Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2019 TOUR Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the TOUR Championship

2019 TOUR Championship Fantasy Preview

You hadn’t forgotten about Justin Thomas, had you?

Okay, so his 2019 campaign has not been stellar by his own incredible standards, but JT has well and truly forced his way into the reckoning with a dominant victory in the BMW Championship last week.

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He won by three from Patrick Cantlay – aided by a spectacular third round of 61 – to land the trophy and also finish in first place in the FedExCup standings.

Right, eyes down and look in, because you’re going to need to know how the revised TOUR Championship works.

The PGA TOUR has changed the nature of the traditional season curtain call by reflecting the final FedExCup standings (after the BMW Championship) into a stroke handicap at East Lake.

So, prior to a ball being hit this week, the leaderboard looks something like this:

Thomas -10; P. Cantlay -8; B. Koepka -7; P. Reed -6; R. McIlroy -5; J. Rahm, M. Kuchar, X. Schauffele, A. Ancer -4; G. Woodland, T. Finau, A. Scott, D. Johnson, H. Matsuyama -3; P. Casey, J. Rose, B. Snedeker, R. Fowler, K. Kisner -2; M. Leishman, T. Fleetwood, C. Conners, S. Im, C. Reavie -1; B. DeChambeau, L.Oosthuizen, C. Howell III, L. Glover, J. Kokrak Evens.

Whoever wins the TOUR Championship, with traditional strokeplay scoring factored into this leaderboard, also wins the FedExCup.

It’s not a format that suits everyone, but at least it makes a tad exciting, with say seven or eight players having a legitimate claim of winning the lot.

As far as our daily fantasy gaming is concerned, nothing in essence changes. The scoring system is still the same, both in terms of points for birdies etc and in terms of bonuses for finishing position.

On DraftKings, for example, Justin Thomas is priced at $15,500 and then the rest re largely priced on their current position in the standings, right down to poor old Charles Howell III at $5,000.

Clearly, there’s an extra element of strategy needed to take care of business at East Lake this week!

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Not a bad week overall for our squad, having four of our main picks hit the Top 11 including Cantlay (2), Rahm (T5), Connors (T7), and Im (T11).   

Now we narrow down to 30 in the field, and our goal this week is to get all 7 players … well, inside the Top 7! Let’s close this things out strong.

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And don’t forget, the first event of the fall season kicks off on Sept 12th at The Greenbrier. 

The 2019 TOUR Championship Field

With some high-profile absentees from the field this week, there isn’t a huge amount of history around regarding the FedExCup and/or those who have enjoyed glory at East Lake.

Only four men left in the field – Justin Rose, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Brandt Snedeker – have previously won the FedExCup, while there is only a quartet of players who have triumphed at East Lake: McIlroy, Snedeker, Xander Schauffele and Adam Scott.

New ground could be trodden by any number of the 30 in the field here then, although you suspect that only those within five shots of the lead – Thomas, McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed and Brooks Koepka – have a realistic shot of returning from Atlanta, Georgia with the silverware and the paycheck.

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This Week’s Course Preview

As one of the oldest courses on the PGA TOUR rotation, it is perhaps fitting that East Lake plays host to arguably the most important regular season event on the circuit.

Built in 1904, this Par 70 layout has been tweaked from time to time by the likes of Donald Ross, George Cobb and Rees Jones, and today it still has the feel of a ‘championship’ golf course.

By that, we mean that victory won’t come easy this week – the winner will have to grind out a score, but at the same time we’re not talking old-school US Open complexity either.

When the FedExCup finale made East Lake its permanent home in 2007, the layout was toughened further to ensure it was up to the demands of hosting the best players in the business.

A switch to Bermuda on the greens has also upped the ante as far as difficulty is concerned; in the space of a decade the winning mark has decreased from Tiger’s -23 in 2007 to -12 when Schauffele took the spoils ten years later.

Another factor keeping scores low is that Par 70 classification, with just two Par 5s for the players to exploit. One of those is the closing hole too, and it is by no means an assured birdie or better.

At 7,385 yards, this is a long golf course too, with several 450+ yard Par 4s to keep the field honest.

There are trees lining the fairways, and while not Medinah levels these could still be a factor. Water is in play on six holes too, but generally speaking there isn’t too much danger off the tee with average width fairways lined by agreeable enough rough.

The primary defense are the greens, which run slick (when they’re not wet!) and feature various tiers and shelves as well as fiercely mown run-off areas. Find the right part of the green on approach….or else.

East Lake is your archetypal second shot golf course, and our winner this week will certainly have earned their corn.

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Weather Forecast for Atlanta, GA

Rain, rain and more rain: that’s the vibe this week.

Fire up your weather prediction app of your choice and you will see it laid bare: scattered thunderstorms and rainfall for all four days of this event.

Indeed, there’s little else to say: temperatures will range from 82°F to 89°F, with the wind at a modest 7-8 mph.

In soft conditions, East Lake should play a whole bunch easier.

Last Year’s Results from the TOUR Championship

Confirmation of Tiger Woods’ renaissance as an elite-level golfer was signed, sealed and delivered at the Masters this year, and yet somehow it was his triumph at the TOUR Championship 12 months ago that will live long in the memory.

The scenes on the 72nd hole, where it seemed the whole of Atlanta had gathered to watch the big cat get back into the winner’s circle, were incredible – proof positive that this sport has the ability to thrill even as its unique character continues to change.

Woods played his final round in 72, but it was enough – plenty in fact – to secure a two-shot victory over Billy Horschel and complete one of sport’s most unlikely comebacks.

He led from the get-go, by and large, with an opening 66 seeing him just one shot shy of Rickie Fowler and Gary Woodland on Thursday.

Woods and Justin Rose put their feet down to lead by two after 36 holes, and it was the former who would press on with a mesmeric 65 in round three.

As anticipation mounted, the only person who didn’t seem to be nervous was Tiger himself, as in testing conditions he played the front nine in -1 to allay any fears that the huge crowds would not get the result they wanted.

A calm and measured five on the last was enough to bring the house down.

Tiger Woods wins TOUR Championship for 80th victory on PGA TOUR 2018

SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2018 TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club, Tiger Woods shoots a final-round 71 to claim his 80th win on the PGA TOUR, his first since 2013.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the TOUR Championship this Week

So here we are: our last chance to win some big bucks this season. Remember the unique rules this week, but don’t be afraid to enter some of the major cash events as we all embark on this new TOUR Championship learning curve.

• PGA $800k Drive-the-Green: The big money contest comes in the form of this $5 extravaganza, where the winner will cop a handsome $200k. There’s lots of really handy consolation prizes too, so the worst case scenario is that you go into the Fall with a handy bankroll to play with.
• PGA $100k Driver: A single-entry contest, with these unique rules, will really require you to use your grey matter in working out who are the value plays this week, but this risky tournament offers a top prize of $20k with the top 25% of players doubling their money, so it’s a case of risk-and-reward too.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the TOUR Championship

For the first time, motivation could be a key factor at East Lake.

If you are one of the guys sitting at level par – a cool ten shots behind Thomas – what is making you want to really grind it out this week? Yes, there’s increased prize money for each place you finish up the leaderboard, but none of these guys are short of a buck or two.

Even if East Lake plays soft and more receptive than normal due to the rain, realistically you would say only those down to -4 can win the darn thing – the rest of the field will have to pray that everyone above them has a serious off-day or two.

So we need to be focusing our attention on those towards the head of the leaderboard, whom we can handicap nicely based on their recent trends, form on Bermuda and ability to graft out a score when only a pair of Par 5s – and not easy ones at that – are available.

Ordinarily, East Lake provides a stern test of short game, given how quick the greens are and the challenges they provide in simply holding your ball on them, let alone finding the right quadrant to putt from.

But with plenty of rain around in Atlanta, that task could be made somewhat easy, and instead we should be focusing on those capable of hitting long irons to die for.

And, naturally, we need to be drafting players that have that ‘major’ class about them. Because, let’s face it, this may not be a major event in name, but the prestige and prize money on offer certainly gives it that sort of vibe.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the TOUR Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the TOUR Championship

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Brooks Koepka (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 85.5, GPFP: 111.15 Salary: $12,200)

Let’s not beat about the bush here: Justin Thomas will probably close out victory at East Lake.

He’s in form, is a major winner and a multiple champion on the PGA TOUR and he has three top-10s at East Lake in as many trips. Oh, and JT has a two-shot cushion to work with.

But the unique format piles the pressure onto him, so let’s see if we can get a winner through the back door in this inaugural razzmatazz-style TOUR Championship decider.

The man most likely too? For our money it’s Brooks Koepka, who is somebody that possesses the timing of knowing when to turn on his A-game.

With four majors to his name we don’t have to worry about Brooks’ ability to take care of business, and he remains undoubtedly one of the best long iron-strikers in world golf.

As a two-time US Open champ we know he can grind, and the sight of Koepka in full flow in your rear view mirror might just be enough to give JT and co the shakes.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 1st
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th

Top-Tier Pick #2:  

Jon Rahm (Odds: 11/1, FPPG: 87.7, GPFP: 99.12 Salary: $9,900)

To be completely honest, if East Lake was completely dry and bathed in sunshine we probably wouldn’t have drafted Jon Rahm.

We remain unconvinced by Spaniard at tricky layouts where he has a habit of getting frustrated: with himself, his caddie, course officials and anybody else for that matter.

But with rain making East Lake a bit more enjoyable to pay for the short-tempered, there is a score to be made.

Rahm will start six shots shy of Thomas, but he won’t shy away from the challenge, and indeed he will positively relish in it if he can get those precision irons behaving appropriately.

A proven winner, Rahm fits the profile of a FedExCup champion, and it’s not impossible that 2019 could be his first glimpse of the title.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 6th
• Approaches from 200-225 yards – 8th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:  

Dustin Johnson (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 83.3, GPFP: 106.56 Salary: $8,400)

The sportsbooks, who typically know a thing or two about golf, rank Dustin Johnson as the player sixth most likely to shoot the lowest strokeplay score at East Lake this week (without the handicap).

That would have been shorter still but for a perceived lack of form from DJ, but even so at $8,400 we have to take a chance on a guy who could spark into life at any time.

There’s not much in the recent form bank to get excited about – bar an opening 63 at the Northern Trust – but Johnson is one of the most consistent around when it comes to playing East Lake: four top-5s and a top-10 in his last six trips is testament to that.

The thrill is in knowing he could suddenly burst into form at any given time at this layout….

Key Stats:

• SG: Total – 5th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 6th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 11th

Mid-Tier Pick #2: 

Justin Rose (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 78.9, GPFP: 83.64 Salary: $6,900)

Justin Rose at $6,900!?

It seems utterly absurd, of course, but that’s just the way the season has panned out for the Englishman and why he finds himself with a limited chance of defending his FedExCup crown.

After a tricky patch in which he struggled for form after switching club manufacturers, Rose has shown signs lately of his best: T3 at the US Open, solo 11 at the St Jude WGC Invitational and T10 at the Northern Trust.

If he can summon up the motivation in Atlanta, Rose is a prime candidate to outperform his meager salary.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 7th
• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 8th
• Scoring Average – 9th

Low-Tier Pick: 

Jason Kokrak (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 74.9, GPFP: 92.83 Salary: $5,300)

It would be possibly the greatest sporting miracle ever if Jason Kokrak were to win the TOUR Championship from such a disadvantageous position, but clearly we can’t draft a roster where all six players have a golden chance of winning.

It’s simply not possible under the new scoring format, and so instead for our low-tier pick we need to pick the guy we think can advance his score the most.

The 34-year-old has been in excellent form of late with a string of 19-12-6 in his last three starts, and at a course like East Lake his brilliance with a long iron in hand does give him a notable advantage.

A confirmed lover of Bermuda, Kokrak won’t win this event but he can certainly improve his score at the expense of others.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 200-225 yards – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 17th
• SG: Total – 19th

Sleeper Pick for the TOUR Championship

Paul Casey (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 71.2, GPFP: 82.57 Salary: $7,500)

As somebody with a near flawless record at East Lake, Paul Casey immediately jumps onto the shortlist.

The Englishman has served up four top-five finishes at this slice of real estate, and that’s no great surprise given that tee-to-green control is very much the watchword here.

At -2 on the leaderboard, Casey will know that if he can get off to a fast start he’s not completely out of the running for the title, and that alone may be the motivation required for him to deliver his best.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 7th
• SG: Total – 12th
• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 33rd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the TOUR Championship

Corey Conners (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 57.7, GPFP: 60.02 Salary: $6,100)

In time, this young Canadian may develop into one of the best players in the world, and we will all be laughing at the time we could draft him for $6,100.

His breakthrough season has already yielded a maiden title and four top-10s in total, so Conners can already lay claim to being one of the most consistent in the business.

His ball-striking is outstanding, and he might just take nicely to East Lake with those weapons in his bag – potentially soft conditions only add to his likability factor this week.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 2nd
• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 5th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 23rd

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.93%” bar_text=”11 out of 280 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”20.35%” bar_text=”57 out of 280 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”36.07%” bar_text=”101 out of 280 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”12.50%” bar_text=”5 out of 40 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”12.50%” bar_text=”5 out of 40 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”75.35%” bar_text=”211 out of 280 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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