driving distance average of greater than 300 yards last year.
But we know the greens on this stretch are smaller than average, and that can mean only one thing: your iron game has to be very good, whether playing from the fairway or out of the rough.
Kizzire was very strong in this area in his title-winning effort, with a GIR count of 75%, given the number of fairways missed, meaning that he approached and scrambled very nicely indeed.
What else do we know about El Camaleon? There are a handful of correlating courses, and anybody who read our CIMB Classic preview will know that these are eerily accurate.
As a reminder, there are stacks of correlating winners between this event and the CIMB, Sony Open and Honda Classic. The likes of Kizzire, Justin Thomas, Pat Perez, Woodland, Fowler, Adam Scott, Russell Knox and Russell Henley have won two or more of these events, with plenty of high finishes in three or more.
Quite simply, the consistency of the results is far too prevalent to be written off as merely circumstantial.
Of course, the CIMB and Sony are coastal and often windy, and with the Honda Classic taking place in Florida there is often a stiff breeze in play too. With wind speeds expected to be down on the norm at El Camaleon this week we can take the links with a pinch of salt, but the tournaments outlined above should act as a handy guide nonetheless.
[membership level=”0″]
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Mayakoba Golf Classic
You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.
Already a member? Sign in Here.
[/membership]
[membership level=”1,2,3″]
Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Mayakoba Golf Classic
*This early in the season some players do not qualify enough stats to register a FPGP and GPFP.
Top Tier Pick #1:
Rickie Fowler (Odds: 9/1, FPPG: 113.5, GPFP: 133.93 Salary: $11,500)
It does feel slightly strange to be drafting Rickie Fowler as our main man this week.
He just doesn’t win often enough to warrant a seat at golf’s top table, despite his obvious talents.
Happily, this isn’t an elite-level golf tournament and Fowler is one of a very small handful of players who, shock result aside, look capable of getting the job done.
He’s won on the coast (Hero Challenge), on the Links (Scottish Open) and in the desert (Abu Dhabi HSBC), which shows that his game holds up well should the win come, and most pleasingly he took the spoils in our correlating Honda Classic back in 2017.
That was his last ‘proper’ win worldwide, which is a concern, but he’s playing so well right now that we can have every reason to be confident. Since getting engaged earlier in the year, Fowler has finished T12 at the PGA Championship and top-10s in each of his other three outings at the BMW Championship, TOUR Championship and last week’s Shriners.
Oh, and he was solo second here 12 months ago. It seems like we have convinced ourselves that he will get the job done in Mexico….
Key Stats (2018):
- Scoring Average – 8th
- Scrambling – 10th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 21st
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 99.0, GPFP: 79.20 Salary: $8,400)
Born in Texas but raised with dual American-Mexican heritage, Ancer has spoken of his pride at representing Mexico and his aim of taking the sport to new levels there. He will be chomping at the bit to get started at El Camaleon.
He might otherwise feel the pressure of such a situation, but a T9 finish here last year suggests the 27-year-old is fairly relaxed about such things.
Ancer has been playing out standing golf of late, recording five top-10 finishes since the Quicken Loans National; four of which have been top-fives.
The most recent of those came just last week at the Shriners, and so he couldn’t really be better placed to deliver yet another fine showing here.
In a mid-term election week in which the Republicans are expected to be well beaten, there could be plenty for Mexico to cheer come Sunday.
Key Stats (2019):
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 4th
- SG: Putting – 4th
- Total Driving – 23rd
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Sungjae Im (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 73.6, GPFP: 58.90 Salary: $7,800)
Way back at the start of last season, the Web.com Tour boys ventured off on their annual sojourn to the Bahamas.
They have two events on the island, and last year Sungjae Im won one and finished T2 in the other.
The Korean also spent his formative years playing at Jeju Island, so there’s plenty he knows about windy island golf even at such an early age!
This is relevant because El Camaleon offers many similarities to those conditions mentioned above, and Im will presumably feel at home as he winds his way around the ocean-front holes.
The 20-year-old has taken to life nicely on the PGA TOUR with a T4 at the Safeway Open and T15 at the Shriners, where he closed out 65-69-65. It would be foolish to expect too much, too soon from a young guy still learning his craft, but events like this, the RSM Classic and the Sony Open will be earmarked by many for an Im ‘power-play’.
Key Stats (2019):
- Total Driving – 20th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 35th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 46th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Kevin Chappell (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 72.8, GPFP: 80.11 Salary: $7,500)
As we’ve mentioned on numerous occasions in this column, sometimes your drafts can be dictated by price alone.
And so we’re happy to take an outstanding talent on, at a bargain price, who has won at a Greg Norman design before.
Chappell won the Valero Texas Open back in 2017 at The Shark’s TPC San Antonio, and as a Californian its no surprise to see him do well in windy conditions.
A decent Asian Swing – four of his eight rounds were 67 or better – sets up the 32-year-old for a campaign which he hope will be an improvement on 2017/18.
His 2017 form got him into the Presidents Cup team, but a fallow 2018 has given Chappell the feeling of a forgotten man on Tour.
But lest we forget, he scored top-10s at the comparable Pebble Beach and at the British Open, so Chappell could represent the ultimate sleeper at El Camaleon.
Key Stats (2018):
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 26th
- SG: Approach – 35th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 36th
Low-Tier Pick:
Brian Gay (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 71.5, GPFP: 57.20 Salary: $6,900)
At 46, Gay is possibly just ticking down the years until he can kick back and relax on the Champions Tour, but realistically he should still tournaments like the Mayakoba Classic as a chance to make some serious cash while he waits.
Born in Texas and schooled in Florida, this is a guy who is no stranger to windy golf. That is reflected in strong performances here and in the Sony Open, and lest we forget he actually won this tournament back in 2008 albeit at a different venue.
Gay can still mix it with the young guns too, finishing T9 at the Phoenix Open last year and solo third and T6 at the RSM Classic and RBC Heritage respectively in 2017.
He seems to enjoy life at El Camaleon too, with rounds of 64 in both of his last two visits to the course.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 19th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 25th
- Birdie Average – 43rd
Sleeper Pick for the Mayakoba Golf Classic
Kevin Kisner (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: NA , GPFP: NA Salary: $7,700)
He hasn’t played for a while, and hasn’t the best of records at El Camaleon, so you can understand why the sportsbooks are giving Kisner a wide berth this week.
But clearly he’s one of the most talented players in this field, and a guy who has finished T2 at the British Open and T12 at the PGA Championship in the past few months clearly cannot be written off.
Kiz has shown a liking or the Sony Open, AT&T Pebble Beach and RSM Classic, among others, over the years, so there’s no real reason why this fairly straightforward coastal test won’t appeal.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 13th
- Scrambling – 57th
- Scoring Average – 79th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Mayakoba Golf Classic
J.J. Spaun (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 75.9, GPFP: 60.70 Salary: $7,500)
Nobody was better in the SG: Approach category than J.J. Spaun at Shriners, and if his irons are in similarly strong fettle in Mexico then he should go equally well once more.
With such small greens at El Camaleon, Spaun’s accuracy will hand him a considerable advantage over many in the field who have to scramble and chip their way back into position.
Occasionally the 28-year-old has shown glimpses that he can win on Tour, including a T2 finish at the RSM Classic and T3 at the Byron Nelson, ad so in the kind of ball-striking form he is in right now we have to assume his chances this week are as strong as they have ever been.
Key Stats (2019):
- SG: Approach – 12th
- Total Birdies – 15th
- Scrambling – 79th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
[/membership]
Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for Mayakoba Golf Classic with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist’s New GTS Driver Lineup Spotted on Tour
Streamsong Unveils “Bone Valley”: A Bold New Name and Logo for Its Highly Anticipated Fifth Course
Titleist Introduces Limited-Edition Oil Can Finish on T-Series Irons
FIRST LOOK: Titleist’s New GTS Driver Lineup Spotted on Tour
6 Big Changes Coming to the PGA TOUR
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
We Played This Old Golf Course Where Thomas Edison Was A Member
Are You MEASURING Your Golf Swing Correctly? (This Can Help)
Zach Johnson Explains Why He Didn’t Pick Bryson DeChambeau for the Ryder Cup
Justin Thomas FIRES Coach before Ryder Cup…Who’s Next?
