Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – John Deere Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the John Deere Classic

2019 John Deere Classic Fantasy Preview

If you were in any doubt that there is something of a changing of the guard in world golf right now, last week’s leaderboard at the 3M Open was proof positive.

So Tiger might still be snagging majors and Matt Kuchar might be leading the FedExCup standings, but the kids were alright at TPC Twin Cities as Matt Wolff, Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa – all of whom have been on the planet for 25 years or fewer – did battle down the back nine.

DeChambeau’s incredible eagle on 18 appeared to have given him yet another title in a whirlwind career so far, but he hadn’t counted on the youthful naivety of Wolff, who at 20 does not have the scar tissue of losing out at the elite-level.

And that’s perhaps why he flushed his approach into 18 to a makeable 25-foot, before nervelessly draining that eagle putt to land his maiden PGA TOUR win in just his third start as a professional.

And here’s a stat, with a hat tip to Justin Ray via Twitter: seven players have now won on Tour prior to their 21st birthday. Six of them – Seve, Raymond Floyd, Tiger, Phil, McIlroy and Spieth – have gone on to become multiple major problems.

There truly is a Wolff at the door, perhaps….

Onwards we go, and just a week shy of the British Open many of the great and good of world golf have packed their bags and are off to Scotland for some Links prep at the Renaissance Club.

But for those left behind, there is still a fantastic opportunity to bag a place in that British Open field with the highest finisher not already exempt punching their ticket to Royal Portrush.

In a weak field and at a birdie-fest layout that is there to be ripped to shreds, there will be plenty of tension come Sunday at the John Deere Classic.

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Last Week’s Fantasy Results

It was Wolff’s eagle putt that bumped our Top Pick Bryson to the T2 spot alongside our Sleeper Report pick Collin Morikawa. 

Along with those two runner-up finishers, we had Wyndham Clark (T5) and Brian Harman (T7) to help round out our rosters last week.

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The 2019 John Deere Classic Field

With all due respect to the tournament and those involved, this has the feel of an alternate event this week.

The most decorated player in the field is Zach Johnson, who also happens to sit on the JDC board of directors and who has a stellar record at Deere Run.

Names like Charles Howell III, Kyle Stanley and Ryan Moore – all outstanding golfers no less – hardly get the juices flowing, and so it might be left to the young guns once more to get the spectating galleries on their feet.

Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Matt Wolff….this could be the future of golf right here, and it will be exciting to see them going at it once. Indeed, Wolff can compare his idiosyncratic swing of the club to that of YouTube sensation Ho Sung Choi, the rubber-limbed Korean who has been invited over by the sponsors.

Elsewhere, Michael Kim faces the unlikely task of becoming the first back-to-back champion here since Steve Stricker’s historic three-peat: he hasn’t made a cut since the Safeway Open!

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This Week’s Course Preview

Admittedly it is a picturesque slice of eye candy, but in many ways there is absolutely nothing that distinguishes TPC Deere Run from any other municipal parkland track.

It’s simply too easy – with all due respect, if Michael Kim can take you for -27 in 72 holes something has gone wrong in the set-up, and winning scores down the years have generally been topside of -20.

And with rounds of 59 (Paul Goydos) and 60 made here in recent memory, you know straight off the bat that there is nothing to fear.

It’s no big surprise, really, given that the real estate features just 78 bunkers – the vast majority of which are avoidable, and that water is in play on just five holes. 

The Bentgrass greens, which are a decent size, are fairly flat and run at a smooth 11 on the stimpmeter.

Indeed, the only thing that could put the players off their stride is if a freak weather situation descended on Silvis, Illinois.

In a typical year at Deere Run, 13 of the holes play at an average of under par, and so really we are once again looking at a birdie-fest putting contest: it’s no wonder that Kim ranked first for SG: Putting 12 months ago.

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Weather Forecast for Silvis, IL

The weather is the chief form of defense at TPC Deere Run, and there is absolutely nothing for the players to worry about on that front this week according to the forecast.

The temperatures are up – averaging 80-91°F across the week, and the sun is expected to shine across all four days to help deliver some glorious conditions.

The wind looks set to be a minimal factor elsewhere. From a high of 13 mph on Thursday, the breeze looks set to drop to 8 mph by Sunday.

All in all, these are premium conditions for the field to take this stretch to the cleaners.

Last Year’s Results from the John Deere Classic

There were no doubt cries of jubilation as the 200/1 shot Michael Kim somehow recorded an eight-stroke victory over the field 12 months ago.

The then 24-year-old had missed five of his preceding six cuts prior to his win, but hey when do stupid things like form and confidence matter in golf?

He opened up with a round of 63 in perfect scoring conditions and never looked back, closing out with 64-64-66 to ensure that nobody else even got a sniff of the W.

In the end, there was a four-way tie for second: Francesco Molinari, just a couple of weeks shy of his British Open triumph, in a dead heat with Bronson Burgoon, Sam Ryder and Joel Dahmen.

Round of the week honors went to Burgoon, Matt Jones and Steve Wheatcroft, who all posted 62s to once again confirm how scoreable TPC Deere Run is.

No Title

SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2018 John Deere Classic, Michael Kim wins his first PGA TOUR event by a record-setting eight stroke margin. The John Deere classic returns to TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the John Deere Classic this Week

It’s accumulation time again this week, what with the British Open just a week away. You can guarantee that the DFS sites are going to serve up something special for the last major of the year, so let’s get our tanks on the lawn with a good week here.

• PGA $600k Drive the Green: While the idea is about accumulation this week, we can still throw our hat into the ring for the big prize. The winner banks $100k for a $5 entry – we can but dream – and there’s lots of chances to add some much-needed funds to our British Open bank.
• PGA $12k 8-Iron: With the top 20% of teams near-enough doubling your $8 stake, and a handy top prize of $1,200 to dream about, this 1764 team contest offers up plenty of earning potential.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the John Deere Classic

Quite simply, we’re expecting the player with the hottest putter to prevail this week.

There is nothing in the stats historically to separate the field. You can be long and wayward off the tee or short and accurate, it really doesn’t seem to make a difference. The fairways are generous enough and the rough is typically scorched by the hot weather at this time of year.

The greens are a good size too, so we’re expecting high GIR numbers with few dancefloors missed by even the most errant of approaches.

So yes: the flat stick is key this week. Whoever putts the best from inside 20 feet will surely seal the deal!

The likes of Jordan Spieth (back then at least), Ryan Moore and Brian Harman – all former winners here – are or were excellent putters, and we know that Bryson DeChambeau, the 2017 champion, can get hot on the greens.

And Michael Kim ranked first for Strokes Gained: Putting in the rarest and most unpredictable of victories.

That’s about your lot, really. We’re expecting form to carry over from TPC Twin Cities last week, another Bentgrass-laid track where the birdies were flying in, and that is perhaps the key narrative.

Normally in birdie-fests we’d say that current form is key, but as Michael Kim proved 12 months ago sometimes when it’s your week anything can happen regardless of what’s gone before!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the John Deere Classic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the John Deere Classic

Top Tier Pick #1:  

Collin Morikawa (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 85.0, GPFP: 68.0 Salary: $10,700)

It will seem staggering to most that we are willing to risk the bulk of our salary cap on this largely untested youngster.

But when the talent is there, and the form is there, it is hard to overlook these young pups no matter how inexperienced they may be.

Morikawa was very much in the hunt at the 3M Open, just missing out when Wolff and DeChambeau went eagle shooting, but there were plenty of positive signs for the 22-year-old as he ranked second for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and first for SG: Approach.

Deere Run is a layout that will suit Morikawa to a tee. He will, if he carries on where he left off, flush those irons close, and if he can make some knee-knocking putts he could follow Wolff into the winner’s enclosure.

He’s a former All American with a penchant for winning, so getting over the line won’t present any problems.

Key Stats:

• (None available)

Top-Tier Pick #2:  

Joaquin Niemann (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 60.7, GPFP: 48.53 Salary: $10,200)

Considered one of the most talented youngsters in world golf last season, Niemann has gone somewhat under the radar this time around.

But the Tour’s venture north has coincided with a return to his best golf, and that’s no coincidence: the Chilean has made a habit of playing his best on these Bentgrass surfaces.

Consecutive T5s at the Travelers Championship and Rocket Mortgage Classic were backed by T23 at the 3M Open last week; the meat in his four-round sandwich there being 63-65.

Five of his last twelve rounds have been 66 or better – a staggering achievement – and so going low will present no problems for the 20-year-old.

No doubt spurred on by Wolff’s efforts last week, Niemann could finally land his long-awaited maiden title in Illinois.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 26th
• Total Driving – 32nd
• Total Birdies – 34th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:  

Vaughn Taylor (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 62.1, GPFP: 49.66 Salary: $7,700)

There are just some ‘unfashionable’ players out there who rarely get any love from DFS gamers and bettors.

But Vaughn Taylor often brigs excellent value for money; especially in daily fantasy, thanks to 16 cuts made from 23 starts at routinely sub $7,000 prices.

Taylor tends to be at his best in easy birdie-fests – unsurprising for a guy who ranks fourth on Tour for most rounds in the 60s – and he’ll need a few more of those this week to contend.

But why not: he has previous at Deere Run, and was solo fourth in his penultimate start in the Travelers Championship, where he compiled rounds of 65 and 66.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 5th
• Total Birdies – 12th
• Driving Accuracy – 28th

Mid-Tier Pick #2: 

Ryan Armour (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 54.4, GPFP: 43.54 Salary: $7,300)

Another under-the-radar sort is Ryan Armour, whose recent formline of 42-46-54 does not have ‘winner’ written large and in bold type.

But he continues to shoot red numbers, ranking 23rd on Tour for Total Birdies, and the genesis of that – particularly lately – has been some red-hot putting.

Armour will find lots of fairways and make plenty of putts at Deere Run this week; it’s a combination we’d like to think will serve him very nicely indeed.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 23rd
• Greens in Regulation – 64th
• SG: Putting – 79th

Low-Tier Pick: 

Johnson Wagner (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 60.9, GPFP: 48.74 Salary: $7,200)

There aren’t many players in the field with consistently good form year on year at Deere Run.

But Wagner is unmistakably one of them, with a formline that reads 16-MC-5-5-7 in the past five years alone.

It’s curious consistency from one of the PGA TOUR’s journeymen, but the layout clearly suits his eye. And the fact he’s an outstanding putter is clearly an advantage here.

Form has come and gone this season, as is often the case for Wagner, but he posted a 64 in among a trio of 69s at the 3M Open, and his putting stats were once again at an elite level.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 7th
• SG: Putting – 23rd
• Birdie Average – 55th

Sleeper Pick for the John Deere Classic

Joel Dahmen (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 56.2, GPFP: 48.62 Salary: $7,600)

Dahmen courted controversy at the Quicken Loans National when he ‘called out’ playing partner Sung Kang for a possibly contentious hazard call, but he didn’t seem to let it affect him at the Greenbrier.

He finished T5, ranked second for SG: Tee-to-Green and only two players found more greens in regulation, and so he can reflect upon the best week of his PGA TOUR career to date.

The 30-year-old has collected six top-25 finishes in his last eight starts, and you wonder if that consistency will be rewarded at an easy TPC Deere Run this week.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 22nd
• Total Birdies – 49th
• SG: Approach – 60th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the John Deere Classic

Joey Garber (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 48.2, GPFP: 38.57 Salary: $7,300)

There’s been a string of good form from Joey Garber of late – he has certainly outperformed his often-meager salary – and so he is worth a look this week as a sleeper option.

Top 30s at the Byron Nelson, Canadian Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic were followed by T7 at the 3M Open last week, where he closed out with a trio of 65s – in this company, that is eye-catching form.

His fourth round putting stats were particularly exciting, and if he can carry that hot flat stick to Illinois then another top-10 is certainly a possibility.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 51st
• Scrambling – 51st
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 63rd

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.46%” bar_text=”9 out of 238 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”19.48%” bar_text=”45 out of 238 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”34.87%” bar_text=”83 out of 238 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”14.71%” bar_text=”5 out of 34 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”8.82%” bar_text=”3 out of 34 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”74.36%” bar_text=”177 out of 238 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram