European Tour Fantasy Golf Predictions – Honma Hong Kong Open

2018 Honma Hong Kong Open Preview

The 2018 European Tour campaign came to an end on Sunday with former Masters champion Danny Willett taking the spoils at the DP World Tour Championship – ending his two-and-a-half year trophy drought. Class is permanent, and all that.

Meanwhile, Francesco Molinari won the Race to Dubai Series by virtue of bettering Tommy Fleetwood’s effort in the desert; how fitting it was for those two great friends to battle it out for the prize.

Fans of the Tour won’t have to wait long for the 2019 season to start; it’s this week, in fact!

Okay, so the Hong Kong Open isn’t what we would call a top-class event by any means, but a top-heavy field has been bolstered by the likes of Fleetwood, Sergio Garcia and Patrick Reed, whose flirtation with the European Tour continues.

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We might be inclined to put our clubs away until the New Year, because the Hong Kong Golf Club in Fanling, which is this week’s host, is not some kind of new season jolly by any means.

It is perilously short at just 6,700 yards for its Par of 70, and these are some of the tightest tree-lined fairways you are likely to see anywhere on a pro tour. This is a plotter’s course and a bit of a grind, so Reed and co will need to bring their A Game this week.

The track is actually a composite of three different courses, namely the Old, New and Eden, and a handful of holes from each form this championship track. Six of these are doglegs, so accuracy off the tee is paramount.

There are only two Par 5s but they are beatable; defending champion Wade Ormsby played them in -6 last year, and with average winning scores creeping into the low teens under par clearly the bulk of the damage needs to be done here.

Otherwise, making par and moving on for many of the Par 4s, including the water-heavy 18th, is key.

What other factors should gamers be considering ahead of their Hong Kong Open draft? Well, we’re certainly interested in course form – this is a unique track, by European Tour standards, and so previous experience is welcome.

And what about motivation? A large number in the field will have missed out on the last few Race to Dubai events….does that serve as a kick up the backside ahead of the new campaign?

And what about those who have had a busy itinerary this year? Tommy Fleetwood, when interviewed after the DP World Tour Championship, looked absolutely shattered. Given that he enjoys playing at Fanling he is of course a potential champion, but has he simply run out of gas?

These are all ifs, buts and maybes of course, so we’ll leave you with two other tidbits of information to consider: firstly, three of the last four winners of the Hong Kong Open have been from Australia.

Secondly, there is one of those bizarre, not-sure-why style links between Hong Kong GC and Crans-sur-Sierre, home of the European Masters. Miguel Angel-Jimenez, Scott Hend and Colin Montgomerie have won at both, while the likes of Matteo Manassero, Matt Fitzpatrick and many others have compiled top fives at both.

So, who makes our draft this week?

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This Week’s Honma Hong Kong Open Fantasy Picks & Predictions

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This Week’s Honma Hong Kong Open Fantasy Picks

Sergio Garcia – $11,000 – It’s third time lucky for us and Sergio this week, and he’s on board because, to us at least, he appears to be the most likely of the ‘big three’ in the field.

It’s unlikely that Patrick Reed has played much of his golf on courses like this, and he will surely have a hangover from his efforts on Sunday when he failed dismally in contention at the DP World Tour Championship.

And as mentioned, Tommy Fleetwood looks like he needs a lie down in a darkened room such is his level of fatigue; not to be flying to the other side of the world from his England home.

We’ve drafted Sergio these past two weeks, and while he hasn’t been able to get the job done we can at least reflect on decent enough efforts with T2 at the Nedbank Challenge and T9 at last week’s Tour Championship. At least with the Spaniard you know you will get a good run for your money.

A former champion at Crans-sur-Sierre and another tree-lined layout at Valderrama, the course should suit, and while he was T19 on debut here 12 months ago we would expect a significant improvement on that from Sergio this week.

Jason Scrivener – $9,500 – The Aussie has been playing some steady, consistent golf these past few months, and in a weak field that may just pay dividends in Hong Kong.

Scrivener has posted six top-25 finishes in his last eight starts, and while that doesn’t sound mind-blowing it is a good sign ahead of a trip to a course that should suit his game.

The face that he can finish T22 at a tight and fiddly layout like Valderrama, before recording a T14 return at an out-and-out bomber fest like the Gary Player course in Sun City for the Nedbank Challenge, shows that his first-class ball-striking is travelling nicely.

There has been a theme of first-time Tour winners from Australia in this event, with Hend, Brazel and Ormsby all bagging their maiden title at Fanling since 2014. Could Scrivener join the club this week?

Ricardo Gouveia – $8,000 – This Hong Kong Golf Club course appears to be the perfect layout for Gouveia to finally get off the mark with a European Tour win.

He’s a short and steady hitter who will plot his way around the course, and recent good form at a higher level is a notable angle in.

He bagged a top-ten at the high quality British Masters, was T7 in his penultimate start to that at the Portugal Masters, and in his last outing finished a creditable T16 at the Valderrama Masters; a course which, on the face of it, has similarities to Fanling.

David Lipsky – $7,500 – Another former champion at Crans-sur-Sierre, David Lipsky has shown signs of improvement lately.

He finished T34 at the British Masters despite a second round of 78, and then followed up with another confidence-boosting T22 at the Valderrama Masters.

The American is another who bolsters that European Masters link, having won there and owning a T5 finish at Fanling in 2016.

That performance included two rounds of 66, so we can say with some confidence that this is a layout that does suit Lipsky’s game when he is in confident mood.

John Catlin – $7,400 – This is something of a curveball pick as he’s a player we don’t know a huge amount about, but John Catlin deserves respect in this field given that he has three wins on the Asian Tour in 2018 alone.

These past few months have been particularly good for the American. He picked up the biggest paycheck of his career when winning the Yeangder TPC, and then followed that with a classy T22 at the CIMB Classic, where he was tied with the likes of Cameron Smith and one shot ahead of Xander Schauffele.

The 28-year-old looks poised to step up in class in 2019, and this would be a fantastic calling card if he could land another victory on Asian soil this week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout – $6,700 – We need a bargain pick to balance the books, and were delighted to see this talented South African in among the also-rans.

Having watched his development closely this season, we genuinely believe the 24-year-old is destined for bigger and better things.

Okay, so he hasn’t contended at the sharp end of an event as yet, but twelve top-30 finishes in 26 starts this term highlights that he is versatile enough to play well in any conditions.

A season-long GIR stat of 66% from 87 rounds is high-quality stuff, and Bezuidenhout continues to throw in low rounds here and there: 66 at the Czech Masters, 66-65 to start at the Denmark Masters, 67 to close at the eye-catching European Masters, plus 68-69 at the ever-difficult Valderrama; and those are all within his last seven starts.

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Cover photo via Instagram