Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The Masters

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Masters

2019 Masters Fantasy Preview

Now that’s a good week in golf. On Monday, Corey Conners was just another talented young golfer looking to make his way in the sport, and he managed to wriggle through a six-man play-off to book a place at the Valero Texas Open.

Corey Connors plays a shot during a practice round prior to the…

Corey Connors plays a shot during a practice round prior to the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented By MasterCard at Bay Hill Club and Lodge on March 05, 2019 in Orlando, Florida. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Less than a week later, he’s earned his maiden PGA TOUR title and earned his first ever showing at the Masters.

The Canadian’s Sunday scorecard at TPC San Antonio was your classic rookie winner. Early adrenaline saw him birdie four of the opening five holes, but the realization of what he might be able to achieve caught up with soon after.

Four straight bogeys, wiping out his hard-fought lead, would have ended the challenge of many a weaker player, but not Conners, who showed fight of the highest class to birdie six holes on the back nine to win from two against a resurgent Charley Hoffman.

The champion has well and truly earned his crack at Augusta National this week!

But who will slip into the Green Jacket that Patrick Reed has been looking after for the past year?

Can Rory finally complete the career grand slam, or can Tiger produce one of the most captivating and emotional major wins in the sport’s history?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results 

Last week was all about Corey Connors, a first time PGA TOUR winner who just punched his ticket to Augusta.

As fantasy players we didn’t see this one coming, that’s for sure, but we still want to congratulate Corey on an incredible week!

Corey Conners holds up the winner’s trophy following the final round…

Corey Conners holds up the winner’s trophy following the final round of the Valero Texas Open on April 7, 2019 at the TPC San Antonio Oaks Course in San Antonio, TX. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Our top pick last week was Kuchar, who ended up T7 and just couldn’t get anything going on Sunday with his closing 69. In total, we missed two cuts out of our seven picks.

Now on to the big money games at Augusta!

The 2019 Masters Field

This will be the joint-smallest field of a Masters edition since 1997, with Conners joining the 86-strong line-up in Georgia.

There will be 17 players making their debut at Augusta, and stacks more who know this place like their back of their hands; even if taming it is an altogether different matter.

Tiger Woods of the United States talks with his caddie Joe LaCava on…

Tiger Woods of the United States talks with his caddie Joe LaCava on the 11th hole during a practice round prior to The Masters at Augusta National Golf Club on April 08, 2019 in Augusta, Georgia. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Repping for the senior statesmen will be the likes of Fred Couples, Vijay Singh and Sandy Lyle, while at the other end of the age spectrum the fantastically-named Devon Bling (19), Takumi Kanaya (20) and Viktor Hovland (21) might just be setting off on a journey that one day leads to Masters glory.

Otherwise, well, you know the score. This is the best players in the world battling it out for arguably golf’s most famous prize.

This Week’s Course Preview

Among the beauty of the pretty flowers and the lush green spaces lies the beast at the heart of Augusta National.

This is a golf course where nature forms a key part of the landscape, with glorious flowerbeds filled with colorful Azaleas and thick tree-lines dancing along the fairway edges.

As far as the players are concerned, that’s where the beauty ends.

No. 12 at Amen Corner is shown during the first round of the Masters…

No. 12 at Amen Corner is shown during the first round of the Masters at Augusta National on Thursday, April 9, 2015. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Because as soon as they step onto the first tee, the complexity of this classic Bobby Jones track reveals itself. Given a couple of makeovers from two of the best in the business, Rees Jones and Tom Fazio, Augusta remains a national treasure at the pinnacle of this sport that we love.

Holes have been lengthened in recent times to bring the total yardage up to 7,435 yards for its Par 72, and thanks to the unique contours and seeding of the fairways – with the grass laying away from most greens – it actually plays longer with reduced ball roll.

Without wanting to sound terribly ageist, perhaps that’s why the younger players tend to thrive here!

Fairways have also been narrowed in modern times, but remember that Augusta is not a course blessed with devilish rough; it’s pine straw that greets any errant tee shots. Indeed, the main obstacle from tee-to-green are the trees, and as the likes of Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson has shown us in the past finding creative ways to extricate yourself from a predicament is key.

The key defense of the course are these fantastic green complexes, which are the archetypal ‘green within a green’ landscapes that give the players nightmares. Many of the greens contain plateaus, shelves and contrasting sections, so simply making GIR isn’t going to get the job done. You’ve got to land your approaches on the right part of the green; a skill in itself.

Switched from Bermuda to Bentgrass, the greens will run at around 13.5 on the stimpmeter this week; lightning fast!

Let’s take a look at each hole in turn:

Hole 1: Tea Olive (Par 4, 445 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.279 (3rd)

This is the classic Augusta dogleg, sweeping from left to right, with thick tree coverage protecting both sides of the fairway. Get a good tee shot away and the players are left with a mid-range iron into a green that slopes dramatically from back to front, with a break of some 8ft possible should you land in one of the tougher parts. With natural nerves at play on the first hole of a major, this is a pant-shredding way to start.

Hole 2: Pink Dogwood (Par 5, 575 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.807 (15th)

There aren’t many ‘gimmie’ birdie opportunities at Augusta, but this is one of them and the pressure is on to take advantage of the first longer hole on the course. This is the classic second shot hole, a roughly 250-yard approach into a green that slides quickly from left to right.

Hole 3: Flowering Peach (Par 4, 350 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 3.929 (14th)

The easiest of the Par 4s, the key defense of the shortest ‘standard’ hole on the course is the small L-shaped green, which is protected by bunkers and shaved run-off areas that will shove errant approaches miles away from the pin.

Hole 4: Flowering Crab Apple (Par 3, 240 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 3.318 (2nd)

A hole where Augusta really bares its teeth, the players are greeted with a 220-yard carry over bunkers protecting the front and flanks of the green, and depending on pin placement shorter hitters might even have to take a rescue club into it. Devilish.

Hole 5: Magnolia (Par 4, 455 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.164 (6th)

An uphill, doglegging Par 4 with two deep bunkers sat practically on the fairway, the fifth is all about getting a good drive away. The tiered green is another nuisance to overcome, and just 26 birdies were made here in 2018; as opposed to 64 bogeys.

Hole 6: Juniper (Par 3, 180 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 3.129 (8th)

You might think that a 180-yard Par 3 is food-and-drink to these players, but that’s before you seen the green complex which features three separate tiers. If the pin is placed back right than they will also have to overcome the dramatic slope which feeds to the front left.

Hole 7: Pampas (Par 4, 450 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.207 (4th)

The tough stretch continues with what is the narrowest fairway on the golf course, with a sight-line of thick Georgian pines providing the classic ‘tunnel’ look and feel. Even with a good drive, this is a contoured green protected almost 360° by five bunkers.

Hole 8: Yellow Jasmine (Par 5, 570 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.718 (16th)

Get a good tee shot away and you might be in business on the eighth, although the elevated green does not mean that GIR is a given. Shorter hitters may lay up, while the longer bombers can be caught out by the bunker on the right-hand side of the fairway.

Hole 9: Carolina Cherry (Par 4, 460 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.143 (7th)

The front nine concludes with a hole where a long and accurate tee shot is essential; anything other than a good hit down the right side can lead to approaches being blocked out by the trees. Two big bunkers protect the front of the green, as does a run-off area which will reject any balls that land upon it.

Hole 10: Camellia (Par 4, 495 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.082 (11th)

The scene of Bubba’s famous hooked approach on his way to the 2012 triumph, thick trees line the fairways and the green slopes conclusively from right to left. Big drives have the advantage of being bounded down the fairway if they catch the slope.

Hole 11: White Dogwood (Par 4, 505 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.40 (1st)

And so Amen Corner begins with arguably the toughest hole on the course. It’s a hole where players almost give up on birdie by laying up to a safe section of fairway directly to the right of the green, rather than attacking the small surface which is protected by a large pond. As if that wasn’t problematic enough, this is one of the tightest landing areas off the tee on the course.

Hole 12: Golden Bell (Par 3, 155 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 3.107 (3rd)

This may be the shortest hole on the course, but the players aren’t let off lightly by a tiny green that is protected by bunkers front and back and Rae’s Creek running ominously along the front as well. A notorious cross wind only adds to the drama.

Hole 13: Azalea (Par 5, 510 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.614 (18th)

Amen Corner is swiftly followed by the easiest hole on the course. The green is protected by a thin water hazard and a series of bunkers, but if the players can get a good tee shot away they will be confident of setting up an eagle putt; birdie, of which there were 128 here in 2018, is far more likely.

Hole 14: Chinese Fir (Par 4, 440 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.057 (12th)

This is perhaps the easiest tee shot on the course with no sand to worry about, but the approach is a different matter altogether, with a heavily-tiered green the key defence based upon pin placement.

Hole 15: Firethorn (Par 5, 530 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.675 (17th)

Take on the green in two or lay up? That’s the main question here, with longer hitters able to find the dancefloor in two if they are accurate off the tee and avoid the pond prowling at the front of the green. Shorter hitters will lay up but a red number is on the cards here nonetheless.

Hole 16: Redbud (Par 3, 170 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 3.029 (12th)

The green slopes dramatically from right to left here, with upper and lower shelves affecting the level of difficulty based on pin position. If the flag is on the lower shelf at the back of the green, the players are faced with a tough approach.

Hole 17: Nandina (Par 4, 440 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.171 (5th)

Sadly, the famous Eisenhower tree did not survive a storm and had to be removed, which makes driving a whole lot easier. A left-to-right tee shot gives a good angle to attack a small green that is often said to be one of the quickest on the course.

Hole 18: Holly (Par 4, 465 yards)

Stroke Average in 2018: 4.10 (10th)

With the Green Jacket in your midst, the leader will have to hit a nerve-less drive to a fairway flanked by sand left and trees right. The tiered green is protected by two deep bunkers, and with the pressure on all sorts of danger can be found on eighteen.

Weather Forecast for Augusta, GA

There is an incredibly unsettled feel to the weather this week at Augusta.

The early forecast suggests there is heavy rainfall and storms in the area on Monday and into Tuesday; check social media for updates on those.

The good news is that Wednesday looks more settled and with sunny spells too, which may help to dry out any wet surfaces in readiness for Thursday’s start.

The first day could be sunny with cloudy spells and with top temperatures of 82°F, if the forecast is correct. Wind speeds will peak at 13 mph.

Friday’s forecast is for ‘scattered showers’, with the rain likely to come in the morning according to the predictions. The mercury could reach 84°F, with the wind calming to 9 mph.

Both of the weekend days appear to have a similar forecast, and unfortunately the dreaded word ‘thunderstorms’ is in the mix. There’s likely to be some rain around, with temperatures at 82°F and the wind getting up on Sunday to around 13 mph, if the predictions are correct.

Last Year’s Results from the Masters

Winning the Masters is hard enough, but winning it from wire-to-wire is even more tricky. The extent of Patrick Reed’s achievement 12 months ago should not be underestimated, then.

Okay, he didn’t quite win from wire-to-wire, but a second round of 66 saw him grab a stranglehold on the tournament that he never relinquished.

Reed hasn’t been a prolific winner on Tour in recent times, so he must have been feeling the pressure, but he rarely showed it. A third round of 67 was plenty to good enough to give him a three-shot lead over Rory McIlroy heading into Sunday’s final round, with the rest of the field five back.

It is very easy to throw away a handsome cushion on championship Sunday at Augusta, but Reed did not betray any nerves. Okay, so he bogeyed the first, but we know how tough that hole is on any given day.

From there, mistakes were few and far between, and despite the best efforts of Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth – who closed with 67 and 64 respectively – Reed did enough to claim the Green Jacket by a single stroke.

Fowler and Spieth finished up in solo second and third, with Jon Rahm fourth and Bubba Watson, Cameron Smith, Henrik Stenson and McIlroy bunched up in T5.

Patrick Reed’s Final Round in Under Three Minutes

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Masters this Week

There’s a fantastic slate of contests for the Masters, as you might expect. There’s all of the usual suspects, as well as the much-loved (for obvious reasons) Fantasy Millionaire and plenty of other contests named after Augusta’s holes. Here’s two of the best to try.

• PGA $4m Fantasy Millionaire: Well, it would be rude not to, wouldn’t it? For $20 entry, the winner here will become an overnight millionaire…not bad if you can make your love for DFS pay in that way! The top 55 teams will earn a handsome $1k at the minimum.
• PGA $100k Golden Bell: If you really want to make your Masters knowledge pay, how about this single entry contest? For $12, you could win the $10k top prize or instead top up your bankroll with some other handy payouts.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Masters

To win a Masters title, the champion will need to showcase a series of knowns and a set of unknowns.

First, of the ‘knowns’ they will need to drive well: Reed found 73% of fairways from an average tee shot length of 298 yards, while Sergio Garcia in 2017 ranked second for both Driving Accuracy and Distance.

And while making GIR alone isn’t enough to take care of business, it’s certainly a decent help and enough to compile a decent score; Reed ranked 21st and Garcia 2nd for this stat.

Which players are comfortable chipping onto tiered greens? Who putts well on fast Bentgrass?

These are all of the knowns we need to consider, and as for the unknowns occasionally we have to ask who has got the intestinal fortitude to win possibly golf’s most vaunted title?

There are, happily, some insights which can help. Each of the last eleven Masters champions has been under the age of 40, for example, while ten of the last eleven have a top-30 to their name at Augusta in the past.

Think about the course make-up, and refer to our breakdown of each hole earlier in this preview. It is imperative to play the Par 5s well, because on the shorter holes there is very much a feeling of battening down the hatches and making par, rather than taking on the flags head-on.

If Par 5 performance is key, the ability to go long and straight off the tee is crucial.

With some potentially softening rain in the air, and a relative lack of wind, this could be an easier edition of the Masters than we are used to; don’t forget, Reed won in -15 last year. If this is less than a grind that is typical, we would certainly expect the leaderboard to be crowded with classy operators at the top.

Don’t forget to utilize our Key Fantasy Stats Tool which is updated each week to filter player stats among the current field only. In this example, if you were looking for players at a minimum cost of $7,000, Scrambling percentage between 65-75%, and with average drives between 275-300 yards, you’d get filtered down to these three players. 

It’s a great tool to get an edge over the rest!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Masters

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Masters

Top Tier Pick #1:  

Rory McIlroy (Odds: 7/1, FPPG: 98.3, GPFP: 117.95 Salary: $11,600)

This would be the career grand slam for Rory, of course, and so there are likely to be nerves around should the Irishman find himself in contention for the Green Jacket.

But you sense confidence isn’t in short supply for a young man who won the PLAYERS Championship in his penultimate start, and who has carded seven consecutive top-10 finishes.

McIlroy is driving the ball as well he has ever done at the moment, and that is a manifestation of his positive frame of mind.

And his Achilles heel, that is the flat stick, seems to be tempered somewhat at Augusta. He seems to prefer Bentgrass greens, despite evidence to the contrary, and also tends to putt better on slick surfaces rather than grainy greens. That must be another point of confidence.

For a player of his talents that has never slipped on the Green Jacket, you might assume that Rory’s record at Augusta National is below par, but not a bit of it. Five consecutive top-10s is as good as it gets around here, and few know this set-up as well as the world number three.

The scene is set then, because quite frankly there is nobody with stronger claims of victory than McIlroy this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 1st
• Scoring Average – 3rd
• SG: Approach – 12th

Top-Tier Pick #2:  

Francesco Molinari (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 73.9, GPFP: 76.86 Salary: $8,600)

It’s not an exact science, indeed it’s an opinion rather than a bare-faced fact, but you would think that somebody that has won a major before is in a better space mentally to repeat the feat compared to somebody that has never tasted elite-level glory before.

It doesn’t always work out like that – see Jordan Spieth’s collapse here, or Patrick Reed’s balls of steel – but there’s enough of a workable concept there.

And so Francesco Molinari is on the radar. The Italian won the British Open last summer, and you might be forgiven for thinking that he is a Links specialist having also shone in the European Ryder Cup team.

But the 36-year-old has won at tree-lined layouts in the past, so don’t think that the foliage counts him out just yet. A winner at Wentworth and Sheshan GC in Shanghai, Molinari hits the ball long and straight, so trees don’t really faze him.

His record at Augusta is so-so – 20-33-50 from his last three trips, but it has to be stressed that he has been playing the best golf of his life since the summer.

This is a man reborn, with new swing thoughts and the major confidence to match. Molinari can thrive this week.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 225-250 yards – 19th
• SG: Putting – 23rd
• Total Driving – 79th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:  

Matt Kuchar (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 89.9, GPFP: 112.38 Salary: $7,900)

Could this be classed as the best season of Kuch’s career? It’s certainly right up there, what with the two tournament wins and a run to the final at the WGC-Dell Match Play.

Like all the best players, he seems to save some of his best golf for the majors. Kuchar now has top-10s in all four of the big ones, and eleven in total, with four of those coming at Augusta. Nine consecutive cuts made in this event are proof positive that the layout suits his eye.

Some might query his lack of length off the tee as a detriment to any hopes of sliding into the Green Jacket, but Kuch can send it 300+ yards when required and has the benefit of being straight with it; the world number 16 ranks 18th for Total Driving on Tour this term.

They say that life begins at 40, and Kuchar has certainly done his best so far this season to proof that theory correct. Winning the Masters would be the ultimate underlining of the fact.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th
• Scoring Average – 11th

Mid-Tier Pick #2: 

Webb Simpson (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 75.1, GPFP: 81.88 Salary: $7,400)

For a player of all his obvious talent, Webb Simpson is another who has never quite taken to Augusta National.

He’s made seven trips and only served up one top-20 finish, and that is why he will be so under-appreciated with both the sportsbooks and DFS gamers this week.

It’s a surprise especially given that he has thrived at TPC Sawgrass, a track not all that dissimilar to Augusta, and given that his precise ball-striking seems tailor-made for the assignment.

So we’ll take a wager that a player that excels from tee-to-green finally shows his true colors in Georgia.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 12th
• Scoring Average – 17th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 29th

Low-Tier Pick: 

Charles Howell III (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 85.5, GPFP: 97.42 Salary: $7,000)

He has the titles (maybe not as many as he’d like), the respect of his peers and lots and lots of prize money to his name.

But there’s one thing missing from Charles Howell III’s resumé, and that’s a really meaningful turn in a major.

He has just one top-10 in the PGA Championship to his name, and he’s only played at Augusta once in the past ten years!

His record at the track is fairly average but there are five top-30s here, including a pair of top-20s, so there’s no reason for Chucky’s reluctance to turn up at his home course.

Four top-20s in a row on the Tour were followed by a solid T35 in THE PLAYERS, and that’s the kind of form we’d expect ahead of a strong Masters showing.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 2nd
• Total Driving – 12th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 18th

Sleeper Pick for the Masters

Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 82.4, GPFP: 68.38 Salary: $7,700)

When you look at his results this season, you would expect Patrick Cantlay’s consistency to be rewarded with a ‘W’ soon enough.

He’s notched four top-10s – and seven top-25s overall – from nine starts, and his overall body of stats are particularly impressive too.

Growing up on the West Coast, Cantlay is comfortable on quick Bentgrass greens and he doesn’t seem to mind tree-lined fairways either with a series of good showings on courses roughly fitting the Augusta profile.

The pieces of the puzzle are coming together for the 27-year-old, and now he has gotten the customary debutant’s missed cut out of the way at Augusta he can kick on and deliver something much more convincing this week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 7th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th
• Greens in Regulation – 16th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Masters

Cameron Smith (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 78.2, GPFP: 76.962 Salary: $7,400)

A criticism of the young Australian is that he simply isn’t a prolific enough winner; indeed, he’s never won a strokeplay event on American soil.

And while his triumph in the Zurich Classic is a nod to his ability to concentrate on the task in hand in unusual surroundings, his back-to-back wins in his home Australian PGA Championship at least show that the 25-year-old has plenty of guts and character when the pressure is on.

But, yes, he needs to start winning before he’s consigned to the ‘young talent’ file, rather than the PGA TOUR winner category.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 17th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 19th
• SG: Approach – 35th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.896%” bar_text=”6 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”22.07%” bar_text=”34 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”35.71%” bar_text=”55 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”13.64%” bar_text=”3 out of 22 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”9.09%” bar_text=”2 out of 22 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”76.62%” bar_text=”118 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for The Masters with other Premium Members.

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