Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The US Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the US Open

2019 US Open Fantasy Preview

Talk about playing your way into form for a major.

To be honest, Rory McIlroy has been crushing it for months now, but to play the weekend in 64-61 at a Hamilton G&CC track that was a solid enough test is a marker of how well the Irishman is hitting the ball right now.

His win at the Canadian Open was the sixteenth of his PGA TOUR career, and 25th worldwide. McIlroy will surely be well fancied for this week’s assignment….

The US Open returns to the Pebble Beach Links this week for the first time since 2010, and if Graeme McDowell’s winning score that week is anything to go by – even par – then we could be in for a classic edition of the major in California.

The USGA has been under pressure to deliver a ‘proper’ US Open since Brooks Koepka took Erin Hills to the cleaners two years ago, and so a return to Pebble Beach could not be better timed for that organization. The wind will get up, the rough will be thick and juicy and we should be in for the ultimate test of all-round golf – exactly how the US Open should be.

Forget the gentle climes of the AT&T Pebble Beach – the pro-am event where the players get to play 36 holes with Bill Murray. This will be major golf at its very best.

Tiger Woods of the United States and Bryson DeChambeau of the United…

Tiger Woods of the United States and Bryson DeChambeau of the United States stand on the sixth green during a practice round prior to the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach Golf Links on June 10, 2019 in… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Last Week’s Fantasy Results 

It was all Rory last week in Canada, as the 4-time major champion steamrolled the field to a 7-shot victory. 

Our shining star last week was Shane Lowry, our top sleeper pick, who finished T2 behind his fellow countryman.

Overall, in our main picks we managed to make 6/7 cuts and our Top Pick was Dustin Johnson (T20), who struggled on day one with a 71 and couldn’t claw back.

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland poses for a photo with the trophy…

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland poses for a photo with the trophy after winning the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club on June 09, 2019 in Hamilton, Canada. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

The 2019 US Open Field

As you are probably already aware, there are stacks of different criteria for qualifying for the US Open, which is why we get to enjoy such an eclectic and diverse field for this major.

The primary focus is on the top-60 in the OWGR, which guarantees that the finest players on the planet will tee up at Pebble Beach.

Then there were the various sectional qualifying heats around the globe, as well as those who performed best in the U.S. Amateur series.

Champions of the other three majors in the past five years are exempt, as are the last three PLAYERS Championship winners, and there’s a whole other bunch of qualifying criteria that are too in-depth to go into here!

All you need to know is that the US Open field is jam-packed with most of the best players in the world, with a sprinkling of veterans, youngsters and the finest amateurs into the bargain.

Brooks Koepka of the United States plays his shot from the 17th tee…

Brooks Koepka of the United States plays his shot from the 17th tee during the first round of the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club on June 06, 2019 in Hamilton, Canada. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

The Pebble Beach Links: home to some of the most spectacular holes in golf.

It is used on the PGA TOUR circuit each year of course for the pro-am event which bears its name, but the idea there is to make the layout as accessible as possible for players of all standards.

At the US Open, the emphasis will be on a full frontal assault on the all-round golfing abilities of all in the field.

It will play at around 7,040 yards for its Par 71 – down from the Par 72 for the pro-am – with one of the Par 5s changed to a Par 4 for the week.

The other features of the layout will be the same: this is a Links in name and style, with wide open spaces and a buffeting from the ocean breeze that drives in from the west.

There are some fairly narrow chutes of fairway to tackle, with water in play on nine holes, and along with the howling breeze the other key defense are the tiny Poa Annua greens – these are, generally, the smallest surfaces that are used on the Tour. Many are elevated too, which hardly helps matters.

Gamers should also note that Pebble Beach can play slightly soft in its normal spring timeslot in the schedule; this week, with plenty of dry weather in recent times, it will play much firmer and faster.

Here’s a quick hole-by-hole guide as to what the players can expect:

Hole 1 (Par 4, 380 yards) – The key feature here is the severe doglegging fairway, which turns at almost 90° to the right. Players will look to hit an iron to the section where the fairway straightens out, as they will be looking for a shorter approach into a narrow green that is slightly elevated.

Hole 2 (Par 4, 502 yards) – This hole usually plays as a Par 5 in the pro-am event, and its sheer length will test most players in the field this week with an approach of around 200 yards. The green is kidney-shaped with bunkers on both sides and making par here will be a success.

Hole 3 (Par 4, 404 yards) – A draw off the tee, a fade into the green: the third hole tests the shot shaping skills of the players. Doglegging left from the tee, an approach is played into a green that slopes from right to left, with cavernous bunkers protecting the front side.

Hole 4 (Par 4, 331 yards) – At this yardage you might think the fourth is driveable, but fairway access to the green is the narrowest of paths and besides: the ocean will catch the players’ eye along the right-hand side. More likely is a long iron over the bunker that patrols the middle of the fairway, followed by a wedge in. One of the few genuine birdie opportunities on the course.

Hole 5 (Par 3, 195 yards) – Normally the wind blows in directly off the ocean, but it tends to swirl on the fifth and that makes shot selection tricky. There’s only a small portion of the green to aim for too, with anything short or left tending to run off into the bunker or back onto the fairway.

Hole 6 (Par 5, 523 yards) – One of the most picturesque holes on the layout, driver has to be taken here to have any real chance of finding the elevated green in two. The approach shot is played into a landing zone on top of a cliff, where anything wayward is likely to find sand or water. One of the most iconic holes in golf.

Hole 7 (Par 3, 109 yards) – An altitude tee box hitting into a small green with bunkers on all sides. Oh, and don’t forget the cross-wind, which requires players to hit clubs from wedge to 6-iron depending on its stiffness and direction.

Hole 8 (Par 4, 428 yards) – Here’s a blind tee shot, where the bravest will take wood or driving iron, where fairway width is at a minimum. Players then hit an iron across a chasm in the cliffs, over the ocean and into a green that slopes dramatically from front to back.

Hole 9 (Par 4, 505 yards) – Another sizeable Par 4, if the players give their tee shot a whack they can reach the downslope in the fairway, which will force their ball as much as 50 yards closer to the green. The front of the green is protected by an extreme pot bunker, and the ocean once again prowls the right-hand perimeter of the hole.

Hole 10 (Par 4, 495 yards) – This is the last of the first set of holes flanked by the ocean along Carmel Bay. It’s another long par 4 with a fairway that slopes extensively from left to right – anything in the right half will almost certainly feed into the rough. This is one of the more receptive greens on the course, so it’s all about shot placement off the tee here.

Hole 11 (Par 4, 390 yards) – Good news: the wind is generally helpful off the tee. Bad news: the landing zone is just 28 yards wide. There’s then an uphill approach into a minute, elevated green, of which only the left half is visible from the fairway.

Hole 12 (Par 3, 202 yards) – This saucer-shaped green is not exactly receptive, and only those who approach from a great height will be able to hold it. Any hard bounces will sail into the bunkers or rough behind the green.

Hole 13 (Par 4, 445 yards) – This hole plays almost exclusively uphill, so you can add some length to the published yardage. The green is one of the biggest on the course but also one of the fastest, and the protective bunker to the right has been extended for the US Open.

Hole 14 (Par 5, 580 yards) – This dogleg right has a collection of bunkers to the right of the fairway, and the approach can be blindsided by ‘Palmer’s tree’ and a bunker to the front of the green that is devilishly located.

Hole 15 (Par 4, 397 yards) – Another of the most aesthetically-pleasing holes, the approach is playing into a stunning backdrop. Don’t take your eye off the ball though: the green features a number of shelves and run-off areas that will reject any approaches not on the perfect line.

Hole 16 (Par 4, 403 yards) – A right-to-left tee shot will need to be played into another sloping fairway. If you can hold the top portion, you will have the right angle to approach into a green that is framed by rare trees. Drive too far and you will end up in all sorts of trouble.

Hole 17 (Par 3, 208 yards) – Home of the famous hourglass green, which features staggering slopes and some rather horrendous pin positions, depending on how well officials have slept the night before. The bunker to the left is also the biggest on the estate.

Hole 18 (Par 5, 543 yards) – Where our champion will be crowned. Will they hit over the water and give themselves a chance of reaching the green in two, or play it safe and tuck up for a birdie opportunity? A beautiful hole framed by the ocean which could be where dreams are made or shattered.

People walk on the beach as Tiger Woods of the United States walks…

People walk on the beach as Tiger Woods of the United States walks across the ninth green during a practice round prior to the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach Golf Links on June 10, 2019 in Pebble… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Pebble Beach, CA

The lead-in to Thursday’s first tee should be dry, and so conditions should remain nice and fast for the rest of the week.

Thursday will be sunny but cool at around 64°F. Wind speeds are set at 13 mph, with gusts reaching 22 mph.

It should be more of the same on Friday, with cloudy spells and sunny intervals and temperatures around 62°F. Wind speeds are at 15 mph, with gusts reaching a testing 26 mph.

Without wanting to sound like a broken record, the weekend should be much the same according to the forecast: there will be cloud and a rare glimpse of the sun, with temperatures at around the 64°F mark. The wind could peak at 18 mph, with gusts sprawling off the ocean that are even harsher.

Last Year’s Results from the US Open

Brooks Koepka doubled up to win his second US Open title at Shinnecock Hills in New York 12 months ago.

Nobody finished under par at the Big Apple’s wind showed its teeth, with Koepka’s +1 enough to see him home from Tommy Fleetwood (+2) and Dustin Johnson (+3).

The die was cast from the get-go with only four players recording a first round under par: Johnson, Henley, Poulter and Piercy those responsible.

And DJ opened up a seemingly cavernous four-shot lead at the halfway stage, with Piercy and Charley Hoffman back on level par.

Saturday, moving day, was aptly named, with 66s from Tony Finau and Daniel Berger giving them a share of the 54-hole lead. DJ’s disastrous 77 left him tied with the aforementioned duo and the dangerous Koepka atop the leaderboard.

Finau and Berger played the front nine over par on Sunday, ending their hopes, while Johnson – senses scrambled after his Saturday meltdown – played all 18 holes in par.

Tommy Fleetwood carded an unbelievable round of 63 to mount the pressure on Koepka, but the defending champion showed his class, birdieing three of the opening five holes to break the back of this tournament and claim yet another major crown.

Brooks Koepka poses with the Wanamaker trophy, Player of the Year…

Brooks Koepka poses with the Wanamaker trophy, Player of the Year trophy and the US Open trophies during the Player of the Year ceremony at The Bear’s Club on October 9, 2018 in Jupiter, Florida. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the US Open this Week

This is major week and so that means we’re talking major money with this week’s slate of contests. If you’ve built a formidable bankroll, now is the time to use it because smart players have a real advantage when drafting their roster at a course as classical as Pebble Beach.

• PGA $3.5M Fantasy Golf Millionaire: There are two million dollar contests this week, and there’s no reason not to get involved with high and low budgets catered for. This one pays a milly to the winner for a $100 entry: the top-100 win $1k or more.
• PGA $1M Return to the Beach: The second of the seven-figure contests, this one features a top prize of $250k for your $10 entry. There are some excellent consolation prizes too, and the top 25% or so of players get a payout of some kind.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the US Open

Aside from the Masters, it is rare for us to have such a library of information to call upon at a major.

As mentioned, the Pebble Beach Links we see for the annual AT&T event is not the same venue we will see this week, but the basic parameters are the same.

It’s a layout where driving distance, as a rule, is of an irrelevance, with hitting fairways much more important. There are lots of chances to take iron off the tee, so you would like to think that the general Driving Accuracy percentage will be higher than normal – not that the lines off the tee are easy by any means.

The real danger at Pebble Beach is on approach, where the tiny greens are protected by hazards. Miss the green and you are in a whole heap of trouble, and even making bogey will be a success.

Pebble Beach is a grind, the perfect US Open layout, which will be supported by a wind-heavy forecast this week. Hitting those low-boring irons and woods off the tee could be crucial, but there’s lots to be said for hitting high approaches to land softly on fast greens – it’s a real conundrum for the players.

With a winning score around level par expected, this could be one of those weeks where the leaderboard is made up of unusual names who are able to grind out par through sheer will alone. A lots of the bomb-and-gauge youngsters, used to participating in birdie fests, are likely to fall by the wayside.

This week we’re looking for shred operators who have a healthy bank of history at Pebble Beach to call upon; that might just prove crucial in the final shake-up.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the US Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the US Open

Top Tier Pick #1:  

Dustin Johnson (Odds: 9/1, FPPG: 91.5, GPFP: 117.98 Salary: $11,300)

There isn’t anyone in the field with the history at Pebble Beach of Dustin Johnson.

At the US Open of 2010, DJ was three shots clear with a round to play before making one of his almighty cock-ups that he was famed for at the time. Remember, he has gone on to become one of the most prolific winners in world golf since that point.

That effort at Pebble Beach came after he won the pro-am event here in back-to-back years in 2009 and ’10, and he has gone on to record five top-five finishes here since!

With that course history, you might expect Johnson to be high owned, which is not something sharp gamers particularly savor. It’s true, but consider the impact of McIlroy’s win at the Canadian last week: there will be plenty that draft him considering that DJ was down the leaderboard in Ontario.

But we’re not too concerned: he gained strokes on the field from tee-to-green after a poor opening round, and that tells us he is striking the ball well enough as a foundation for what is surely his favorite stomping ground in golf.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 1st
• Bogey Avoidance – 3rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 4th

Top-Tier Pick #2:  

Matt Kuchar (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 84.5, GPFP: 105.66 Salary: $8,500)

Despite a fairly mixed record at Pebble Beach, surely Matt Kuchar 2.0 has a great chance this week?

With three top-10s in the British Open, we know that the Links are no problem to him – who can forget that famous duel with Jordan Spieth at Royal Birkdale?

And remember, this is Kooch as a man reborn: a player who has finished inside the top-10 in 50% of his starts this season, including two wins and a pair of runners-up finishes.

His sportsbooks odds and DK price are almost wholly offensive, and for a player who thrives in the grind there’s no doubt that Kuchar is better-placed than most in this field to land what would be his first major victory.

Key Stats:

• Bogey Avoidance – 2nd
• Scrambling – 8th
• SG: Approach – 9th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:  

Brandt Snedeker (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 68.1, GPFP: 69.42 Salary: $7,500)

Despite being a multiple-time winner on the PGA TOUR, one of the most memorable performances of Brandt Snedeker’s career came at Chambers Bay in 2015, when he battled horrendous conditions to contest that year’s US Open crown.

It wasn’t to be in the end, but that would be the fourth of what is now five US Open top-10 finishes.

Make it hard, that’s what Sneds wants. His short game mastery is almost second to none.

His ingenuity around the greens has led to a pair of wins at Torrey Pines in the past as part of the pro-am event, and he’s also a two-time champion of the Farmers Insurance Open also on the West Coast. Snedeker is right at home on Poa Annua.

Sneds’ T4 finish at the Canadian Open was the culmination of some fine form of late, and right now he looks as well poised as ever to finally win a major title.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 2nd
• SG: Putting – 8th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 41st

Mid-Tier Pick #2: 

Graeme McDowell (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 67.7, GPFP: 54.14 Salary: $7,300)

After months of hard toil, Graeme McDowell has achieved what he set out to do all those weeks ago.

By virtue of finishing inside the top-10 at the Canadian Open, he has qualified for the British Open later in the summer, which will be played in the town of his birth – and where he still calls home – Portrush.

What a feeling that must be, and the weight off his shoulders could well lend itself to a relaxed performance this week at a layout where he has won before.

The Irishman won that infamous US Open here back in 2010, and has played well at Pebble Beach on a couple of occasions suit.

When conditions are right, McDowell can still hang – he won the Corales Puntacana and banked T7 and T11 at the Texas Open and RSM Classic, and he won’t enjoy himself more on a golf course than he does at Pebble Beach.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 5th
• Scoring Average – 29th
• Scrambling – 33rd

Low-Tier Pick: 

Lucas Glover (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 57.0, GPFP: 77.77 Salary: $7,000)

We’ve already written that this could be the week where a number of ‘surprise’ names feature prominently on the leaderboard, and Lucas Glover could probably be listed in that bracket.

He’s a former US Open champion of course, winning at Bethpage Black in 2009, but he’s only showed glimpses of that form in the subsequent decade.

But his neat-and-tidy game looks ideally suited to Pebble Beach, where has finished 7-11 in his last two trips, and we’re willing to wager another decent showing is on the cards.

Glover will grind his way around the course with no heroics, and it’s an approach that should pay dividends.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 3rd
• Bogey Avoidance – 4th
• Scoring Average – 17th

Sleeper Pick for the US Open

Webb Simpson (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 77.3, GPFP: 85.09 Salary: $7,700)

With no real course form to speak of at Pebble Beach, you can bet your bottom dollar that Webb Simpson gets overlooked this week.

But this is a player who really thrives at hard courses where the greens are smaller than average, which allows his tidy tee-to-green game to thrive: hence why he is both a US Open and PLAYERS Championship winner in the past.

His T2 at the Canadian Open last week follows a T5 at the Masters as well as a slew of other top-10 finishes this term. Be under no illusion, on his day Simpson is one of the very best around, and he should not be forgotten at such an agreeable salary this week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 4th
• Bogey Avoidance – 5th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 12th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the US Open

Aaron Baddeley (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 63.3, GPFP: 51.93 Salary: $6,700)

If you’re looking for a real deep-dive this week, gamers might be rewarded with a solid showing from Aaron Baddeley.

Here’s a man with four top-30 finishes to his name in the US Open, and for whom tests like this suit perfectly.

Any opportunity to keep the driver sheathed suits, as does a chance to show off his sublime short game which has a habit of keeping him out of trouble – confirmed by that Bogey Avoidance ranking.

As an Australian he is comfortable in a howling wind and in playing on firm, fast greens, and while it would be a shock of the ages if Baddeley somehow won this week, he’s still a value play who can well out-perform his lowly salary.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 4th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 6th
• Bogey Avoidance – 9th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.33%” bar_text=”7 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”19.52%” bar_text=”41 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”34.28%” bar_text=”72 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”13.33%” bar_text=”4 out of 30 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”6.67%” bar_text=”2 out of 30 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”74.29%” bar_text=”156 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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